Global energy demand is projected to double within 50 years, driven largely by growth in Asia. Current energy supplies from fossil fuels will be unable to meet this growing demand, resulting in a significant energy gap by 2040. However, the sun delivers over 5,000 times more energy to the Earth than what is needed globally. Transitioning to renewable energy technologies and increasing annual investment in renewables can help meet future energy demand in a sustainable way while avoiding peak oil and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Trebling annual renewable energy investment and sustaining this rate of growth over the next 30 years could supply energy needs with renewables by 2060.

1. A global perspective
on Energy Security
David Brockington
Speaking on behalf of
The Centre of Alternative Technology

2. Global demand will double in 50 years
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Rest of Asia China
Africa Middle East
Eurasia C & South America
North America Europe
In 1980 50% consumed
by Europe and America
In 2060 50%
consumed by Asia
TWh per year

3. Energy Supply will not match Global demand
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
The Energy Gap Renewable Energy
Nuclear Biomass, Biofuel, Waste
Coal Gas
Oil
TWh per year

4. The sun delivers 5,000 times Global demand
52 89
Earth
36
Atmosphere
26
33
10 111 7 35 10 174 PW
1 PW =
1000TWh
http://nssdc.gsfc.nas
a.gov/planetary/facts
heet/earthfact.html
Solar insolation energy density varies 1,320W/m2 to 1,420W/m2
Solar insolation 174,390 TW or 1,500,000,000 TWh a year

5. Supplying Demand with Alternative Technology
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Ground heat Renewable Energy
Nuclear Biomass Biofuel Waste
Coal Gas
Oil
TWh per year

6. When will Peak Oil occur ?
0.000
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Oil Supply Hubbert MHV Forecast Demand
TWh per year
Demand - Supply
30,000 TWh gap
in 2040

7. Oil Demand not affected by Oil Price
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
$ / Barrel Brent crude Oil price
In the 10 year period 2002 - 2012 Oil price increased 6 fold
Demand only stopped growing after 5 years then only reduced by 5%

8. Treble annual investment in Renewable Energy
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Pre-emptive Action Free Market response Current Forecast
TWh per year
Start now & sustain rate of growth for the next 30 years
Stop using fossil fuels to generate electricity by 2030
Invest in biogas & synthetic gas to balance supply & demand