SBP Sept Poll Report 2010

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SBP Sept Poll Report 2010

  1. 1. Voting Intention Tracking Poll Sept 2010
  2. 2. Methodology and Weighting <ul><li>RED C interviewed a random sample of 1004 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 20 th & 22 nd Sept 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. </li></ul><ul><li>Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. </li></ul><ul><li>Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two. </li></ul><ul><li>Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote. </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 26 th Sept 2010 - Opinion Poll </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Fianna Fail support stable despite a negative reaction to Cowen </li></ul><ul><li>At the start of the new Dáil term this Sunday Business Post/ RED C tracking poll provides parties with a clearer understanding of where they stand after a long summer break. In particular what impact, if any, the events of recent weeks have had on core party support when compared directly to our regular tracking data, with the last poll conducted in June. </li></ul><ul><li>This polls main finding is that none of the parties appear to have come out of their pre Dáil get together events, with any particularly positive gains among the public. A fact that seems to suggest that events,such as the furore over Brian Cowen’s Morning Ireland speech, and also perhaps PJ Sheehans activities in the Dáil, have overshadowed any attempts to concentrate on policy. </li></ul><ul><li>Given the fact that we are led to believe that a leadership coup may very well have happened last weekend, Fianna Fail backbenchers may be surprised to see that support for Fianna Fail remains stable in this poll. The party secures 24% of the vote – which is the same as was seen at the end of the last Dáil term in June, and is around where we have seen them polling for the past six months. In fact, RED C tracking polls have rarely seen support for Fianna Fail dip below this level, with the lowest ever seen in May last year when support fell to 21%. </li></ul><ul><li>This steady support for the party suggests that few of those still loyal to Fianna Fail have changed their view as a result of the Brian Cowen interview last week. Our own anecdotal evidence in fact suggests that there are many everyday voters who feel he has been perhaps too strongly attached over this issue, whatever they think of him as a leader.. </li></ul><ul><li>That isn’t to say that voters have changed their view on Brian Cowen, with only 19% claiming that they have confidence in him as Taoiseach. Worse still is the fact that Fianna Fail’s own likely voters are not happy with his performance, with only just over half (52%) of them suggesting that they have confidence in him. </li></ul><ul><li>So would Fianna Fail potentially fare better without him? Well over a quarter (29%) of voters do state that they would be more likely to vote for Fianna Fail if he were replaced. Most importantly though, for backbenchers worried about their seats, is the finding that this is the case for almost a third (31%) of the crucial undecided voters. There is also some evidence that voters lost to Fine Gael and Labour may be more likely to return to Fianna Fail should their be a change of leader, with 21% of each of these parties supporters suggesting this to be the case. </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>It is however interesting to note that when the same question was asked about replacing Enda Kenny as Fine Gael leader in February, 43% of voters claimed they would be more likely to vote Fine Gael if the leader was changed. It appears then that a change at the helm of Fianna Fail may help secure a 1% or 2% in the final vote, but it is unlikely to change the tide of opinion against the party. </li></ul><ul><li>While the media focus has been on Fianna Fail’s woes in recent weeks, there was an assumption that Fine Gael and Labour could only improve their position. Today's poll suggests otherwise, with Fine Gael securing 31% of the vote – down 2% since June – when they were recovering from their own leadership heave. </li></ul><ul><li>The adage that all media coverage is good media coverage may have come into play here – with Fine Gael’s own think-in a distant memory, but still it will perhaps be disappointing for the party to have fallen back to just 4% above the vote they achieved at the last election. </li></ul><ul><li>Labour also see a decline in 1 st preference vote share, securing 23% of the first preference vote in today’s poll, down 4% on the figures recorded in June. However it should be recalled that the June figures were the highest ever recorded by RED C for Labour, and that there was always likely to be some fall off after this poll. </li></ul><ul><li>This means that both opposition parties have lost support and Fianna Fail has remained stable, which is quite remarkable when you consider the expectations before the