2015 Global change, Energy architecture, Sustainability and Leadership open conversation series sslidepack dublin
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Global Change, Energy & Sustainability and Leadership Open conversation series- 2015 Global Outreach
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2015 Global change, Energy architecture, Sustainability and Leadership open conversation series sslidepack dublin
- 1. 2015 Year of Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable Development post-2015 Agenda Global Change, Energy & Sustainability and our Leadership 24 February 2015- Dublin Founder Energy For One World Adriaan Kamp
- 2. Welcome to The After-Party! (Of Trinity College Green Week)
- 3. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved “2015 can be a year for history. It can be the year that we put the world on the path to end extreme poverty; the year we place sustainability in the heart of our future; and the year that we agree that every person should be able to lead a life of dignity and opportunity” Mary Robinson, 2015
- 4. 2009- - Founder of Energy For One World/ CEO World A practice on Global Change, Energy and Leadership. Program Director Nyenrode BU Executive Program- The Netherlands: Energy MBA 17 years Shell International : Upstream Oil and Gas Project and Business Development ( 5 Countries and HQ). Director and Entrepreneur of Start- ups Adriaan Kamp
- 5. Contents of Session 1. Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015 2. Energy Trends, Energy transition/ architectures 3. Our (Change) Leadership- Global, Regional, Local. From Plan (Strategy) to Reality 4. Wrap-up
- 6. Year 2015 – A Pivot Year • Feb: February 5-7 – Delhi Sustainable Development Summit | New Delhi, India • March: Returns in from Voluntary Contributions INDC. • April : Pope Francis Encyclical • May : 12-13 – Bonn Conference for Global Transformation | Bonn, Germany / 2nd annual United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Forum from 17-21 May New York • June: UN Vienna Energy Forum 18-20 June • July: 7-10 – Our Common Future under Climate Change | Paris, France • September: 25-27 UN General Assembly/ SDG post-2015 • December: Paris Climate Change Agreement - Nov 30-Dec 11
- 7. How are we going to live together and provide energy to all people of this world – reliably, sustainably, affordable, and in harmony? Can we build Sustainable Societies for all? 7
- 8. Sustainable Development- Some Highlights 1968 Club of Rome 1987 Gro Brundland Commission- Definition of Sustainable Development 1992 Rio Earth Summit 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2000 UN Millennium Developments Goals 2002 Cradle-to-Cradle Philosophies- Mc Donough/Braungart 2006 Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth 2009 Copenhagen 2012 Rio+20: Re-thinking Sustainability/ Sustainable Energy For All. Jurgen Randers: 2052 (Club of Rome). 2014 COP 20 -Lima and Defining Post-2015 SDG. 2015 Paris New Climate Change agreement and Post-2015 SDG02/21/15
- 9. Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development 02/21/15 Clickable Video Presentation
- 10. 10 By defining our goal more clearly, by making it seem more manageable and less remote, we help all people to see it, to draw hope from it, and to move irresistibly towards it.
- 13. 13 Clickable Link To UN SDSN Goal Page
- 17. UN Climate Change Summit in NY & Climate Change, Cop20 in Lima- 2014
- 18. Click to go to Website
- 19. 21.02.15 Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments • Economic and finance system change and fundamentals • A new technological era • Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations • Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for wealth justice • Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities • Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets Global Change
- 20. 20 2014 2030-2050 7 Billion People 9 Billion People 90 trillion USD economy 180-210 trillion USD 225 million oil eq/day 500- 750 million oil eq/day 400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century ??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
- 21. The world needs energy 02/21/15 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
- 22. Linear (logarithmic) relation between Energy Consumption and GDP 02/21/15 Source: Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute, 2014
- 23. BP Energy Outlook 2035 02/21/15
- 24. A complex system
- 25. Sources of Energy Consumers of Energy 1. Coal Power- sector 2. Fossil Oil & Gas Transportation 3. Nuclear Agriculture 4. Renewables- Solar, Wind, Hydro, Biomass, Geothermal Municipalities and buildings 5. Energy Savings! Industry Supply vs Demand
- 26. The World Energy System- A Complex System (2)
- 27. Global Footprints and unequal resource use 02/21/15
- 28. The creeping-up of energy prices... 02/21/15
- 29. .Energy prizes determining the outlook and business opportunity space (margins) and drivers for change... _______ Japan ________ Europe ________North America India
- 30. 2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved Shell Energy Scenario: we do not know how it will play out…
- 31. Future Strategies and Scenario’s: With Uncertainties 02/21/15
- 32. One World. Many Needs. Many Views
- 33. BRIC: It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of our people You’ll fix whatever you want to fix! The West: “If you do as I have done it will be a mess.” Let us all change- rapidly Let’s secure our nation, people and planet Emerging: Will there be enough for us? Can i afford it? Who will deliver it to me? The poor: When will we see electricity and get mobility? Opec and GasPec: You need us! We can deliver your needs! What is all that fuzz about Availability and climate change?
- 35. Prognosis Renewables/CleanTech 2030-2040 BAU ReMap2030 UN DDCP (Business As Usual) (IRENA/UN Energy For All) (exponential growth) 21 % 30% > 70% BAU= Business As Usual, ReMap2030= UN Energy For All Study and Plan DDCP= UN Sustainable Development Goals post-2015/ Deep-De-carbonization project
- 36. Clickable Access to Report
- 37. Thomas Piketty and Pope Francis On Capital, Wealth and Social Justice 02/21/15 Clickable Video Presentation Clickable Video Presentation
- 38. Secretary Hillary Clinton- GeorgeTown Speech 2012: We need Energy Diplomacy 02/21/15 Clickable Video Presentation
- 39. The State of Our World Energy System Three wise moves: • The Western (OECD-) countries could do well if they were able to “make room” and reduce their average fossil energy footprint significantly, in order to- • Allow and facilitate the non-OECD countries to grow and allow their benefits and wealth creation (opportunity) from fossil energy. • The general predicted increase in world average energy consumption per capita should ideally be generated by non-fossil fuels such as renewable energy. Overall world fossil fuel production is not to rise and should taper-down significantly if we do not wish to cross levels which can no longer be sustained or guaranteed for our economies, societies or nature. And an action agenda: • A political agenda: “We need better oversight and agreement on the rules of the game on sustainability and the dynamic developments in the world energy system.” We need policies, markets and regulations which supports the new • A business and large (energy) corporation agenda: “making room for the new: enabling the development of energy architectures of the 21st century” • A social agenda: “we need to allow for the poor and middle-class incomes: ensuring that energy once and when made available – remains affordable.” • We need leadership values of the 21st century : allowing for better integration of sustainability in the energy value chains and across borders. 39
- 40. Installation Deployment Irruption The Industrial Revolution Age of Steam and Railways Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering Age of Oil, Automobiles and Mass Production Age of Information and Telecommunications Frenzy Synergy Maturity Panic 1797 Depression 1893 Crash 1929 Dot.com Collapse 1998 Period of Institutional Adjustment 1 2 3 4 5 Panic 1847 1771 1829 1875 1908 1971 1873 1920 1974 1829 Source: Perez, C., “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”, 2002 Crash • Formation of Mfg. industry • Economies of scale • Urban development • Support for interventionism • Build-out of interstate highways • IMF, World Bank, BIS History tells us that there have been five important waves of economic and social transformation
- 41. John Naisbitt : Mind Set! 1. While many things change, most things remain constant 2. The future is embedded in the present 3. Focus on the score of the game 4. Understanding how powerful it is not to have to be right 5. See the future as a big puzzle 6. Don’t get so far ahead of the parade that people don’t know you’re in it. 7. Resistance to change falls if benefits are real 8. Things that we expect to happen always happen more slowly 9. You don’t get results by solving problems but by exploiting opportunities 10. Don’t add unless you subtract 11. Don’t forget the ecology of technology John Naisbitt’s first published Book Megatrends (1982) was at the top of the NYT bestseller list for more than 2 years. His experience reaches from executive positions in the corporate world to appointments by Kennedy and Johnson, and as an entrepreneur. He is a former visiting fellow at Harvard University, a former visiting professor at Moscow State University, and currently a faculty member of the Nanjing University in China. He has lived in three continents and travels the world as one of the most sought- after speakers. He holds fifteen honorary doctorates in the humanities, technology and science. 2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
- 42. happens shift
- 44. The Future is embedded in the Present The Future is Uncertain The Future can be Shaped and Build The Future is Now
- 45. UN Regional Blocks Countries Cities Communities Companies and Institutes Co-alitions of the Willing
- 46. A Vision on our Future (typical of Futurists) Clickable Video (YouTube) Presentation
- 50. A Vision from Denmark Clickable Video (YouTube)
- 51. Click to Go To Website
- 54. Old vs New Clickable Presentations Vs 250 Bn USD investment
- 55. The State of Our World Energy System The world energy system is presently rapidly changing – and under the influence of: • Population Growth • Wealth Distribution • Energy Demand Increase • Distribution and Prize Fluctuations • Economy and Society • Planetary Boundaries and Climate Change Givens: • Five worlds- Five Emotions (OECD, BRICS, Opec/Gaspec, Emerging and Developing, Poor) • Present Realities in Technology and New Frontiers in the Cleantech- Fossil Industry • Global, Local and Regional dimensions • Importance and Realities of Business, Society, Ecology, Economy and Politics
- 56. AND WHERE IT ALL MATTERS..
- 59. Cities
- 60. The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCities and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada The top 10 cities by population: 1. Tokyo, (34 million) 2. Seoul (24.4 million) 3. Guangzhou (24.2 million) 4. Mexico City (23.4 million) 5. Delhi (23.2 million) 6. Mumbai (22.8 million) 7. New York (22.2 million) 8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million) 9. Manila (19.6 million) 10.Shanghai (19.4 million) All above fit comfortably into the list Of Top-50 nations by population
- 62. 02/21/15 . The World Under Construction: Rapid Rise of Cities By 2025, Emerging markets will have more households with income of $20,000 USD Or above than the developed economies The UN estimates that 4 Billion People – 53% of World Population- currently resides in Towns or cities. BY 2050- that will be 6.3 Billion. In 1950 it was under 750 million. The IPCC concludes that urban areas consume between 67% and 76% of global energy, And generate about 75% of Global Carbon Emission. Urban areas are projected to triple between 2000 and 2030. A most recent study of 274 cities by researchers from Germany and US concludes: - that it would make it a lot more feasible to meet climate targets if our (city) infrastructures did not require so much energy - It would be super-helpful if cities were to develop in an energy efficient wa - Cities are all very different from each other, but we can identify types of cities that are similar to each other (in terms of energy use).
- 63. Click to Go to C40.org
- 64. Regions
- 65. EU Energy Union - 3 TW 02/21/15 European Energy Union Climate Change Action Agenda (2030): - 40% GHG emission reduction - 27% renewables -27% energy efficiency Energy Security and Energy Dependence
- 66. Pre-1990’s 1990’s - 2010 2010 MIDDLE-EAST/ NORTH AFRICA : THE THREE AGES OF GAS • Associated gas used for power, but much flaring (still in Iraq today) • Limited LNG exports of non-associated gas (Algeria leading the way in 1964) • Flares down, but domestic gas markets highly subsidised, below $2/mscf • Reasonable investment terms for non-associated gas allowed LNG export and petrochemicals industries to increase • Domestic demand rises, outstripping supply • Fiscal terms unfavourable for difficult domestic gas development. • Hence connections to international gas pricing – via LNG. Alternative is burning fuel oil. • Conservation? Liberalisation? Interconnection? MENA gas market expected to be as large as Europe by 2020 LNG growth & expansions 1st LNG import: 2009 Limited LNG export MENA Gas Production & Imports (Bcm)
- 67. •
- 68. INDIA EUROPE POPULATION 1110 492 AREA 3,2 mio sq km 4,3 mio sq km Number of States 29 27 Number of Languages 22 23 GDP (in billion USD) 703 14,520 GDP/ capita (USD) 3,100 32,700 Total electricity production (billion kWh) 761 3044 Oil Imports 2,5 mio boe/d 8,6 mio boe/d The world’s largest and world’s oldest economies have lot’s in common and a world of opportunities to share, learn and grow... Source: CIA World Factbook
- 69. Two Power-Nations in the Balance
- 75. Contents of Session 1. Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015 2. Energy Trends, Energy transition/ architectures 3. Our (Change) Leadership- Global, Regional, Local. From Plan (Strategy) to Reality 4. Wrap-up
- 76. Energy Sources
- 77. Oil and Gas (general) Powers the world Upside earning potential and wealth Highly efficient and effective Industry infrastructure of over 100 years and growing Oil and world politics Leadership and public dis-trust Sustainability Environmental concerns
- 79. Colonel Drake- Titusville- 1859 • The most important oil well ever drilled was in the middle of quiet farm country in northwestern Pennsylvania in 1859. For this was one of the first successful oil wells that was drilled for the sole purpose of finding oil. Known as the Drake Well, after "Colonel" Edwin Drake, the man responsible for the well, it began an international search for petroleum, and in many ways eventually changed the way we live.
- 80. Oil & Gas: A successful energy story well over 100 years 1859 1870 1910 1910s WW II 1919 1938 Colonel Drake find oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania Royal Dutch/Shell Group of companies created Exciting times for the oil industry Expansion in Europe, Africa and the Americas Mass production of cars: a vast new market US Petroleum Administration of War with US Oil companies made a strategic advantage in fuelling the war. Strategic importance of oil tankers. First non-stop flight across the Atlantic, powered by Shell fuel Oil struck in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Damman-7 1833 - 1945 1907, Meanwhile in the Netherlands Rockefeller creates Standard Oil Company and find business model for growth Henry Ford introduces the model T-Ford and first assembly line
- 81. Oil & Gas: A successful energy story well over 100 years 1950s & 1960s Oil crises. Opening- up of the North Sea. Turn to natural gas, good for 15% of Europe’s energy consumption, Shell supplying about half. Pioneering liquefied natural gas (LNG). IEA being created in 1973/1974. 1980s 1990s 2001 2008 The golden age for the Seven Sisters. Creation of OPEC. Advanced offshore technology, new products and services Start selling unleaded petrol. IOC hold global leadership position Changing faces in the oil industry: the rise and importance of national oil companies . Creation of IEF WWII - 2013 1970s 2009+ Industry growth, including new frontiers such as Arctic, Deep-Sea, Unconventional Oil & Gas.. The Golden Age of Gas 9/11 and its aftermath. Rapid rise of (new) energy demand in the East. Oil hits 100 USD/ barrel.
- 82. UPSTREAM OFFSHORE PLATFORM OIL SANDS Bitumen DOWNSTREAM Feedstock Synthetic crude oil Fuels, lubricants and speciality products including Bitumen and liquefied petroleum gas UPGRADER PLANT Oil REFINERY Gas LNG LIQUEFICATION PLANT GAS TO LIQUIDS PLANT BIOFUELS PLANT BIOFUELS PLANT WIND TURBINES Energy for industrial and domestic use LNG REGASIFICATION TERMINAL POWER STATION ONSHORE PRODUCTION FACILITY Gas Oil CHEMICAL PLANT Petrochemicals used for plastics, Coatings and detergents Global Oil & Gas businesses
- 83. From historic to futuristic- in transportation
- 84. From historic to futuristic- in drilling
- 85. From historic to futuristic- in exploration
- 86. From historic to futuristic – in offshore engineering •
- 87. 21/02/15 [ EP Projects ] Oil & Gas Upstream LifeCycle IDENTIFY &IDENTIFY & ASSESSASSESS SELECTSELECT DEFINEDEFINE EXECUTEEXECUTE OPERATEOPERATE
- 88. An example from Statoil: Celebrating 40 years offshore 02/21/15
- 89. Exploring our world for resources…. Not Shell’s view
- 90. Breaking record after record…beyond our imagination
- 91. Some Good reasons for Innovation • To safeguard People and Planet • Creating products and services better serving Customer, Corporate and Societal needs • To commercialize scientific breakthroughs (disruptive or enabling) • Widen the exploration opportunity. Grow the recoverable reserve bases • Expand the operating envelope. Generating change and improvements (efficiency, effectiveness) in existing operating environment • To generate new opportunities for economic growth or (new) job creation. To fuel our work environment. To instil people with passion for creation.
- 92. 02/21/15 •
- 93. Tar sands
- 95. Nuclear Long-life Cheap and durable energy Very powerful. Power intensity. Risk of Long-life damage to people and planet, Long-life storage of source, after-use Terrorism. Ill-use of reactors or base materials
- 96. Nuclear around the world
- 97. Coal Open and closed pits. Easy to delve Sometimes beyond human scale Oldest source. Still abundant Cheap to market Environmental concerns over mines and coal- fired power plants Land-use Health and safety of coal mine workers Health issues on consumers
- 99. Where is coal found?
- 100. THE RISE OF CLEANTECH- WORLDWIDE 02/21/15
- 101. Cleantech has over the last 10 years made an impact over a wide range of businesses 02/21/15
- 102. . Awareness for “Clean” has risen thanks to a problem we need to solve
- 103. Despite all that - prognosed GHC emissions to rise...
- 105. The Late Hermann Scheer - The godfather of EuroSolar, Feed-in tariffs, IRENA, and Energy Autonomy
- 106. Conventional Renewables, Distributed Energy System Reserves (ending, not lasting) For ever Polluting Clean Sources at limited places Everywhere Herman’s simple observation..
- 107. From Global to Local: Consumer sentiments may change in a changing world 02/21/15
- 108. 02/21/15 Between 2000- and 2008: A new green deal was launched by governments...
- 109. Wind Land-use. Not in my back garden Availability of wind. Unreliable availabilities. Environmental concerns Proven and scaleable renewable solution Clean Competitive prizes
- 110. 02/21/15
- 111. Wind energy potential in Europe 02/21/15
- 112. Wind Powering US- what it takes to win(d)... 02/21/15
- 113. Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s 4 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr An offshore area of 100km2 175 wind turbines Two offshore substations Nearly 450km of offshore cabling One onshore substation 630MW of electricity Enough power for nearly half a million homes
- 114. And generating a fierce international competition for market and leadership!
- 115. Creating momentum in the industry for growing to scale. Despite all it’s growth- yet Baby (1%) in comparison with Oil & Gas!
- 116. Solar (The Sun) Abundant. Every moment 165TW Very powerful. Every where available Small scale (de-central) and large scale (central) solutions Long lasting (reserves): 4 billion years Young technology . Scalability issues Challenge to converse efficiently. Land-use Unequal and unreliable availability. Storage? Cost prize (installation, manufacturing) Earth materials for production
- 117. Solar PV: doubling of installation power.and fall of prizes 02/21/15
- 118. 02/21/15
- 119. Thanks to manufacturing cost improvement, we have seen similar scale developments in Solar over that period ...although still lacking behind Wind.
- 120. Bloombergs
- 121. Largest Solar Farm (First Solar) 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr 3500 hectares 160,000 homes 1,5 Bn USD 550 MW 8 million panels
- 123. Although solar power is currently only 1% of America’s energy mix, as Ray Kurzweil points out, on an exponential growth curve, 1% is half way. Only 7 more doublings makes it 100%. Although solar power is currently only 1% of America’s energy mix, as Ray Kurzweil points out, on an exponential growth curve, 1% is half way. Only 7 more doublings makes it 100%.
- 124. 1. The Cleantech Name Gradually Disappears. 2. Venture Capital Industry Trapped In Own Pattern And Parochial Trade; 3. Mega-trends : Energy System Analogy With “Cloud Computing” 4. Big Companies (Top-1000 Corporations) Have Stacked 2,9 Usd Trillion Cash. Rise Of Corporate Vc’s ? 5. Direct Government Funding Is In Decline. 6. New Language: I2i- Infrastructure 7. Rise In Emerging Economies. Petrodollars: May Recycle In Cleantech Industry 8. Investment In System Solutions. 9. Institutional Investors Seeking To Reduce System Risks ( Carbon Disclosure, Future Risks) 1. Fossil Prices Remain Under Pressure 2. Clean Energy Investment Struggles To Match 2014 3. It’s Still All About The Costs, Stupid 4. Paris Cop21: More Light Show Than Meteorite 5. Electric Vehicles Touch The Brakes 6. Solar Solid Will Add 55gw 7. High Winds Deliver Nearly 60gw 8. Lots Of Sizzle, A Little Steak In Connected Homes And Power Storage 9. Coal Gets Burnt 10. No Sleep For M&a Bankers02/21/15 Lessons in 2010 and the Outlook for 2015
- 128. Key Findings Re-Map 2030 Some of the key findings include: The global renewable energy share can reach and exceed 30% by 2030. The technologies are already available today to achieve this objective. Energy efficiency and improved energy access can advance the share of renewables in the global energy mix to as much as 36%. • Business-as-usual will only result in an increase of this share from 18% in 2010 to 21% by 2030. • As the use of traditional biomass decreases, the share of modern renewables will more than triple. As energy demand continues to grow, this requires a quadrupling of modern renewables in absolute terms. • Renewables growth needs to take place across all four sectors of energy use: buildings, transport, industry, and electricity. • Transitioning towards renewable energy is possible at negligible additional cost. The economic case for the renewable energy transition is even stronger when we include socio-economic benefits - with these factors are taken into account, switching to renewable energy results in savings of up to USD 740 billion per year by 2030. • The analysis shows that the deployment of renewable energy can reduce annual CO2 emissions by 8.6 Gt by 2030. Such emissions savings, combined with energy-efficiency gains, would be sufficient to set the world on a path to preventing catastrophic climate change.
- 129. The world's total installed capacity of renewable energy is forecast to more than double by 2025 to 3,203GW from 1,566GW in 2012, underpinned by an average annual growth rate of 5.7%, according to figures in a new report from consultancy Frost & Sullivan.
- 130. Prognosis Renewables/CleanTech 2030-2040 BAU ReMap2030 UN DDCP (Business As Usual) (IRENA/UN Energy For All) (exponential growth) 21 % 30% > 70% BAU= Business As Usual, ReMap2030= UN Energy For All Study and Plan DDCP= UN Sustainable Development Goals post-2015/ Deep-De-carbonization project
- 131. Outlook
- 134. Present world energy mix and formal institute predictions…
- 136. Future Strategies and Scenario’s Based on Uncertainties ScarcityAbundance
- 137. 137
- 138. Clickable Access to Report
- 139. From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society. The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio- political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on location. The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future. 139 Energy Architecture
- 140. Energy & Sustainability Today From now on 1 2 3 45 1 2 3 4 5
- 141. Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “X-Factor of Integration, Transition and Transformation” 1 2 3 4 5
- 142. 142
- 143. The State of Our World Energy System Three wise moves: • The Western (OECD-) countries could do well if they were able to “make room” and reduce their average fossil energy footprint significantly, in order to- • Allow and facilitate the non-OECD countries to grow and allow their benefits and wealth creation (opportunity) from fossil energy. • The general predicted increase in world average energy consumption per capita should ideally be generated by non-fossil fuels such as renewable energy. Overall world fossil fuel production is not to rise and should taper-down significantly if we do not wish to cross levels which can no longer be sustained or guaranteed for our economies, societies or nature. And an action agenda: • A political agenda: “We need better oversight and agreement on the rules of the game on sustainability and the dynamic developments in the world energy system.” We need policies, markets and regulations which supports the new • A business and large (energy) corporation agenda: “making room for the new: enabling the development of energy architectures of the 21st century” • A social agenda: “we need to allow for the poor and middle-class incomes: ensuring that energy once and when made available – remains affordable.” • We need leadership values of the 21st century : allowing for better integration of sustainability in the energy value chains and across borders. 143
- 145. Who should pay for Energy Transition (1)
- 146. Who should pay for Energy Transition (2)
- 147. Who should pay for Energy Transition (3)
- 148. Who should pay for Energy Transition (4)
- 149. Who should pay for Energy Transition (5)
- 150. Who should pay for Energy Transition (6)
- 151. Who should lead Energy Transition (1)
- 152. Who should lead Energy Transition (2) • The Established Energy Sector AND the new. • Leaders in Innovation and Leading Innovative Nations – Energy Corporations – Societies and Economies • In Established and New Markets • Building Co-alitions of the Willing, and Multiplying Efforts to scale.
- 153. Energy Transition & Regulation
- 154. Examples of some Imaginative New Regulations for Energy Transition (Global, Regional, Local) 1. Rapid Licensing of Offshore Acreage for Offshore Wind Farms/ Onshore Solar Farms 2. Old –Generation Capacity Replacement Regulation with mandatory de-centralization included (license to operate) 3. Integrated (Coal/Gas) Sales - connecting new gas (import/export) with balanced new investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy architectures (e.g. PPP) 4. Promoting De-centralized Business models ( Corporate / PrivateTax Advantages)- for community co-operation utility models. 5. Promoting private ownership, participation and investment (tax-incentives) in renewable energy architectures (e.g. wind-farms, micro-grids, eco-homes). 6. Zero-emission car and free (clean) public transportation act in cities (health, clean-air act, climate) 7. Zero-emission new building act/ Re-trofit act (regulation, tax incentives) 8. Corporate Tax reductions for companies going 100% Green (e.g. Re-100) 9. ‘Clean’ Energy Pricing advantages for low-income/ ‘ Dirty’ Energy Price Uplifts for the Wealthy (e.g. India) 10. New Coal, Oil and Gas Eco-Price /Lifting Tax. (CO2, externalities, eco-price) to be used for Green transition.
