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Solar Cowichan 
Guy Dauncey, October 2014 
EJ Young
Solar energy travels at the speed of light 
1,000 million kilometres an hour
Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds
More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour 
than humans use in a year.
200 Million Years ago…..
200 Million Years ago…..
200 Million Years ago….. 
Stored solar energy = future fossil fuels
As we burn the fossil fuels… 
GGuuyy DDaauunncceeyy 22000077 
wwwwww..eeaarrtthhffuuttuurree..ccoomm
Carbon dioxide, 
like the other greenhouse 
gases, traps 
HEAT 
in the troposphere
Burning fossil fuels 
and destroying Earth’s forests 
Is causing THIS
The current increase in global warming is 
"...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima 
atomic bombs per day, 365 days p...
The last time the world was 
3°C warmer, during the Pliocene, 
the sea level was up to 
25 metres 
higher. 
We are current...
If global warming exceeds 
1.6°C 
up to 
31% 
of Earth’s species 
will be committed to 
extinction, 
having nowhere to go ...
Which path 
will you 
take? 
Guy Dauncey 2013 
www.earthfuture.com
100% 
RENEWABLE 
ENERGY 
NOW
For 30,000 years, we harvested 
the Sun’s energy through firewood
For 300 years, we have been harvesting 
it through fossil fuels
It was fossil fuels 
that launched the Industrial Age, 
and the modern world.
It is solar energy 
expressed through fossil fuels 
that has made advanced engineering, 
solar PV and electric vehicles po...
We don’t need to vilify fossil fuels. 
We can praise them, 
and then say 
“Enough!”
Two Possible 
Futures 
One YES 
One NO
The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the 
LAUNCH RAMP 
for the Solar Age 
30,000 years 
Firewood 
300 years 
Fossil Fuels 
Sci...
The Age of 
Firewood 
The Age of 
Fossil Fuels 
The Solar Age
The Sun will not begin to turn 
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. 
A billion years 
That’s 100,000 periods o...
The Sun will not begin to turn 
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. 
A billion years 
And with every passing y...
Vauban, Freiburg, Germany
Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan
Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany
Kurilpa Bridge, Australia
Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK
Solar railway 
Paris to Amsterdam 
16,000 panels 
3.4 kilometres 
3,300 MWh a year
Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2014
Price of Solar PV 
per Watt 
1977: $77 
1997: $7 
2013: $0.7 
A thousandfold fall 
in the price of solar PV 
since 1977
100 GW 
in 2012 
Solar PV 7000% increase 
since 2000 
137 GW 
in 2013
Mass production = falling prices
Average BC home electricity per year 
Home, baseboard heat: 20,000 kWh 
Home, gas heat: 11,000 kWh 
LED lights, super effi...
The higher the price of electricity 
and the sunnier the land, 
the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives
The higher the price of electricity 
and the sunnier the land, 
the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives
Guy Dauncey 2013 
www.earthfuture.c 
om 
2014: 4 kW PV System 
$3.50 to $4 per watt 
$14-16,000 + tax 
4,400 kWh year
Why there will never be a Solar Feed-in Tariff 
in British Columbia 
BC Hydro generation 50,000 GWh a year 
Zero-carbon (h...
Solar Economics in BC, 2014 
4 kW @ $4 per watt 
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 
3% finance 
Cost per watt $4 
4...
Solar Economics in BC, 2014 
4 kW @ $4 per watt 
Price @ 0% capital cost: 12.72 cents kwh 
Price @ 3% capital cost: 21.68 ...
Solar Economics in BC, 2014 
10 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt 
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 
3% finance 
Cost per...
Solar Economics in BC, 2014 
10 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt 
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 
5% finance 
Cost per...
Solar Economics in BC, 2014 
10 kW @ $3 per watt 
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 
5% finance 
Price @ 3% capital...
2012 
$5/watt 
2012 
$2.75/watt
What does solar PV cost? 
