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Voting Intention Tracking Poll June 2010
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Fine Gael   Fianna Fáil   Labour  Sinn Féin   Green Party   Independents/   Other If there were a  general  e lection  tomorrow, to which party  or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
Fianna Fáil   Fine Gael   Labour  Sinn Féin   Green Party   Independents/   Other General election 2007 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 If there were a  general  e lection  tomorrow, to which party  or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
Dec ’ 05 If there were a  general election  tomorrow, to which party  or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 33% 24% 27% Independent Mar ’ 06 Jun ’ 06 Oct ’ 06 Jan ’ 07 Apr ’ 07 May ’ 07 GE 2007 Oct ’ 07 Jan ’ 08 Apr ’ 08 Jun ’ 08 8% Oct ’ 08 Jan ’ 09 2% Apr ’ 09 GE 2002 Sep ’ 09 Nov ’ 09 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mar ’10 2010 Jun ’10 6%
If there were a  general election  tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 33% 24% 27% Independent GE 2007 Sep ’ 07 Oct ’ 07 Nov ’ 07 Jan ’ 08 Feb ’ 08 Mar ’ 08 Apr ’ 08 May ’ 08 Jun ’ 08 Sep ’ 08 8% Oct ’ 08 Nov ’ 08 Jan ’ 09 2% Feb ’ 09 Mar ’ 09 Apr ’ 09 May ’ 09 May ’ 09 Sep ’ 09 Sep ’ 09 Nov ’ 09 Oct ’ 09 Jan ’ 10 2008 2009 Feb ’ 10 Mar ’ 10 2010 Apr ’ 10 6% May ’ 10 Jun ’ 10
If there were a  general  e lection  tomorrow, to which party  or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT Core figures 27 th  June 2010 Excluding undecided 2007 Election Results % % % Fine Gael 28 33 27 Fianna Fáil 20 24 42 Labour 23 27 10 Sinn Féin 7 8 7 Green Party  2 2 5 Independents/Others 5 6 6 Undecided 15
Impact of Fine Gael leadership challenge victory by Enda Kenny on attitude towards him making a good Taoiseach ( Base:  All adults 18+) NET GAIN More confidence that he can make a good Taoiseach Has made no difference  NET GAIN TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Party Support at  last GE Age Less confidence that he can make a good Taoiseach 29% 21% 49% Don’t know +7% 1% ABC1 C2DE Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster Social Class Region
Yes No Understands people like me Will make/ Has made a good Taoiseach Is a safe pair of hands Image of Enda Kenny among the electorate vs.  Brian Cowen ratings in March 2010 ( Base:  All adults 18+) Capable of leading Ireland out of recession Don’t Know 8% 7% 7% 5% 5% Jun’10 Mar’10 Jun’10 Mar’10 Jun’10 Mar’10 Mar’10 4% 4% Jun’10 6%
Putting party support aside, which of these current leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland ( Base:  All adults 18+) None of these Eamonn Gilmore Enda  Kenny Eamonn Gilmore Support TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Current  Party Support Age Brian Cowen ABC1 C2DE Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster Social Class Region % 1 st  preference
Putting party support aside, which of these current leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland ( Base:  All adults 18+) None of these Eamonn Gilmore Enda  Kenny Brian Cowen % Best Taoiseach x Current Party Support FF FG Labour Other  (SF, Green, Ind) 24 28 80 46 18 59 10 17 49 7 6 20 9 5 3 17

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SBP June Poll 2010 Report

  • 1. Voting Intention Tracking Poll June 2010
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  • 6. Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
  • 7. Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other General election 2007 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
  • 8. Dec ’ 05 If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 33% 24% 27% Independent Mar ’ 06 Jun ’ 06 Oct ’ 06 Jan ’ 07 Apr ’ 07 May ’ 07 GE 2007 Oct ’ 07 Jan ’ 08 Apr ’ 08 Jun ’ 08 8% Oct ’ 08 Jan ’ 09 2% Apr ’ 09 GE 2002 Sep ’ 09 Nov ’ 09 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mar ’10 2010 Jun ’10 6%
  • 9. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 33% 24% 27% Independent GE 2007 Sep ’ 07 Oct ’ 07 Nov ’ 07 Jan ’ 08 Feb ’ 08 Mar ’ 08 Apr ’ 08 May ’ 08 Jun ’ 08 Sep ’ 08 8% Oct ’ 08 Nov ’ 08 Jan ’ 09 2% Feb ’ 09 Mar ’ 09 Apr ’ 09 May ’ 09 May ’ 09 Sep ’ 09 Sep ’ 09 Nov ’ 09 Oct ’ 09 Jan ’ 10 2008 2009 Feb ’ 10 Mar ’ 10 2010 Apr ’ 10 6% May ’ 10 Jun ’ 10
  • 10. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT Core figures 27 th June 2010 Excluding undecided 2007 Election Results % % % Fine Gael 28 33 27 Fianna Fáil 20 24 42 Labour 23 27 10 Sinn Féin 7 8 7 Green Party 2 2 5 Independents/Others 5 6 6 Undecided 15
  • 11. Impact of Fine Gael leadership challenge victory by Enda Kenny on attitude towards him making a good Taoiseach ( Base: All adults 18+) NET GAIN More confidence that he can make a good Taoiseach Has made no difference NET GAIN TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Party Support at last GE Age Less confidence that he can make a good Taoiseach 29% 21% 49% Don’t know +7% 1% ABC1 C2DE Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster Social Class Region
  • 12. Yes No Understands people like me Will make/ Has made a good Taoiseach Is a safe pair of hands Image of Enda Kenny among the electorate vs. Brian Cowen ratings in March 2010 ( Base: All adults 18+) Capable of leading Ireland out of recession Don’t Know 8% 7% 7% 5% 5% Jun’10 Mar’10 Jun’10 Mar’10 Jun’10 Mar’10 Mar’10 4% 4% Jun’10 6%
  • 13. Putting party support aside, which of these current leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland ( Base: All adults 18+) None of these Eamonn Gilmore Enda Kenny Eamonn Gilmore Support TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Current Party Support Age Brian Cowen ABC1 C2DE Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster Social Class Region % 1 st preference
  • 14. Putting party support aside, which of these current leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland ( Base: All adults 18+) None of these Eamonn Gilmore Enda Kenny Brian Cowen % Best Taoiseach x Current Party Support FF FG Labour Other (SF, Green, Ind) 24 28 80 46 18 59 10 17 49 7 6 20 9 5 3 17