- 155. Advantages/ Disadvantages State Capitalism for Energy Transition (Global, Regional, local) Advantages 1. Single-party plan and decision making 2. ‘Common Wealth’ shared and balanced interests 3. Balanced Long-term/ short- term 4. Easy to adopt and include Sustainability and Economy for Society (accept additional costs) 5. Government income controlled- allows for price setting Dis-Advantages 1. Bureaucracy 2. Politicized/ Low-trust 3. Corruption 4. Low on Imagination/ Creativity 5. Productivity/ Competitiveness
- 156. Advantages/ Disadvantages Free Market Capitalism for Energy Transition (Global, Regional, local) Dis-Advantages 1. Additional Complexities between working parties: plan-making and decision making 2. Conflict of interest between private and public interests 3. Short-termism, self-interest vs. common-wealth, long-term needs 4. Hurdles to adopt and include Sustainability and Societal needs in Business Model or Earnings Drivers (do not accept additional costs) 5. Merit Order. Competitive market drives lowest cost- not highest quality (or most elegant/ sustainable) energy architectures 6. Corruption Advantages 1. Efficiency & Effectiveness 2. Competitiveness 3. Stimulate Imagination/ Creativity 4. Fast to attract capital to where best applied. 5. Schumpeter (“kills”) 6. Focus and Productivity
- 157. Hope(s)& Fear Energy , Sustainability and Change (Transition) (Global, Regional, local) Fear(s) 1. Loss of Country Resource ‘ curse’ Profits 2. Loss of Industry Profits. 3. Loss of jobs. 4. Loss of Status (Power, Money) 5. Loss of Easy Money (investment, income) 6. Loss of influence over market and others 7. Loss Hope(s) 1. A ‘ Clean, fair and just’ World 2. Energy For All 3. No more dependencies or political horse-play around energy issues 4. A better tomorrow/ a future we want 5. Balanced economies with Society and Nature. 6. Sustainability Top. New Green Economy. New Green Jobs. 7. New eco-communities, new value chains, new corporations 8. Embracing new possibility thinking re-newing societies and established believes.
- 158. UN Regional Blocks Countries Cities Communities Companies and Institutes Co-alitions of the Willing
- 159. Some Case Examples- Of how Energy Transition works
- 161. Eco-Modernity at and around homes
- 162. A world of opportunity: an new and appropriate replacement policy can make a difference 02/21/15 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
- 163. 02/21/15
- 164. Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s 4 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
- 165. Largest Solar Farm (First Solar) 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr 3500 hectares 160,000 homes 1,5 Bn USD 550 MW 8 million panels
- 166. Solar City- A New Value Proposition
- 167. Deutsche Bank – Grid parity in 47 US states by 2016
- 168. China: Unlocking Mongolia and creating a Super Grid
- 169. Smart Cities: Governments will increasingly invest in embedding intelligence into the infrastructure of new and existing urban cities The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000 Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities: • C40 • Masdar, Abu Dhabi, • New Songho City, South Korea, • Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India • King Abdullah + Economic CitIES, Saudi Arabia • e.g. China Tianjin Development • •PM Modi’s 100 smart cities •King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
- 171. Better Architecture- Zero, Zero-Plus and more 02/21/15
- 172. RE-100 Group
- 173. Leaders in Energy (Washington DC)
- 174. Small – The new Big
- 175. The Holy Grail of Storage
- 176. Over 17,000 Villages Worldwide are learning lived sustainability Clickable Video Presentation
- 177. Exxon Mobile- Transport Outlook 02/21/15 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
- 178. In the words of a car-manufacturer, Carlos Ghosn Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future. (Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self- driving and navigating new car concepts)
- 180. We see the arrival of some new and futuristic entrepreneuring....in order to transport our common future…. 1/23/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
- 181. Old vs New Clickable Presentations Vs 250 Bn USD investment
- 182. “Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- Adriaan Kamp, 2014 182
- 183. Rapid Learning • Global, Regional & Local Energy • Conventional & Renewables / Energy Efficiency • Business, Economy, Sustainability & Societal / Political interests • Energy architecture, Energy transition & Innovation : Transportation, Cities, Industries & Infrastructures • Strategy, Execution & “Leadership for Change” 1) Cross- Sector 2015/ 2016 Goal “House Of Energy” 1) Education – Consulting – Workshops & Events – Projects – Research & Publication 183
- 184. Global, Regional, Local House of Energy Year N+ 1 Vs 2.0 House of Energy- for Building Vibrant Sustainable Societies
- 185. With, for and by vested parties Nurturing, Developing & Growing the Energy Professionals & Decision makers Accelerating Innovation in the up- & downstream Energy markets Of OECD / Rest of the World Serving / Conscious Leadership With Focus on International Exposure, Service and Outreach Supporting the Rise of Vibrant Sustainable Societies 185
- 186. Contents of Session 1. Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015 2. Energy Trends, Energy transition/ architectures 3. Our (Change, Business) Leadership- Global, Regional, Local. From Plan (Strategy) to Reality 4. Wrap-up
- 187. 2. LEADERSHIP AND LEADERSHIP OVER CHANGE
- 188. John D. Rockefeller, 1870: Business Tycoon, Legend and Founder of the first oil major • As no other before- he knew the importance of standards and scale and of access to market (re. transportation prices and rights). By so doing- he built the first true oil mayor. Unbeatable in Price. • Deal-making behind closed-doors and looking at global opportunities in the market with an analytical eye and self- interest. • “Old boys”- network • But also the creator of the Rockefeller Human Value and Freedom Principles, enshrined at Rockefeller Centre, New York. 02/21/15 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
- 189. Michael Porter: “Niche, Cost Leadership or Differentiation” and his remorse in 2011 02/21/15 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved Following several corporate crisis, including the US financial and Wall Street scandals in 2008, Occupy Wall Street, etc.: «A big part of the problem lies with companies themselves, which remain trapped in an outdated approach to value creation that has emerged over the past few decades. They continue to view value creation narrowly, optimizing short- term financial performance in a bubble while missing the most important customer needs and ignoring the broader influences that determine their longer-term success. How else could companies overlook the wellbeing of their customers, the depletion of natural resources vital to their businesses, the viability of key suppliers, or the economic distress of communities in which they produce and sell? How else could companies think that simply shifting activities to locations with ever lower wages was a sustainable «solution» to competitive challenges?»*
- 192. Conscious Capitalism The rise of new (global and business) leadership: Gandhi’s and Mandela’s Neuroscience , psychology and spirituality Gaia, Oneness and Global Mind-set. Transformative leadership Conscious Humanity
- 193. Accelerate - Change Management
- 197. “Only good can come from good” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
- 198. What Happy and Conscious people know • Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
- 199. “Manage others as you would like to be managed yourself” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
- 201. Servant Leadership : a simple but o so powerful idea : Turning you 180 degrees and making you available for growth.. Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee well- being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
- 202. Three dimensions
- 203. “Good is the enemy of Great”
- 204. Core Values Cultural Dimensions Global People Skills CONSCIOUS UNCONSCIOUS
- 205. Ernest Gundling: Understanding Cultures and Relationships. The way it works Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
- 206. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved “Resistance to change falls when the benefits are clear”
- 207. Stakeholder “ladder” No Contact Inform ‘Adhoc’ solutions Consultation Participation Consensus Empowerment Level of Relationship Time and Resources Engagement with the “10% unconditional advocates” or the “10% Hardcore adversaries” will tend to be in these steps of the ladder. Engagement with the “80% ‘middle ground’” stakeholders will tend to be in these parts of the ladder.
- 208. APPENDIX – MEDIA LIBRARY
- 209. Recommended Reading- Bibliography • John Naisbitt, Mind Set, Reset your thinking and see the future, Harper Collins Publishers- 2006 • Dominique Moisi, The Geopolitics of Emotion, Double Day, 2009 • A. G. Lafley/ Ram Charan, The Game-changer, Crown Publishing, 2008 • Larry Bossidy/ Ram Charan, Execution- Random House, 2002 • Hermann Scheer, Energy Autonomy, Earthscan, 2007 • Al Gore, Our Choice, Rodale , 2009 • Al Gore – the Future, Random House, 2013 • Ernest Gundling, Working GlobeSmart, Davies Black, 2003 • Stephen Howarth, A century in oil, Weidenfeld & Nicolsen, 1997 • David S. Landes, The wealth and poverty of nations, W.W. Norton & Company, 1999 • Piketty , Capital in the 21st century, 2014 • Pope Francis, The Joy of the Gospel, Evangelii Gaudium, 2013 • Thomas Barnett, A Blueprint for Action, The Pentagon’s new map
- 210. Recommended WatchList - Youtube Video’s • A Conversation with Al Gore: Six Drivers of Global Change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwXV5Sknr8o • Jeffrey Sachs, Coursera, The Age of Sustainable Development: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7PTbo4ZSW0 • Montreux 2013 - Jo Confino and Peter Bakker https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rzb4YyDkTE • Arnold Swarzenegger in Wien 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9uBJnCnhC4 • Kandeh Yumkella http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnGFKPnxlzU http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e0ecN5fjxA • Dr. Herman Scheer (T) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z7cdDYP_zg • Prof Dominique Moisi: Planetary Fears https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GnN60Vd7k8 • Energy For One World Channel: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-Lz-6ja0KC_a3ccQKvxf87YquWxb5SWq
- 211. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
Editor's Notes
- Hello!
- This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts. 1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in. 2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements. 3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures –as it develops.
- So- the principle question we may ask ourselves: How are we going to live together and provide energy to all people of this world- reliably, sustainably, affordably and in harmony? And Can we build truly vibrant and sustainable societies for all? Two relative easy questions to ask- but as you may understand and agree with me - not such easy questions to answer.. Well- let’s have a look at them…
- As the road on the discussions and dialogues on the planetary boundaries – at the highest political level- has been a bumpy and lengthy one. Well- it all started with the Visionary Project and Modelling work of the Club of Rome, back in the 60’s. It’s first report and publication was actually not at all that well received. In fact- the leading politicians and business man from and in that time, all fervent advocates of unconstrained economic growth- boo-boo’d the club members away , almost in oblivion- and depicted them as poor or bad news prophets…. It was the work and careful leadership of Gro Brundtland, and ex Norwegian PM and the Rio Earth Summit which created new hopes and new inspiration that the United Leadership of the world, or the UN, would and could come to grasp with the finite planet- and the needs of it’s today’s people and future generations. The Rio Earth summit became and was generally felt (by politics and business community) as a success. The definition and development of the UN Millennium Goals and the UN capacity and capability program roll-out (e.g. end of poverty, child education, disease control, food for every person, etc. etc.) is and could be seen a showcase what a collective community and spirit of world leadership can achieve. However- the subsequent years of negotiations for an agreement on the planetary boundaries or climate became cumbersome. “Milestones” of Al Gore’s inconvenient Truth or the Copenhagen COP-15 made Climate Change initially Top of Agenda, but the failure to reach an agreement became also a sign of a world order in dynamic change, and a world order no longer aligned and attuned to the principles of the initial agreements. In fact, Rio+20, the conference in Brazil in 2012 – gave birth and signs of new political block battles between the Rich and the Poor, and the East and the West: OECD vs. BRICS, ChINdia and G77. Sustainability or Sustainable Development from now were no longer a case of environmental or ecological protection, only No- the fact of the matter is and was- and in the words of former President of China Mr. Hu : People and People development First. Sustainability and Sustainable development became more directly linked and related to the economies, the social development of the various member states.- and whereby the richer countries are to “give”’ more to the more “poorer’ nations. In addition- and as part of the Climate Change,Safety & Social Justice negotiations – finance became an important element in the negotiations – whereby again - the more richer nations needed “to speak” with more cash (money on the table) in order to alleviate, help and restore the damage done to the poorer or more vulnerable nations (e.g. Bangladesh, Small Island States). That brings us to 2015. Till today. Following the success of the Millenium Development Goals, Secretary Ban-Ki Moon and with the help of special advisor Jeffrey Sachs have embarked on a journey of the development of a new and very exciting “capacity and capability program for the world”,- a new landing on the moon mission- and for the years (decades) to come: The so-called post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals… And that process is going “remarkably smooth” between the relevant stakeholders in the community of nations. What is more open is… === Let me quote some text here from there website: In April 1968, a small international group of professionals from the fields of diplomacy, industry, academia and civil society met at a quiet villa in Rome. Invited by Italian industrialist Aurelio Peccei and Scottish scientist Alexander King, they came together to discuss the dilemma of prevailing short-term thinking in international affairs and, in particular, the concerns regarding unlimited resource consumption in an increasingly interdependent world. …. The international effects of this publication in the fields of politics, economics and science are best described as a ‘Big Bang’: over night, the Club of Rome had demonstrated the contradiction of unlimited and unrestrained growth in material consumption in a world of clearly finite resources and had brought the issue to the top of the global agenda. End Quote- So much from this think-tank.
- And that brings me to the extra-ordinary lecture series of Prof. Jeffrey Sachs: The Age of Sustainable Development "The Age of Sustainable Development" gives students an understanding of the key challenges and pathways to sustainable development - that is, economic development that is also socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable. This open COURSERA course provides an introduction to the interdisciplinary field of sustainable development, drawing on the most recent developments in the social, policy, and physical sciences. Sustainable development is the most urgent challenge facing humanity. The fundamental question is how the world economy can continue to develop in a way that is socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable. The course describes the complex interactions between the world economy and the Earth's physical environment. Ecological processes and constraints (climate, disease ecology, physical resources such as soils and energy sources, topography and transport conditions) significantly shape the patterns of economic development, demography, and wealth and poverty. At the same time, human activities (farming, land use, urbanization, demographic change, and energy use) change the physical environments, increasingly in dangerous ways. The course offers a broad overview of the key challenges and potential solutions to achieve sustainable development in the 21st century. https://www.coursera.org/course/susdev I suggest you register and learn.
- The outcome document of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, entitled “The future we want”, inter alia, set out a mandate to establish an open working group to develop a set of sustainable development goals for consideration and appropriate action by the General Assembly at its sixty-eighth session. It also provided the basis for their conceptualization. The document gave the mandate that the sustainable development goals should be coherent with and integrated into the United Nations development agenda beyond 2015
- And in this slide, from the UN SDSN I show you the 10 SDG sustainable development goals - as it stand today. And – again let’s look at these new Sustainable development goals post-2015, as they have been formulated by a forum of world leaders over the last 2- 3 years. Simply said: The top-5 goals are still related with the fight against poverty, social inclusion, health and human rights. The goals Nr 6- to-10 are clearly goals and programs who are focussed in relation to a finite planet, with finite resources and a growing populations. I have encircled the goals where Energy & Sustainability play a crucial role in allowing the program to reach it’s target or success… As you can see: 8 out of the 10 goals will include our abilities to unlock energy “affordably, sustainably and available to all” for the program to succeed... Energy truly vital.
- Now- and if we look at the latest dashboard on our socio-economic and ecological dashboard of plant earth- then the aggregate of our human development looks seriously go-ing off-chart. The new and up-to-date Planetary dashboard, and presented at the latest World Economic Forum in Davos- shows- shows our “Great Acceleration” in human activity since 1950. Human activity, predominantly the global economic system, is now the prime driver of change in the Earth System (the sum of our planet's interacting physical, chemical, biological and human processes), according to a set of 24 global indicators, or “planetary dashboard”, published in the journal Anthropocene Review (16 January 2015). It is difficult to overestimate the scale and speed of change. === In a single lifetime humanity has become a planetary-scale geological force,” says lead author Professor Will Steffen, who led the joint project between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Press release | A decade on, IGBP in collaboration with the Stockholm Resilience Centre has reassessed and updated the Great Acceleration indicators, first published in the IGBP synthesis, Global Change and the Earth System in 2004. Paper The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 15 January 2015. Data download Great Acceleration data (excel 2007, 364.7 kB) When we first aggregated these datasets, we expected to see major changes but what surprised us was the timing. Almost all graphs show the same pattern. The most dramatic shifts have occurred since 1950. We can say that around 1950 was the start of the Great Acceleration,” said Professor Steffen, a researcher at the Australian National University and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. The bulk of economic activity, and so too, for now, the lion’s share of consumption, remain largely within the OECD countries, which in 2010 accounted for about 74% of global GDP but only 18% of the global population. This points to the profound scale of global inequality, which distorts the distribution of the benefits of the Great Acceleration and confounds international efforts, for example climate agreements, to deal with its impacts on the Earth System. However, the paper shows that recently, global production, traditionally based within OECD countries, has shifted towards BRICS nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Moreover, the mushrooming middle classes in BRICS nations are driving greater consumption here too. About one half of the global population now lives in urban areas and about third of the global population has completed the transition from agrarian to industrial societies. This shift is evident in several indicators. Most of the post-2000 rise in fertilizer consumption, paper production and motor vehicles has occurred in the non-OECD world. This new “planetary dashboard” highlights how the trajectories of Earth and human development are now lightly bound. The findings will be presented at this weeks World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, 21-24 January.
- Well – one of the elements, and a rather key one, in our today’s “sustainability” is the current state and prognosis of the effects of our carbon (and methane) emissions in the atmosphere. It will be the center of attention over coming year, as end 2015, and in Paris, world leaders have agreed to agree on a next realm of agreement on carbon emission post-2015. In fact- the agreement is only to come into effect after 2020. You may look at these risks as a probability- or a unproven perception- but the fact of the matter is, is that a global community of experts and key scientists find this serious enough to raise the alarm bells on the state we are in, and the pathways of progress we today- and collectively- have. I suggest you watch the documentary movie Earth2100 attached in this handout- and to give you a better impression of what this sustainabilty change challenge is about. Now one other thing you may and can know today: the global energy sector, more specifically- the fossil fuel industry- is here the culprit., ie. the largest emitter of carbon emission in the atmosphere. And to be honost- the damage has been done.
- Are The climate negotations and discussions. End 2014- we saw and witnessed the conclusion of the Lima talks. A sure relief to Mrs SG Christiana Figueres and H.E. and President Manuel Pulgar Vidal.- who played an instrumental and key role in achieving last-second miracles. Compliments and a salute to their leadership.Go to the results of Lima pageLima climate change talks reach global warming agreement Lima UN talks agree on building blocks for 2015 climate dealBut overall- Lima left the impression of a somewhat unpredictable and wieldy- process and circus- and "allowing"- clear and in the open- politicking, haggling and negotiations between country blocks (and their environmental ministers) .. . Not yet a comforting or re-assuring sight.It was bout the money , self-interests or what today could be "sold" politically at home- not so much about achieving our global goals or the pathways for achieving our common success.A sure relief to the organising bodies is that in the end- a draft 5-A4 piece of document was realized between the parties -after more than 14 days of negotiations, and years of preparations. But can we applaud this draft - as we have witnessed the amounts of "politicking" on this so-called deal? Are we confident that this form, style and this format of multi-national leadership is going to give us the answers and actions we need?Are the countries and energy corporations truly ready, willing and committed to this process? in the US, in ChInSea, in G77, in Africa?Let me be clear:If the science and scientific evidence holds, then we - and as a global community- have already crossed the lines what is to "responsible emissions in the atmosphere". Today, the amount of (human induced) CO2 in the atmosphere has already crossed the acceptable norm of 400 ppm.So- in essence-and again- if science holds true- we are already walking towards a global climate crisis.The clock is ticking.So- we very urgently need an international binding agreement (or agreement between the strong, producing or consuming- and powerful), as there are now also some very plausible and probable "unintended consequence" of this slow-moving and relative (unpredictable) climate change negotiation process:During the 14 days of negotiations - the UN tabled the proposal to end the fossil fuel industry by year 2050.: to agree on a zero emission norm.That statement raised immediately some alarms and news in the media on the existential crisis of the larger oil and gas firms.IN the handout I have shared here some thinking- on what this may do. ==== And now some thinking:Resource holding nations know it. Oil companies know this. "Having struck" oil, gas or coal is having found "new richness".Only in Norway already, the state is blessed with a state reserve of over - now almost - 1 trillion USD based on the money streams from the oil and gas finds...So- oil, gas and coal are directly connected with attaining (economic) wealth. It's a >10 trillion USD gold-pot, every year.Wind, solar and renewables- are not. Or not perceived as such.So- whilst all these environmental ministers are negotiating in Lima- the people sitting on the resources, the resource holders- the ministers of petroleum and economy- the oil companies- will look with eagle (or hawk) eyes to this process- and will make-up their minds how they are going to plan, play and produce their reserves.As the climate change programme and agreements become more clear ,sincere or evident (post 2015/ post 2020/ post 2030) - we may and can expect some backlash and competitive forces to unleash from this establishment (oil countries and companies) on the whole process...as it is or may become an existential threat....We may start to see new divisions or a new acceleration in pumping-up of resources- the strategic choices made by oil, coal and gas companies and (new oil-rich) countries (in eg. Africa) to "better pump it up all now-" and continue to accelerate the glut and penetration of the fossil fuel footprint (and it's technologies) over the globe- rather than wait and see- and as such- giving the new- the renewable industry very few room to gain market share... and leaving us in essence with a bigger puzzle to solve in years to come:And we may start to see a new game of "blame and liabilities" raised in the international community towards the (western and perhaps Arab) nations and companies who have enriched themselves on oil & gas, but have endangered the lives and land of people in the poorer or climate risk nations, such as Blangladesh, Africa or small island states.How are we going to feel at every storm, every drought, and every flood - in this world? The slow-moving and non-committal climate change process is and remains a risk on and over new (energy architecture) decision making, a proper functioning energy market and can be a Pandora's box in the unpredictable and dynamic geopolitical game of emotions, competitive economical forces and politicking we find ourselves today in.And today, and in this game- the western economies and oil companies are most exposed.Add to that the insights from Professor Sachs- and we may ask ourselves the question:Will we be able to do better?Do we have an opportunity to do differently - include more integrated, wholesome and better combinations?I believe there may be.
- And there is one programme within the UN who is looking at all that: and that is the programme Sustainable Energy For All. In September 2011, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon launched the Sustainable Energy for All initiative and shared his vision for how governments, business and civil society, working in partnership, can make sustainable energy for all a reality by 2030. Energy is the golden thread that connects economic growth, increased social equity, and an environment that allows the world to thrive. At a time when 1.2 billion people worldwide lack access to electricity, when 2.8 billion people do not have clean and safe cooking facilities, and when a shift to sustainable energy use is imperative to protect the Earth’s climate, no less than a worldwide effort is required to achieve sustainable energy for all. In the words of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon Energy enables. From job creation to economic development, from security concerns to the full empowerment of women, energy lies at the heart of all countries’ core interests. The United Nations General Assembly unanimously declared the decade 2014‑2024 as the Decade of Sustainable Energy for All, underscoring the importance of energy issues for sustainable development and for the elaboration of the post-2015 development agenda. And on our slides you see the leader of this program. Dr. Kandeh Yumkella. IN the handout there are a couple of video lectures from this eminent men and initiative taker of this enormous effort. === Sustainable energy provides new opportunities for growth. It enables businesses to grow, generates jobs, and creates new markets. Children can study after dark. Clinics can store life-saving vaccines. Countries can grow more resilient, with competitive economies. With sustainable energy, countries can build the clean energy economies of the future. Transforming the world’s energy systems will also lead to new multi-trillion-dollar investment opportunities. Sustainable energy for all is an investment in our collective future. Universal energy access, increasing the use of renewable energy, improved energy efficiency and addressing the nexus between energy and health, women, food, water and other development issues are at the heart of all countries’ core interest, which must be deeply integrated in the development agenda. ==== Where modern energy services are plentiful, the problem is different – waste and pollution. Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from fossil fuels are contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate that are causing widespread harm to lives, communities, infrastructure, institutions and budgets. Climate change puts us all at risk, but it hurts the poor first – and worst. “Energy is the golden thread that connects economic growth, increased social equity, and an environment that allows the world to thrive.” Sustainable Energy For All Value Added: Our Value-Added: What Makes Sustainable Energy for All Different – and How It’s Making a Difference Sustainable Energy for All provides a clear, concise global vision and a set of objectives that support action across all three pillars of sustainable development. The initiative leverages the global leadership and unprecedented convening power of the United Nations and the World Bank. Sustainable Energy for All brings together an unparalleled network of leaders from all sectors of society – governments, business and civil society – into a partnership that can transform the world’s energy sector. Sustainable Energy for All’s mobilises stakeholders around best practices and supports the adoption of innovative solutions. The initiative is helping to create the conditions that will enable a massive scale-up of private investment in energy access and clean energy. The initiative tracks progress toward the three objectives in a transparent, accountable manner
- And let’s look at The Global Energy Challenge- as we today know and have come to see it. Our world is also under rapid construction and development, with new wealth and wealth distribution being created, every day, and in an unprecedented speed. Over the coming two to three decades some 3 billion people in Asia, Middle-East & Africa, Latin-America are expected to join the new global middle-class and are to enjoy the same consumption patterns in their homes, in their offices and in their transportation as in the OECD and upper middle class families in the emerging and developing nations.[1] By the mid of the century, we expect we will be living with 9 billion people- sharing one planet. As we look at the world of today- and tomorrow- we can see great political, economic, social- , technological , ecological and organizational shifts taking place in our society, in our economies and – well- in – the biosphere of our planet and in nature. In simple terms. You cannot have a thriving and vibrant economy, if you donot have a healthy and peaceful society – in well-being. And you cannot have a society – at peace, well-being and wealthy- if the nature system around it cannot support it. So in essence: Our coming decades is – by some UN experts such as jeffrey Sachs called the Age of Sustainable Development: === Leadership over our economies, and in our industries such as the Energy sector- more and more is in need of a new balancing act: attuning corporate strategies, business innovation and organizational forms” with that of the ”dynamic contect change” and societal needs and realities they find themselvesin. In simple terms. You cannot have a thriving and vibrant economy, if you donot have a healthy and peaceful society – in well-being. And you cannot have a society – at peace, well-being and wealthy- if the nature system around it cannot support it. So in essence: Our coming decades is – by some UN experts such as jeffrey Sachs called the Age of Sustainable Development: Our key change challenge is to realize healthy and stable economies within healty, peaceful and vibrant societies- in respect of each other and in balance with nature. Nature needs to be sustainable as a supporting frame in order to maintain the rest. It’s that easy.