Price per installed watt 
BC market price: $4.00
What does solar PV cost? 
Price per installed watt 
BC market price: $4.00 
Florida market price: $3.33
What does solar PV cost? 
Price per installed watt 
BC market price: $4.00 
Florida market price: $3.33 
BC Group of 5 hou...
What does solar PV cost? 
Price per installed watt 
BC market price: $4.00 
Florida market price: $3.33 
BC Group of 5 hou...
What does solar PV cost? 
Price per installed watt 
BC market price: $4.00 
Florida market price: $3.33 
BC Group of 5 hou...
What does solar PV cost? 
Price per installed watt 
BC market price: $4.00 
Florida market price: $3.33 
BC Group of 5 hou...
What does solar PV cost? 
Price per installed watt 
BC market price: $4.00 
Florida market price: $3.33 
BC Group of 5 hou...
What does solar PV cost? 
Price per installed watt 
BC market price: $4.00 
Florida market price: $3.33 
BC Group of 5 hou...
What does solar PV cost? 
Price per installed watt 
BC market price: $4.00 
Florida market price: $3.33 
BC Group of 5 hou...
4 kw Solar Prices in Australia, 2012-2014
Solar Economics in BC, 2014 
4 kW @ $2.60 per watt 
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 
3% finance 
Cost per watt $2...
Solar Economics in BC, 2014 
4 kW @ $2.60 per watt 
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 
5% finance 
Cost per watt $2...
Solar Economics in BC, 2014 
4 kW @ $2.60 per watt 
12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 
30 year power: 132,000 kwh 
...
“Our research suggests that as they become 
cheaper, the overall (solar) costs to 
consumers are poised to fall to 
$2.30 ...
The Solar 
Tsunami
The unresolved solar problem: power storage 
Tesla 
Battery Traditional 
Battery 
Elon Musk is Chairman and largest shareh...
Long term self-financing 
Value for future purchasers 
Reduced transmission losses 
Resiliency against power outages, eart...
$100 spent on renewable energy 
may circulate and be spent 
10 times before it leaves the country, 
creating demand and jo...
By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW 
could be losing up to $1,000 a year
Every commercial roof could look like this, 
and could be earning up to $10,000 a year
BC’s Solar Future 
5 million residents = 2 million residences 
1/2 million roofs x 4 kw = 2,200 gigawatt-hours a year 
+ C...
Dan Kammen & 
Ditlev Engel 
Copenhagen 
Climate Council 
2009
Potential Direct Solar Jobs in BC 
5,000 GWh x 0.91 = 4,500 jobs
Thin Film Solar PV
Thin film solar
Transparent 
solar 
windows
Impact of snow’s high albedo on solar PV performance 
How much increased yield?
100% increased PV yield 
due to solar reflection off the snow 
December 2010 
Ann & Gord Baird’s Eco-Sense house, Victoria...
9% solar charging capacity from the car’s roof
Source: Hydro Quebec
Average EV uses 18 kWh per 100 km 
10,000 km = 1,800 kWh a year 
1.75 kW solar = 1,925 kWh a year
2014……………… 
1.75 kW = $7,000 
5% 25 year mortgage = $40 a month 
10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
……….2020 
1.75 kW = $2,800 
3% 25 year mortgage = $16 a month
Solar Charging
Egypt: 7 million vehicles 
= 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year
7 million ELECTRIC vehicles 
If each travels 10,000 km a year 
Average 20 kwh per 100 km 
= 14,000 GWh a year
Solar in the Middle East 
85 sq km = 14,000 GWh/year
Egypt = 1 million sq km
Egypt = 1 million sq km
Solar PV for 
7 million vehicles 
= 85 sq km 
Egypt = 1 million sq km
Solar PV for . 
7 million vehicles 
= 85 sq km 
Egypt = 1 million sq km
Guy Dauncey 2013 
www.earthfuture.com
Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia 
www.bcsea.org 
BCSEA 2013 
www.bcsea.org
Could 
B.C. 
