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WHERE SOFTWARE CONCEPTS COME ALIVE
Outsourcing operations
during political instability
Current business climate in Ukraine and beyond
Copyright © 2014 Intetics Co.
AGENDA: IT OUTSOURCING IN POLITICAL INSTABILITY – UKRAINE
Geopolitical concerns: What’s
at stake?
Geopolitical risk management
Lessons from history
Ukraine business climate
Ukraine IT
Crisis impact: fears,
opportunities, future
Closing thoughts
SPEAKER: BORIS KONTSEVOI
Founder and President of Intetics Co., IT
outsourcing and software development company
Certified Outsourcing Professional
Speaking at IAOP Chicago Chapter Meeting,
Thursday July 17th 2014
Twitter: @BorisKontsevoi
LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/boriskontsevoi
XING:
https://www.xing.com/profile/Boris_Kontsevoi
Established in 1995
Over 450 full time employees
About 130 “crowd” contractors
Customers in 30+ countries
200+ successful projects
INTETICS: IT OUTSOURCING AND SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COMPANY
Head Office: Chicago, IL
Global Locations:
Düsseldorf, Germany
Tokyo, Japan
Delivery Centers:
Minsk, Belarus
Kyiv, Ukraine
Kharkiv, Ukraine2006-2014 Top Outsourcing 100
2007-2014 Global Services 100
2009-2014 Software 500
2008-2014 Inc 500/5000
2010 European IT Excellence Award
2014 EOA Best Project Award
BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE?
2013 Philippine typhoon: Power outages & delays
“IT-BP operations in the cities of Cebu, Iloilo, and Dumaguete [were]
suspended in preparation for the typhoon. Temporary power outages
and disruption in telecommunications infrastructure led to higher
absenteeism in these cities. Flight connectivity was hampered with the
cancellation of a number of domestic and international flights.”
– Everest Group
2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks: Need for contingency plans
Attacks “will not affect outsourcing, but it is a concern that points to
the prevailing bad condition of Indo-Pak relations; companies need to
assess the risks and make sure they are outlined in their contracts”
– Alsbridge
2014 Ukraine crisis: Falling sales
“It definitely affected the industry. Even though the clients are
sympathetic of what’s going on, and they kind of trust what we say to
them, we did notice that there is a fall in pre-sales.”
- Ciklum, Ukraine
BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE?
Egypt’s Uprisings: Internet shut-off
“When the first response of the government, in times of political crisis, is to shut
down the Web, this has a massive impact on the nation's global sourcing
infrastructure to support global businesses.”
– Phil Fersht, HfS Research
Japan-China island dispute: Limited trade
“As many as 60% of China’s corporate leaders [are] unwilling to do business with
Japanese firms, according to a new poll. Only 13% of Chinese businessmen said that
they were able to separate their work from the current political tensions.”
– Telegraph.co.uk
Argentina debt restructuring: Default?
“If Argentina defaults, the country would be completely excluded from the financial
markets. There would be devaluation, inflation, unemployment, and economic
activity would go down,”
– Marcos Leonetti, economist, La Economia Online
USA-Mexico travel restrictions: Dangerous travel
“U.S. citizens have been the target of violent crimes, such as kidnapping,
carjacking, and robbery by TCOs in various Mexican states.”
–US Department of State
BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE?
How do geopolitical risks affect offshore investors?
Project management:
Project deliverables & workforce productivity
Talent shortage & brain drain
Data loss & security
Communication & connectivity problems
Strategic planning:
Necessary awareness of political risks
Creation of contingency plans
Preventative contract clauses
Financial concerns:
Increased costs
Unexpected transition costs
Canceled projects
Loss of investment
Presence in unstable markets:
Foreign seizure & policy risk (graph)
Opaque policy-making equivalent to 33%
increase in taxation
Loss of communications (like Internet) Emerging markets: Since 1980, foreign companies experience less
seizures, but more political risks like regulatory action
BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE?
Internet communication:
Technological base for
outsourcing and globalization
Internet cables have become as
important as oil pipelines
… raising similar
geopolitical concerns
Location and access to cables
depends on diplomatic relations
with other countries
Implications for big cloud data
centers?