- The question is: Can we energize ourselves safely and sustainably into this future world? From a 7 billion population towards a 9 billion global community From a 90 trillion USD to a 180-210 trillion USD From 225 boeq towards 500-750 boeeq- if nothing dramatically changes. And as today- and that is a fact – we have already ‘polluted” the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 – enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century. Add to that the Great Acceleration and the many other planetary boundaries we are seemingly at ease are crossing… Now – how do are we to do this – and how are we go-ing from here? === Energy is vital and essential to modern day life. In fact, the wealthier you become, the more energy you are likely to use. That feels logical. [2] Today, all activities on our planet are fuelled by a daily energy supply of 225 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Roughly 80% comes from oil, natural gas and coal (fossil fuels). It is expected that in 2050 the total amount of energy that needs be produced will amount to 750 million boe per day. This figure is based on a worldwide population growth of 50% in the coming 40 years, and a higher average level of energy consumption (5 kW per capita or 120 kWh per capita per day[3]). How can we deliver this large amount of energy in a clean manner?[4] How does the transition path to 50 terawatt look like?[5] The question is: Can we ënergize ourselves safely into this world? As today- and that is a fact - we already have ‘polluted” the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 – enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century. So- Now, if all people on this planet by then were to consume fossil (oil, gas, coal) fuel energy in the same way as people presently do in the West and wealthy parts of the emerging nations, we will be in for trouble, as we would need Five planets (for as much as we can understand now) to find and produce these resources. And we will have surely exceeded an acceptable carbon emission levels- endangering our lives and species for decades, if not centuries to come. The present trend is exactly that. So, over the next decades, - in fact today and tomorrow- the energy industry will need to find answers to the challenge. And that is You & me! The clean-tech industry- the industry of renewable energy supply, smart energy infrastructures [6] and energy saving- will have to play a significant role, perhaps much larger than presently predicted or seen. But will the speed of developments and integration of the clean-tech industry and its innovations be in time for the market? How about the time needed in order to grow these solutions to scale, and to develop the capabilities into a reliable new energy infrastructure? How about the present strength and distribution of the existing resource base in the conventional coal, oil and gas resource system? Will the new frontier reserves such as shale oil and gas be sufficiently strong in order to balance the expected (rapid and steep) decline in the existing and large producing fields? Can (all of) these new frontier production reserves be actually produced- from an economic, ecological and societal point of view? So with this rise in complexity and uncertainties both on the demand side as well on the supply side of the world energy system, and in a socio-technical context, we may expect the world energy system perhaps to run against triple-A limits (affordability, availability, acceptability) or may become unstable (price volatilities, market swings, security or unrest, etc.). [1] UN report, McKinsey report: The next 3 billion [2] See graph UNDP [3] 1boe = 1564 kilowatt-hours (kWh). Note that today’s energy consumption per capita is 2.3 kW or 55 kWh per day. There are big differences around the world (China: less than 2 kW; US: more than 11 kW). [4] BP 2030 Energy Future Report ( central source report for our study!) [5] Energy Future Project- Berkhout, de Ridder & Kamp [6] E.g. micro-grids, smart and supergrids [7] In this respect: oil and/or gas reserves
- Now let’s look at how were doing in our world- of Energy. And we show you here a simple graph projecting the expected energy future from BP’s Energy outlook 2030 from 2012. This is here not an exact science- but shows you a kind of trend we find ourselves today in. And the simple truth enclosed in this graph, is:- So far, and over the last century- Wealth and Energy have been directly correlated. The more wealthier you got, the more energy you were going to consume. And also the other way around- the more energy you consumed, the more wealth ( goods, service, mobility) you were able to create or enjoy. Energy and wealth are inter-related. But energy and population are also related. The more people are living on planet earth, and if nothing changes, the more energy we will need. Add to this the general rise in wealth across the nations and in population (remember some 3 billion people will join the new middle-class over the coming decades) and you may see the picture evolve: A dramatic and rapid rise in energy demand. Across the globe – and fuelled by the rise and developing nations in countries such as China and India., and the rest. The picture above shows also still the expectations of India before the rise of Prime Minister Modi in India to power. I guess you will agree with me- that the rise of energy demand in India is most likely to double if not triple of what you see depicted in the above graph. So- given what I earlier shared with you- we may state: Houston- we may have a problem (or at least a challenge): How are we going to fuel all these people in the world reliably, sustainably, affordable, and in harmony?
- And to be a bit more precise and give you some more details on the correlation between Energy Consumption and GDP : please find attached slide from Jeffrey Sachs of the Columbia Earth Institute on Energy Consumption and GDP
- Add to that the concerning observation from the established energy intelligence experts, including institutes like IEA: Oil, Coal and Gas to continue to rise, and to remain at least 80% of the total fuel mix for decades to come.. And you may understand that we are – collectively- on a scary or perhaps not so healthy pathways:
- Coal is for 70-80% world’s power generator
- Can we stay out of trouble? On Energy that is? Out of trouble with respect to the boundaries we may reach on our planet- e.g. we will maintain Climate Change Safety or maintain bio-diversity and a lively planet? And will we be able to maintain the energy flows whenever they have become available to the many and numerous new energy consuming nations, cities and people? Will we be able to maintain, afford or sustain the flows of energy? Now the solemn news is – that Critical Model Research into this question-, and based on first scientific results, and best world energy reserves data available from Stanford University- our answer so far has been rather slim. If nothing changes, and changes dramatically- we may be heading for some serious trouble. We may see a widening gap between energy availability (and affordability) and energy demand, and we may see and expect a steep decline in the EROI (energy return on investment) in specifically the conventional and unconventional coal, oil and gas supplies in the sector. This gap is, and if nothing changes, for all to see- and already quite concerning- will become evident before mid-century (2050).. Now how will that feel? How will the countries and energy corporations start to behave – nationally but also internationally- if this “peak” energy point (or gap in supply and demand) is being felt? Whilst the price and energy efficience (or EROI) of Wind and Solar provides some good reasons for optimism, the reality may be not all that good: the amount of landmass , locations or sun-sitings may not be available or at hand to service the wider energy needs and communities. The recent difficulties and changed strategy in the large-scale Desertec Solar project in the MENA region an example of some of those difficulties. More study into these realities and future development and the potential of “Sun and Wind” are for sure urgently needed and required. And we may be in need for some new approaches. Some new thinking on our Energy Architectures and her development that may be needed. As you may now appreciate , I am most happy that we have this conversation: Our world and future energy strategies actually depend on it.
- To show and demonstrate this in another form and format…you see here a picture depicting today’s consuming behaviours spread over the wealth blocks or clusters of nations And the sad reality here is: In the West people belief they don’t have to do that much, as they are now more and more not the key consumers any longer of the planet, and they believe that their installed infrastructure and solutions are the best and most efficient on the planet. And the people in the East believe that they don’t have to do much, as they are only starting to consume- and they only starting to benefit from the wealth and magic modern society offers and can offer to people: like cars, hotels, vacations, flights, etc. etc. And the people of the South, and in South-East Asia and Africa think- we can’t do very much as our nations are only just developing… So- we better start to come-up with a plan- a better frame and a better more sustainable pathways for our shared and common future. Not an easy task.
- Let’s focus on 1 (one) other little trend in Energy and that is concerning… And that is the price, or the cost development, of energy. Over the last 10 years has seen an uncomfortable rise and fluctuation in the base energy prize. That of oil. Economies, governments and people around the globe are suffering from these rapid fluctuations or prize hikes.; Others are perceived to benefit. Well- these prize rises has been already cause of some unrest or nationalisations. Pakistan, Argentina, India to name a few have been in trouble during the prize hikes over the last years. Russia, Iran, US and some other producing nations and energy corporations are now in trouble as the oil prize has come down from over 100 to well under 50 / Bbl. The impact of the energy prize on national and personal economies cannot be neglected. Volatility of the oil or Energy Prize can cause a domino effect in the Financial and Economic markets. That “Jo-Jo Energy Cost & Price” and “Economic Domino” effect are a sign of our today’s (over-)heated and stretched energy markets. A thing we better and collectively avoid and heal… as the emotions may run high..
- So- and in a nutshell- we are not sure about our near-to-mid term future. On Energy that is. And how it will serve our Economies and Societies and in relation to Nature. No one can. No one can be sure. No matter who you are in our Energy Sector, or what Professional expertise you carry- be it the CEO of one of the largest Oil & Gas Companies, the State Minister or Leader of a country, An economist in an Energy institute, watchdog or block- our future is uncertain. There are some serious black swans, red post signals and signs and un-clarities (in relation, in demand needs and supply reserves, in capacity and cost development, on sustainability, etc. etc.) which causes us to frown our eyebrows. And there are also some “very bright and light” examples –name it- white swans- which make me (or us) smile. Add them all together- and the simple truth is : we don’t know how it all adds-up. And that is already a good thing to know: To acknowledge that we donot know how our energy markets, and our world energy system- will behave over the next one to two decades. I can say this with some clear certainty- as I have had the pleasure and insight of the Best of the West and the Most of the East is willing and able to offer or share. So – our individual and collective approach to our Global Change Challenge- and Energy & Sustainabilty Challenge- does matter. It’s crucial. Therefore I am so excited about this special lecture series. To my mind: This gap in knowledge and this sure-certainty in some of the behaviours of the players in our world energy system- and thus the performance of our energy architectures on location – is a problem or change challenge which can ideally be solved best within the Brotherhood of Energy Professionals. We have two options: Either we continue to compete across the silo’s , the energy value chain- between countries and companies- and hold our own cards to our chest- or we elect to come to a better grasp to what needs doing: on location, in the regions and on aggregate. That’s is the focus of this special lecture series. How can we do that?
- Well- first of all- is to allow ourselves to think in probable scenario’s. Scenario’s wherein Certainties and un-certainties in the development and new frontiers in the conventional oil and gas industry can be off-set against certainties and un-certainties in the cleantech industry. Will we see a tipping point? Will energy storage become available? When and in what speed can the world build cleantech capabilities and capacities- and new energy architectures. At what cost and in what timeframe can we change the existing electrification infrastructure and our transportation sector? Next to that- we can see on our horizon a world of emotions. Are we going to compete or collaborate? Can we influence the ways in which we relate? How will we behave in times of scarcity or in abundance? What market mechanism will prevail- in the free- markets, regulated and state-controlled markets. By starting to walk and talk this path- a little more intense- we may start to discover insights valuable to our company, company strategy and things we collective may want to achieve..in your nation, region or overall.
- Now- and as I have walked this path now for a while, and where-ever I had a conversation with people above this global energy change challenge- I received a variety of perspectives on the challenge. We live in One World- but we do have a wide variety of local and personal needs- and we do live in a world with very many and different views or awarenesses. So- the first thing we may realize when we address the issues is that there is and will be no single one answer to the problem. First and foremost- the problem is perceived differently by different people around the globe. And as the problem (or needs) are perceived different, so are the answers and solutions… I have attached in the handout a recent article in the New York Times from Andrew Revin with the working title Can Humanity’s ‘Great Acceleration’ Be Managed and, If So, How? I share you some similar observations and insights in my working practice- and which we are working with: We need to understand the Global AND Local- in order to make good and proper (energy) decisions on locations– balancing Social needs, with Economy and Sustainability. And Vica versa. The aggregate of all the local needs and deeds should be somehow be overlooked- and guided.- especially on Energy & Sustainability. === In the words of Andrew Revin: Ultimately, there will need to be an institution (or institutions) operating, with authority, above the level of individual countries to ensure that the planetary boundaries are respected. In effect, such an institution, acting on behalf of humanity as a whole, would be the ultimate arbiter of the myriad trade-offs that need to be managed as nations and groups of people jockey for economic and social advantage. It would, in essence, become the global referee on the planetary playing field. === Go to press release from Planetary dashboard shows “Great Acceleration” in human activity since 1950Human activity, predominantly the global economic system, is now the prime driver of change in the Earth System (the sum of our planet's interacting physical, chemical, biological and human processes), according to a set of 24 global indicators, or “planetary dashboard”, published in the journal Anthropocene Review (16 January 2015). Go to article from Andrew Revin: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/15/can-humanitys-great-acceleration-be-managed-and-if-so-how/?_r=1 IN this article we can read the following words-: Even without specifying exact global boundaries, global metrics can be highly misleading for policy. For example, with nitrogen, where the majority of human emissions come from synthetic fertilizers, the real-world challenge is to apply just the right amount of nitrogen to optimize crop yields while minimizing nitrogen losses that harm aquatic ecosystems. Reducing fertilizer application in Africa might seem beneficial globally, yet the result in this region would be even poorer crop yields without any notable reduction in nitrogen pollution; Africa’s fertilizer use is already suboptimal for crop yields. What can look like a good or a bad thing globally can prove exactly the opposite when viewed regionally and locally. What use is a global indicator for a local issue? As in real estate, location is everything. Finally, and most importantly, the planetary boundaries are burdened not only with major uncertainties and weak scientific theory – they are also politically problematic. Real world environmental challenges like nitrogen pollution, freshwater consumption and land-use change are ultimately a matter of politics, in the sense that there are losers and winners, and solutions have to be negotiated among many stakeholders. The idea of a scientific expert group determining top-down global limits on these activities and processes ignores these inevitable trade-offs and seems to preclude democratic resolution of these questions. It has been argued that (Steffen et al 2011): Ultimately, there will need to be an institution (or institutions) operating, with authority, above the level of individual countries to ensure that the planetary boundaries are respected. In effect, such an institution, acting on behalf of humanity as a whole, would be the ultimate arbiter of the myriad trade-offs that need to be managed as nations and groups of people jockey for economic and social advantage. It would, in essence, become the global referee on the planetary playing field. Here the planetary boundaries framework reaches its logical conclusion with a political scenario that is as unlikely as it is unpalatable. There is no ultimate global authority to rule over humanity or the environment. Science has a tremendously important role to play in guiding environmental management, not as a decider, but as a resource for deliberative, evidence-based decision making by the public, policy makers, and interest groups on the challenges, trade-offs and possible courses of action in negotiating the environmental challenges of societal development (DeFries et al 2012). Proposing that science itself can define the global environmental limits of human development is simultaneously unrealistic, hubristic, and a strategy doomed to fail.
- Now to continue, and in simple terms, in the energy landscape of the world - we can today see the following type of conversations… So how are we going to share one planet and ideally staying out of trouble? Well, and to start, and in a very simplified way- the countries presently divide themselves in resource [7] rich (exporting) countries or in energy (poor, importing) countries. So, this creates a world picture in Five (Energy) Clusters: OECD, or the West- The high consumers of the past, present andperhaps the future China, and BRICS /MIST- The new parties in town Saudi and OPEC/Russia and Gaspec- The oil and Gas “cursed” nations India and leading emerging nations- Ready to join The Very poor- How can we join? These clusters have all their own pattern of energy architecture and behaviors and politics. Now the question here is: how these clusters of nations are going to inter-relate, behave and develop over the coming decades? Will there be a free and open market for energy and energy supplies, or will we there be more retrenchment and competition, and jockeying for position? Will parties decide to make isolated decisions and Machiavellian policies and in order to optimize own outcomes and advantages or will we see a new form of collaboration benefitting the common good and all?
- And I just want to flag to you- one of the flagship projects within the UNSDSN organisation- the so-called Deep-decarbonization project. With an assembled scientific team- the organisation has and is going to look into every country, every energy architecture on this planet- and will propose pathways of how that economy, that country, that energy architecture will be able to come to a zero-emission infrastructure by 2050. Quite ambitious. But also actually quite needy- to bring to the attention. Now=- the study is still in the academic realms, and doesnot test itself against the forces and changes needed at policy makers, industry , economy or organizations in order to make it true. That’s the addition this lecture series bring to you. Our lecture series is about the pragmatics. About how we – the true energy professional- can start talking and walking the path of renewal. Of getting safe- and to stay out of trouble.
- As trouble is not only in our natural environment. Possible and potential trouble is also seen ahead in our run to progress in our economies and social realms. Last year, Pope Francis’ gave a special address to the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos. In the handout you’ll find the full text of his address. But in simple words- the Pope re-addressed some of his earlier observations made in his Evangelii Gaudium: I ask you to ensure that humanity is served by wealth and not ruled by it. Let me be clear: The Pope is not standing alone here. He finds serious economist such as Paul Krugman, Joseph Stiglitz and now also Thomas Piketty at his side.- as well NGO’s such as Oxfam and Occupy wall street movement. Current fact is that the ‘1% rich and wealthy’ own and possess more than the rest of humanity- that is more than 50% of global wealth. There are clear flaws and short-comings, say – a shadow-side- in our todays free-market economies, in capitalism and elite wealth, and in the rush to greed for money (all over the planet). Energy and Finance are strongly interlinked. Energy – Economy and Society as well. So the warning of the Pope- is not only a warning to Government and Government Officials – but is – to my mind- a “call for grace and understanding for wanting to do better” in the Energy Sector and our Society overall. -- Full Adress of Pope Francis.I am very grateful for your kind invitation to address the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, which, as is customary, will be held at Davos-Klosters at the end of this month. Trusting that the meeting will provide an occasion for deeper reflection on the causes of the economic crisis affecting the world these past few years, I would like to offer some considerations in the hope that they might enrich the discussions of the Forum and make a useful contribution to its important work.Ours is a time of notable changes and significant progress in different areas which have important consequences for the life of humanity. In fact, “We must praise the steps being taken to improve people’s welfare in areas such as healthcare, education and communications” (Evangelii Gaudium, 52), in addition to many other areas of human activity, and we must recognize the fundamental role that modern business activity has had in bringing about these changes, by stimulating and developing the immense resources of human intelligence.Nonetheless, the successes which have been achieved, even if they have reduced poverty for a great number of people, often have led to a widespread social exclusion. Indeed, the majority of the men and women of our time still continue to experience daily insecurity, often with dramatic consequences.In the context of your meeting, I wish to emphasise the importance that the various political and economic sectors have in promoting an inclusive approach which takes into consideration the dignity of every human person and the common good. I am referring to a concern that ought to shape every political and economic decision, but which at times seems to be little more than an afterthought. Those working in these sectors have a precise responsibility towards others, particularly those who are most frail, weak and vulnerable. It is intolerable that thousands of people continue to die every day from hunger, even though substantial quantities of food are available, and often simply wasted. Likewise, we cannot but be moved by the many refugees seeking minimally dignified living conditions, who not only fail to find hospitality, but often, tragically, perish in moving from one place to another. I know that these words are forceful, even dramatic, but they seek both to affirm and to challenge the ability of this assembly to make a difference. In fact, those who have demonstrated the aptitude for being innovative and for improving the lives of many people by their ingenuity and professional expertise can further contribute by putting their skills at the service of those who are still living in dire poverty.What is needed, then, is a renewed, profound and broadened sense of responsibility on the part of all. “Business is – in fact – a vocation, and a noble vocation, provided that those engaged in it see themselves challenged by a greater meaning in life” (Evangelii Gaudium, 203). Such men and women are able to serve more effectively the common good and to make the goods of this world more accessible to all. Nevertheless, the growth of equality demands something more than economic growth, even though it presupposes it. It demands first of all “a transcendent vision of the person” (Benedict XVI, Caritas in Veritate, 11), because “without the perspective of eternal life, human progress in this world is denied breathing-space” (ibid.). It also calls for decisions, mechanisms and processes directed to a better distribution of wealth, the creation of sources of employment and an integral promotion of the poor which goes beyond a simple welfare mentality. I am convinced that from such an openness to the transcendent a new political and business mentality can take shape, one capable of guiding all economic and financial activity within the horizon of an ethical approach which is truly humane. The international business community can count on many men and women of great personal honesty and integrity, whose work is inspired and guided by high ideals of fairness, generosity and concern for the authentic development of the human family. I urge you to draw upon these great human and moral resources and take up this challenge with determination and far-sightedness. Without ignoring, naturally, the specific scientific and professional requirements of every context, I ask you to ensure that humanity is served by wealth and not ruled by it.Dear Mr Chairman and friends, I hope that you may see in these brief words a sign of my pastoral concern and a constructive contribution to help your activities to be ever more noble and fruitful. I renew my best wishes for a successful meeting, as I invoke divine blessings on you and the participants of the forum, as well as on your families and all your work.From the Vatican, 17th January 2014.
- Now, and in September 2012- One Lady has been raising the flag – in the international order- on the issue of Energy and Security. It was the former US State Secretary, Mrs Hillary Clinton, who acknowledged the new dynamism in the present world energy system, and single-handedly decided to start an elite Diplomat corps for Energy Diplomacy. At GeorgeTown University. I would recommend you to listen to this speech- as I believe – that every Energy man and woman- today and tomorrow- is in my mind: A diplomat of the energy business. On the moment that we start to speak about WE and Energy Availability – to ourselves and others, instead speaking of ME and Energy Security to self, We can see change. As our world and world community growns and becomes ever more complex- it is an invitation to the Energy professional, the Energy Men and Women in the East and in the West, in the North and in the South- to build the bridges of understanding, of collaboration and of can do.
- Now- what do we know of tomorrow? The world of today and tomorrow is in rapid acceleration. In the amount of people living on one planet, In the amount of new wealth creation and distribution. 3 billion people in the BRICS and emerging nations joining the middle-class, And in the need for energy. IN order to have the comfort of mobility, housing, communication, school, health, jobs and life entertainment. So – our shared challenge is to discover and to create the circumstances and conditions, ie. accelerate the right innovations, in order to allow everybody to enjoy energy in abundance. That is part of the exciting journey we like to take with you in this open conversation .. ==== But let us look today at what the role of innovation is in Energy, and how we can approach this. A vision and approach to this Global Energy Challenge is outlined in an earlier edition of my (program) book “Energy For One World”. Some of the essential elements hereof have been researched in a sponsored study and thesis. The objective and focus of this opening presentation is somewhat different, but it’s a good moment to share here some of the key change challenges we are facing in our overall world energy system: “Three wise moves” (or “three simple, non-dogmatic and intuitive rules”) spring to mind if we look at the total and aggregate developments – in our world energy system, today: The Western (OECD-) countries could do well if they were able to “make room” and reduce their average fossil energy footprint significantly, in order to- Allow and facilitate the non-OECD countries to grow and allow their benefits and wealth creation (opportunity) from fossil energy. The general predicted increase in world average energy consumption per capita should ideally be generated by non-fossil fuels such as renewable energy. Overall world fossil fuel production is not to rise further significantly if we do not wish to cross levels which can no longer be sustained or guaranteed for our economies, societies or nature. And an overall action agenda: A political agenda: we need better and a global oversight and agreement on the rules of the game on sustainability and the dynamic developments in the world energy system. A business and large (energy) corporation agenda: making room for the new: enabling the development of energy architectures of the 21st century A social agenda: we need to allow for the poor and middle-class incomes: ensuring that energy when made available – remains affordable. We need leadership values of the 21st century: allowing for better integration of sutainability in the energy value chains and across borders. The role of the Energy Business, in all this – and in realizing a sustainable development and action agenda post-MDG 2015- is to our minds - quite significant. It is our view that the afore mentioned Global (Energy) Challenge can be best solved by a attuned collaboration between Policy makers and the Business and Energy professionals (and Executives) in the sector and around the globe. Hence our excitement in our practice to develop, create and realize the (informal and global) ´platforms and formats´- ie. the conditions and facilities- for the energy professionals and policy makers (Executives) to step-up in their leadership and approach to this (global) change challenge. Only by pulling and combining the best-and-brightest resources and knowledge available, and only if we allow ourselves to find ´new and fresh-styled formats or platforms´ Between: the conventional energy sector and the cleantech industry business-, finance-, politics- and science the East and the West, The North and the South The have and have not’s May we have a chance of raising our shared awareness and building the (innovative) capabilities and capacities within the sector, and across borders. The energy sector that then can truly remain the ´engine´ and blessing for our economies and societies.
- I have borrowed this slide from a futurist. It depicts Five Historical Waves The global economy has now entered the deployment phase of the fifth technology investment cycle of the past 250 years. Our global economic activity since the advent of the industrial revolution has been dominated by five 40-60 year cycles or waves that are characterized by alternating periods of invention, when investment spending slows and periods of deployment, when investment spending and productivity growth is more rapid. Enterprises of all sizes will drive a shift toward the application of technology in new and fundamentally transformed business models, processes and operations. Transitioning to the deployment phase is not without risk. Clients must gain confidence in the profit generating ability of the new approaches. The timing of the decisions to shift spending priorities is uncertain as perceptions of effectiveness will require time. New entrants, with “net native” business designs, free of any legacy transformation burden will challenge incumbents. The "installation period" is the time of creative destruction, when: new technologies emerge from the lab into the marketplace entrepreneurs start many new businesses based on these new technologies venture capitalists encourage experimentation with new business models and speculation in new money-making schemes Inevitably, this all leads to the kind of financial bubble and crash we are all quite familiar with from our recent experience. After ‘ a crash’ , comes the "deployment period," which she views as a time of institutional recomposition: the now well accepted technologies and economic paradigms become the norm infrastructures and industries start getting better defined and more stable production capital drives long-term growth and expansion by spreading and multiplying the successful business models
- Shift Happens. Just think about this. Shift happens in Politics. In People Emotions. In Technology. In Power In economies. IN Businesses In the ways we relate and communicate Shift simply happens
- And our abilities to prognose and predict how we and our environmental are changing are not always in sync with what we may expect…
- Now- building or creating sustainable societies, or cities, is something we can do. We- the people- can build and shape our future. Our destiny. Many aspects of our lives, and our future, are determined by the state we are in today and by the actions and decisions we take today and tomorrow. Collectively and spread over 193 nations, 7 billion+ people, in over 4000+ cities and thriving business communities. Many aspects of our near- to mid-term future are already available or show their signs today: e.g. the rise of internet has given rise to social networks and a complete different way of connecting, working and sharing. IN the energy sector- we can see the creation of self-sustained houses, off-grid rural electrification based on sun, wind and bio, new energy architectures combining renewables, demand-management, smart grids, energy efficiency with energy storage (Pumped storage and local storage), and in transportation we see the rise of self-navigating electric cars, ships on fuel cells and wind, airplanes on solar, etc. etc. I hope you will find time to look at the Youtube video of the futurist, or trend-watcher- as in their field of work they look at today- and digest key trends and drivers of change with shapes our future tomorrow.
- Now to bring about true and lasting Integration, Transition and Transformation in our Societies- we need Vision and we need the skills and possibilities to influence, agree, decide, organize and realize. ‘This influence’ can be done at a Global Level (think UN, G20, BRICS, OECD, Opec, IEA, IEF) – and this influence and realization can be on lower levels: in cities and in communities. The Energy Business community, especially the larger-scale energy companies, be it state -be it private or stock-listed- is where today’s realities are be-ing executed- and futures can be build. Overall- and across the globe- the energy business community are the shapers and builders of our energy future. Now in the X-factor of tomorrow- I see this Business community, the energy professionals so to speak- assuming a much larger role in the stewardship over the energy architecture development, as done generally today- securing sustainable development. The beauty is- that energy professionals around the globe are connected. Horizontally across the value chains and in each Sector (be it oil, coal, renewables). Now- if we aspire to rapidly accelerate and step-up our Vision on Building truly vibrant and Sustainable Societies- then I see that the leaders in and over these energy companies AND the energy professionals within these companies can open-up and zipper. To open-up and build the new bridges for our new realities- from local, regional and global- and collectively create a new elevated construct of energy architectures. To my mind- this is a crucial element in the post-2015 UN SDSN development goals – re-inveting our established frameworks and organisations- if we are to succeed in its mission and delivery.