Become 
a 100% 
Renewable 
Energy Region? 
GUY DAUNCEY 
October 2014 
University of Victoria
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey 
Guy Dauncey 2013 
www.earthfuture.c 
om
Guy Dauncey 2013 
www.earthfuture.c 
om
Guy Dauncey 2013 
www.earthfuture.c 
om
THE CLIMATE CRISIS… 
Think Globally, 
VOTE 
LOCALLY 
On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections 
BRING IT HOME
November 15th 
Five Commitments 
1. Sustainable Transportation 
2. Sustainable Planning & 
Development 
3. Greenest Buildi...
If you want to make a difference, 
now would be a great time to do so.
Guy Dauncey 
www.earthfuture.com 
Guy Dauncey 2013 
www.earthfuture.com
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Solar Cowichan

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A Presentation by Guy Dauncey to the Cowichan Solar Workshop, October 25, 2014

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Solar Cowichan

  1. 1. Solar Cowichan Guy Dauncey, October 2014 EJ Young
  2. 2. Solar energy travels at the speed of light 1,000 million kilometres an hour
  3. 3. Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds
  4. 4. More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.
  5. 5. 200 Million Years ago…..
  6. 6. 200 Million Years ago…..
  7. 7. 200 Million Years ago….. Stored solar energy = future fossil fuels
  8. 8. As we burn the fossil fuels… GGuuyy DDaauunncceeyy 22000077 wwwwww..eeaarrtthhffuuttuurree..ccoomm
  9. 9. Carbon dioxide, like the other greenhouse gases, traps HEAT in the troposphere
  10. 10. Burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s forests Is causing THIS
  11. 11. The current increase in global warming is "...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.” - James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
  12. 12. The last time the world was 3°C warmer, during the Pliocene, the sea level was up to 25 metres higher. We are currently on track for 4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer
  13. 13. If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to 31% of Earth’s species will be committed to extinction, having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat
  14. 14. Which path will you take? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  15. 15. 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY NOW
  16. 16. For 30,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood
  17. 17. For 300 years, we have been harvesting it through fossil fuels
  18. 18. It was fossil fuels that launched the Industrial Age, and the modern world.
  19. 19. It is solar energy expressed through fossil fuels that has made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.
  20. 20. We don’t need to vilify fossil fuels. We can praise them, and then say “Enough!”
  21. 21. Two Possible Futures One YES One NO
  22. 22. The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the LAUNCH RAMP for the Solar Age 30,000 years Firewood 300 years Fossil Fuels Science Engineering Enlightenment Two billion years Solar Energy
  23. 23. The Age of Firewood The Age of Fossil Fuels The Solar Age
  24. 24. The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. A billion years That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com
  25. 25. The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. A billion years And with every passing year, solar technology will improve Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com and fall in price.