(Google just finished building a
huge one in Finland)
First Internet infrastructure was laid in mid-20th century
Countries with capability of shutting down
national internet:
Russia, China, Syria, Egypt, Iran, Libya,
Maldives, Nepal, Burma, North Korea,
Turkey
GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
“To remain a global
player today, a firm
must be able to
survive not only
economic downturns,
but also geopolitical
shocks.”
– Sven Behrendt &
Parag Khanna
World Economic Forum advisors
“With the political situation between
_______________ tense, analysts
[are] warning clients that have
outsourced operations to ______
companies to ensure they not only
have thorough contingency plans in
place, but that they are in "constant
communication with their vendors" to
make sure that those plans are "viable
and can be executed immediately".
– Information Age, 20__
GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
“With the political situation between
Pakistan and India tense, analysts
[are] warning clients that have
outsourced operations to Indian
companies to ensure they not only
have thorough contingency plans in
place, but that they are in "constant
communication with their vendors" to
make sure that those plans are "viable
and can be executed immediately".
– Information Age, 2006
What can we learn from
history?
How have companies
dealt with this before?
Some economic impact is to be expected, but it can be managed
Example: Historically, the India and Pakistan conflict has often
affected the levels of FDI flowing into the country
GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
2001-02 India-Pakistan
standoff
Dec 2001 – June 2002,
escalation May 2002
26-29 Nov 2008 Mumbai
terrorist attacks
26-30 Dec 2008 conflict
escalation
But it seems that what matters most is the commercial partner,
not the geopolitical climate itself
Example:
Stock prices of Infosys and Wipro show no major divergences when compared to
NASDAQ during conflict escalation
GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
2001-2002 India-Pakistan stand-off 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks
GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT
Actions within client’s
control:
Strong project management
Process orientation
Onsite knowledge retention
Good system documentation
Open communication with
vendor
All these things make it
easier to transfer work when
absolutely necessary
Biggest risk is for companies that are
unprepared (typically small companies)
Globalization requires companies to:
Define governance
Be aware of regional vulnerabilities
Protect information and technology
Preparation throughout outsourcing
lifecycle:
Define strategy & operating model
Develop solutions & proposals
translate goals into solution
scenarios; consider risks including
geopolitical risks
Evaluate deal & transactions
Manage transition
Manage relationship
UKRAINE: CURRENT SITUATION
Dec 2013-Feb 2014: Mass protests &
ousting of president
March: Annexation of Crimea by Russia
May 25th: Ukraine presidential
elections
July: Fighting in Eastern Ukraine
continues (map)
July 10th map of rebels and
gov’t forces:
Situation now better:
rebels fleeing from
gov’t offensive
Economic cost: Ukraine has borrowed
more money in 2014 than during the
2008 recession
UKRAINE: IT INDUSTRY
Talent
30,000 ICT graduates every year; 861 universities
47,000 professionals
4th country with most certified IT professionals
Industry growth
20-25% annual market growth (2013)
$1.3 US$ billion industry
Cost efficiency
Rates in IT are 42% of those in USA
Lower wages than EU members
Developer salaries range $18,000-$48,000 (after tax)
Government support
Intention to become “Silicon Valley of Europe”
Efforts to prevent brain drain; create 100,000 jobs by 2020
Expansion of tax benefits (currently: 5% tax rate for IT companies)
“Innovative Ukraine” initiative to improve IT education & industry
UKRAINE: CRISIS IMPACT ON INDUSTRY
Customers are more cautious
Asking about contingency plans & formulating transition strategy
Some are transitioning out of Ukraine and considering new locations
Observed drop in pre-sales and new contracts
Observed drop in stock prices for EPAM and Luxoft; with signs of recovery
“Some clients have voiced concerns over the situation in Ukraine, but queries from customers
tended to seek information on regional plans, rather than worries about the feasibility of
continuing to do business there.” - Luxoft, Ukraine
UKRAINE: FEARS & RISKS
Propaganda and “hybrid wars”
Continued instability perpetuated by war propaganda
“Infused” instability
Recession
Economic downturn after conflict
Political instability
IT market fragmentation
Population movement causing permanent fragmentation; small
companies increasingly unable to compete
Personnel shortage & brain drain
Fear of talent shortage caused by military draft
Immigration
Delivery interruption
Infrastructure damages
Developers fleeing troubled regions affect workflow
Monetary loss
UKRAINE: FEARS & RISKS
Information and data loss
Need for backup and recovery schemes
Availability of local hardware, connection and project management tools
Loss of bookkeeping, finance, legal support
Network & infrastructure security
Continued support and connection for production and delivery
Retain access to all parts of the system
Employee safety
Employees getting to work on time and unharmed
Communication plans in case of danger
Ability to work from home
Contingency plans
Is there a plan of action in case of imminent danger
What is the worst-case-scenario (at which point does production stop?)