- But let’s have a look at the typical “archetype” of views and perspectives there are out there- in our world. How do people look at the Future? And how we are best to manage it? One of the answers is to be an optimist. A technology/ innovation revolution optimist. And there are some very good reasons to be so- as the last one or two centuries have been truly amazing and astonishing in what science and technology has given and offered to mankind. As an educated Applied Physicist, and keeping abreast with the (acceleration) of science and it’s applications- I also live in wonder. : wonder on how our world currently is rapidly changing and improving. In the words of Erik Solheim of the OECD: never ever has there be so many people living on this planet- and which could enjoy a relative or rather happy, healthy and wealthy lifestyle. Sure- there is an amazing amount of work left, and all included in the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals, - but the interesting thing is – that thanks to technology, and thanks to our abilities to roll-out wealth (think e.g. China Inc) to the many- the outlook is that we can end poverty, that we can end hunger, that we can ensure everybody a proper education and that we can end dis-comforting diseases.. But as our world accelerates and rapidly moves into this new frontiers of a global civilisation- there are clearly also some shadow-sides and questions to be asked on our abilities to live together, or whether the choices and decisions we make in and over our cities, lifestyles and (energy) infrastructures are truly sustainable. I have included a Vision from a Futurist/ Trendwatcher on our near future in the presentation package,. and I strongly suggest you watch it: as it is quite amuzing and entertaining. But for the realists, pragmatists or sceptics under us: here are surely some pies in the skies..…
- Our world of tomorrow can best come about by a Vision. A clear and attractive vision of how tomorrow can be or look like, and to create the organisation, technologies and skills in order to actually realize that. Often the late Steve Jobs of Apple Computers has been used as an example of a visionary leader. Elon Musk today is seen as such a leader in space, cars (Tesla) and solar (Solar City). Visionary leaders stand in today, but do not accept the status quo or the condition we are in today. They see opportunity. Opportunity to make things better. And they generally do this on a what bigger scale: ie. a Big-Bets on what may be. Visionary leaders are also in Politics: Nations have seen the rise and fall of visionary leaders: the good, the bad and the ugly ones. Visionary leaders have been in Business. IN fact the origins of the energy related industry was by Visionary Business Leaders. I name a view: Rockefeller, Edison, Ford, Carnegie etc. etc. And Visionary Leaders have been in the arts and culture, in science, in education, - in fact- in all aspects of our lives. Today- we live in a time where we want to have “Visionary Teams” or “Visionary Co-alitions of the willing”- such as e.g. the C-40. So- our history tells and learns us- that we can be the creators of our future. We can envision new things- and we can collective create new things. Vision helps and has helped to inspire: to build civilisations, nations and even to win wars. So- as we are working with the question(s): can we build sustainable societies for all? And how do we fuel all people on this planet? – we can use a slice of Vision. To inspire us. And to elevate us, and gives us the courage and energy to do well.
- At the other side of future building, is – and I already said it- is building the future. This is the form most used in our established businesses, government administrations and organisations. It is the method of creating an explorative future- a future based on the past and the present- and in control of what we know and have today. It’s the annual budget cycle, the 3-years strategic review, the government budget rounds, etc. etc. It is the aggregate of today’s activities supplemented with the activities we see ourselves doing tomorrow and over the coming 3-12 months. It’s focussed on short-term , here and now. Pragmatic. Not in the air. NO pie in the sky. No dreams. Now comes some thinking from the Business University where I lead (sometimes) Executive Energy Education: IN today’s world and change challenge– we need both. We need AND the Visionary (ie the teams of our future) AND the builders of our future. Together. Making our plans.
- In another way of framing it. If we like to progress our Energy Future- and based on the Sustainable development (and sustainable societies) change challenge we find ourselves in…than best if we can step from where we are today (the facts) towards what – ideally- we would like to have. The future on the horizon in 15-20 years from now. And if we are able to define that future, across the stakeholders and the community, then – at least- we’ve got a vision for the plan and journey we have to make. Over the coming 15-20 years. Now the moment to do so in Energy Land- is right NOW. Right this year- we are in an urgent and important need to re-define the future we want. In the energy sector, and across the value chain of stakeholders and related energy businesses: In short: we need a Vision on our Energy Architecture- for over 15-20 years. NOW.
- An example of a Vision on an Energy Architecture and created by a stakeholder community from government, city and energy businesses is Denmark. I have included in the slide presentation and handout the link to this 14 minutes video clip. I strongly suggest you have a look at it- after this lecture. Today- 30% of Denmarks electricity is supplied by Wind Farms.
- Add to that- and next door to Denmark- Germany’s Energiewende, another ‘Visionary Project’-. Well this “Visionary project” did not just come about in a year (2011). It is rooted in the anti-nuclear movement of the 70s and brings together both conserva-tives and conserva-tionists — from environmentalists to the church. The shock of the oil crisis and the meltdown in Chernobyl lead to the search for alternatives — the rise of the solar voltaic industry, the political work and philosophy of Dr. Herman Scheerr, the godfather of IRENA and the book Energy Autonomy including the invention of feed-in tariffs. There were now many good reasons for Germany to switch to renewable energy and to increase energy conservation, and there are reasons to do so now. Fighting climate change Reducing energy imports Stimulating technology innovation and the green economy Reducing and eliminating the risks of nuclear Energy security Strengthening local economies and providing social justice. So- the drivers for change has not been ONE but many- and different for different interest groups- and over time. And that is very important for us to understand.
- Well- one way to look at the ways and means you can influence a local or global community –for the better, as I may hope- is the simple word: PESTO It’s from the Oil Community (from project development work) and it stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technology and Organisation. So- in simple terms: We can influence, develop or frame our new energy architectures- by developing a stakeholder relation or (policy) tools to create the conditions and constellations for change. As we look at our future- we can also use this frame- to identify “risks and opportunities” in our paths forwards. And start de-risking or managiing them Today – and as I look at our world frame- I would pledge for another lense.- for our realisations The lenses of : UN’s Global Community- Country City- Local Community- Science and Company- and the Coalitions of the Willing.
- But the future can be read and seen by the many “light-houses”, the innovation and change programs scattered around the globe. The signals and signs of new energy architecture become more and more real visible in the personal car mobility- where a wave and convergence of three technologies is going to smarten the car as we know it- from self-driving, self navigating and electric driven cars- we , and according to Industry expert- we are expected to see a “big shift” in consumer buying power and needs from 2020 onwards.. Another shift is and can already been seen around the houses: from distributed, microgrids, off-grids, self powered and heated homes- as now promoted by companies such as E-on in Germany and Solar City of Elon Musk or the Smart Cities of China, Middle-East and India… It's actually quite simple. On the moment that we embrace the principle from Me to We, and that our company or work is 'in service' of the wider community and we start taking decisions based on that principle -included the needs for future generations- our future flows and falls into place..As I spoke earlier briefly on the opportunity for the Energy Sector to embrace New Visions and New Architectures befit for the 21st century -and now on "Avant-garde" Leaders such as Carlos Ghosn (Renault/Nissan), Google Self driving cars, Elon Musk with Solar City and Tesla, E-on Company of Germany, Sustainable Housing and City Planners in North-West Europe - or the Sustainable Cities in UAE-Masdar, China- Tijanjin, Chonqing, Saudi Arabia, or the 100 smart cities of PM Modi of India- demonstrating to us the way and ways by which new energy architectures are today possible, feasible and scale-able.But they do not come by itself.Actually- they thrive best if we can create the "winning community constellations" in the market, customers, governments (/policy makers) , investment community, suppliers and energy service companies on location- "in- one-go".In the words of Carlos Ghosn:Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.(Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled PLV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self-driving and navigating new car concepts)The same is true for the roll-out of Solar City or the new E-on's . There where the technical/market eco-system is supportive and adaptive to embrace the changed and new-styled distributed energy architectures across urban communities- the flywheel will start to spin..Traditionally - the energy sector is quite conservative and hierarchical, and furthermore orientated towards the supply-side of the equation: Those sitting on the upstream reserves (be it coal, oil or gas- ie. the money) determine to a large degree the project, sales and infrastructure development of the energy sector over the value chain well into the consuming locations.However- the "new song and dance" in energy and energy architecture development may no longer be best served by this game played in corporate silo's ( top-down) , - but is most likely far better served and played if done more and more in balanced community (of the energy professionals) across the value chains.Building a "well-tuned orchestra and community" between government, business and business innovation, community which are ready, willing and prepared to realize true and truthful energy architecture innovations and changes. Big and Small.=== And we know that we have and are facing "great difficulties, complexities and challenges" in the continuance of "this great 20th century machine" in our near- and mid-term future in this industry. And not only on sustainability. Not only as we are accessing ever more remote, difficult, poisonous or environmental sensitive fields in our portfolio's of extraction and production, but also we are facing an explosion of energy demand around the globe: Now relate the above to today's approximately 250 BnUSD investment and revenue levels in the totality of the "cleantech - industry"- and the sums of money we put in R&D and innovation- and you may start to "see" and agree with me how "massively under-balanced" we yet are- in our overall world energy system: I wrote the following words (with some senior geology and energy futurists scientists) earlier: Today, all activities on our planet are fuelled by a daily energy supply of 225 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Roughly 80% comes from oil, natural gas and coal (fossil fuels). It is expected that in 2050 the total amount of energy that needs be produced will amount to 500-750 million boe per day. This figure is based on a worldwide population growth of 50% in the coming 40 years, and a higher average level of energy consumption (5 kW per capita or 120 kWh per capita per day[3]). How can we deliver this large amount of energy in a clean manner?[4] How does the transition path to 50 terawatt look like?[5] Now, if all people on this planet by then were to consume fossil (oil, gas, coal) fuel energy in the same way as people presently do in the West and wealthy parts of the emerging nations, we will be in for trouble, as we would need Five planets (for as much as we can understand now) to find and produce these resources. The present trend is exactly that. So, over the next decades the energy industry will need to find answers to the challenge. The clean-tech industry- the industry of renewable energy supply, smart energy infrastructures [6] and energy saving- will have to play a significant role, perhaps much larger than presently predicted or seen. But will the speed of developments and integration of the clean-tech industry and its innovations be in time for the market? How about the time needed in order to grow these solutions to scale, and to develop the capabilities into a reliable new energy infrastructure? How about the present strength and distribution of the existing resource base in the conventional coal, oil and gas resource system? Will the new frontier reserves such as shale oil and gas be sufficiently strong in order to balance the expected (rapid and steep) decline in the existing and large producing fields? Can (all of) these new frontier production reserves be actually produced- from an economic, ecological and societal point of view? So with this rise in complexity and uncertainties both on the demand side as well on the supply side of the world energy system, and in a socio-technical context, we may expect the world energy system perhaps to run against triple-A limits (affordability, availability, acceptability) or may become unstable (price volatilities, market swings, security or unrest, etc.).
- We have come to the conclusion of conclude what do we know of today and tomorrow? The world of today and tomorrow is in rapid acceleration. In the amount of people living on one planet, In the amount of new wealth creation and distribution. 3 billion people in the BRICS and emerging nations joining the middle-class, And in the need for energy. In order to have the comfort of mobility, housing, communication, school, health, jobs and life entertainment. So – our shared challenge is to discover and to create the circumstances and conditions, ie. accelerate the right innovations, create the right organizational forms, the right spirit, platforms and collaborations- in order to allow everybody to enjoy energy in abundance. That is part of the exciting journey we have taken in Energy For One World. IN our second module we will spend a little bit more time on the start in this exiting journey: building a vision for a sustainable society. Here and there. Now and tomorrow.. I am very excited about this module and the whole series, and look very much forwards to your continued interest and participation in this very exciting path forwards: learning to change and build the capabilities and capacities for deliveries.
- Building Sustainable Comunities Let’s look at this Energy For All iniative – and let’s start to look at the bottom of the pyramide The poor and rural communities. How are we to progress sustainable communities and how are we to bring energy to these villages? I come with two examples. One from India and one from Pakistan. And I will speak on the one in Pakistan only. In Pakistan, led by Dr. Akhter Hameed Khan, some very innovative work has been done to develop knowledge systems to support and maintain sustainable communities. In brief this work has consisted of: Mapping of local infrastructures and experiences, land us practices and physical structures Linking the rural with the national or global d evelopments: The knowledge and social capital generated through this physical and social mapping process has been integrated with large government and corporate sector development plans under the UN framework And making better use of Local Youth is trained and employed for mapping, local dialogue and gainful employment. These young workers also build bridges between the community and outside world (Context) As a matter of fact, the process of globalization has also led to (the process of) commercialization of rural village – of the agricultural, pastoral and fishing and hunting communities. This process has- at times- been accompanied by a intrusion of the physical, social and knowledge space of isolated rural settlements. Consequently land use, management of e.g. forest and natural resources, and traditional energy and water use practices have changed to the detriment of local environment and livelihood. In numerous communities socially responsible professionals and civil society organizations have initiated the sustainable development process of developing a more local body of knowledge, tools and programs to restore ecological balance, mitigate climate change, improve natural resource management and introduce efficient energy management practices to strengthen community resilience. Maintaining and protecting tradition, and blending this with modernity there where best and needed: A new form of Eco-modernity – a new form of collaboration between the outside support and the internal community- on a micro rural scale. As such: a very subtle, human and community-friendly approach. Not judging by what we see “as poor”- but more looking with fresh eyes and listening ears to the needs and see and feel what can “be rich”. Locally – in the cultural tradition. Much more sensitive- and far less commercial driven But let me be clear. At the bottom of the pyramid- and in our global community- people need help. Without our help- these people are chanceless and suffer. To that end- all the frames and programs of Prof. Jeffrey Sachs and Kandeh Yumkella are creating deserve our utmost attention and support- whereever we can === Scope of activities This approach has been used for holistic planning at local level and included themes relating to shelter, energy efficient houses, land, forest and natural resource use planning, water management, social forestry , sanitation and solid waste management. I have already depicted some of this work through my power point slides. ==
- But the world is a busy place. And the world is under rapid construction. It was already back in 2002, that the UN started to note that the global population was rapidly migrating into urban area’s. In fact – massive urban area’s.
- IN a global research survey done by McKinsey in 2011 over the top-600 cities in the world, McKinsey surveyed how these cities were to develop over the coming 10-15 years. Some remarkable facts came above table.And in McKinsey words: Quote The urban world is shifting. Today only 600 urban centers generate about 60 percent of global GDP. While 600 cities will continue to account for the same share of global GDP in 2025, this group of 600 will have a very different membership. Over the next 15 years, the center of gravity of the urban world will move south and, even more decisively, east. Today, major urban areas in developed-regions are, without doubt, economic giants. Half of global GDP in 2007 came from 380 cities in developed-regions, with more than 20 percent of global GDP coming from 190 North American cities alone. The 220 largest cities in developing-regions contributed another 10 percent. But by 2025, one-third of these developed-market cities will no longer make the top 600; and one out of every 20 cities in emerging-markets is likely to see its rank drop out of the top 600. By 2025, 136 new cities are expected to enter the top 600, all of them from the developing world and overwhelmingly—100 new cities—from China Unquote
- A 2014 city-study led by some German and US researchers, and with the objective to better understand what the effects of all those cities are on global sustainability- the following was observed: A most recent study of 274 cities by researchers from Germany and US concludes: - that it would make it a lot more feasible to meet climate targets if our (city) infrastructures did not require so much energy - It would be super-helpful if cities were to develop in an energy efficient way - Cities are all very different from each other, but we can identify types of cities that are similar to each other (in terms of energy use). I leave the other facts of their study for you to read. ==== By 2025, Emerging markets will have more households with income of $20,000 USD Or above than the developed economies The UN estimates that 4 Billion People – 53% of World Population- currently resides in Towns or cities. BY 2050- that will be 6.3 Billion. In 1950 it was under 750 million.!! The IPCC concludes that urban areas consume between 67% and 76% of global energy, And generate about 75% of Global Carbon Emission. Urban areas are projected to triple between 2000 and 2030. A sober conclusion. A fact- and I shall be honoust here- the Oil & gas companies knew already back in 2007/2008.
- And thus, and as the problems of sustainable cities became apparent- a group of majors of 18 megacities came together in London in 2005 and formed a cooperation on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The meeting resulted in an agreement to cooperate on reducing climate emissions by taking decisive and immediate action on a number of points, most notably the creation of procurement policies and alliances to accelerate the uptake of climate-friendly technologies and influence the market place. This was the start of the network. And of a more local and down-to-earth campaign and initiative. Today the group is mentioned the C-40, but has actual city membership, outreach and impact well over those 40 cities. === in the handout some more information of this City-led, Major led initiative. And You can also visit their website. The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40) is a network of the world’s megacities committed to addressing climate change. Acting both locally and collaboratively, C40 Cities are having a meaningful global impact in reducing both greenhouse gas emissions and climate risks. C40 brings together a unique set of assets and creates a shared sense of purpose. C40 offers cities an effective forum where they can collaborate, share knowledge and drive meaningful, measurable and sustainable action on climate change. The C40 Mission C40 is a global network of large cities taking action to address climate change by developing and implementing policies and programs that generate measurable reductions in both greenhouse gas emissions and climate risks. Working together since 2005 In October 2005, then Mayor of London Ken Livingstone convened representatives from 18 megacities to pursue action and cooperation on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The meeting resulted in an agreement to cooperate on reducing climate emissions by taking decisive and immediate action on a number of points, most notably the creation of procurement policies and alliances to accelerate the uptake of climate-friendly technologies and influence the market place. This was the start of the network. In 2006, Mayor Livingstone invited the Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI) to become its delivery partner, greatly strengthening both organisations with a shared sense of purpose and an efficient support network for delivering world-class projects that optimise emissions reductions. The network at this point had grown to 40 cities, and thus the name C40 was born. Serving as C40’s first Chair, Mayor Livingstone established the C40 Secretariat in London, set up the C40 Steering Committee and initiated the use of C40 workshops to exchange best practices amongst C40 Cities. In 2008, former Mayor of Toronto David Miller took over as C40 Chair. Highlights of his tenure included the Copenhagen Climate Summit for Mayors and the C40 Cities Mayors Summit in Seoul, both in 2009, as well as the launch of practical action initiatives for cities, such as the C40-CCI Climate Positive Development Programme and the Carbon Finance Capacity Building programme. In November 2010, New York City Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg began his tenure as C40 Chair. Key milestones in 2011 include the full integration of C40 with the CCI Cities Program by which C40 executives and staff are working in unison with CCI City Directors and programmatic teams to support climate action in cities. The work that the C40 Cities accomplishes is critical for reducing carbon emissions worldwide, but there is far more to be done, as President of the C40 Board, former C40 Chair, and 108th Mayor of New York City Mayor Bloomberg explains. While international negotiations continue to make incremental progress, C40 Cities are forging ahead. Collectively they have taken more than 4,700 actions to tackle climate change, and the will to do more is stronger than ever. As innovators and practitioners, our cities are at the forefront of this issue – arguably the greatest challenge of our time. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg Another highlight of 2011 was the C40 Cities Mayors Summit in Sao Paulo, where C40 announced new partnerships with the World Bank and ICLEI—Local Governments for Sustainability—to accelerate climate action in cities through streamlined financing, greenhouse gas accounting and uniform reporting. The release of two reports developed in collaboration with Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and ARUP, respectively, emphasized the critical role of measurement and transparency in tackling climate change in megacities. Rio de Janeiro Mayor Eduardo Paes began his tenure as C40 Chair in December 2013. Leading the Way We’re proud of what cities have accomplished since 2005, and we continue to lead the way on mitigating the risks of climate change with our innovative and effective approach.