  26. 26. Vauban, Freiburg, Germany
  27. 27. Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan
  28. 28. Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany
  29. 29. Kurilpa Bridge, Australia
  30. 30. Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK
  31. 31. Solar railway Paris to Amsterdam 16,000 panels 3.4 kilometres 3,300 MWh a year
  32. 32. Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2014
  33. 33. Price of Solar PV per Watt 1977: $77 1997: $7 2013: $0.7 A thousandfold fall in the price of solar PV since 1977
  34. 34. 100 GW in 2012 Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000 137 GW in 2013
  35. 35. Mass production = falling prices
  36. 36. Average BC home electricity per year Home, baseboard heat: 20,000 kWh Home, gas heat: 11,000 kWh LED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh 4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c om
  37. 37. The higher the price of electricity and the sunnier the land, the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives
  38. 38. The higher the price of electricity and the sunnier the land, the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives
  39. 39. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c om 2014: 4 kW PV System $3.50 to $4 per watt $14-16,000 + tax 4,400 kWh year
  40. 40. Why there will never be a Solar Feed-in Tariff in British Columbia BC Hydro generation 50,000 GWh a year Zero-carbon (hydro & wind) 95% Potential new wind, river 20,000 GWh Price of run-of-river energy 7-15 cents kWh Price of wind energy 10-12 cents kWh Price of solar PV (2014) 25 cents kWh Export price for surplus power 2-3 cents kWh
  41. 41. Solar Economics in BC, 2014 4 kW @ $4 per watt 12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 3% finance Cost per watt $4 4 kW + tax $16,800 3% finance $28,620 kWh per year 4,400 30-year savings $27,112
  42. 42. Solar Economics in BC, 2014 4 kW @ $4 per watt Price @ 0% capital cost: 12.72 cents kwh Price @ 3% capital cost: 21.68 cents kwh Price @ 5% capital cost: 26.63 cents kwh
  43. 43. Solar Economics in BC, 2014 10 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt 12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 3% finance Cost per watt $3 10 kW $30,000 3% finance $45,420 kWh per year 11,000 30-year savings $68,000 Result +$22,500
  44. 44. Solar Economics in BC, 2014 10 kW flat roof @ $3 per watt 12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 5% finance Cost per watt $3 10 kW $30,000 5% finance $57,630 kWh per year 11,000 30-year savings $68,000 Result +$10,500
  45. 45. Solar Economics in BC, 2014 10 kW @ $3 per watt 12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 5% finance Price @ 3% capital cost: 13.7 cents kwh Price @ 5% capital cost: 17.4 cents kwh
  46. 46. 2012 $5/watt 2012 $2.75/watt
  47. 47. What does solar PV cost? Price per installed watt BC market price: $4.00
  48. 48. What does solar PV cost? Price per installed watt BC market price: $4.00 Florida market price: $3.33
  49. 49. What does solar PV cost? Price per installed watt BC market price: $4.00 Florida market price: $3.33 BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50
  50. 50. What does solar PV cost? Price per installed watt BC market price: $4.00 Florida market price: $3.33 BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50 Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15
  51. 51. What does solar PV cost? Price per installed watt BC market price: $4.00 Florida market price: $3.33 BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50 Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15 BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00
  52. 52. What does solar PV cost? Price per installed watt BC market price: $4.00 Florida market price: $3.33 BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50 Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15 BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00 Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60
  53. 53. What does solar PV cost? Price per installed watt BC market price: $4.00 Florida market price: $3.33 BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50 Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15 BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00 Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60 Germany, market price: $2.10
  54. 54. What does solar PV cost? Price per installed watt BC market price: $4.00 Florida market price: $3.33 BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50 Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15 BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00 Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60 Germany, market price: $2.10 Australia, Residential: $1.85
  55. 55. What does solar PV cost? Price per installed watt BC market price: $4.00 Florida market price: $3.33 BC Group of 5 houses: $3.50 Cowichan bulk-buy: $3.15 BC 10 kw flat roof: $3.00 Gabriola non-profit 10 kw: $2.60 Germany, market price: $2.10 Australia, Residential: $1.80 Australia, Utility-scale : $1.50
  56. 56. 4 kw Solar Prices in Australia, 2012-2014
  57. 57. Solar Economics in BC, 2014 4 kW @ $2.60 per watt 12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 3% finance Cost per watt $2.60 4 kW + tax $11,000 3% finance $16,650 kWh per year 4,400 30-year savings $27,112 Result +$10,462
  58. 58. Solar Economics in BC, 2014 4 kW @ $2.60 per watt 12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 5% finance Cost per watt $2.60 4 kW + tax $11,000 5% finance $21,150 kWh per year 4,400 30-year savings $27,112 Result +$6,000
  59. 59. Solar Economics in BC, 2014 4 kW @ $2.60 per watt 12 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase 30 year power: 132,000 kwh 0% finance $11,000 3% finance $16,650 5% finance $21,150 Price @ 0% capital cost: 8.3 cents kwh Price @ 3% capital cost: 12.6 cents kwh Price @ 5% capital cost: 16.0 cents kwh
  60. 60. “Our research suggests that as they become cheaper, the overall (solar) costs to consumers are poised to fall to $2.30 (a watt) by 2015 and to $1.60 by 2020.” The disruptive potential of solar power McKinsey, April 2014
  61. 61. The Solar Tsunami
  62. 62. The unresolved solar problem: power storage Tesla Battery Traditional Battery Elon Musk is Chairman and largest shareholder in SolarCity And CEO of Tesla… They are collaborating on industrial grade batteries
  63. 63. Long term self-financing Value for future purchasers Reduced transmission losses Resiliency against power outages, earthquakes Creates more jobs per MWh than other kinds of energy Positive climate response when electricity is gas or coal
  64. 64. $100 spent on renewable energy may circulate and be spent 10 times before it leaves the country, creating demand and jobs worth $1,000 in value. $100 spent on imported oil $70 leaves the country $22 goes to the oil company $3 to the credit card company, $8 to the gas station owner.