Need to transition project
What are plans to transition work to other locations and assure delivery
continuation
Status of team and employees in case transition becomes necessary
(relocation vs. new team)
Time needed for relocation & restoration of production
UKRAINE: NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Fall of Hryvna
Dropping currency can become an extra advantage
(helped in India)
Best offshoring destination
Ukraine remains an attractive IT regions in CEE (provided the conflict is
resolved)
Increased government support
To avoid recession, new government is actively trying to support IT
market
Low attrition:
Developers might be more likely to stick with their jobs to avoid insecurity
Moving West-ward
Ukraine has been traditionally split between Russia and the West; Russia
over-stepping its boundaries might propel Ukraine to join the EU and look
to the West
“Traditional” EU acceptance transformation period with high volume of
FDI
Concentration on High-tech
Industry is likely to move further into high-tech development with new
funds from EU
UKRAINE: POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES
Rapidly rising outsourcing location
Became prominent outsourcing location in last 5 years
Became “equal” to other locations like India, Latin America, China,
SEA, Africa
Developing trust…that’s now lost
Clients perceived adequate business conditions
After 25 years free of Soviet rule
Big business finally began to explore the region
First mega deal (EPAM & Barclays ODC for 700 people)
Long-term regional damage
Slower CAGR: mega deals will go elsewhere
Eastern Europe market share: still short/mid-term R&D projects
Puts the region back 10-20 years
Negative perception of Russia rose from 42% in 2013 to 72% in 2014
in US, from 54% to 74% in Europe
CLOSING THOUGHTS
Situation improving
Last week S&P changed Ukrainian rating from ‘CCC negative’ to ‘stable’
Rebels flee under Ukrainian government offensive
Rebel forces on May 20th 2014 Rebel forces on July 10th 2014
CLOSING THOUGHTS
Service delivery will continue
“Over the longer term -- the next three or more years -- the issues with Russia are unlikely to
have a significant impact on service delivery in Ukraine. Ukraine's proposition as a technology
service location is well-established, particularly for domain-intensive skills.”
— Salil Dani (Everest Group)
“Workers actually stepped up productivity this year, despite distractions. (Or maybe because of
those distractions.)” —Anthony Conte, EPAM Ukraine
Demand on the rise
The demand for talented software engineers is increasing
Very bright future for Ukraine, if situation de-escalates
People will realize it’s not Russia
IT organizations contract with companies, not countries
“IT organizations and CIOs don't contract and outsource to countries, they contract and
outsource to companies. Given that, it's time to stop assessing location-based risk in a vacuum
because sometimes the 'riskiest' suppliers may have the most innovative solutions.”
– Charles Green, Forrester Research
Businesses are politically agnostic
Locations & partners selected based on ROI
Ukraine will be able to provide attractive ROI for many companies even after conflict
809 Ridge Rd. Suite 205
Wilmette, IL 60091
Tel : +1 (312) 625-5669
Fax : +1 (847) 256-3190
Email : contact@intetics.com
Questions?
Connect with Intetics:
1. "Business Contingency Plan." In Internal Documents: Intetics Co. , 2014
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http://www.strategicforesight.com/publications_inner.php?id=26#.U8QLJ5RdWcc
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ukrainians/
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content/uploads/2014/05/it-ukraine-270x270.jpg.