- Energy import is growing in Europe and Europe would benefit from (a more active) management of the mix. Europe has an opportunity to re-think it’s present energy policies- and review the present fragmented gas distribution and national utility organizations. Choose between electrons or atoms. Choose between National or European wide energy policies. Choose on energy architectures of the 21st century. The European economy is needing attention, and should not be held ransom to rising or fluctuating energy prices or politics. Green Growth vs. Growth vs. Stagnation. Europe is to ask themselves what role the world and world energy system needs from it? And what does Europe ask from the World? Lessons from the financial crisis to the energy market? Europe has two strong ambitions with respect to its’pronounced Energy Union (for Energy Security and combat Climate Change: 40 % carbon emission reduction (GHG) from 1990 levels, 27% renewables, 27% energy efficiency (from 1990)- by 2030. See video : http://www.energypost.eu/vieuws-video-brussels-briefing-energy-special-energy-union-need-know-february-2015/ See article: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2014102401_en.htm My commments: Energy import is growing in Europe and Europe would benefit from (a more active) management of the mix. Europe has an opportunity to re-think it’s present energy policies- and review the present fragmented gas distribution and national utility organizations. Choose between electrons or atoms. Choose between National or European wide energy policies. Choose on energy architectures of the 21st century. The European economy is needing attention, and should not be held ransom to rising or fluctuating energy prices or politics. Green Growth vs. Growth vs. Stagnation. Europe is to ask themselves what role the world and world energy system needs from it? And what does Europe ask from the World? Lessons from the financial crisis to the energy market? Text on European Energy Union: Text from Energy Union: Europe’s Energy Union strongly linked to Energy Security (geopolitical realities) and climate change ambistions: http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/eu-energy-union-high-stakes-supply-security-document-leaked-22121?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=pulsenews EU Energy Union: High-stakes Supply Security Document Leaked Last week, the European Commission held its first orientation debate on the Energy Union in the college of the Commission. “It was the first time that all commissioners together had an in-depth discussion on the issue. And I can tell you that there was very broad agreement on the main features of the future Energy Union, an Energy Union that puts citizens at its core,” the Vice-President for Energy Union Maroš Šefčovič said in his opening speech at the Energy Union Conference in Riga (Latvia). Thanks to Alice Stollmeyer – an excellent source for the latest transpiring news on EU energy and climate policy in Brussels – who granted access on her website to an internal Commission discussion paper on the Energy Union (dated January 30) leaked to her, we are in a position to catch a glimpse of the preliminary outline of the future EU Energy Union. According to Ms. Stollmeyer, the EU Commission is expected to adopt this ‘Framework Strategy’ on February 25. The discussion paper starts out explaining why the EU needs an Energy Union and lists a slew of ‘ills’ as they relate to energy procurement in the EU: “We import 53% of our energy, which makes us the largest energy importer in the world, at a cost of 400 billion euro a year. Many Member States – especially those dependent on a single supplier or a single supply route – remain too vulnerable to supply shocks. 90% of our housing stock is energy inefficient. 94% percent of transport relies on oil products, of which 90% is imported. Collectively, we spend almost €110 bn per year – directly or indirectly – on energy subsidies, often not justified. Our energy infrastructure is ageing, and often not adjusted to the increased production from renewables. There is a need to attract investments, but the current market design and national policies offer insufficient predictability to potential investors. Our internal energy market is far from complete. Energy islands continue to exist and many markets, for instance in South-East Europe, are not properly connected to their neighbours. From 2012 to 2013 post-tax electricity prices for households increased on average 4.4%, while at the same time wholesale prices fell considerably. (…) For European companies, electricity prices are 40% above the US, and gas prices are even three to four times higher than in the US, which impacts the competitiveness of our industry, in particular our energy-intensive industries.” This extensive list leads to only one conclusion; namely, that “Europe has no choice: if it continues on the present path, the unavoidable challenge of shifting to a low-carbon economy will be made harder by the economic, social and environmental costs of having fragmented national energy markets.” As a consequence, the “move away from a fragmented system characterized by uncoordinated policies based on narrow national interests, leading to national barriers and energy-isolated areas,” is inevitable. So, what is “The Way Forward” in the Commission’s view? These are actually the most interesting paragraphs in the leaked discussion paper. The ‘energy security’ dimensions that need to be worked on read more like a ‘memorandum of understanding’ with respect to well-known, persistent but often latent issues, than a real actionable strategy. It begs the question of why something will get done this time, given these issues have persisted for at least a decade. First, it should not come as a surprise that “energy security depends on solidarity and trust between the Member States.” The paper states that “[j]oint approaches in the field of energy can make all parts of the European Union stronger, for instance in case of supply shortages or disruptions.” In general as well as in theory, that makes perfect sense. However, it is not conducive to solidarity if Germany pays effectively lower prices for Russian natural gas – admittedly because of long-term supply contracts – than Eastern European countries. Furthermore, the paper recognizes that European gas supply needs to be diversified – perhaps modeled along the lines of Northern Europe’s ‘multiple suppliers structure’: “Work on the Southern Gas Corridor must be intensified to enable Central Asian countries to export their gas to Europe. We will equally explore the full potential of liquefied gas, including as a back-up insurance.” Leaving the project funding part aside, the fact that the Southeastern flank of Europe is very much in geopolitical flux is often underappreciated. Greece is attempting to – at the very least – emancipate itself from Brussels and the EU’s tentacles with regard to Greek post-financial crisis economic policy, which includes stringent labor-market reforms and austerity. Additionally, Turkey’s EU membership has hung in the balance, with Ankara left to ponder its “candidate country” status for over a decade. The Southern Gas Corridor Source: Jamestown Foundation; Map used does not intend to make a declaration as for the ‘status’ of Crimea. Turkey, in particular, becomes a pivotal country for Europe’s future energy supply security if the decision is made in European capitals and Brussels that a good pragmatic business relationship with Russia after the Ukraine crisis is incompatible with Western values. However, the EU-membership leverage that Brussels used to have may have silently crept over to the Turkish side. To make matters even more complicated, Russia seems to have finally started to openly court Turkey as an energy partner. Russia as a crucial global energy producer and supplier carries substantial weight in a country projected to be next in line among countries which could realistically catch up with the so-called BRIC countries. Turkey has every intention to “take advantage of [the] hunger for energy in Europe and at home.” Note, if the EU has to pick a side between energy producing and transit countries, choosing the former may prima facie be the better play. In the paper, the EU Commission states, however, that it intends to pay particular attention “to upgrade the Strategic Partnership on energy with Ukraine, an important transit country with considerable energy efficiency potential.” Remember, compressor stations on Ukrainian territory are crucial components of the natural gas transport system in order for Russian natural gas to reach the EU. It is more likely than not that one day with alternative pipeline infrastructure in place – maybe from Russia via Turkey to the EU – Ukraine’s current status as important transit country will significantly diminish. Ironically, while Russia seems to already actively “reframe” and pursue this medium-term shift in its gas export strategy to Europe, the EU will probably still have to figure out when the appropriate time is to reframe its energy relationship with Russia: “At the appropriate time, we will consider reframing the energy relationship with Russia based on a level playing field in terms of market opening, fair competition, environmental protection and safety, for the mutual benefit of both sides,” the paper states. To put it into perspective, it would not be too far-fetched to compare Europe’s critical energy relationship with Russia to America’s pragmatic energy relationship with Saudi Arabia – especially before the advent of the US shale boom and even today. As for Greece, if for no other reason than its geostrategic location linking supplies from the Caspian Sea basin – and potentially at a later stage supplies from the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East – to the EU, Greece is critically important for the EU’s energy supply security as a pivotal transit country. In the cases of both Greece and Turkey, strategic foresight seems to dictate that these future pivotal transit countries enjoy upgraded strategic partnerships on energy with Brussels. Instead, the discussion paper mentions the Ukraine in this regard, and – to be clear – this makes sense at least in the medium term until alternative pipeline infrastructure is available to bypass the Ukrainian territory. Ideally, Greece should stay within the EU and in the case of Turkey the process to join the EU should be fast-tracked if the latter still wishes to do so. However, both Greece – in desperate need of further budgetary funding – and Turkey – with likely growing future energy needs due to demographic trends and economic growth – may find themselves entangled in Russia’s ‘Greater Black Sea region, effectively able to play gatekeeper to Central Asia and the Caspian energy resources. Oil and Gas Deposits in the Caspian Sea Basin & the Persian Gulf Source: PFC Energy via Stanford University Libraries Lastly, European Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy Miguel Arias Cañete recently made the following comment at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center in Washington DC: “when it comes to energy, do not put your faith in autocratic regimes.” Interestingly, the following EU statement of intention appears to be at odds with Cañete’s view: “As part of a revitalized European energy and climate diplomacy, the EU will use all its foreign policy instruments to establish strategic energy partnerships with producing and transit countries such as Algeria and Turkey; Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran; the Middle East and Africa.” Some of those countries feature political systems that could be described as autocratic. Overall, some of the “mutually-reinforcing and closely interrelated dimensions” in the Energy Union strategy require reassessment. While every effort should be made to finally ensure the realization of the ‘Southern Gas Corridor’ in order to diversify away from a potential Russian energy threat, it could turn out to be myopic to not properly understand the ‘energy security value’ of Greece and Turkey as future transit countries potentially replacing the Ukraine. It could be even worse to allow those countries to drift into the Russian sphere of influence, which would further complicate the EU’s future energy supply security situation. --
- 1st LNG export from Algeria (Azrew) in 1964 1st LNG import to Kuwait 2009 followed by Dubai 2010
- From Energy Post: http://www.energypost.eu/indias-energy-climate-change-challenge The US and India agreed on a climate deal during President Obama’s state visit to meet India’s prime minister Narendra Modi in January. Last time the president visited one of the world’s foremost developing economies, China, he signed an historic deal on climate change. As the world’s third largest emitter, India is coming under increasing pressure to follow suit. The new US-India pact is weaker than the agreement Obama signed in Beijing. But there are a number of good reasons India is reluctant to take strong action to curb its emissions in the short term. Carbon Brief takes a look at the factors likely to shape India’s energy and climate choices in the coming years, and what it means for the world’s efforts to tackle climate change. <img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7588" src="http://www.energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/India-graph-1.png" alt="India graph 1" width="600" height="301" />Credit: Rosamund Pearce / Carbon Brief Population and poverty India has become noticeably more progressive on climate change under prime minister Narendra Modi. It remains adamant that the world’s developed economies must shoulder most of the responsibility for curbing emissions, however. It has good reasons for this. More than 300 million people currently live in poverty in India. A similar number do not have access to electricity. Modi has made it his priority to address these related issues. Over the past decade, India’s economy has been significantly outpaced by China. Its per capita GDP is now significantly below China’s, and remains a long way off the US’s: <img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7589" src="http://www.energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/India-graph-2.png" alt="India graph 2" width="792" height="348" />Source: World Bank. Graph by Carbon Brief.That’s one reason India remains staunchly protective of its right to economic development. Modi was elected last May on a promise to prioritise the revival of India’s economy above all else. This is only going to get more challenging as India’s population continues to boom. By 2028, India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populated country, with 1.45 billion people: <img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7590" src="http://www.energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/India-graph-3.png" alt="India graph 3" width="795" height="472" />Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, mid-range projection. Graph by Carbon Brief.Ensuring India’s ever-expanding population has reliable electricity will be integral to its economic development. It will also mean a big increase in the country’s energy demand. India’s energy consumption is expected to rise 132 per cent by 2035, while electricity demand is likely to more than triple in the next 30 years, according to some estimates. That means making some major changes to its energy sector. India’s energy sector No one expects India to be able to meet such huge demand totally, or even mostly, with low-carbon energy sources. But that doesn’t mean India is going to single-handedly ruin the world’s efforts to cut emissions and tackle climate change. India’s economy is currently heavily reliant on coal, and that’s unlikely to change any time soon. Last year, almost 60 per cent of India’s installed power plants were coal-based: <img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7591" src="http://www.energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/India-graph-4.png" alt="India graph 4" width="513" height="308" />Source: EIA installed capacity. Graph by Carbon Brief.Many models that assume the world will take some action to cut emissions and tackle climate change allow for this. Under the IEA’s new policies scenario, where the world takes some action but misses its goal of preventing warming of more than two degrees, coal still accounts for 55 per cent of India’s electricity generation in 2040. And that’s assuming coal power plants become much more efficient in the meantime. Such long-term reliance on coal explains one of the Modi’s government’s least climate friendly policies: supporting its domestic coal industry. The government aims to double India’s coal production to one billion tonnes by 2019. That’s mainly because India currently uses more coal than it produces, as this graph shows: <img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7592" src="http://www.energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/India-graph-5.png" alt="India graph 5" width="795" height="438" />Source: EIAThat makes India heavily dependent on imports from Australia, Indonesia, South Africa and Canada. India’s energy minister Piyush Goyal in November announced a target of ending coal imports in the next two to three years, sending shockwaves through the industry. The government argues that India needs to develop its domestic energy production for the good of the economy. That means tackling the red tape and corruption that currently hobbles India’s domestic coal production. But it also means ramping up renewables. Modi’s manifesto promoted policies resembling US president Obama’s “all of the above” energy strategy, calling for the development of renewables and nuclear alongside gas and coal. Wind power currently accounts for about 70 per cent of India’s renewable energy capacity, and the government wants to add 10,000 megawatts more each year. Modi also wants to try and scale-up the solar power-driven economic revival he instigated as Gujarat governor, adding 100 gigawatts nationwide by 2022. In the IEA’s new policies scenario, renewables increase their share of electricity generation from 15 per cent in 2014 to 26 per cent in 2040. While India’s renewables sector is growing, it is nowhere near reaching its maximum potential, consultancy EY suggests. This graph shows the amount of capacity India could have if it maximised each technology’s potential. The dark segments show how much is already installed, the lighter segments show how much EY says India could add: <img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7593" src="http://www.energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/India-graph-6.png" alt="India graph 6" width="729" height="406" />Source: EY. Graph by Carbon Brief.As well as encouraging new industries and foreign investment, Modi hopes renewables can go some way to solving India’s electrification problem. He argues India’s rural communities may be better suited to the creation of renewables-based microgrids than joining India’s unreliable fossil-fuel based national grid. India’s grid currently loses about 23 per cent of its power during transmission through old wiring and theft. But, despite the expected renewables boom, they are expected to only provide for about 16 per cent of India’s projected energy demand in 2040 overall. Fossil fuels are projected to account for 75 per cent. That’s partly because lots of India’s increased energy demand will be for cooking and heating fuels, not just electricity. Over 800 million Indians use cookstoves that burn dung, wood, or other solid fuels to generate heat, many of them in rural communities. As India’s population increases, demand for these fuels is set to rise. The fuels used in the cookstoves release lots of particulate matter and greenhouse gases, such as methane, contributing to air pollution, climate change and hundreds of thousands of deaths each year. India’s government is trying to rollout a biogas cookstove programme to reduce the emissions from these stoves. Burning that less carbon-intensive fuel could prevent the emission of 0.5 to one billion tonnes of greenhouse gas, according to one study. So India is planning ways to boost the low-carbon energy sector, it’s just going to do it while also trying to expand its fossil fuel base. Modi’s government is unabashedly technology neutral when it comes to upgrading India’s archaic energy infrastructure. If a technology drives economic growth and can provide citizens with an improved standard of living, Modi is willing to exploit it, regardless of its carbon intensity. As a consequence, India’s energy-related emissions are set to more than double by 2040, the IEA suggests: <img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7594" src="http://www.energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/India-graph-7.png" alt="India graph 7" width="654" height="315" />Source: Data from IEA World Energy Outlook 2014. Graph by Carbon Brief.Emissions That may sound like bad news for the world’s efforts to tackle climate change. But India recognises its emissions can not increase indefinitely. The UK has said that it expects India’s emissions to grow in the near term, but to peak “around or shortly after 2030″. India is open to the idea of setting a peak emissions year, similar to China’s recent pledge, but wants its emissions to match China’s before curbing them some time between 2030 and 2050. That date reflects the fact that India continues to see emissions reduction targets as the preserve of the rich. One reason India holds so dearly to the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” – the idea that the most developed countries must take the earliest and biggest steps to cut emissions – is because it is still a small contributor to the problem, once its population is taken into account. India’s emissions from goods and services consumed within the country are only a fraction of those of their developed country counterparts. And the average Indian still emits much less carbon dioxide than people living in the US, Europe or even China: <img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7595" src="http://www.energypost.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/India-graph-8.png" alt="India graph 8" width="702" height="385" />Source: Global Carbon Project. Graph by Carbon Brief.The Daily Mail criticised Obama for leaving India “without inking a climate deal that formed much of the basis for his second trip to the subcontinent.” But India’s emissions, combined with its poverty, population and principles, meant Modi was never likely to agree to a climate deal similar to the US and China’s accord. In short, it is simply not ready, politically or economically, to accept such restrictions on its greenhouse gas emissions. New deal As expected, the new pact doesn’t include any firm commitment for India to curb its greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, Obama and Modi agreed a range of measures to help wean India off fossil fuels, and to cooperate in pursuing a new global climate deal. The most headline grabbing announcement was that the countries have reached a “breakthrough in understanding” on nuclear power. Foreign companies had been reluctant to invest in India’s nuclear industry over fears of being held liable in case of accidents. India agreed to implement some new and still vague provisions to reduce such liability, including a new insurance pool. The mechanisms don’t require new legislation, meaning US energy companies are now more likely to consider investing in India. In return, the US pledged up to $1 billion in clean energy financing. That funding expands on the $125 million Partnership to Advance Clean Energy Research programme supported by the US and Indian governments and the private sector. The US also offered to work with India’s institutes to develop new climate resilience tools, including downscaling climate models to a higher resolution for the Indian subcontinent. On the international climate negotiations, the US and India said in a joint-statement that both countries were “committed to working towards a successful outcome in Paris in 2015 of the conference of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the creation of a new global agreement on climate change.” Referring to the Paris deal, Obama told a press conference: “India’s voice is very important on this issue. Perhaps no country could potentially be more affected by the impacts of climate change and no country is going to be more important in moving forward a strong agreement than India.” Expanding on India’s position in the international climate negotiations, Modi said: “It is the responsibility of those, who are concerned about future generation, to become conscious about climate change and adopt policies so that we are able to give good future and good environment to next generation.” While India continues to make encouraging noises around taking action to tackle climate change, the US-India pact is weaker than the one Obama signed in Beijing last year. That is perhaps unsurprising, as the agreement broadly fits with Modi’s economic and energy plans and reflects India’s image of where it sits in the international climate negotiations. Editor’s Note This article was first published by the heartily recommended website The Carbon Brief and is republished here with permission. Energy to all, 100 smart cities, new infrastructure and transport, clean water and sewage to all. New programs for banking for all. Rural development programs, etc. etc. Nuclear from Russia, US Japan Inc- 40 Bn USD China Inc. – 40 Bn USD US inc- 1x Bn USD New Coal and Gas from Australia EU – Germany, France,UK, Scandinavia, Netherlands
- China is going to expand over coming decade- and is expected to put as much energy as “another America on the World Energy Map” within the coming 10 years.
- Two texts- Two possible scenario’s of what may be: http://www.energypost.eu/north-americanism-new-republican-energy-vision-ready-take-putin-climate/ Republican leaders in the US have developed a geopolitical strategy, which, according to famous energy author Michael Klare, is “nothing less than a plan to convert Canada and Mexico into energy colonies of the United States, while creating a North American power bloc capable of aggressively taking on Russia, China and other foreign challengers”. He warns that this vision of a “North American energy fortress”, which Republican presidential hopefuls are already campaigning for, and which is strongly backed by ExxonMobil and other oil companies, will prove to be a “nighmare of environmental degradation and global conflict”. Vindication for Allan Hoffman: the US has turned the corner on renewables: http://www.energypost.eu/vindication-allan-hoffman-us-turned-corner-renewables/ It has been 37 years since Dr Allan Hoffman gave President Jimmy Carter the plan that could have started America’s renewable revolution. The idea was shelved after Reagan was elected. Hoffman waited, as administration after administration ignored the potential, until Barack Obama was elected. The retired senior Department of Energy executive views the growth of US renewables during 2014 as a vindication of what he and his colleagues saw decades ago. Interview by Roy L. Hales of the ECOreport. It seems that the US in 2014 turned a corner. According to information published by the website Clean Technica, 53% of new installations came from wind and solar last year. In December the figure was almost 55%. Though natural gas was still the leading single energy source in the US last year, in terms of installations during 2014, its 7.5 GW of added capacity is overshadowed by close to 10 GW from the renewable sector. “If the Clean Technica chart (which includes an estimate for non-utility solar) is accurate, more than half of the new capacity added last year is from renewables. This is very significant. I pinch myself when I see these numbers and I am very grateful to see the transition move to the extent it has,” says Allan Hoffman.
- This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts. 1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in. 2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements. 3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures –as it develops.
- Our Exploration & Production business searches for and recovers oil and natural gas around the world. Many of these activities are carried out as joint venture partnerships, often with national oil companies. Our Gas & Power business liquefies natural gas and transports it to customers across the world. Its gas to liquids (GTL) process turns natural gas into cleaner-burning synthetic fuel and other products. It develops wind power to generate electricity and invests in solar power technology. It also licenses our coal gasification technology, a cleaner way of turning coal into chemical feedstocks and energy. Our Oil Sands business, the Athabasca Oil Sands Project, extracts bitumen from oil sands in Alberta, western Canada and converts it to synthetic crude oils. Our Oil Products business makes, moves and sells a range of petroleum-based products around the world for domestic, industrial and transport use. Its Future Fuels and CO2 business unit develops fuels such as biofuels and hydrogen and synthetic fuels made from natural gas (GTL Fuel) and potentially from biomass; and leads company-wide activities on CO2 management. With 46,000 service stations, ours is the worldﾕs largest single- branded fuel retail network. Our Chemicals business produces petrochemicals for industrial customers. They include the raw materials for plastics, coatings and detergents used in the manufacture of textiles, medical supplies and computers.
- Chapter 2 describes the Opportunity Realisation Process.
- Better Refinery processes to crack heavy oil Energy Intensity Clean water Site restoration Chemicals and spills controls
- A complex set of elements in decision-making on nuclear power Policies concerning nuclear power will remain an essential feature of national energy strategies, even in countries which are committed to phasing out the technology and that must provide for alternatives. Global nuclear power capacity increases by almost 60% in our central scenario, from 392 GW in 2013 to over 620 GW in 2040. However, its share of global electricity generation, which peaked almost two decades ago, rises by just one percentage point to 12%. This pattern of growth reflects the challenges facing all types of new thermal generation capacity in competitive power markets and the specific suite of other economic, technical and political challenges that nuclear power has to overcome. Growth is concentrated in markets where electricity is supplied at regulated prices, utilities have state backing or governments act to facilitate private investment. Of the growth in nuclear generation to 2040, China accounts for 45% while India, Korea and Russia collectively make up a further 30%. Generation increases by 16% in the United States, rebounds in Japan (although not to the levels prior to the accident at Fukushima Daiichi) and falls by 10% in the European Union. Despite the challenges it currently faces, nuclear power has specific characteristics that underpin the commitment of some countries to maintain it as a future option. Nuclear plants can contribute to the reliability of the power system where they increase the diversity of power generation technologies in the system. For countries that import energy, it can reduce their dependence on foreign supplies and limit their exposure to fuel price movements in international markets. In a Low Nuclear Case – in which global capacity drops by 7% compared with today – indicators of energy security tend to deteriorate in countries that utilise nuclear power. For example, the share of energy demand met from domestic sources is reduced in Japan (by 13 percentage points), Korea (by six) and the European Union (by four) relative to our central scenario. Nuclear power is one of the few options available at scale to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions while providing or displacing other forms of baseload generation. It has avoided the release of an estimated 56 gigatonnes of CO2 since 1971, or almost two years of total global emissions at current rates. Annual emissions avoided in 2040 due to nuclear power (as a share of projected emissions at that time) reach almost 50% in Korea, 12% in Japan, 10% in the United States, 9% in the European Union and 8% in China. The average cost of avoiding emissions through new nuclear capacity depends on the mix and the costs of the fuels it displaces, and therefore ranges from very low levels to over $80/tonne. Almost 200 reactors (of the 434 operational at the end of 2013) are retired in the period to 2040, with the vast majority in Europe, the United States, Russia and Japan; the challenge to replace the shortfall in generation is especially acute in Europe. Utilities need to start planning either to develop alternative capacity or to continue operating existing plants years in advance of nuclear plants reaching the end of their current licence periods. To facilitate this process, governments need to provide clarity on their approach to licence extensions and details of the regulatory steps involved well ahead of possible plant closures. We estimate the cost of decommissioning nuclear plants that are retired in the period to 2040 at more than $100 billion. Considerable uncertainties remain about these costs, reflecting the relatively limited experience to date in dismantling and decontaminating reactors and restoring sites for other uses. Regulators and utilities need to continue to ensure adequate funds are set aside to cover these future expenses. Public concerns about nuclear power must be heard and addressed. Recent experience has shown how public views on nuclear power can quickly shift and play a determining role in its future in some markets. Safety is the dominant concern, particularly in relation to operating reactors, managing radioactive waste and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Confidence in the competence and independence of regulatory oversight is essential, especially as nuclear power spreads: in our central scenario, the number of economies operating reactors rises from 31 to 36 as newcomers outnumber those that phase out nuclear power. The cumulative total of spent nuclear fuel doubles to more than 700 thousand tonnes over the projection period, but, to date, no country has opened a permanent disposal facility to isolate the most long-lived and highly radioactive waste produced by commercial reactors. All countries that have ever produced radioactive waste should have an obligation to develop a solution for permanent disposal.
- http://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/sustainability/latest_thinking/greenhouse_gas_abatement_cost_curves
- DID YOU KNOW? Year the 1st offshore wind farm was built in Europe: 1991 Number of offshore wind farms now operating in Europe: 66 Number of people now employed in the European offshore wind industry: 58,000 World’s largest offshore wind farm: The London Array % of Denmark’s electricity supplied by wind power: 30% London ARRAY Facts and Figures An offshore area of 100km2 175 wind turbines Two offshore substations Nearly 450km of offshore cabling One onshore substation 630MW of electricity Enough power for nearly half a million UK homes a year – two thirds of the homes in Kent CO2 savings of 925,000 tonnes a year The remarkable levels of activity during 2012, with 84 foundations, 175 wind turbines, 178 array cables and three export cables installed. October that year saw the first turbine producing power, with the final one coming on line in April 2013. Since then, the operation and maintenance team has focused on the performance and output of the wind farm. Operational Milestones: London Array’s first winter of full operation (October 2013 to March 2014) saw the wind farm generate 1,500 GWh (1.5 TWh) of clean power – equivalent to the annual consumption of around 325,000 British households – and ahead of target. January 2014 was a record month with more than 306 GWh of electricity exported, some 14 GWh on 6 January alone. February came a close second with just under 306 GWh. The good performance was helped by unusually windy weather which, combined with high availability, meant the turbines were able to capitalise on the near-perfect conditions to achieve very high load factors At the end of April 2014, London Array’s net output from when the first turbine came on line reached 3 TWh – saving some 1,290,000 tonnes in carbon dioxide output. Cape Wind It is interesting to note – that the application for filing of Cape Wind was done back in 2001. It took some 14 years of legal and commercial scale preparation before construction of this project actually could take place. Cape Wind is nearing construction to become America’s first offshore wind farm. Cape Wind will consist of 130 Siemens 3.6-megawatt offshore wind turbines with a capacity of 468 megawatts. The project will be located in Federal waters off the coast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, on Horseshoe Shoal in Nantucket Sound, the most technically optimal offshore wind power site in the United States.
- Dimensions of the Farm: 3,5 hectares 160,000 homes 1,5 Bn USD 550 MW 8 million panels If we do this 1000 times, then we can power 160 million homes= America (USA)= 30-40% of total energy. How long does it take us to get there? Understanding that doubling of capacity in the industry does take / or may take time. Assume: Only 6 hours a day 15% efficiency.
- Ray Kurzweil, the world’s foremost expert on exponential growth curves, increasingly appears to be right in his prediction that like computer chips and Moore’s Law, solar power is on an exponential growth curve. Averaging 65% compound growth rate for years now, the economies of scale in solar panel manufacturing are beginning to push prices low enough to hit grid parity, i.e. the same price as fossil fuels. Although solar power is currently only 1% of America’s energy mix, as Ray Kurzweil points out, on an exponential growth curve, 1% is half way. Only 7 more doublings makes it 100%. This incredible growth is creating new markets and business opportunities, and a new solar business ecology is beginning to emerge. Particularly around the solar industry’s biggest success story: home solar service. Solar service brings together financing, installation, insurance and maintenance to give customers solar power, usually with lower electricity bills, and with little to no money down. It’s a win-win-win for investors, solar service providers and customers, and understandably, business is booming. New business partnerships and synergies across a diverse range of industries are starting to capitalize on its success. Research studies show that car buyers are 23% more interested in buying an electric vehicle or hybrid if they’re also offered a green fuel alternative, like home solar. That’s why car companies like Honda, with its new range of electric cars, are now forming partnerships to sign up their electric car customers with home solar financing deals. It’s an effort to make ‘sunleaded’ America’s #1 fuel. And just as owning an electric car can lead the buyer to favor green home-grown electricity, a home solar installation can lead the customer into other green home energy improvements like insulation, energy efficient lightbulbs, and other upgrades. That’s why home improvement companies like Home Depot are also getting into the solar game. They are having fantastic success signing their customers up with solar service deals with companies like Sunrun, the largest home solar service in America. Home solar is also becoming interesting to the construction industry. When the city of Lancaster (in the sun-drenched Mojave desert) made solar panels mandatory for all new construction, the building industries initially protested, but are quickly changing their minds as they see the potential profits of the renewable energy market. Now they are even hosting events in support of Lancaster’s legislation. One of the most notable interests in home solar is coming from the finance communities who are rapidly scaling up investment strategies. For example, Sunrun has attracted enough capital to support the purchase of $1.5 billion in solar systems from investors including U.S. Bancorp. And these industries are just the start. Home solar is expected to spawn new markets in roofing and construction materials, maintenance, accessories. Plus it can create powerful demand for entirely different sectors like grid level electricity storage, batteries and nanotechnologies. As solar’s significant growth continues, an entire ecosystem of solar-related business is emerging just as rapidly to support it.
