The document discusses a poll on voting intentions for Ireland's general election in 2011. It finds that Fianna Fail will do poorly, likely getting between 16-22% of first preference votes, down from 42% in 2007. Labour is expected to make significant gains but their support may be "flaky", predicting between the high teens to mid-twenties. Fine Gael is most likely to lead the next government, predicted to be between the low and mid-30s. Sinn Fein could do better than 2007 but closer to 10%. The Green Party may not have any TDs. Independents are expected to prosper, likely seeing more independent candidate seats.

1. Voting Intention Tracking Poll Jan 2011

6. Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

7. Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other General election 2007 June 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

8. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT Core figures 30 th Jan 2011 Excluding undecided 2007 Election Results % % % Fine Gael 26 33 27 Labour 17 21 10 Fianna Fáil 13 16 42 Sinn Féin 10 13 7 Green Party 2 2 5 Independents/ Others 12 15 6 Undecided 20

9. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 33% 21% 16% Independent 15% 2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 13% 2010

10. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 33% 21% 16% Independent 15% 2% 13%

11. First Preference Vote Share – 2007 vs. 2011 ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs Independent 2007 6 Polls Prior to Campaign 2007 Campaign 2007 Result 2011 6 Polls Prior to Campaign (38%) (23%) (12%) (8%=) 42% 27% 10% 5% 7% 6% (19%) (33%) (25%) (3%) (11%) (11%) Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Labour Independent Green Party Sinn Féin 6 poll Ave 6 poll Ave

12. Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) The Spiral of Silence Assumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them. To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election. We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time.

13. Second Preference among First preference voters FG % FF % Labour % % Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Independents Undecided First Preference Second Preference TOTAL %

14. Attitude to 1 st Preference Voting for this Party at Next General Election FG % FF % Labour % % % (Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 900) Definitely Will Likely To Might Do Probably Won’t Definitely Won’t D/K Refused

15. Strength of loyalty/disposition among claimed voters for each of the main parties LOYAL Will definitely vote for that party at next election FG % Dec 10 Jan 11 Labour % Party 1 st Preference LIKELY Will probably vote for that party at next election, but may change mind FLOATING Not sure who to vote for at the moment, but this party seems the best of any % % Dec 10 Jan 11 Dec 10 Jan 11 Dec 10 Jan 11

16. Best Taoiseach after Next General Election Eamonn Gilmore Q. Irrespective of which party you support, which of the main party leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland after the next general election? (Base: All Adults 18+ Years – 1,000) Enda Kenny Micheal Martin Don’t know None of these % Gerry Adams