7. "Mexico Travel Warning." US Department of State
http://travel.state.gov/content/passports/english/alertswarnings/mexico-travel-warning.html
8. "Negative Views of Russia on the Rise: Global Poll ". BBC World Service,
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/country-rating-poll.pdf
9. "Offshore Outsourcing at Risk from Conflict?". Information Week, http://www.information-
age.com/industry/uk-industry/299416/offshore-outsourcing-at-risk-from-conflict
10. "Outsourcing Amid Complexity." Deloitte, http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-
UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/IMOs/Shared%20Services/us_sdt_outsourcing_amid_complexity
_112613.pdf.
11. "Outsourcing Industry and Technology Landscape of Ukraine and Belarus." Intetics Co. ,
http://www.intetics.com/custom-software-development-company/white-papers/download-white-
paper/?wpid=45.
SOURCES
12. "Philippines It and Business Process Operations Fail to Fall to Typhoon Haiyan’s Fury." Everest Group
http://www.everestgrp.com/2013-11-philippines-it-and-business-process-operations-fail-to-fall-to-
typhoon-haiyans-fury-sherpas-in-blue-shirts-12413.html#sthash.XBer3XLH.dpuf
13. "Stock Data (Nasdaq, Lxft, Epam, Infy, Wit) ". Yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com.
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16. "Us Admits Relations with Argentina Are “Difficult” and Calls for Positive Attitude." Merco Press,
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17. "Опрос: Курс Путина Поддерживают В Бангладеш И Китае." BBC: Russia,
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18. "Украинцы Вынесли Из Банков Больше, Чем В Кризис 2008-Го." news.ru.ua,
http://rus.newsru.ua/finance/11jul2014/naiman.html
19. Behrendt, Sven and Parag Khanna. "Risky Business: Geopolitics and the Global Corporation."
Strategy+Business, http://www.strategy-business.com/article/03308?pg=all.
20. Birmiwal, Kaushik "The Impact of the Philippines Typhoon on Global Trade Economy." The Smart Cube,
http://www.thesmartcube.com/insights/blog/blog-details/insights/2013/11/14/the-impact-of-the-
philippines-typhoon-on-global-trade-economy
21. Chang, Gordon G. . "The Chinese and Japanese Economies Are Delinking: Prelude to Conflict?" Forbes
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delinking-prelude-to-conflict/
SOURCES
22. Demetriou, Danielle. "Majority of Chinese Business Leaders 'Unwilling' to Trade with Japan Amid Tensions."
Telegraph.co.uk, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/10560302/Majority-of-Chinese-
business-leaders-unwilling-to-trade-with-Japan-amid-tensions.html
23. Eisenberg, Aviram. "The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on Its It Market." Outsourcing Journal,
http://www.outsourcing-journal.org/cee-2/946-the-impact-of-the-ukraine-crisis-on-its-it-market.
24. Fersht, Phil. "Egypt's Crisis: Where Social Media Threatens Global Outsourcing." ZDnet,
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/egypts-crisis-where-social-media-threatens-global-outsourcing/44255
25. Hackman, Mark. "Syria and 7 Other Places in the World the Internet Has Been Shut Off." PCMag.com,
http://www.pcmag.com/slideshow/story/311237/syria-and-7-other-places-the-internet-has-been-shut-
off/1
26. Henisz, Witold J. and Bennet A. Zelner. "The Hidden Risks in Emerging Markets." HBR.org,
http://hbr.org/2010/04/the-hidden-risks-in-emerging-markets/ar/1
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geopolitica-dinternet/
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Blog http://www.theoutsourceblog.com/2014/07/business-as-usual-for-ukraines-outsourcers-but-its-it-
workers-are-on-the-move/
29. Kirihara, Randy. "Managing Political Risk in Offshore Outsourcing."
http://www.conexl.com/docs/101/randy.pdf.