- Liebreich: 10 predictions for clean energy in 2015 by Michael Liebreich Chairman of the Advisory BoardBloomberg New Energy FinanceTwitter: @MLiebreich For the last two years, I have drawn on Russian imagery to illustrate the state of the clean energy industry. In 2013, it was the battle of Borodino: the clean energy sector had suffered a bruising time, but it had survived and was poised to regain ground. In 2014, it was the River Neva in St Petersburg which provided the analogy for an energy industry frozen for aeons, but about to undergo profound and rapid phase change. This year I want you to go back in time, over 66m years. Dinosaurs roam the earth – in fact they dominate it. They are magnificent creatures, honed by 135m years of competition, huge and fearsome. The very earth trembles as they walk. Between the dinosaurs scurry some little furry creatures, mammals. No match for the dinosaur’s vast bulk and power, they stay out of their way, operating in ecological niches too small for the dinosaurs to exploit, scavenging scraps and hunting insects. They are industrious, clever, quick and adaptable. They are multiplying and learning, and gaining in confidence, though they are almost imperceptible to the dinosaur eye. In the distance a herd of Diplodocoals, the biggest of the dinosaurs, is grazing. Slow-moving and with tiny brains, they can chew their way through almost any environment in which they find themselves. As they have done so, they have found themselves in competition with the aggressive Gasontosaurus, and they seem to be losing. The future isn’t looking great for Diplodocoal but they have been around for a long time and are not disappearing soon. Suddenly, a fight breaks out! A pack of Velocifrackers has been chasing an adult male Tyrannosaurus Saudi, but now it turns on its tormentors, catching them unawares and inflicting terrible wounds. As they thrash around, the huge beasts knock down trees and tear up the ground around them. Naturally everyone stops what they are doing to watch the action. Right now in the energy sector, everyone is transfixed by the big fight going on in the oil industry between conventional and unconventional production, OPEC vs non-OPEC, Saudi Arabia versus the frackers. It is one of those times when energy breaks through onto the front pages, and suddenly everyone is an expert. Every energy story has to be rewritten to fit around the main narrative of the Great Oil Price Crash. Of course it is an important story. As we explained in our December press release, the oil price crash will have a range of impacts on the clean energy sector, more severe in the case of businesses directly competing with oil, like biofuels and displacing diesel generators, more moderate elsewhere. But it is probably not the most important story of the past 12 months for the clean energy sector. The bounce-back in global clean energy investment, up 16% to $310bn after two years of decline, was probably the single most significant development of 2014. EON’s historic announcement that it is splitting into two, selling off its bulk generation and concentrating on its renewable and consumer-facing activities, is another contender. NextEra’s acquisition of Hawaiian Electric Industries was described by its chairman and CEO as “a postcard from the future of the electric industry”. Google’s $3.2bn acquisition of Nest probably said more about the direction of energy technology than any other development in 2014. And ACWA Power’s winning bid of less than 6 US cents per kWh to build 200MW of unsubsidised solar in Dubai is going to set a new benchmark for PV costs, clearly below the price achievable by natural gas. But all these are “mammal stories”. The press, right now, is only interested in “dinosaur stories”. Welcome to 2015!It is time for me to try to don my pith helmet, venture out into Jurassic Park, and present my 10 predictions for the year. In doing so, I have drawn on help from Bloomberg New Energy Finance chief editor Angus McCrone, as well as our teams of specialist analysts covering all aspects of the transition to a cleaner energy system. 1. FOSSIL PRICES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE Bloomberg New Energy Finance does not currently produce an oil price forecast. Having said that, we do have a view, as described in the accompanying article, and that view is that we are in for a few years of low oil prices. We do not buy the “flash crash” theory that after inflicting sufficient pain on US unconventional producers, the Saudis will tighten the taps before year-end and drive oil prices back above $100/barrel. Indeed, I would be very surprised to see a price above $60/barrel by year-end, and in the longer term I see oil trading in the $60 to $90/barrel range. In the US, many marginal natural gas producers have been kept afloat by selling liquids into the oil market. The low oil price means they will spend the year cutting their drilling programmes, going out of business, being acquired, or handing the keys to their creditors. Although this will remove some natural gas supply, it will barely do anything to push up prices. Nor, in the short term, will there be any relief from new sources of demand, whether from transportation, export, new industrial projects or pipelines into Mexico or New England, where prices have remained high. Barring a very cold winter, we expect Henry Hub gas to remain in the $3 to $4/MMBtu range for at least the next year, while new sources of demand might produce a somewhat tighter market in 2016. In Europe and Asia we expect further falls in the price of natural gas, on top of those already seen. The spot price for LNG in Asia dipped below $9/MMBtu for the first time in at least four years, down from the $12-18 range; European gas prices are hovering between $9 and $10/MMBtu, down from the $11 to $13 range where they have spent the last few years. The oil price fall, the persistently weak economy, a mild winter and high storage levels look set to bring about even lower gas prices in Europe during the course of this year. Prices in Asia will also weaken, although not quite as far. On the supply side, significant new natural gas sources are being brought on-stream. Over Christmas, the first shipment of LNG left Australia’s Curtis liquefaction plant, bound for Asia, one of a number of new Australian facilities coming on stream in the coming two years. A wild card could come from shale gas in China, though it looks more and more like taking quite a few years to come to market in volume. Tempering the overhang of new supply, however, Asian natural gas consumption remains robust. Demand from China, India, South Korea and South-East Asia continues to grow. Japan is finding it hard to restart more than a few nuclear power stations, and still looking for ways of replacing soaring post-Fukushima fuel oil and coal imports with gas. On balance, while we see prices continuing to come under pressure, we don’t see a collapse on the cards. 2. CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT STRUGGLES TO MATCH 2014 You might be surprised at this one, given the strong investment figures from last year, the sector’s increasing competitiveness, and the confidence that low oil prices are not a show-stopper. There are several reasons why clean energy investment growth might stall in 2015. The first is that 2014′s figure of $310bn will be a tough act to follow. It was up 16% on 2013, it was less than 3% below the all-time record, of $318bn in 2011, and indeed it could yet be revised higher in the months ahead if Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s data hawks in Cape Town and elsewhere spot more deals. The second reason is that the 2014 total relied on a couple of features that are unlikely to recur. One was a spurt of large offshore wind financings, adding up to a record $19.4bn in total, one-and-a-half times the figure for 2012 and 2013 combined. The other was a jump in public market equity raised by clean energy companies to $18.7bn, a seven-year high. With sector share prices, measured by the WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index, or NEX, now nearly 20% below their March 2014 high, public market investment, at least for the first half of 2015, is likely to be weak. There will be one other bit of grit in the engine this year too. The jump in the US currency’s exchange rate (in the last year up 22% versus the euro, 15% against the yen, 9% against a basket of currencies) is likely to depress the dollar value of investment outside the US in 2015. We are optimistic about the GW capacity of new onshore wind and PV that will be installed in 2015 (see sections below), and there may well be a burst of new investment-stimulating policy ahead of the Paris COP21 climate change conference in December. India could be a star performer in clean energy this year, as Narendra Modi’s renewables-friendly government targets a doubling in solar installations to some 2.3GW, and the reinstatement of accelerated depreciation for wind projects drives a jump in investment activity. If you push me for a 2015 investment figure, I would go for something in the $280bn to $320bn range. In other words, probably just short of last year’s figure, but with just a chance of exceeding it if things pick up through the course of the year. Finally, green bonds: these have been one of the great success stories of the past two years, increasing from a paltry $3-5bn per year between 2007 and 2012, then suddenly jumping to $14bn in 2013 and $39bn last year. In 2015 we expect to see further rapid growth. No fewer than 75 major banks, investors and issuers have now signed up to the Green Bond Principles. There have been no major controversies and demand for green bonds has grown in line with supply. Most new issues have been healthily over-subscribed and have got away at the low end of their yield range, a very positive sign for the future. We see the volume of green bonds doubling again this year to around $80bn. It should be noted that BNEF tracks green bonds separately from total investment in clean energy: total investment is counted at the point at which it is committed to projects, companies and research, not when funds are raised. Where we add, for instance IPO proceeds, we then adjust the totals to remove double-counting. So our figure for total investment takes into account the clean energy assets financed by green bonds, not the green bonds themselves. 3. IT’S STILL ALL ABOUT THE COSTS, STUPID The last five years have delivered formidable improvements in the cost-competitiveness of PV, and to a more modest extent, wind power. After a pause in 2014, I expect to see renewed progress this year. The oil price plunge may help to bring this about, because a lower levelised cost of electricity for gas-fired generation in some countries will force solar and wind developers to respond with keener prices themselves. I have a bit of an unfair advantage here, because I am writing this during January, having already seen what will clearly be one of the bellwether deals of 2015: ACWA Power’s extraordinary 5.84 US cents per kWh winning bid to build 200MW of solar PV on behalf of the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA). In fact ACWA offered to go to 5.4 cents per kWh if DEWA awarded them the contract for a whole GW. At the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi last week, there was much debate about whether 5.84 cents could be replicated, or whether it was an artificially low price. Dubai has superb solar resources, ACWA was able to obtain 86% leverage from local commercial banks because of the stability of its off-taker, and the tariff will be in place for 25 years. As a major developer, ACWA has a lot of leverage over equipment suppliers – it plumped for First Solar panels. So the conclusion must be that although 6-cent solar is certainly not going to be the norm, it is certainly the new benchmark. Around the world, solar project developers will be sharpening their pencils and seeing how close they can get. We are leaving behind the world of 15-cent solar, just as we have left behind the world of 30-cent solar and 50-cent solar within a few short years. Soon even Bjorn Lomborg, Dieter Helm, Matt Ridley and Martin Wolf will have to admit it. Another thing we will be seeing is a narrowing of the surprisingly large gulf between PV system costs in cheap markets such as Germany, and that in expensive ones like the US – particularly California – and Japan. The expensive markets will get cheaper as scale and competition grow, which they will. We also expect to see the fruits of some of the initiatives aimed at squeezing expense out of the PV value chain – using more tailored pastes, new structures and better printing techniques, reducing material waste in manufacturing, using more economical fixings, cheaper inverters, and so on. And PV developers will be able to secure more financial leverage, as more investors become comfortable with the economics of solar power, enabling lower prices to produce the same equity returns. In offshore wind, we should see cost reduction thanks to an unlikely friend, oil. A $100-plus crude price meant intense competition for large crane vessels, and therefore high charter rates. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the cost of hiring such a vessel has fallen by more than half in the last year, and when we are talking about many tens of thousands of dollars per day, that is a big deal. In onshore wind, lower oil prices will cut transport costs for the large components such as blades, nacelles and tower sections. Geothermal may also benefit from lower rig rates, but since projects take so long to prepare, the effect of that during 2015 is likely to be minimal. 4. PARIS COP21: MORE LIGHT SHOW THAN METEORITE The Paris climate change conference in December is the biggest fixture in the climate calendar since Copenhagen in 2009. To pursue the dinosaur theme, the climate community are dearly hoping it will prove to be a vast meteorite, streaking across the sky to deliver a long-overdue extinction event. The reality is rather different. As is well-known, I have never bought the narrative that what the world needs most in order to address climate change is a binding top-down agreement assigning a carbon budget to each nation for all time. I am a relentless bottom-upper – favouring action on the ground over multilateral talks – and I am very much encouraged by what I see at levels around us: concrete and effective initiatives at national level, led by municipalities, mayors, companies, individuals and sectors, as well as bilaterally and plurilaterally, and the emergence of a very convincing set of technical solutions. In terms of bilateral agreements, last November’s US-China deal was the most significant development on the climate front for years. As we speak there is an ongoing plurilateral negotiation under the auspices of the World Trade Organization, aiming for a trade deal covering environmental goods, perhaps to be announced by year-end. However, we have also seen India continue to refuse to make any significant pledge in bilateral talks with the US, a position it will most likely maintain in Paris, to the detriment of any effective outcome. I believe the best we can hope for is that the UNFCCC process does not impede progress on all these fronts, in particular investment in clean energy and infrastructure, and perhaps that it provides some overall encouragement. That may sound unambitious, but the collapse of Copenhagen and the fiasco of rebuilding the climate negotiations thereafter set back the cause of clean energy considerably. The way the Paris talks are structured, it is possible to be optimistic about this limited goal. There is little talk of a top-down, binding deal structured around carbon budgets. Most likely, a deal will emerge, structured around what used to be called “pledge and review”. In other words, each country will state what it is prepared to do, and then there will be some process of totting up commitments and pushing for more ambition in subsequent negotiating sessions. It will be denounced as unambitious by activists, but the reality is that it will be a decent outcome. With any luck there will be general acceptance that the Kyoto approach, hobbling the economies of the developed world but allowing the developing world free license to emit, will be dead. But that may be a hope too far. 5. ELECTRIC VEHICLES TOUCH THE BRAKES When world oil prices were above $100 per barrel this summer, we felt we were set for nearly 400,000 electric vehicle (EV) sales globally in 2015, up from last year’s 290,000. With oil prices languishing around $50 per barrel, the EV market is inevitably going to fall short of those figures. The biggest impact of cheaper oil, however, is likely to be on sales of hybrid cars, not EVs. Some buyers of electric vehicles, for instance those plumping for the Tesla S or BMW i8, are making their decisions in principle, not based on economics. Even those buying mid-range EVs, like the Leaf and the VW e-Golf, rarely make total cost of ownership calculations – it is just too hard, particularly when no one knows the resale value of these cars. So, while the drop in oil prices makes electric vehicles less attractive in theory, it does not change the sticker price, which is all about those pesky battery costs, less any subsidy. What we are also seeing is that where EVs are being adopted very rapidly, it is as much to do with driver perks, like the right to share the single-occupant car lane, free use of ferries, exemption from congestion charging and the availability of charging infrastructure. Again these are things which are being offered more frequently, and are not affected by oil prices. The Chinese EV market has been “challenging”, to use the words of Tesla Motors chairman Elon Musk, but the country nevertheless continues to bet on EVs as one of the main ways of dealing with its desperate urban pollution problem. This is a position likely to be adopted by more and more mayors around the world as the health impacts of diesel pollution are better understood. A landmark ruling by the European Court of Justice in November last year opens the way for any EU citizen to take his or her government to court over failure to address air quality breaches – and it is hard to see any meaningful action in European cities not including increased support for electric vehicles. Finally, although in the US there are signs that some Americans are once again turning to larger cars, most buyers will wonder how long oil prices will stay below $50. My forecast, therefore, is for continued growth in the EV market in 2015, but at a slower rate than 2014′s 40%, with the eventual sales total around 15% up at 330,000. 6. SOLAR SOLID WITH 55GW Our prediction for solar in 2015 is that the world will add more than 55GW of capacity, and indeed, if the sector gathers steam during the year as we think it might, it could reach as much as 60GW, up from a record of just under 50GW last year. The manufacturing capacity is certainly there, and investors are increasingly happy holding solar assets, as evidenced by the surge of yieldcos during the past two years and the ease with which green bonds are being placed. The continuing solar success story will be driven mainly by increasing competitiveness, as discussed above, supported by a growing confidence among investors and policy-makers that solar is indeed a cheap source of daytime power. In in the developing world, it can quickly help to close the energy access gap, and in the developed world it can play an important role in meeting peak demand, in particular where there is heavy air-conditioning demand. As solar gains in market share we will see more territories imposing taxes on rooftop PV, following on the heels of Germany and Austria last year. Other European countries, and some US states, are among the places that might introduce an impost to try to ensure that small-scale solar users contribute to the cost of the grid. The most exciting change in a business-as-usual year may well be the spread of PV to more and more localities in Africa and India, both rooftop and projects, as the entrepreneurial effort fans out from early-moving countries such as Kenya and Rwanda, and Prime Minister Modi’s ambitious vision for solar takes shape. 7. HIGH WINDS DELIVER NEARLY 60GW Last year saw a record 51GW of wind capacity added worldwide, with China, the US, Brazil, Germany and India the biggest markets. In 2015, we expect to see this figure beaten handsomely, with some 58GW added, nearly 55GW of that being onshore and more than 3GW offshore. Apart from German onshore, where installations will fall back after the rush to take advantage of a tariff that expired on 1 January, most of the other big markets will see growth. The US will see particularly strong activity, with anything up to 10GW added, as projects that qualified for the Production Tax Credit in 2013 or during the short-lived extension at the end of last year, reach the construction stage. Even though the number of new GW installed will be up, dollar investment in wind is likely to be down in 2015 from the record $99.5bn figure achieved last year. This is because there is a lag of a year or more between investment decision and project completion, and in 2015 policy uncertainty in key markets such as German and US onshore and UK offshore is likely to hold back new financings. 8. LOTS OF SIZZLE, A LITTLE STEAK IN CONNECTED HOMES AND POWER STORAGE Home energy management, innovations such as smart thermostats and the “connected home”, are really set to catch the consumer imagination in 2015. Nest will continue to run out its slick advertising, Apple and Honeywell are now pushing their Lyric, British Gas is pushing Hive, and so on. 2015 should see progress towards more systematic products – smart thermostats that can talk to the boiler and process a weather forecast – as well as the integration of various services on one platform. US-based security firm ADT has secured one million customers for its connected home platform, leveraging its strong position in burglar alarms. All this should open up the chance for households to take advantage of time-of-use electricity pricing. Regulators in many countries are looking to require utilities to offer this, and indeed Italy and Ontario already do so. Large-scale uptake of demand-side management technologies is likely to be faster in the US, where air conditioning is a key part of the load, than in Europe. The prize for the power system as a whole will be much greater flexibility to cope with peaks and troughs in demand and in variable generation from wind and solar. However, although it will become much more common to include smart home products in new-build housing, their overall penetration into housing stock will remain in the single-digit percent in even the most enthusiastic countries. The fact is most consumers are not ready to retrofit their homes with a new and complex system, even if the economics makes sense. And falling utility bills due to lower natural gas prices are not going to help. So it is with storage. 2014 saw at least one big milestone – the announcement of the Tesla gigafactory – as well as a plethora of reports claiming that grid defection is about to hit utilities in the gut. However, our analysis of Germany and Australia, and an upcoming analysis of the US, show that this claim is premature. It is clear that storage is an area enjoying a lot of research and development activity, corporate dollars, experimentation, policy interest, pilot projects, and very fast price declines. We predict some big milestones in 2015 – average storage system prices will continue to fall, at least one more 100MW-plus project will be launched, and more major corporations will enter the market. Overall, we expect to see a hefty 400-500MW of new storage capacity added this year, excluding pumped hydro, up from little more than 100MW in 2014. Most of it will be grid-level power storage for transmission and distribution, or residential and commercial storage, rather than bolt-ons to wind farms or solar parks. The US, Japan and South Korea will see much of the growth. However, those hoping for the arrival of either a GW market for grid storage, or of a mass market in home storage, will have to wait a few more years. 9. COAL GETS BURNT 2015 looks like being another miserable year for the black stuff, and I do not mean Guinness. Coal is under fire from all directions. The price of its nearest base-load rival, natural gas, is either low (the US) or going lower (elsewhere), as described above; environmental regulations are cracking down on emissions in big economies such as the US and China; and carbon prices in Europe are likely to trend upwards during the year as policy-makers support a Market Stability Reserve to prevent withdrawn allowances returning to the market. With electricity demand still lagging far behind GDP in developed countries, and rooftop solar helping itself to more of the market, it looks like coal will end up like the child without a seat in a game of musical chairs. Expect to see more coal-fired power station phase-outs and mine closures, hold-ups in building railheads and port facilities, and a growing consensus among climate-aware institutional investors that holding on to investments in coal is simply a risky business. 2015 will likely to see coal identified by the divestment movement as the weakest steer, given that the market cap of publicly quoted coal companies is just $250 billion, compared to around $5 trillion for oil and gas companies. Of course, this will not be the end for coal. For one thing, there are nearly 2TW of coal-burning capacity worldwide, and some emerging economies will add more, partly for energy security or balance of trade reasons. That capacity will go on firing for many, many years to come. Also, the long slide in the international coal price, from $130-a-tonne in 2011 to $60 now, and perhaps lower still this year, will cushion the competitiveness of this fossil fuel against gas and renewables. As happened with oil, if you erode its market, then its price will fall and its competitiveness is shored up. And who knows: the world may start talking seriously again about carbon capture and storage in 2015. 10. NO SLEEP FOR M&A BANKERS My final prediction is that 2015 will be the beginning of a record boom for energy mergers and acquisitions. Many of the trends we have been tracking for years are coming to a head, and they will drive a significant restructuring in both the utility and oil and gas sectors. EON’s split into two, and NextEra’s acquisition of Hawaiian Electric Industries, are just the first shots in a value-chain revolution that will rip through utilities in the next five years. In justifying EON’s split, CEO Johannes Teyssen explained that electricity retailing and bulk generation are as different as football and handball. “They are both ball sports, but not even Bayern Munich could survive in a handball league,” as he put it. This logic is spot-on, and inescapable. Expect to see many more utilities, or as the Australians call them, “gen-tailers”, separate their generation and retailing assets. While the generating assets, particularly when they are heavily dependent on coal and nuclear, might look like the power sector’s equivalent of a “bad bank”, the retailing part is where the innovation, and hence perhaps higher margins, are going to be. So while the generation assets look set to be sold off – and perhaps these will be attractive to some – there will also be acquisitions to be made at the retailing end of things, to bring in new services and skills. Where regulation allows it, we may even see acquisitions or mergers between telecoms and electricity companies. As for the oil and gas sectors, we have already identified that US shale operators are likely to see a few years of forced consolidation, with all the M&A activity that implies. But in the oil sector too we are going to see action. The biggest international oil company, ExxonMobil, is only the fourth-biggest oil company in the world, behind Saudi Aramco, Gazprom and the Iranian National Oil Company. BP and Shell are sixth and seventh. The only other international company in the top 10 is Chevron. The recent oil price drop, even if it does turn out to be a “flash crash”, is shining a spotlight on the inherent weakness of the smaller international oil companies. They are excluded from access to the lowest cost supplies, so in a world of volatile oil prices, not only are their margins systemically low, but any time the price drops, they are the first to be squeezed off the end of the supply curve. Their investors are receiving a very rude wake-up call. For all the acres of publicity given to the so-called “carbon bubble”, old-fashioned commodity volatility has delivered a far more powerful blow to oil companies’ financeability (it is also worth noting that the recent 22% drop in the NYSE Arca Oil share index has done nothing to unleash the next round of fiscal meltdown, as many in the climate community predicted it would). This should naturally lead to a surge of M&A activity in the oil industry. Not even the super-majors are immune. Faced with a cost problem and reduced market prices, it is the only available strategy for many players, particularly those without significant gas businesses. Consolidate, cut costs, stop exploring. We have been here before – welcome to the 1980s.All in all, if you are an energy M&A banker, look forward to short nights and lots of frequent-flyer miles. * * * Well, there you have our predictions for the year. Many of the themes I have discussed above, such as oil and gas prices, the dilemmas facing utilities, yieldcos and green bonds, and the whole area of financial innovation, will be vigorously debated at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit. Put it in your diary now: New York, 13-15 April (for further details, see http://about.bnef.com/summit/). I hope to see you there. In the meantime, a final word to our dinosaur friends: not all of them died out in the extinction event 66m years ago. Some learned to fly and are with us today as birds. I wish you all the very best of luck and business success in 2015.
- An energy system under stress The global energy system is in danger of falling short of the hopes and expectations placed upon it. Turmoil in parts of the Middle East – which remains the only large source of low-cost oil – has rarely been greater since the oil shocks in the 1970s. Conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reignited concerns about gas security. Nuclear power, which for some countries plays a strategic role in energy security (and which is examined in depth in this edition of the World Energy Outlook [WEO-2014]), faces an uncertain future. Electricity remains inaccessible to many people, including two out of every three people in sub-Saharan Africa (the regional focus in WEO-2014). The point of departure for the climate negotiations, due to reach a climax in 2015, is not encouraging: a continued rise in global greenhouse-gas emissions and stifling air pollution in many of the world’s fast-growing cities. Advances in technology and efficiency give some reasons for optimism, but sustained political efforts will be essential to change energy trends for the better. Signs of stress would be much more serious, were it not for improvements in efficiency and continuous efforts to innovate and reduce the cost of emerging energy technologies, such as solar photovoltaics (PV). But global energy trends are not easily changed and worries over the security and sustainability of energy supply will not resolve themselves. Actions from well-informed policy-makers, industry and other stakeholders are needed. WEO-2014, with projections and analysis extended to 2040 for the first time, provides insights that can help to ensure that the energy system is changed by design, rather than just by events. Energy: the answer to – and the cause of – some urgent problems Global energy demand is set to grow by 37% by 2040 in our central scenario, but the development path for a growing world population and economy is less energy-intensive than it used to be. In our central scenario, growth in global demand slows markedly, from above 2% per year over the last two decades to 1% per year after 2025; this is a result both of price and policy effects, and a structural shift in the global economy towards services and lighter industrial sectors. The global distribution of energy demand changes more dramatically, with energy use essentially flat in much of Europe, Japan, Korea and North America, and rising consumption concentrated in the rest of Asia (60% of the global total), Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. A landmark is reached in the early 2030s, when China becomes the largest oil-consuming country, crossing paths with the United States, where oil use falls back to levels not seen for decades. But, by this time, it is India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa that take over as the engines of global energy demand growth. See further http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/
- http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/
- BY creatig plausible scenario’s- world views- we can define and analyse strategies on robustness (how do they fit) and we can build a better frame for our decision making- using political, economic, social, environmental, business execution and technology consideration at heart. It is here where the journey starts.. Having a strategy is one thing. Being able to execute and organise it- the real test of Now to create a strategy we believe it is powerful if you can combine a visionary or missionary strategy with a realistic/pragmatic down-to-earth working plan. AND AND. (Example) It is this when a full team and varied stakeholder interests can become mobilised into success. Combining the interests of the whole, with the interest of the individual member.
- In our near future, we may best come to grasp with a new frame of “Energy Architecture” in the the energy sector- A frame based on (at least) 12-dimensions. 12 dimensions representing: People & Societies, Economy, Planetary Boundaries, Conventional Oil, coal and gas, Renewables- Sun, wind and bio, andn the Local, smart, de-central and distributed energy networks, including roll-out of energy efficiencies Our lIfestyles: Eco-conscious lifestyle- such as we can find in the Eco-villages in the west and in e.g. the rural communities of Africa and Asia We see Cities or Sustainable Cities Lifestyles And we see a lifestyle connected with High-Technology Advancement: A World Future Vision based on Science (Pulp-) Fiction, but now also more and more supported by some key research institutes: our science and technology is going to help us to create a complete new world order based on AI and perhaps abundance. And the 3 key consuming dimensions of energy Cities – and/or Sustainable Cities with energy-plus/ zero-carbon sustainable housing designs (including better materials) Transportation – in the air, on the water and on the road Industry- a selection and range of petro-chemical industry, agri-culture, etc.- now more and more in competition with nano-technology, miniaturization, 3D-printing, new material science based on AI/big computing. In other words:- So- developing and investing in an (national/ local) energy architecture becomes a little bit more than only investing or developing the supply side, or the oil, gas and coal side of the equation. Investing in an Energy Architecture now becomes a 12-dimensional frame, and whereby the stewards and stakeholders carefully review the best places to invest (or change) their time, money and resources in – in the community- and in order to achieve the best possible impact and sustainable conditions for their economies and societies – not only for the short-term, but for the years to come. And not only for the own location- but also taking the needs and demands of others and elsewhere in considerations. This new balance in investment and development in and over an Energy architecture- asks (government and business boardrooms) to change focus from a sole supply-sided focus (traditional) towards a much more balanced approach including into the realms of Economy, LifeStyle and the construct of sustainable houses and cities. an AND AND world (over 12-dimensions). And in this AND AND-world - the players in the energy architecture value chain sit (willingly) around the table, to better share and integrate their investment and dvelopment portfolio’s towards the best viable and sustainable energy architecture development concepts and solutions. For the whole. Not a private business matter, not a pure-free market play, not a play of state and governance. It is truly a new public-private compact. And that is a little bit different game than the traditional game played in the silo’s of the established large-scale energy and utility corporates – today- be it in state hands or in public listed company firms. So : Our today and tomorrow’s energy landscape asks and invites us actually to re-invent ourselves a little bit and to become a little bit more imaginative in our approaches and work collaborations in order to empower our societies and sustain our near future. The new role of the Energy Sector and Energy Professional envisioned is to become the new stewards, the new orchestra leaders- over these 12 dimensions. Why do I say that?