  65. 65. By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW could be losing up to $1,000 a year
  66. 66. Every commercial roof could look like this, and could be earning up to $10,000 a year
  67. 67. BC’s Solar Future 5 million residents = 2 million residences 1/2 million roofs x 4 kw = 2,200 gigawatt-hours a year + Commercial and Utility PV = 3-5,000 Gwh a year Future demand: 70,000 GWh Solar PV = 4-7% of BC’s future summer demand
  68. 68. Dan Kammen & Ditlev Engel Copenhagen Climate Council 2009
  69. 69. Potential Direct Solar Jobs in BC 5,000 GWh x 0.91 = 4,500 jobs
  70. 70. Thin Film Solar PV
  71. 71. Thin film solar
  72. 72. Transparent solar windows
  73. 73. Impact of snow’s high albedo on solar PV performance How much increased yield?
  74. 74. 100% increased PV yield due to solar reflection off the snow December 2010 Ann & Gord Baird’s Eco-Sense house, Victoria, BC www.eco-sense.ca
  75. 75. 9% solar charging capacity from the car’s roof
  76. 76. Source: Hydro Quebec
  77. 77. Average EV uses 18 kWh per 100 km 10,000 km = 1,800 kWh a year 1.75 kW solar = 1,925 kWh a year
  78. 78. 2014……………… 1.75 kW = $7,000 5% 25 year mortgage = $40 a month 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
  79. 79. ……….2020 1.75 kW = $2,800 3% 25 year mortgage = $16 a month
  80. 80. Solar Charging
  81. 81. Egypt: 7 million vehicles = 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year
  82. 82. 7 million ELECTRIC vehicles If each travels 10,000 km a year Average 20 kwh per 100 km = 14,000 GWh a year
  83. 83. Solar in the Middle East 85 sq km = 14,000 GWh/year
  84. 84. Egypt = 1 million sq km
  85. 85. Egypt = 1 million sq km
  86. 86. Solar PV for 7 million vehicles = 85 sq km Egypt = 1 million sq km
  87. 87. Solar PV for . 7 million vehicles = 85 sq km Egypt = 1 million sq km
  88. 88. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  89. 89. Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia www.bcsea.org BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org
  90. 90. Could B.C. Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region? GUY DAUNCEY October 2014 University of Victoria
  91. 91. www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c om
  92. 92. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c om
  93. 93. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c om
  94. 94. THE CLIMATE CRISIS… Think Globally, VOTE LOCALLY On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections BRING IT HOME
  95. 95. November 15th Five Commitments 1. Sustainable Transportation 2. Sustainable Planning & Development 3. Greenest Buildings 4. Sustainable Local Economy 5. Healthy Food, Healthy Nature
  96. 96. If you want to make a difference, now would be a great time to do so.
  97. 97. Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

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