30. Latynina, Yuliya. Эха Москвы, http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/code/1358014-echo/#element-text
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31. Markowitz, Eric. "The Ukraine Crisis Could Kill Its Tech Outsourcing Boom." Vocativ,
http://www.vocativ.com/world/ukraine-world/ukraines-booming-sector-jeopardy-amid-political-instability-
war/
32. McGarry, Mike. "How the Mumbai Terrorist Attacks Affect You and Your Outsourcing Operations."
Alsbridge Inc., http://www.outsourcingleadership.com/knowledgebase/articles/outsourcing-operations
33. Oakford, Samuel "Ukraine Turns up the Charm to Capture Billions in It Outsourcing." Vice News,
https://news.vice.com/article/ukraine-turns-up-the-charm-to-capture-billions-in-it-outsourcing
34. Overby, Stephanie. "How to Evaluate the Risk of Outsourcing Locations." CIO.com,
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disruption.html.
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SOURCES

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Ukraine Crisis: Geopolitical Risk Management in IT Outsourcing

  • 1. WHERE SOFTWARE CONCEPTS COME ALIVE Outsourcing operations during political instability Current business climate in Ukraine and beyond Copyright © 2014 Intetics Co.
  • 2. AGENDA: IT OUTSOURCING IN POLITICAL INSTABILITY – UKRAINE Geopolitical concerns: What’s at stake? Geopolitical risk management Lessons from history Ukraine business climate Ukraine IT Crisis impact: fears, opportunities, future Closing thoughts
  • 3. SPEAKER: BORIS KONTSEVOI Founder and President of Intetics Co., IT outsourcing and software development company Certified Outsourcing Professional Speaking at IAOP Chicago Chapter Meeting, Thursday July 17th 2014 Twitter: @BorisKontsevoi LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/boriskontsevoi XING: https://www.xing.com/profile/Boris_Kontsevoi
  • 4. Established in 1995 Over 450 full time employees About 130 “crowd” contractors Customers in 30+ countries 200+ successful projects INTETICS: IT OUTSOURCING AND SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COMPANY Head Office: Chicago, IL Global Locations: Düsseldorf, Germany Tokyo, Japan Delivery Centers: Minsk, Belarus Kyiv, Ukraine Kharkiv, Ukraine2006-2014 Top Outsourcing 100 2007-2014 Global Services 100 2009-2014 Software 500 2008-2014 Inc 500/5000 2010 European IT Excellence Award 2014 EOA Best Project Award
  • 5. BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE? 2013 Philippine typhoon: Power outages & delays “IT-BP operations in the cities of Cebu, Iloilo, and Dumaguete [were] suspended in preparation for the typhoon. Temporary power outages and disruption in telecommunications infrastructure led to higher absenteeism in these cities. Flight connectivity was hampered with the cancellation of a number of domestic and international flights.” – Everest Group 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks: Need for contingency plans Attacks “will not affect outsourcing, but it is a concern that points to the prevailing bad condition of Indo-Pak relations; companies need to assess the risks and make sure they are outlined in their contracts” – Alsbridge 2014 Ukraine crisis: Falling sales “It definitely affected the industry. Even though the clients are sympathetic of what’s going on, and they kind of trust what we say to them, we did notice that there is a fall in pre-sales.” - Ciklum, Ukraine
  • 6. BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE? Egypt’s Uprisings: Internet shut-off “When the first response of the government, in times of political crisis, is to shut down the Web, this has a massive impact on the nation's global sourcing infrastructure to support global businesses.” – Phil Fersht, HfS Research Japan-China island dispute: Limited trade “As many as 60% of China’s corporate leaders [are] unwilling to do business with Japanese firms, according to a new poll. Only 13% of Chinese businessmen said that they were able to separate their work from the current political tensions.” – Telegraph.co.uk Argentina debt restructuring: Default? “If Argentina defaults, the country would be completely excluded from the financial markets. There would be devaluation, inflation, unemployment, and economic activity would go down,” – Marcos Leonetti, economist, La Economia Online USA-Mexico travel restrictions: Dangerous travel “U.S. citizens have been the target of violent crimes, such as kidnapping, carjacking, and robbery by TCOs in various Mexican states.” –US Department of State