- And I just want to flag to you- one of the flagship projects within the UNSDSN organisation- the so-called Deep-decarbonization project. With an assembled scientific team- the organisation has and is going to look into every country, every energy architecture on this planet- and will propose pathways of how that economy, that country, that energy architecture will be able to come to a zero-emission infrastructure by 2050. Quite ambitious. But also actually quite needy- to bring to the attention. Now=- the study is still in the academic realms, and doesnot test itself against the forces and changes needed at policy makers, industry , economy or organizations in order to make it true. That’s the addition this lecture series bring to you. Our lecture series is about the pragmatics. About how we – the true energy professional- can start talking and walking the path of renewal. Of getting safe- and to stay out of trouble.
- Now- let’s look at what the definition of the term- “Energy Architecture- is,”: (From WEF/ Acceenture:) The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society. But - The energy architecture on location is also a reflection of the socio-political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on location. Ideally, The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future. Quite interesting. But what does that mean? Best explained in a picture..
- And now comes some magic. In the Past and still very much today- the energy sector is and has been very much supply-side orientated. With the upstream (coal,) oil and gas sitting on top-of-the-value chain, and making and attracting the largest talent, capital investment and government income- they are and have been in fact determining the markets. Oil & Gas rules. The Fossil Fuel industry is and has been the undisputable Nr. 1- and the rest is and had to following The other "elements" in the energy value chain receive a much lesser role and as they are perceived less sexy, more detailistic to frame, and are seen less worthy (or less government income). Nevertheless and over the last decades, each of these "other" elements in the energy value chains - from re-designing houses and cars (Product- Redesigns) towards energy architectures re-designs ( E-on in Germany and Denmark), Sun and Wind have demonstrated some of their potential. And in the words of an ex-oil man, I have seen these 'other' stages being "de-risked" , I have seen the potential we have in better unlocking and I have seen how these "other" elements can be brought to scale. So- the change challenge we face today, and in order to serve sustainability, our economies and our societies- is to change challenge our industry habits, our mind-sets, our (energy) project framings and our approach: Changing the role of oil and gas. From being the Nr1 supply-sided determinant over the market towards the Nr. 5 serving and becoming the complementary powerbase (last stop, last resort) in case the (eco-friendly , sustainable and disruptable technologies) energy architecture cannot deliver to scale. Turning the priorities for project framing, investment and energy architecture 360 degrees around. Changing the game we play. Now- that requires some New Vision. And- that requires some New Leadership
- IN this new energy vision- an individual country need is no longer served by the traditional approach, but best taking the whole value chain and energy options in one conceptual framework forwards: We balance our Vision of our Future Society with the developments within our national and global Economies, with that of the needs of sustainability (local and global) with a vision on a new energy architecture. A new X-factor of Integration, Transition and Transformation. In essence- whenever we execute a new energy infrastructure project or opportunity- we look and review the whole. And we look where we can best spend our dollars worth of money in order to leverage the value of energy. And the first step we may want to take is that of Integration.Integration is simply the art of improving and bettering the business model and relationships between the (upstream) conventional energy sector with that of the utility firms, energy distribution, renewables, cleantech, energy efficiency and products designs (housing, cars, industry). Perhaps you remember Mrs. Maria vd Hoeven of the IEA comments last year observation: the energy sector is in need of change of business model in the utility sector. Well- the good news is; The Board of Germany’s largest utility firm E-on did so and decided end last year to do so.By bettering integration between the parties we can come to new and exciting new energy architectures which can help to maximize the amount of energy return from a single gas atom, electron or photon. In our cars, homes and offices/ industries.By integrating networks (peer-to-peer micro-grids, smart local grids, national and region grids)- the energy sector will be able to combine the best of both worlds: the world of small and many in de-centralized solutions with that of the world of few and large: de world of centralized energy solutions (the present blueprint).In the world of integration- we often use the word: smartness: to embody the new possibilities of better balancing energy demand with supply over a grid system.Now the trick in realizing "integration at scale" is actually a conscious choice made in the boardrooms of the various firms: it is the willingness to allow to unlock some new magic between the business parties in the energy value chain: to review and reflect on established investment decision making and pricing mechanisms/ business models between stakeholders and shareholders in the chain.It is the willingness and abilities of business leadership to actually manage and steer this "change-of-focus" within and between the energy professionals and trade: Today’s reality is that large parts of the energy industry are actually quite conservative in nature: how hard it is to change the roles and functionalities of established discipline heads within.? How hard it is to change the focus from profitability towards maximizing energy return from an integrated value chain? How difficult is it to change from output focussed to a more sensible way of looking at what the contributions of the energy sector are towards (one's own and global) economy, society and nature?So- we need every fire-power and ammunition in order to provide these professionals with the right meaning and incentives for change: -I sincerely hope that this lecture series and the work of global leaders such as Jeffrey Sachs and Maria vd Hoeven helps..Integration also needs a strong and willing commitment to develop the right capabilities and capacities between the (upstream) oil and gas companies, the utilities, the network distribution companies and the technical service companies.This is large-scale, long-term program management.Not an art for the weak.It is the art of innovation: of making room for the new- and to allow new consortia to rise who can bring these new solutions, value and values to the table.My guess:It is about to happen. It is about to happen in a big scale. And it can truly create "new energy and excitement, new pride and passion" within and between the professionals in the energy industry and across the energy value chains.Is there a business case? You must be kidding: Just look at the facts and prognosis of what the world needs over coming decades- and how that may impact our lives and planet.. We just got to become a little bit more responsible and aware of what world we are living in.Do-ing nothing is simply not an option.Transition:Transition is actually the period of change. Whenever and where-ever boardrooms decide that today's status quo do not longer serve or guarantee a sustained future- we are and can be in transition.We open-up for the new, and allow other technical solutions and other business models and new organisations to develop or flourish. Within or outside ourselves.The word transition in energy is often used to describe the pathways moving from a dominant conventional energy infrastructure towards a (more) clean-tech, renewable, durable energy infrastructure- including the re-design of our houses, neighbourhoods, transportation and industries.Energy transition management is an art. It can be learned to leaders- and it specifically requires the abilities to change an organisation and established believes: How can we change staff and professionals who are trained and who solemnly believe in that their own profession and contributions will prevail?There are companies in this world who have demonstrated that they can change the DNA of their group: e.g. DuPont, Nokia.Resistance to change (or to energy transition) is large. Very large. In the conservative parts of the industry - in ministries or boardrooms in the emerging or developing nations, as well in the established markets of the West.Too many financial, professional , supply chain and stakeholder interests aspire to maintain or grow the status quo., or have been corrupted. To stay risk-averse- as the sums of capital and money involved, or the risks of failure or the reduction in profitability are simply too large to be carried by individual leaders.Only by having a right vision, and the right wisdom and leadership skills in a supporting context (stewards over a shared future) can we see the larger corporates to move along.In countries craving for energy- we see that energy integration and energy transition are much closer on the radar of leadership: unfortunately - and that is a truth- not all countries and not all cultures are able or fit to lead in this type of innovation.Change or transition is not without risk. Just think in terms of project and program management: the costs, times or returns from "transition/ innovation projects" are much harder to plan and predict than established blueprints. Failure is the biggest fear of many professional-amateurs in this field.Therefore I pledge that nations who can excel in innovation and who have the industrial capabilities and talent- take on this leadership role and proof and demonstrate to our world what new energy infrastructures can look like. At scale.Today - we know and can read that PM Modi of India aspires to have 100 smart cities in India. That's transition also: if Industry, Government (National or Local Authorities) and the Industry sector starts to work together: magic can be done.It's an absolutely fabulous industry with yet a huge and unlocked reservoir of re-newal (transition) potential.TransformationTransformation - is to my mind- the highest and most powerful form of change - in the three levels mentioned. It constitutes a new and shared awareness in mind. A new state of mind in and over the energy sector, over our society and our human well-being.It helps to see new essences of what may need to be done: e.g. Raising the energy sector's abilities in order to support and attain truly sustainable societies.That's a transformation of mind-set.Another transformation of mind-set is if in the ministries and boardrooms across the board we can instil the vision and passion to create energy architectures across the globe- which are durable, available, affordable and sustainable.That the energy professionals from Russia, India, China, Middle-East, Africa and the West can sit again at one table and start to honestly and openly "talk and walk " the path of super-grids, energy architecture integrations, city solutions, etc. etc.: Jointly designing and creating the next level of energy future and integration: Energy for All.-and by doing so making my newspaper reading ever so much more boring.I wish this kind of transformation- as I believe that the spirit of understanding that we all (and our children and children children) deserve and need energy in order to thrive on this planet can be helping in this matter.By instilling this story and this vision in the energy industry sector of today, and given all the geopolitics of emotions among ourselves, I believe we can help to prevent ourselves a lot of unnecessary suffering or troubles.So count me in. My practice is working on all these three levels of change-and is available to bring it to every corner of this globe.One thing I know for certain:Every nation on this planet, any energy architecture on location and in the region- can be improved upon.Can be improved on it's ways and means of Integration, Transition and Transformation- and in order to serve national and our global community.As such- I wish you a great deal of Sustainability AND Change!
- In our near future, we may best come to grasp with a new frame of “Energy Architecture” in the the energy sector- A frame based on (at least) 12-dimensions. 12 dimensions representing: People & Societies, Economy, Planetary Boundaries, Conventional Oil, coal and gas, Renewables- Sun, wind and bio, andn the Local, smart, de-central and distributed energy networks, including roll-out of energy efficiencies Our lIfestyles: Eco-conscious lifestyle- such as we can find in the Eco-villages in the west and in e.g. the rural communities of Africa and Asia We see Cities or Sustainable Cities Lifestyles And we see a lifestyle connected with High-Technology Advancement: A World Future Vision based on Science (Pulp-) Fiction, but now also more and more supported by some key research institutes: our science and technology is going to help us to create a complete new world order based on AI and perhaps abundance. And the 3 key consuming dimensions of energy Cities – and/or Sustainable Cities with energy-plus/ zero-carbon sustainable housing designs (including better materials) Transportation – in the air, on the water and on the road Industry- a selection and range of petro-chemical industry, agri-culture, etc.- now more and more in competition with nano-technology, miniaturization, 3D-printing, new material science based on AI/big computing. In other words:- So- developing and investing in an (national/ local) energy architecture becomes a little bit more than only investing or developing the supply side, or the oil, gas and coal side of the equation. Investing in an Energy Architecture now becomes a 12-dimensional frame, and whereby the stewards and stakeholders carefully review the best places to invest (or change) their time, money and resources in – in the community- and in order to achieve the best possible impact and sustainable conditions for their economies and societies – not only for the short-term, but for the years to come. And not only for the own location- but also taking the needs and demands of others and elsewhere in considerations. This new balance in investment and development in and over an Energy architecture- asks (government and business boardrooms) to change focus from a sole supply-sided focus (traditional) towards a much more balanced approach including into the realms of Economy, LifeStyle and the construct of sustainable houses and cities. an AND AND world (over 12-dimensions). And in this AND AND-world - the players in the energy architecture value chain sit (willingly) around the table, to better share and integrate their investment and dvelopment portfolio’s towards the best viable and sustainable energy architecture development concepts and solutions. For the whole. Not a private business matter, not a pure-free market play, not a play of state and governance. It is truly a new public-private compact. And that is a little bit different game than the traditional game played in the silo’s of the established large-scale energy and utility corporates – today- be it in state hands or in public listed company firms. So : Our today and tomorrow’s energy landscape asks and invites us actually to re-invent ourselves a little bit and to become a little bit more imaginative in our approaches and work collaborations in order to empower our societies and sustain our near future. The new role of the Energy Sector and Energy Professional envisioned is to become the new stewards, the new orchestra leaders- over these 12 dimensions. Why do I say that?
- Now- what do we know of tomorrow? The world of today and tomorrow is in rapid acceleration. In the amount of people living on one planet, In the amount of new wealth creation and distribution. 3 billion people in the BRICS and emerging nations joining the middle-class, And in the need for energy. IN order to have the comfort of mobility, housing, communication, school, health, jobs and life entertainment. So – our shared challenge is to discover and to create the circumstances and conditions, ie. accelerate the right innovations, in order to allow everybody to enjoy energy in abundance. That is part of the exciting journey we like to take with you in this open conversation .. ==== But let us look today at what the role of innovation is in Energy, and how we can approach this. A vision and approach to this Global Energy Challenge is outlined in an earlier edition of my (program) book “Energy For One World”. Some of the essential elements hereof have been researched in a sponsored study and thesis. The objective and focus of this opening presentation is somewhat different, but it’s a good moment to share here some of the key change challenges we are facing in our overall world energy system: “Three wise moves” (or “three simple, non-dogmatic and intuitive rules”) spring to mind if we look at the total and aggregate developments – in our world energy system, today: The Western (OECD-) countries could do well if they were able to “make room” and reduce their average fossil energy footprint significantly, in order to- Allow and facilitate the non-OECD countries to grow and allow their benefits and wealth creation (opportunity) from fossil energy. The general predicted increase in world average energy consumption per capita should ideally be generated by non-fossil fuels such as renewable energy. Overall world fossil fuel production is not to rise further significantly if we do not wish to cross levels which can no longer be sustained or guaranteed for our economies, societies or nature. And an overall action agenda: A political agenda: we need better and a global oversight and agreement on the rules of the game on sustainability and the dynamic developments in the world energy system. A business and large (energy) corporation agenda: making room for the new: enabling the development of energy architectures of the 21st century A social agenda: we need to allow for the poor and middle-class incomes: ensuring that energy when made available – remains affordable. We need leadership values of the 21st century: allowing for better integration of sutainability in the energy value chains and across borders. The role of the Energy Business, in all this – and in realizing a sustainable development and action agenda post-MDG 2015- is to our minds - quite significant. It is our view that the afore mentioned Global (Energy) Challenge can be best solved by a attuned collaboration between Policy makers and the Business and Energy professionals (and Executives) in the sector and around the globe. Hence our excitement in our practice to develop, create and realize the (informal and global) ´platforms and formats´- ie. the conditions and facilities- for the energy professionals and policy makers (Executives) to step-up in their leadership and approach to this (global) change challenge. Only by pulling and combining the best-and-brightest resources and knowledge available, and only if we allow ourselves to find ´new and fresh-styled formats or platforms´ Between: the conventional energy sector and the cleantech industry business-, finance-, politics- and science the East and the West, The North and the South The have and have not’s May we have a chance of raising our shared awareness and building the (innovative) capabilities and capacities within the sector, and across borders. The energy sector that then can truly remain the ´engine´ and blessing for our economies and societies.
- http://unfccc.int/meetings/geneva_feb_2015/session/8619.php
- To reach 100 BnUSD/ annually by 2020??
- + Energy Producing Companies and Fossil Fuel Exporting Countries;
- + e.g. example of Belgium: Energy transition Tax.
- The Established Energy Sector AND the new. Leaders in Innovation and Leading Innovative Nations Energy Corporations Societies and Economies In Established and New Markets Building Co-alitions of the Willing, and Multiplying Efforts to scale
- Now to bring about true and lasting Integration, Transition and Transformation in our Societies- we need Vision and we need the skills and possibilities to influence, agree, decide, organize and realize. ‘This influence’ can be done at a Global Level (think UN, G20, BRICS, OECD, Opec, IEA, IEF) – and this influence and realization can be on lower levels: in cities and in communities. The Energy Business community, especially the larger-scale energy companies, be it state -be it private or stock-listed- is where today’s realities are be-ing executed- and futures can be build. Overall- and across the globe- the energy business community are the shapers and builders of our energy future. Now in the X-factor of tomorrow- I see this Business community, the energy professionals so to speak- assuming a much larger role in the stewardship over the energy architecture development, as done generally today- securing sustainable development. The beauty is- that energy professionals around the globe are connected. Horizontally across the value chains and in each Sector (be it oil, coal, renewables). Now- if we aspire to rapidly accelerate and step-up our Vision on Building truly vibrant and Sustainable Societies- then I see that the leaders in and over these energy companies AND the energy professionals within these companies can open-up and zipper. To open-up and build the new bridges for our new realities- from local, regional and global- and collectively create a new elevated construct of energy architectures. To my mind- this is a crucial element in the post-2015 UN SDSN development goals – re-inveting our established frameworks and organisations- if we are to succeed in its mission and delivery.
- The perspective of tomorrow needs to be wider than that. Whenever an existing infrastructure is outdated, we need to introduce alternative options and ways of thinking. What I would like to see is that, whenever a power plant is up for renewal- the people staffing the power plant are working on the following options: - how much energy can we generate locally at our customer base - how much energy can we start saving from our present customer base - how can we combine our new power-load with some new renewable energy production park elsewhere (e.g. concentrated solar or wind). In essence, one would expect- that these considerations will lead to alternative options, and that finally- the utility will conclude that it may need only 40-60% of the initial installed capacity- in order to serve its clients. In short...if the perspectives and the scope definition of the replacement projects are taken with a more holistic view- than the USA and Europe has surely the option to reduce the number of power plant replacements by a factor two.
- DID YOU KNOW? Year the 1st offshore wind farm was built in Europe: 1991 Number of offshore wind farms now operating in Europe: 66 Number of people now employed in the European offshore wind industry: 58,000 World’s largest offshore wind farm: The London Array % of Denmark’s electricity supplied by wind power: 30% London ARRAY Facts and Figures An offshore area of 100km2 175 wind turbines Two offshore substations Nearly 450km of offshore cabling One onshore substation 630MW of electricity Enough power for nearly half a million UK homes a year – two thirds of the homes in Kent CO2 savings of 925,000 tonnes a year The remarkable levels of activity during 2012, with 84 foundations, 175 wind turbines, 178 array cables and three export cables installed. October that year saw the first turbine producing power, with the final one coming on line in April 2013. Since then, the operation and maintenance team has focused on the performance and output of the wind farm. Operational Milestones: London Array’s first winter of full operation (October 2013 to March 2014) saw the wind farm generate 1,500 GWh (1.5 TWh) of clean power – equivalent to the annual consumption of around 325,000 British households – and ahead of target. January 2014 was a record month with more than 306 GWh of electricity exported, some 14 GWh on 6 January alone. February came a close second with just under 306 GWh. The good performance was helped by unusually windy weather which, combined with high availability, meant the turbines were able to capitalise on the near-perfect conditions to achieve very high load factors At the end of April 2014, London Array’s net output from when the first turbine came on line reached 3 TWh – saving some 1,290,000 tonnes in carbon dioxide output. Cape Wind It is interesting to note – that the application for filing of Cape Wind was done back in 2001. It took some 14 years of legal and commercial scale preparation before construction of this project actually could take place. Cape Wind is nearing construction to become America’s first offshore wind farm. Cape Wind will consist of 130 Siemens 3.6-megawatt offshore wind turbines with a capacity of 468 megawatts. The project will be located in Federal waters off the coast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, on Horseshoe Shoal in Nantucket Sound, the most technically optimal offshore wind power site in the United States.
- Dimensions of the Farm: 3500 hectares 160,000 homes 1,5 Bn USD 550 MW 8 million panels If we do this 1000 times, then we can power 160 million homes= America (USA)= 30-40% of total energy. How long does it take us to get there? Understanding that doubling of capacity in the industry does take / or may take time. Assume: Only 6 hours a day 15% efficiency.
- Every time fossil fuels get cheaper, people lose interest in solar deployment. That may be about to change. After years of struggling against cheap natural gas prices and variable subsidies, solar electricity is on track to be as cheap or cheaper than average electricity-bill prices in 47 U.S. states -- in 2016, according to a Deutsche Bank report published this week. That’s assuming the U.S. maintains its 30 percent tax credit on system costs, which is set to expire that same year. Even if the tax credit drops to 10 percent, solar will soon reach price parity with conventional electricity in well over half the nation: 36 states. Gone are the days when solar panels were an exotic plaything of Earth-loving rich people. Solar is becoming mainstream, and prices will continue to drop as the technology improves and financing becomes more affordable, according to the report. The chart below shows how far solar will come out ahead in each state in 2016, assuming a worst-case scenario of lower tax credits. The blue bars show the anticipated cost of solar energy (assuming a conservative 20-year lifespan for the panels) minus average electricity prices. Positive numbers indicate the savings for every kilowatt hour of electricity. Grid Parity to Reach 36 States in 2016 Solar has already reached grid parity in 10 states that are responsible for 90 percent of U.S. solar electricity production. In those states alone, installed capacity growth will increase as much as sixfold over the next three to four years, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah wrote in the Oct. 26 report. The reason solar-power generation will increasingly dominate: it’s a technology, not a fuel. As such, efficiency increases and prices fall as time goes on. The price of Earth’s limited fossil fuels tends to go the other direction. Michael Park, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein, has a term for the staggering price relationship between solar and fossil fuels: the Terrordome. I’m not sure exactly what that means, but it doesn’t sound very forgiving. The chart below shows the price of energy sources since the late 1940s. The extreme outlier, of course, is solar, which only recently became an expensive blip in the energy marketplace. It will soon undercut even the cheapest fossil fuels in many regions of the planet, including poorer nations where billion-dollar coal plants aren’t always practical. Solar will be the world’s biggest single source of electricity by 2050, according to a recent estimate by the International Energy Agency. Currently, it’s responsible for just a fraction of one percent. Because of solar's small market share today, no matter how quickly capacity expands, it won’t have much immediate impact on the price of other forms of energy. But soon, for the first time, the reverse may also be true: Gas and coal prices will lose their sway over the solar industry. More from Tom Randall: Break-Even Points for U.S. Shale OilWhy Musk Is Building Batteries in a Desert When No One Is BuyingWorld's Biggest Market Crashes and You Didn't Even Know ItThe Coolest Feature on the Tesla D Is the One No One Sees Coming
- Retrofitting the World's Most Iconic Office Building June 24, 2013 Share 0 0 googleplus0 The Empire State Building announced today that its energy efficiency program is saving $2.3 million for the second year in a row – beyond expectations. Thanks to the program, the building has been saving money on energy costs since 2011. In addition, the building – which set records in 1931 when it was built as the tallest building in the world and is the world’s most famous office building – is proving that even historic, commercial buildings can become energy-efficient and economically sustainable. The Empire State Building’s energy-efficiency retrofit program launched in 2009 and was developed by the Clinton Climate Initiative in partnership with the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, Johnson Controls, Jones Lang LaSalle, Rocky Mountain Institute, and the Empire State Building. While the core of the building’s retrofit has been completed, some tenant spaces are still being retrofitted with high-performance workspaces. When they’re done, the building is expected to save $4.4 million a year on energy costs, which is a 38 percent reduction in energy use that will also mean a reduction carbon emissions by 105,000 metric tons over the next 15 years. What’s more, this retrofit model has been replicated throughout the United States at properties including the One Worldwide Plaza in New York, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the Port of San Francisco’s Pier 1, Prologis Inc.’s corporate headquarters, the Moscone Center in San Francisco and Chicago’s Union Station, among others. From coast to coast, the program continues to show that even in dense urban centers like New York and San Francisco, where commercial buildings account for up to 75 percent of energy used, sustainable solutions exist that are also cost-effective. In fact, if every commercial building in New York City replicated this program model, carbon emissions would be reduced by 4 million tons. The record-setting building has become a trendsetter! Read the press release to learn more.
- About 100% renewable power makes good business sense. By demonstrating the global business benefits of going ‘100% renewable’ RE100 will help to create a tipping point for renewable power. The Climate Group is partnering with CDP to encourage the world’s most influential businesses to join RE100 and commit to going 100% renewable. Our aim is for at least 100 companies to make a global 100% renewable commitment with a clear timeframe for reaching their goal. We are proud to be supported by IRENA and the We Mean Business coalition and will continue to grow and strengthen our partnerships to help scale renewable power.Steering Committee Mark KenberCEO, The Climate Group Mark Kenber is CEO of The Climate Group. He has worked on climate change for over 20 years. During that time he led the creation of the CDM Gold Standard, a tool for channeling carbon market investments into sustainable clean energy projects, and participated in the European Climate Change Programme working group responsible for the design of the EU ETS. Mark currently sits on the Climate Change Advisory Council at Zurich Insurance, BP’s target-neutral Assurance and Advisory Panel; the Climate Policy Editorial Advisory Board; and the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change Steering Committee. Eimear Cahalin Chief Financial Officer & Company Secretary, Mainstream Renewable Power Eimear Cahalin is the Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary at Mainstream Renewable Power. Before joining Mainstream, Eimear spent 13 years in the financial services industry. Most recently she was Head of Finance at Structured Credit Company in Dublin. Prior to that, having worked for Arthur Andersen, she spent 10 years working in the City of London for Deutsche Bank and RBS Financial Markets. Eimear specialised in financial management of global operations teams for investment banking businesses and project management of related IT initiatives. Eimear is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Ireland. Pedro FariaTechnical Director, CDP Pedro Faria is the Technical Director at CDP. He oversees the development of CDP’s information request, disclosure platform, scoring systems and data. He is a member of the Climate Disclosure Working Group and leads their XBRL efforts in the area of climate change reporting. Pedro has a deep understanding of the technical, accounting and reporting aspects of energy and carbon emissions. Kalle HashmiSenior Programme Officer – Capacity Building, IRENA Kalle Hashmi is Head of Capacity Building at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). He has worked for more than 20 years at the Swedish Energy Agency, where he represented Sweden at the European Commission, International Energy Agency (IEA), and United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). Kalle is also an Associate Professor at the Royal Technical University, Sweden. Alex PerreraDirector, Renewable Energy Initiatives, WRI Alex Perera is the Director of Renewable Energy Initiatives at the World Resources Institute. He has led successful collaboration projects with multinationals in the manufacturing, retail, and technology sectors to scale use of renewable energy and energy efficiency. Prior to joining WRI in 2007, Alex has over ten years of experience in energy policy, finance, and the private sector. Andrew WinstonFounder, Winston Eco-Strategies Andrew Winston is a globally recognized expert on how companies can navigate and profit from humanity’s biggest challenges. His views on strategy have been sought after by many of the world’s leading companies, including Boeing, HP, J&J, Kimberly-Clark, PepsiCo, PwC, and Unilever. Andrew’s first book, Green to Gold, was the top-selling green business title of the last decade and was included in Inc. Magazine’s all-time list of 30 books that every manager should own. His speeches for audiences around the world, and his new book The Big Pivot, lay out a practical and optimistic roadmap for how companies can thrive in a hotter, scarcer, more open world.
