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Indy Politics Mason Strategies October 2019 Poll (Mayor's Race)

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With just under two weeks to go before Election Day, a new poll by Indy Politics and Mason Strategies shows incumbent Mayor Democrat Joe Hogsett enjoying a comfortable lead over Republican challenger Jim Merritt in the Indianapolis Mayor's race.

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Indy Politics Mason Strategies October 2019 Poll (Mayor's Race)

  1. 1. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics October 2019 Indianapolis Brushfire – TOPLINE RESULTS 1 Topline Results - Indianapolis Brushfire n=350 likely voters October 14-17, 2019 Introduction & Screener Questions 1. First, are you or any member of your family a member of the news media, a public relations company, or an active participant with any political campaign? No 100% 2. When there are local elections for mayor and the city-county council, do you always vote, almost always vote, vote most of the time, vote some of the time, hardly ever vote, or never vote? Always vote 66% Almost always vote 18% Vote most of the time 16% Mayor’s Ballot 3. If the election for Mayor of Indianapolis were held tomorrow, would you vote for [ROTATE] Joe Hogsett, the Democrat, Jim Merritt, the Republican [END ROTATE], or Douglas McNaughton, the Libertarian? IF VOTE: Is that definitely or likely? TOTAL MERRITT 23% Definitely Merritt 19% Likely Merritt 5% TOTAL HOGSETT 57% Definitely Hogsett 48% Likely Hogsett 9% TOTAL McNAUGHTON 4% Definitely McNaughton 3% Likely McNaughton 1%
  2. 2. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics October 2019 Indianapolis Brushfire – TOPLINE RESULTS 2 Undecided/Refused 15%
  3. 3. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics October 2019 Indianapolis Brushfire – TOPLINE RESULTS 3 4. Now thinking about things here in the city, would you say that things in the city of Indianapolis are headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction 57% Wrong Track 28% DK/Refused 15% 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Joe Hogsett is doing as Mayor of Indianapolis? PROBE: Is that strongly or somewhat? TOTAL APPROVE 72% Strongly approve 30% Somewhat approve 41% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 19% Strongly disapprove 9% Somewhat disapprove 10% DK/Refused 9% 6. As you may know, the City-County Council governs the city of Indianapolis and Marion County, and has 25 districts. How familiar are you with the City-Councilor that represents your district? TOTAL FAMILIAR 38% Very familiar 15% Somewhat familiar 23% TOTAL NOT FAMILIAR 60% Not too familiar 27% Not at all familiar 33% DK/Refused 2%
  4. 4. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics October 2019 Indianapolis Brushfire – TOPLINE RESULTS 4 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the City-County Council as a whole is doing? PROBE: Is that strongly or somewhat? TOTAL APPROVE 55% Strongly approve 13% Somewhat approve 42% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 23% Strongly disapprove 10% Somewhat disapprove 14% DK/Refused 22% 8. If the election were held tomorrow, would you [ROTATE] vote to re-elect your City-County Council Member OR vote to replace your City-County Council Member? Re-elect 38% Replace 25% Undecided [vol.] 26% DK/Refused 11% 9. If the election for your city-county council member were held tomorrow, would you vote for [ROTATE] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate [END ROTATE] in your district? IF VOTE: Is that definitely or likely? TOTAL REPUBLICAN 27% Definitely Republican 18% Likely Republican 9% TOTAL DEMOCRAT 56% Definitely Democrat 42% Likely Democrat 14% Undecided/Refused 17%
  5. 5. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics October 2019 Indianapolis Brushfire – TOPLINE RESULTS 5 Other Issues 10. Now thinking specifically about public safety, would you say that Indianapolis as a whole is more safe or less safe than a year ago? More safe 28% Less safe 40% About the same [VOL.] 21% DK/Refused 11% 11. Moving on, do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the IndyGo Red Line? If you have no opinion or have never heard of it before, just say so. PROBE: Is that strongly (favorable/unfavorable) or just somewhat? TOTAL FAVORABLE 35% Strongly favorable 20% Somewhat favorable 16% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 29% Strongly unfavorable 10% Somewhat unfavorable 19% No opinion 29% Never heard of/Refused 7% Demographics 12. Wrapping up, I have just a few more questions for demographic purposes only. First, in which of the following ranges is your age: 18-40 24% 41-54 21% 55-64 33% 65 or older 22% Refused 1% 13. Gender: Male 49% Female 51%
  6. 6. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics October 2019 Indianapolis Brushfire – TOPLINE RESULTS 6 14. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity? White 67% Hispanic or Latino 2% African-American 21% Asian-American * Something else 6% Refused 3% 15. Which township do you live in? Center 20% Decatur 4% Franklin 7% Lawrence 13% Perry 11% Pike 9% Warren 9% Washington 19% Wayne 9% 16. If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a [ROTATE] liberal, moderate, or conservative in your political beliefs? IF LIBERAL OR CONSERVATIVE, PROBE: Is that very [liberal/conservative] or somewhat? TOTAL CONSERVATIVE 29% Very conservative 15% Somewhat conservative 14% TOTAL MODERATE 37% TOTAL LIBERAL 26% Somewhat liberal 13% Very liberal 13% DK/Refused 8%
  7. 7. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics October 2019 Indianapolis Brushfire – TOPLINE RESULTS 7 17. In politics, do you generally consider yourself to be a (ROTATE) Republican, Independent, or Democrat? IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, PROBE: Is that a strong (Republican/Democrat) or not-so-strong? TOTAL REPUBLICAN 21% Strong Republican 17% Not-so-strong Republican 5% TOTAL INDEPENDENT 28% TOTAL DEMOCRAT 45% Not-so-strong Democrat 5% Strong Democrat 39% Other 3% DK/Refused 3% 18. What is the highest level of education you have completed? Some high school 1% Graduated high school 17% Some college or associate’s 39% Graduated college 23% Masters/Post-Graduate 17% DK/Refused 2% 19. Which of the following categories best describes your annual household income? IF REFUSED INITIALLY: This information is for demographic purposes and is confidential. Which of these broad income categories best describes your annual household income? Less than $25,000 11% $25,000 to less than $50,000 14% $50,000 to less than $100,000 29% $100,000 to less than $150,000 17% $150,000 or more 13% DK/Refused 15% Thank you for your time. This call was authorized and paid for by Indy Politics.
  8. 8. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics October 2019 Indianapolis Brushfire – TOPLINE RESULTS 8 Methodology Statement On behalf of IndyPolitics.org, Mason Strategies, LLC, a research firm located out of Woodbridge, Virginia, conducted a telephone survey of 350 likely voters in Marion County, Indiana. The survey was completed from October 14-17, 2019 using live interviewers from a call center who called of landline and cell phones. 50% of the interviews were completed on cell phones. The survey used RBS (Registration-Based Sampling) methodology, using voter registration records to create a random sample of voters who have voted in at least two of the previous four general elections, or were newly registered to vote. The final sample was weighted for age and education. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.2% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error applies to each individual data point at the topline level. When applying margins of error to relative analysis (e.g., a ballot test), it would apply to each data point and not the margin between the two. Thus, even a difference greater than 5.2% between two data points may not be statistically significant. Sampling error is larger for subgroup analysis. Pollster Contact: Stephen Spiker President & Owner of Mason Strategies (757) 618-0676 email: stephen.spiker@gmail.com www.masonstrategies.com Sponsor Contact: Abdul-Hakim Shabazz IndyPolitics.org (317) 727-1250 attyabdul@gmail.com

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