  • 7. BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE? How do geopolitical risks affect offshore investors? Project management: Project deliverables & workforce productivity Talent shortage & brain drain Data loss & security Communication & connectivity problems Strategic planning: Necessary awareness of political risks Creation of contingency plans Preventative contract clauses Financial concerns: Increased costs Unexpected transition costs Canceled projects Loss of investment Presence in unstable markets: Foreign seizure & policy risk (graph) Opaque policy-making equivalent to 33% increase in taxation Loss of communications (like Internet) Emerging markets: Since 1980, foreign companies experience less seizures, but more political risks like regulatory action
  • 8. BUSINESS & GEOPOLITICAL CRISES: WHAT’S AT STAKE? Internet communication: Technological base for outsourcing and globalization Internet cables have become as important as oil pipelines … raising similar geopolitical concerns Location and access to cables depends on diplomatic relations with other countries Implications for big cloud data centers? (Google just finished building a huge one in Finland) First Internet infrastructure was laid in mid-20th century Countries with capability of shutting down national internet: Russia, China, Syria, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Maldives, Nepal, Burma, North Korea, Turkey
  • 9. GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT “To remain a global player today, a firm must be able to survive not only economic downturns, but also geopolitical shocks.” – Sven Behrendt & Parag Khanna World Economic Forum advisors “With the political situation between _______________ tense, analysts [are] warning clients that have outsourced operations to ______ companies to ensure they not only have thorough contingency plans in place, but that they are in "constant communication with their vendors" to make sure that those plans are "viable and can be executed immediately". – Information Age, 20__
  • 10. GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT “With the political situation between Pakistan and India tense, analysts [are] warning clients that have outsourced operations to Indian companies to ensure they not only have thorough contingency plans in place, but that they are in "constant communication with their vendors" to make sure that those plans are "viable and can be executed immediately". – Information Age, 2006 What can we learn from history? How have companies dealt with this before?
  • 11. Some economic impact is to be expected, but it can be managed Example: Historically, the India and Pakistan conflict has often affected the levels of FDI flowing into the country GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2001-02 India-Pakistan standoff Dec 2001 – June 2002, escalation May 2002 26-29 Nov 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks 26-30 Dec 2008 conflict escalation
  • 12. But it seems that what matters most is the commercial partner, not the geopolitical climate itself Example: Stock prices of Infosys and Wipro show no major divergences when compared to NASDAQ during conflict escalation GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2001-2002 India-Pakistan stand-off 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks
  • 13. GEOPOLITICAL RISK MANAGEMENT Actions within client’s control: Strong project management Process orientation Onsite knowledge retention Good system documentation Open communication with vendor All these things make it easier to transfer work when absolutely necessary Biggest risk is for companies that are unprepared (typically small companies) Globalization requires companies to: Define governance Be aware of regional vulnerabilities Protect information and technology Preparation throughout outsourcing lifecycle: Define strategy & operating model Develop solutions & proposals translate goals into solution scenarios; consider risks including geopolitical risks Evaluate deal & transactions Manage transition Manage relationship
  • 14. UKRAINE: CURRENT SITUATION Dec 2013-Feb 2014: Mass protests & ousting of president March: Annexation of Crimea by Russia May 25th: Ukraine presidential elections July: Fighting in Eastern Ukraine continues (map) July 10th map of rebels and gov’t forces: Situation now better: rebels fleeing from gov’t offensive Economic cost: Ukraine has borrowed more money in 2014 than during the 2008 recession
  • 15. UKRAINE: IT INDUSTRY Talent 30,000 ICT graduates every year; 861 universities 47,000 professionals 4th country with most certified IT professionals Industry growth 20-25% annual market growth (2013) $1.3 US$ billion industry Cost efficiency Rates in IT are 42% of those in USA Lower wages than EU members Developer salaries range $18,000-$48,000 (after tax) Government support Intention to become “Silicon Valley of Europe” Efforts to prevent brain drain; create 100,000 jobs by 2020 Expansion of tax benefits (currently: 5% tax rate for IT companies) “Innovative Ukraine” initiative to improve IT education & industry