poll. </li></ul><ul><li>This is partly also because the smaller parties have also regained lost ground since June. Sinn Fein for example secures 10% of the first preference vote in the poll, a gain of 2% since June. The party has been consistently shifting between around 7% and 10% support over the past year. </li></ul><ul><li>Likewise the Greens also gain some share, securing 3% in this poll, up 1% since the start of the summer. This still leaves the party someway behind where they had been consistently polling for most of the year, suggesting they have some work to do to gain an upward momentum before an election kicks in. </li></ul><ul><li>Independent candidates also regain some share of the vote in today's poll, securing 10% of the first preference vote, and after a year of steady decline, this will be welcomed by candidates looking at a possible election in the not too distant future. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>The decline in support for the opposition parties may also have something to do with the fact that the coalition has still not yet persuaded voters that it is able and competent to successfully manage the current economy. </li></ul><ul><li>The close link between economic competence and the strength of voter support has been shown before. As such the fact hat only 30% of voters currently agree that they have confidence in Fine Gael and Labour to manage the public finances, must be a significant concern for those parties.   </li></ul><ul><li>When studied in more detail, this finding should be a particular concern for Labour, with 30% of those claiming they will vote for the Labour party at the next election, also suggesting that they don’t have confidence in the potential coalition to manage the public finances. If the party wants to be sure that those claiming they will vote for Labour, actually do so when the election arrives, this lack of confidence in the parties ability to manage the public finances will have to be addressed. </li></ul><ul><li>It will also be of interest to both the government and the opposition parties that undecided voters appear to be even less sure of the Labour and Fine Gael financial credentials, with 42% of those still undecided claiming they definitely don’t have confidence in them to manage the public finances. </li></ul><ul><li>The somewhat more fluid nature of current voter support , coupled with concerns about economic competence of all the parties, suggest that there may yet be several acts to be played out in the political landscape before the curtain falls at the next general election. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
  7. 7. Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other General election 2007 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 Sept 2010 If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
  8. 8. Dec ’ 05 If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 31% 24% 23% Independent Mar ’ 06 Jun ’ 06 Oct ’ 06 Jan ’ 07 Apr ’ 07 May ’ 07 GE 2007 Oct ’ 07 Jan ’ 08 Apr ’ 08 Jun ’ 08 10% Oct ’ 08 Jan ’ 09 3% Apr ’ 09 GE 2002 Sep ’ 09 Nov ’ 09 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mar ’10 2010 Sept ’ 10 9%
  9. 9. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 31% 24% 23% Independent GE 2007 Sep ’ 07 Oct ’ 07 Nov ’ 07 Jan ’ 08 Feb ’ 08 Mar ’ 08 Apr ’ 08 May ’ 08 Jun ’ 08 Sep ’ 08 10% Oct ’ 08 Nov ’ 08 Jan ’ 09 3% Feb ’ 09 Mar ’ 09 Apr ’ 09 May ’ 09 May ’ 09 Sep ’ 09 Sep ’ 09 Nov ’ 09 Oct ’ 09 Jan ’ 10 2008 2009 Feb ’ 10 Mar ’ 10 2010 Apr ’ 10 9% May ’ 10 Jun ’ 10 Sep ’ 10
  10. 10. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT Core figures 27 th June 2010 Excluding undecided Excluding undecided & Rounded 2007 Election Results % % % % Fine Gael 27 31.49 31 27 Fianna Fáil 20 24.20 24 42 Labour 19 22.69 23 10 Sinn Féin 8 9.76 10 7 Green Party 2 2.88 3 5 Independents/Others 8 8.94 9 6 Undecided 16
  11. 11. Confidence in Brian Cowen as Taoiseach ( Base: All adults 18+) Agree % AGREE TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Party Support at last GE Age Disagree 19% 64% Don’t know 17% ABC1 C2DE Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster Social Class Region
  12. 12. Proportion who agree or disagree that they would be more likely to vote Fianna Fail if the party changed leader Agree Disagree Don’t know TOTAL % FG % FF % Labour % 22 17 16 11 20 13 28 Party Preference % Ind. / Other % Un decided % 43% for Enda Kenny when asked about him in Feb ‘09
  13. 13. Confidence in Fine Gael/Labour to manage the public finances out of the current downturn ( Base: All adults 18+) Agree strongly Agree slightly Disagree slightly Disagree strongly Don’t know Oct 2009 Feb 2010 Sept 2010 30% 34% 27%
  14. 14. Proportion who agree or disagree that they want a general election now ( Base: All adults 18+) Don’t know Dis agree Agree % Agree TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45+54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Party Preference Age

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