David Sandalow - Columbia University.
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El jueves 15 de febrero de 2018 se realizó una conferencia en la Fundación Ramón Areces sobre la nueva geopolítica de la energía, impartida por David Shandalow, es Inaugural Fellow en el Global Energy Policy Center y co-director del Energy and Environment Concentration en la School of International and Public Affairs de la Universidad de Columbia University.
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David Sandalow - Columbia University.
- 1. David Sandalow February 15, 2018 Economics for Energy Annual Lecture
- 2. 2 View of Pudong, Shanghai (1983) 上海浦东 （1983年）
- 3. View of Pudong, Shanghai 上海浦东
- 5. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 5
- 6. 6 AUGUST 8, 2008 – 8:08pm SUMMER OLYMPICS 2008 OPENING CEREMONY
- 7. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7
- 8. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 8
- 9. 9
- 10. 10
- 11. 11 -- Cartelization of key minerals -- Distributed generation/energy security -- Transnational electric grids/energy security -- Reduced poverty -- Reduced oil and gas revenues
- 12. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 2. Shale Revolution 12
- 14. 14
- 15. Oil Production Growth (thousand barrels per day) 15 Source: BP Statistical Review, EIA 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 US Apr 2010 - Apr 2015 Saudi Arabia 1969 - 1974 Russia* 1999 - 2004 Iran 1968 - 1973 Soviet Union 1972 - 1977 Libya 1965 - 1970 Iraq* 1994 - 1999 North Sea 1991 - 1996 Kuwait* 1991 - 1996 Mexico 1977 - 1982 Crude Oil NGLs * Recovery of previously lost production, not organic production growth in Russia, Iraq and Kuwait
- 16. US Oil Imports (percent of total consumption) 16 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 17. US Natural Gas Production 2000-2016 17 US Dry Gas Production Bcf/day Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2016 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Other Shale gas
- 18. US Shale Gas Resource Is Huge 18 US Natural Gas Supply Curve, Henry Hub Breakeven Price Trillion cubic feet, $ per MMBtu Source: IHS -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 830 Tcf at < $3 per MMBtu 1,400+ Tcf at < $4 per MMBtu ~30 years of current consumption ~50 years of current consumption
- 19. US LNG Export Capacity Growing 19 US LNG Export Capacity Under Construction, Commissioning, and in Operation Bcf per day 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan- 16 Jul- 16 Jan- 17 Jul- 17 Jan- 18 Jul- 18 Jan- 19 Jul- 19 Jan- 20 Jul- 20 Sabine Pass Cove Point Cameron Freeport Corpus Christi Elba Island Source: Company disclosures
- 20. 20 A Changing Global Gas Order Source: IEA WEO 2017 39% 59% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2016 2040 LNG Pipeline Global Gas Trade by Mode Billion cubic meters
- 21. European Gas Imports Projected to Grow 21 Source: IEA WEO 2017
- 22. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 2. Shale Revolution 3. Rise of China 22
- 23. 23 View of Pudong, Shanghai (1983) 上海浦东 （1983年）
- 24. View of Pudong, Shanghai 上海浦东
- 28. China GDP 1980-2015 Source: World Bank Group 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 GDP (trillion $)
- 29. China – Percent of Population Living on Less Than $1.25 Per Day 1980-2013 84.3 69.4 54 60.7 54.9 37.4 36 28.1 15.8 12.3 6.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: World Bank Group
- 31. Beijing Marathon October 2014 北京马拉松，2014年10月
- 32. 32
- 33. Chinese Coal Consumption 1990-2014 - million short tons Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
- 34. CO2 Emissions (1980-2016) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 China US MilliontonnesCO2
- 35. Oil Imports 35
- 36. Belt and Road Initiative 36
- 37. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 2. Shale Revolution 3. Rise of China 4. Attack on Globalization 37
- 39. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 2. Shale Revolution 3. Rise of China 4. Attack on Globalization 5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement 39
- 40. 40
- 41. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 2. Shale Revolution 3. Rise of China 4. Attack on Globalization 5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement 6. Melting Arctic 41
- 42. 42
- 43. 43
- 44. 44
- 45. 45
- 46. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 2. Shale Revolution 3. Rise of China 4. Attack on Globalization 5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement 6. Melting Arctic 7. Coal – Plateau or Long Decline? 46
- 47. 47
- 48. US Power Generation by Fuel 1950-2016 48 Source: Figure 11, EIA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Renewables Nuclear Percent of Total
- 49. U.S. Coal Mining Employment 1900-2015 49 Source: Figure 2, Mine Safety and Health Administration, includes office workers starting in 1973 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Thousand Miners
- 50. 50
- 51. 51 MIAMI
- 52. 52 MIAMI
- 53. 53
- 54. 54
- 55. 55
- 56. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 2. Shale Revolution 3. Rise of China 4. Attack on Globalization 5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement 6. Melting Arctic 7. Coal – Plateau or Long Decline? 8. Transportation Revolution 56
- 57. TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION • Ride Sharing • Electric Vehicles • Autonomy
- 58. 58
- 59. 59
- 60. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 2. Shale Revolution 3. Rise of China 4. Attack on Globalization 5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement 6. Melting Arctic 7. Coal – Plateau or Long Decline? 8. Transportation Revolution 60
- 61. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS -- EIGHT TRENDS 1. Renewable Energy Revolution 2. Shale Revolution ----- 3. Rise of China 4. Attack on Globalization 5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement 6. Melting Arctic --- 7. Coal – Plateau or Long Decline? 8. Transportation Revolution 61
- 62. 62 View of Pudong, Shanghai (1983) 上海浦东 （1983年）
- 63. View of Pudong, Shanghai 上海浦东
Editor's Notes
- The one country where the golden age has truly happened is the US Stunning turnaround in US gas position
- The US resource base is huge – IHS estimates that 1,400 Tcf (50+ years of current consumption) is available at below $4 HH breakeven, and more 800 Tcf (30+ years of current consumption) is available at $3 HH breakeven. Every reason to expect supply growth to continue. The supply curve is very flat Bottom line: lots of cheap gas in North America
- These are the projects already under way.
- Almost 90% of additional gas trade in the period to 2040 is in the form of LNG