  • 16. UKRAINE: CRISIS IMPACT ON INDUSTRY Customers are more cautious Asking about contingency plans & formulating transition strategy Some are transitioning out of Ukraine and considering new locations Observed drop in pre-sales and new contracts Observed drop in stock prices for EPAM and Luxoft; with signs of recovery “Some clients have voiced concerns over the situation in Ukraine, but queries from customers tended to seek information on regional plans, rather than worries about the feasibility of continuing to do business there.” - Luxoft, Ukraine
  • 17. UKRAINE: FEARS & RISKS Propaganda and “hybrid wars” Continued instability perpetuated by war propaganda “Infused” instability Recession Economic downturn after conflict Political instability IT market fragmentation Population movement causing permanent fragmentation; small companies increasingly unable to compete Personnel shortage & brain drain Fear of talent shortage caused by military draft Immigration Delivery interruption Infrastructure damages Developers fleeing troubled regions affect workflow Monetary loss
  • 18. UKRAINE: FEARS & RISKS Information and data loss Need for backup and recovery schemes Availability of local hardware, connection and project management tools Loss of bookkeeping, finance, legal support Network & infrastructure security Continued support and connection for production and delivery Retain access to all parts of the system Employee safety Employees getting to work on time and unharmed Communication plans in case of danger Ability to work from home Contingency plans Is there a plan of action in case of imminent danger What is the worst-case-scenario (at which point does production stop?) Need to transition project What are plans to transition work to other locations and assure delivery continuation Status of team and employees in case transition becomes necessary (relocation vs. new team) Time needed for relocation & restoration of production
  • 19. UKRAINE: NEW OPPORTUNITIES Fall of Hryvna Dropping currency can become an extra advantage (helped in India) Best offshoring destination Ukraine remains an attractive IT regions in CEE (provided the conflict is resolved) Increased government support To avoid recession, new government is actively trying to support IT market Low attrition: Developers might be more likely to stick with their jobs to avoid insecurity Moving West-ward Ukraine has been traditionally split between Russia and the West; Russia over-stepping its boundaries might propel Ukraine to join the EU and look to the West “Traditional” EU acceptance transformation period with high volume of FDI Concentration on High-tech Industry is likely to move further into high-tech development with new funds from EU
  • 20. UKRAINE: POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES Rapidly rising outsourcing location Became prominent outsourcing location in last 5 years Became “equal” to other locations like India, Latin America, China, SEA, Africa Developing trust…that’s now lost Clients perceived adequate business conditions After 25 years free of Soviet rule Big business finally began to explore the region First mega deal (EPAM & Barclays ODC for 700 people) Long-term regional damage Slower CAGR: mega deals will go elsewhere Eastern Europe market share: still short/mid-term R&D projects Puts the region back 10-20 years Negative perception of Russia rose from 42% in 2013 to 72% in 2014 in US, from 54% to 74% in Europe
  • 21. CLOSING THOUGHTS Situation improving Last week S&P changed Ukrainian rating from ‘CCC negative’ to ‘stable’ Rebels flee under Ukrainian government offensive Rebel forces on May 20th 2014 Rebel forces on July 10th 2014
  • 22. CLOSING THOUGHTS Service delivery will continue “Over the longer term -- the next three or more years -- the issues with Russia are unlikely to have a significant impact on service delivery in Ukraine. Ukraine's proposition as a technology service location is well-established, particularly for domain-intensive skills.” — Salil Dani (Everest Group) “Workers actually stepped up productivity this year, despite distractions. (Or maybe because of those distractions.)” —Anthony Conte, EPAM Ukraine Demand on the rise The demand for talented software engineers is increasing Very bright future for Ukraine, if situation de-escalates People will realize it’s not Russia IT organizations contract with companies, not countries “IT organizations and CIOs don't contract and outsource to countries, they contract and outsource to companies. Given that, it's time to stop assessing location-based risk in a vacuum because sometimes the 'riskiest' suppliers may have the most innovative solutions.” – Charles Green, Forrester Research Businesses are politically agnostic Locations & partners selected based on ROI Ukraine will be able to provide attractive ROI for many companies even after conflict
  • 23. 809 Ridge Rd. Suite 205 Wilmette, IL 60091 Tel : +1 (312) 625-5669 Fax : +1 (847) 256-3190 Email : contact@intetics.com Questions? Connect with Intetics:
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