- Origins Ambri (formerly Liquid Metal Battery Corporation) is developing an electricity storage solution that will change the way electric grids are operated worldwide. Ambri will enable the more widespread use of renewable generation like wind and solar, reduce power prices and increase system reliability. Ambri’s technology — the liquid metal battery — was invented in the lab of Dr. Donald Sadoway, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. At MIT, the Liquid Metal Battery Project built upon Professor Sadoway’s 40 years of experience working with extreme electrochemical processes, ranging from aluminum smelting, to molten oxide electrolysis for extracting oxygen from lunar regolith, to lithium polymer batteries. The research on campus has been supported by the Deshpande Center, the Chesonis Family Foundation, ARPA-E and the French energy company, Total. David Bradwell (now Senior Vice President of Commercialization & Chief Technology Officer of Ambri) played an instrumental role in advancing the technology while he completed an M.Eng degree, a Ph.D degree, and a one-year postdoctoral fellowship. In 2010, Bradwell and Sadoway, along with Luis Ortiz, co-founded Ambri with the goal of commercializing the technology.
- …and then I come to speak on Eco-villages. The eco-villages of this world have today an outread to an approximately 17,000 of those villages- worldwide. The Global Ecovillage Network envisions a world of empowered citizens and communities, designing and implementing their own pathways to a sustainable future, and building bridges of hope and international solidarity. They are experiments of how we can live together- more in balance within and between ourselves (harmony across differences), and more in balance with nature (eco-footprint, balanced consumption pattern). “Whilst our rapid globalization and drift towards cities is not exactly the lifestyle or atmosphere we may see at these more secluded haven’s of peace, tranquility and rest- I believe, and with me some people in the UN- that there is and can be a lot learned from this global network of eco-villages by those cities. In fact, in Scotland, and at CIFAL/ UNITAR – the educational centre for sustainable development- the chief director of that institute lives or has lived for most of her live in an Eco-Village. And she uses both “hats” and learnings in her work and outreach to develop sustainable communities around the globe- in the farvella’s of Brazil to the rural communities in Bangladesh. Another element which is interesting and of potential- is that city people, sometimes live in lonesomeness amongst themselves- can gain the experience of another lifestyle- more in touch with nature and in living in a social community. To that end- and good for you to know, and most recently- is that a group of City Major’s actually came to visit one of those eco-villages- and to learn from the Eco-village community governance and building community elements learned within these centers. And finally, and not the least- eco-villages are a source of inspiration that actually “less can be more”.
- General expectation is that we will see the number of light vehicles double if not triple over coming two to three decades. From 1 billion to 3 billion cars by 2050 for our personal mobility. Exxon Mobil recent allowed only a 20% increase in fuel demand consumption in these passengers cars- in order to fuel thus an additional 1 or 2 billion cars. Is this likely?. Let alone of the rapid and enormous increase in heavy transport fuel consumption. So, -in any shape or form- and over the next decades we will have to see some form of change in the way we fuel our cars. In order to better share the amount of petrol available, in order to maintain an affordable price and - perhaps- in order to clean our cities from its noise and fumes.So we have to start to consider new options for our personal cars and new options for the related infrastructure. We have to smarten-up. Especially in our cities.So-i want to share with you some first suggestions on how each and every nation or city - can start to manage this transition or change.As a joke i sometimes state the following: We need the genius of a Steve Jobs, the commercial accumen of Bill Gates, the business mind set and financial efficiency of a Rockefeller, the abilities to scale what customers want of a Henry Ford, and the abilities of persistence, invention and delivery of an Edison.But first of all- let's look at the present range of solutions available for considerations (if we want to define new ways of transportation projects- we need to study the landscape and see what options are available): == Cars By 2020 there could be one billion cars on the world’s roads, 50 per cent more than today, Toyota's cumulative global hybrid vehicle sales reached 1.458.325 units as of the end of April 2008. Emerging markets present the main opportunity for long-term car sales growth and they propel the global car market to over 60m units by 2009; Chinas sheer force of numbers presents the major long-term demand growth opportunity and we believe that the car market in China will hit six million units by 2009, buoyed by rising replacement demand as well as new demand; Prognosis is that by 2025, 25% of cars manufactered and sold in the developing world are electric (or hybrids) Cities and city commuting: By 2050, world population will grow by 50% to 9 Billion people <1% of Earth Surface. 50%+ of world population. 75% of world energy demand 97% of cars drive less than 250 miles a day. (present predicted range of electric cars)
- "Avant-garde" Leaders such as Carlos Ghosn (Renault/Nissan), Google Self driving cars, Elon Musk with Solar City and Tesla, E-on Company of Germany, Sustainable Housing and City Planners in North-West Europe - or the Sustainable Cities in UAE-Masdar, China- Tijanjin, Chonqing, Saudi Arabia, or the 100 smart cities of PM Modi of India- demonstrate to us the way and ways by which new energy architectures are today possible, feasible and scale-able.But they do not come by itself.Actually- they thrive best if we can create the "winning community constellations" in the market, customers, governments (/policy makers) , investment community, suppliers and energy service companies on location- "in- one-go". IN the words of Carlos: Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.
- And we see the arrival of some new and futuristic entrepreuring- in order to transport our common future. In a later presentation- we will talk about the future of our transportation, the future fuel options, and about game-changing the present agenda and tomorrows opportunities in our present day practice. Sometimes- and a little jokingly- I say- that we need to find the entrepreneurial spirit and combination of an Steve Jobs, Henry Ford, Bill Gates and a Rockefeller, - to solve our present challenge in finding solutions for the transportation of the 10 billion people of this planet- years to come.
- But the future can be read and seen by the many “light-houses”, the innovation and change programs scattered around the globe. The signals and signs of new energy architecture become more and more real visible in the personal car mobility- where a wave and convergence of three technologies is going to smarten the car as we know it- from self-driving, self navigating and electric driven cars- we , and according to Industry expert- we are expected to see a “big shift” in consumer buying power and needs from 2020 onwards.. Another shift is and can already been seen around the houses: from distributed, microgrids, off-grids, self powered and heated homes- as now promoted by companies such as E-on in Germany and Solar City of Elon Musk or the Smart Cities of China, Middle-East and India… It's actually quite simple. On the moment that we embrace the principle from Me to We, and that our company or work is 'in service' of the wider community and we start taking decisions based on that principle -included the needs for future generations- our future flows and falls into place..As I spoke earlier briefly on the opportunity for the Energy Sector to embrace New Visions and New Architectures befit for the 21st century -and now on "Avant-garde" Leaders such as Carlos Ghosn (Renault/Nissan), Google Self driving cars, Elon Musk with Solar City and Tesla, E-on Company of Germany, Sustainable Housing and City Planners in North-West Europe - or the Sustainable Cities in UAE-Masdar, China- Tijanjin, Chonqing, Saudi Arabia, or the 100 smart cities of PM Modi of India- demonstrating to us the way and ways by which new energy architectures are today possible, feasible and scale-able.But they do not come by itself.Actually- they thrive best if we can create the "winning community constellations" in the market, customers, governments (/policy makers) , investment community, suppliers and energy service companies on location- "in- one-go".In the words of Carlos Ghosn:Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.(Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled PLV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self-driving and navigating new car concepts)The same is true for the roll-out of Solar City or the new E-on's . There where the technical/market eco-system is supportive and adaptive to embrace the changed and new-styled distributed energy architectures across urban communities- the flywheel will start to spin..Traditionally - the energy sector is quite conservative and hierarchical, and furthermore orientated towards the supply-side of the equation: Those sitting on the upstream reserves (be it coal, oil or gas- ie. the money) determine to a large degree the project, sales and infrastructure development of the energy sector over the value chain well into the consuming locations.However- the "new song and dance" in energy and energy architecture development may no longer be best served by this game played in corporate silo's ( top-down) , - but is most likely far better served and played if done more and more in balanced community (of the energy professionals) across the value chains.Building a "well-tuned orchestra and community" between government, business and business innovation, community which are ready, willing and prepared to realize true and truthful energy architecture innovations and changes. Big and Small.=== And we know that we have and are facing "great difficulties, complexities and challenges" in the continuance of "this great 20th century machine" in our near- and mid-term future in this industry. And not only on sustainability. Not only as we are accessing ever more remote, difficult, poisonous or environmental sensitive fields in our portfolio's of extraction and production, but also we are facing an explosion of energy demand around the globe: Now relate the above to today's approximately 250 BnUSD investment and revenue levels in the totality of the "cleantech - industry"- and the sums of money we put in R&D and innovation- and you may start to "see" and agree with me how "massively under-balanced" we yet are- in our overall world energy system: I wrote the following words (with some senior geology and energy futurists scientists) earlier: Today, all activities on our planet are fuelled by a daily energy supply of 225 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Roughly 80% comes from oil, natural gas and coal (fossil fuels). It is expected that in 2050 the total amount of energy that needs be produced will amount to 500-750 million boe per day. This figure is based on a worldwide population growth of 50% in the coming 40 years, and a higher average level of energy consumption (5 kW per capita or 120 kWh per capita per day[3]). How can we deliver this large amount of energy in a clean manner?[4] How does the transition path to 50 terawatt look like?[5] Now, if all people on this planet by then were to consume fossil (oil, gas, coal) fuel energy in the same way as people presently do in the West and wealthy parts of the emerging nations, we will be in for trouble, as we would need Five planets (for as much as we can understand now) to find and produce these resources. The present trend is exactly that. So, over the next decades the energy industry will need to find answers to the challenge. The clean-tech industry- the industry of renewable energy supply, smart energy infrastructures [6] and energy saving- will have to play a significant role, perhaps much larger than presently predicted or seen. But will the speed of developments and integration of the clean-tech industry and its innovations be in time for the market? How about the time needed in order to grow these solutions to scale, and to develop the capabilities into a reliable new energy infrastructure? How about the present strength and distribution of the existing resource base in the conventional coal, oil and gas resource system? Will the new frontier reserves such as shale oil and gas be sufficiently strong in order to balance the expected (rapid and steep) decline in the existing and large producing fields? Can (all of) these new frontier production reserves be actually produced- from an economic, ecological and societal point of view? So with this rise in complexity and uncertainties both on the demand side as well on the supply side of the world energy system, and in a socio-technical context, we may expect the world energy system perhaps to run against triple-A limits (affordability, availability, acceptability) or may become unstable (price volatilities, market swings, security or unrest, etc.).
- So- I dream of the moment that we can say: Energy is no longer an issue that can divide our nations, that can affect or deprive people from their economic activities, social comforts or freedom of movements- nor that it can endanger our animal life, our lands and seas or our biosphere. I dream of a world of energy abundance. I dream of a world where energy is no longer an issue of national security- but I dream of a world where we speak about making and having energy available to all.. I dream of a world, where a farmer, a manufacturer or a city community can no longer be pulled back, starved or downed by the price or the availability of energy.. I dream of a world where the exploration, production and distribution of energy is no longer a danger to our animal life, our natural land, our seas or our biosphere- and man itself. I dream of an energy industry which is truly vibrant and supportive to the rise of sustainable societies, without the spin, self-protection, defensive sustainability or riff-raff. I dream of an energy industry - healed from the (financial) interests by those who can play with prize, access, power, investment levels, and so on. I dream of a world where all the energy professionals - and across the value chains- feel part in a "global brotherhood"- an elite group of professionals- like in the health-sector- and who truly serve societies - and are organizing, empowering and enabling themselves to create the energy architectures we need.I dream of a world where the energy sector is "free of concerns" We need large-scale business innovation in the energy sector. We need to revolutionize parts of our today's 20st century energy infrastructures to a next level of sustainability. Not only to Sustain (think Lima).- but also simply to stay out of trouble (Think Nobel Peace Prize) ===== We need the energy profession, the energy corporations the business leadership of the energy corporations to become much more responsible and engaged in the actual change challenge and dimensions of the change challenge we are in. Stewardship over the Energy Architecture - by the Energy Businesses itself- in a global-, local- and corporate setting is a new and emerging business leadership role. Within the energy sector, and across the energy value chains, great political-, economic-, social-, technological-, ecological- and organizational- shifts and dynamics are taking place. Leadership over Energy corporations, today- be it in Coal, Oil & Gas, Utility, Renewables, Distribution or Energy Support firms – requires a new balancing act: attuning “corporate strategies and organizational forms” with that of the “ dynamic context change and societal needs” they are in. I dream to see those Leaders to stand-up in the larger Energy (Oil and Gas) Corporations and to start to walk this path. I dream that today's hero's and Energy & Sustainability leaders - such as Carlos Ghosn, Elon Musk, E-on Board, Peter Head (former Arup founder) get embraced, supported, replicated and brought to scale- not resisted- by the Leaders within the Large-scale energy corporations around the globe That is what I dream.
- This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts. 1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in. 2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements. 3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures –as it develops.
- I like to conclude. And I like to conclude by talking a little bit on our journey in this lecture series… And I will be short..
- John D. Rockefeller, a former accountant, became the first great oil tycoon in the USA, understood the importance of controlling transportation and distribution of oil. His business genius further extends to his ability to “see” what the people at that time wanted (initially kerosine lanterns, later petrol for cars), and find the appropriate business model to deliver this to the market, At scale From 1870 and onwards, and with the birth of Standard Oil Company – (the later Exxon Mobile)- he successfully managed to secure smart business deals with railroads, key transporters and distributors, allowing him to compete on price. In fact- he was a master in making business deals behind closed-doors and looking at global opportunities in the market with an analytical eye and self-interest. The influence of this man on todays energy corporation leadership and practices cannot be underestimated. We need to take a good look at him. And hopefully agree on the many positive aspects of the man (a great business innovator and new frontier man), but we may also perhaps agree that our present times require a much more evolved business leadership style for our own good sake and progression of our societies. I will explain.
- And to explain this, I like to move to Professor Michael Porter. His influence over present day business beliefs can also not be underestimated. In this classic book of Professor Michael Porter- an analysis on how corporations can achieve competitive advantage and maintain their positition towards competitors or market substitutes Looking on how best to stay in the game, and win the game: Focus. Focus on Niche, Cost-leadership or Differentiation Actually, describing what early and great 20thy century entrepreneurs already knew or where doing. At times opportunistic, and at times based on power, influence or money- building Nr.1 positions in the market. Winning and Taking. Examples of this belief we may find in a positive way at GE’s Jack Welsh (“Winning”) or in a much more negative form e.g. The Movie Wall Street with Gorden Gekko’s famous : “Greed is Good.” What is a fact is that Mr Porter has educated this belief and this behaviour around the globe , at universities and at our leaders in Europe, the Middle-East, Europe and Far-east. I ask myself now at times: How much damage has been done- over this whole period? Why? Because – end 2010/ early 2011 – we hear a complete revised Michael Porter: Let me share some of his most recent words: «A big part of the problem lies with companies themselves, which remain trapped in an outdated approach to value creation that has emerged over the past few decades. They continue to view value creation narrowly, optimizing short-term financial performance in a bubble while missing the most important customer needs and ignoring the broader influences that determine their longer-term success. How else could companies overlook the wellbeing of their customers, the depletion of natural resources vital to their businesses, the viability of key suppliers, or the economic distress of communities in which they produce and sell? How else could companies think that simply shifting activities to locations with ever lower wages was a sustainable «solution» to competitive challenges?»* But the question now is: How much of our present leadership is listening to this latest Michael Porter? How many of our present energy corporations are still practicing the old Porter and what they hence learned in their MBA or Executive management class? So still working the old Michael Porter. - I have to share this with you- I think and based of what I have seen and know: unfortunately: much too many. If we donot find ways to improve this old leadership style, I sense we are in for some big trouble. In energy land. But let me help you to gain a positive and healthy perspective of what needs doing in this vital industry and let’s talk a little later of what we can do to improve our leadership. Today. Not tomorrow.
- The Energy professional of today and tomorrow - is invited and asked to be able to: - Balance, listen and translate needs and views of the variety of (national and international) stakeholders into a workable vision and plan.- Innovate and lead the local-, regional- and global energy architectures to a next level of performance.- Work for the business whilst maintaining an eye on society and the common good, economy (profitability), sustainability and relevance. Global Change has everything to do with the rise in population, the general increase and rapid distribution of wealth and the growing needs for Energy (to fuel the people and economies). Global Change has also much to do with the dynamic shifts in geo-political balances and (international) relationships and decision making, the ways in which the global, regional and national energy markets develop and in the ways we dare to elevate our societies for the better including sustainability. As Energy is a relative slow moving, but a very large sector - our today's decisions, choices and behaviours in aggregate and in the Energy Land determine to a large degree the outcome of our efforts.Will we stay out of trouble? Will we be surprised? Or are we going to meet a wall? Today's Stewardship over the Energy Architecture is hence an essential new leadership skill: In Business and in Governments.
- Year 2015 may be a Pivot Year in Energy Land. First of all, and at the end of 2015, we will experience the results of years’ of climate change negotiations in Paris. Secondly, and in September of 2015, the UN is to agree and embark on a ground-breaking program of capacity and capability building in the realms of Sustainable Development. In both programs- Energy and the Energy Sector are crucial and vital element for it’s success. The world is craving for resources. Resource exploitation becomes ever more complex and costly. The future of resource exploitation complex and difficult to improve or innovate. How do we stay out of trouble in a world where everybody wants to win or live abundant- and in an industry sector which is reaching it’s limits of growth or is running towards scarcity or unsustainability? And not forgetting all the concerns with human live, health (in consuming the product) and our natural environment (“the great acceleration“) . Well – that- and in a nutshell- is the Energy sector, today. In the words of Ban-Ki Moon: We are the last generation that can fight climate change. We have a duty to act How are we going to live together and provide energy to all people of this world – reliably, sustainably, affordable, and in harmony? Can we build Sustainable Societies for all? Stewardship over the Energy Architecture[1] in a global-, local- and corporate setting is to our mind a new and urgent business leadership role. Energy For One World practice focus is on the outlook and present workings of our world energy system- and how we can improve our individual and collective strategies, decisions and action making on Energy Architecture (local, regional, and national) -for our Economies, Sustainability and Societal needs. The practice is directed towards the realization of systematic improvements in the local and global energy system and outlook. To enable partners to define and realize the opportunity space for business and government to succeed in the energy world of today and tomorrow. A key perspective is in our understanding that all nations and all people have a fundamental right for energy. In order to achieve this, and for a growing world population, we may want to improve on our local, regional and global energy system realizations. Energy For One world helps to develop a (local and relevant) strategy- balancing Energy with Economy, Society and Sustainability needs, and based on this strategy, on how to define and realize (business or national) opportunities. We have a global outreach and intelligence network – and partner with a range of very senior representatives and reputable seniors from Academics, Institutes, Energy Corporations and Consulting. ==== Stewardship over Energy (and Energy Transition management) requires clarity of vision, awareness, focus and the relevant change and balancing strategies which require the development of new competencies, capabilities, capacities and skills - in business and in the energy trade. Over the coming years and decades, Leaders and Professionals in the Energy Industry will be challenged on Global (Energy) Change. The causes of a crisis in the energy landscape can all be to do with uncovering revelations on resource ownership or availability of recoverable reserves (conventional or unconventional) or the sheer trading and international play with access to resources or demand-supply imbalances.The fact is that some of the people sitting on top of the value chain and controlling the money streams of energy may not all have or share this incentive for change. The opposite is true for the people outside the sector, at the lower scale of employment and who are made dependent on the availability of energy. These people are vulnerable, and generally have no voice - or take to the streets when it is generally much too late.The growing and rising global middle-class of the world - soon a 3 billion+ people - are squeezed in between those two layers - and will feel the rising pressures of the cost of energy and transportation in their households.Energy craving or energy scarcity in one nation, can lead to trouble elsewhere. Energy shortage or energy price hikes can cause economies to falter or stagnate, and governments to topple. To that end, it can be compared with the continued rise and fall of crises in our global financial sector. One nation can affect another nation. And so on. Making decisions on energy, energy policy and energy architecture are hence utmost important ones. Not only because of the impact they have - directly and indirectly - on the economy and countries involved, but also because many of the energy decisions are made in time - but have a lasting effect over time that sometimes impact our global (energy) system for the next 20-30 years. It is very difficult for governments and business board rooms to see and reflect on their individual actions short or long-term – and in a global market situation where most parties are seeking to gain. To understand the geopolitical, socio-economic and ecological consequences of their deeds – now and in time, individually and in aggregate in the sector. Moreover, and especially, when all of us do have to operate in a market which is pretty dynamic, unpredictable and uncertain. On all dimensions. The demands to continue to make energy reliably available in one nation or to the whole, for an affordable and in an acceptable (think: sustainability) way is most likely to become a pressing challenge.That's why we and I - at Energy For One World- are so excited that we have chosen these three features in one program and practice.Global Change, Energy and Stewardship.Global Change has everything to do with the rise in population, the general increase and rapid distribution of wealth and the growing needs for Energy (to fuel the people and economies).Global Change has also much to do with the dynamic shifts in geo-political balances and (international) relationships and decision making, the ways in which the global, regional and national energy markets develop and in the ways we dare to elevate our societies for the better.As Energy is a relative slow moving, but a very large sector- our today's decisions, choices and behaviours in aggregate and in the Energy Land determine to a large degree the outcome of our efforts.Will we stay out of trouble or will be surprised and are we to meet a wall? Today's Stewardship over the Energy Landscape is hence an essential new leadership features.Stewardship over Energy (and Energy Transition management) requires clarity of vision, focus, courage and discipline in order to realize relevant change strategies which require new competencies, capabilities, capacities and skills. As change is required. Change in our Perspectives over the Energy Landscape. Change in the organisational forms by which we discuss and aim to resolve the energy challenge, and Change in the Leadership approach to the challenges awaiting us. It is this change (of Vision, Organizational Form and in Leadership ) which is - to my mind- the essential ingredient for our success.Whilst much of building the new energy architectures of the 21st century depends on our abilities to unlock and apply the new and promising energy technologies in powering our transportation, housing and cities and general infrastructure- it is this change of style and approach - with and within the sector which creates to my mind the best conditions for us to have a chance in the change.There is a great parallel in the developments in the international finance markets and those of the energy landscape (as there are differences, too). The causes of a crisis in the energy landscape can all be to do with uncovering revelations on holdership or availability of recoverable reserves (conventional or unconventional) or the sheer trading or international play with access to resources or demand-supply unbalances.The fact is that the people sitting on top of the value chain and in the money streams of energy have not a great incentive for change. The prognosis is that their status, position and influence over our society is only to grow.The opposite is true for the people outside the sector, at the lower scale of employment and made dependent on the availability of energy. These people are vulnerable, and generally have no voice- or take to the streets when it is generally much too late...The growing and rising global middle-class of the world - soon a 3 billion -plus people- are squeezed in between those two layers - and will feel the rising pressures of the cost of energy and transportation in their households.Meanwhile- and the larger and more powerful nations and continents on this planet- are also intertwined in a "cold resource war".Will these countries be able to come to grasp with a shared responsibility over energy and it's distribution- or will we see a much more competitive and -at times- rivalling and unhealthy relationships develop?Fact is - that all sides in this equation- believe in their right.That's why a shared stewardship over the energy landscape is so important. To better take responsibility over the whole.In a national or regional agenda, but also at the global and international scale.
- And finally- there is a perspective on the rise of a more conscious and shared leadership style. A leadership style which can transcend over own or own community needs and believes, and who can work, think and act from a global mind-set. Truly looking at complex situations from a detached, almost neutral position- and with the intent to best serve the whole. Making best use of positive psychology and hope. Whilst the above views are brief and just an example- and in no means intended to be conclusive- they can help us to better understand the situation we are in- and what stakeholder groups mind-maps can be. This is important for us to know. Perhaps it is relevant that before we address any problem, any complex situation- we may first better understand in what categories of perspectives our society and stakeholders are in today.. MY expectation is: all of the above and perhaps more. So- our pathways need to find some form of resonance (or ring some hidden bells) in them all. And remember: Resistance to change falls when the benefits are made clear. So- our pathways forward need to be able to demonstrate the benefits to all stakeholders. Collectively and individually. We have to become true social artists… That’s quite a challenge!!
- Happy, Positive, Compassion, Empathetic, Empowering, Making room, Etc. etc.
- Finally- Turning your Leadership beliefs or values upside-down is a next step forward. Understanding that the role of the leader is humble and is to create the conditions for others to flourish. To work with empathy and sympathy and the desire to give and share. Examples of what this leadership style means and takes are presently only being formed or understood- despite the fact that the philosophies and thinking on them have been now some 20-25 years with us. Our challenge is to blend all of the above – and all of these principles from history and today- in a realistic and workable solution in each and every culture and environment. Situational. But with the intent and passion for creation, growth and people. Only with this intent, and with those skills and capabilities can we see “great” execution in our countries and generations to come. MY view: the world deserves it.
- Een creatief in een accountancy baan bij een energie bedrijf Een pietjeprecies in een leiderschapsrol in de politiek Een generalist in een managementfunctie bij een klein provinciaalse onderneming
- Well part of Gundling’s view and teaching is that where-ever we are working in an international arena- we have to become aware, develop empathy and sympathy for the following aspects of people and foreign cultures. Core Values are: Trust, respect, listening, observation, empathy, flexibility, informed judgement, persistence Cultural dimensions are: individualism vs,. Group, task orientated vs. Relationship orientated, direct vs indirect, equality vs. Hierarchy The Awareness of what is being said, and awareness of what is not being said- or unconsciously expressed is a kind of 6th sense for people and situations.
- Now I come to another and perhaps a most important element of modern day execution. What sets further great execution apart from good execution. What makes an art. Not a science.. It is the people-stuff. The ability to sense and understand the variety in people. What drives them. What binds them. What unites, and what separates. To have a knack and to be able to bridge the gap between inter- and intra company disciplines. To be able to listen to the various cultures, and to create an environment where every body is safe and can positively contribute to the work.; This is true for work within one culture, and this is even more true for work across one or many cultures. I have been priviliged to have been exposed to both aspects, and feel blessed with the givings. A way to familiarize yourself with the extra challenges across nations and cultures- you can travel , befriend or educate yourself in this. I recommend the books and education of Gundling for any serious endeavours on this.