CSIRO Principal Scientist Dr Stefan Hajkowicz's presents at the 2014 National Landcare Conference, looking at global trends and its impact on the next 25 years of sustainable agriculture.

1. Global Megatrends
The 2014 Update
Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist
This presentation contains Microsoft Clipart Images which may be subject to copyright.

2. Different Types of Futures
Possible
Now Probable
Source: Voros (2003) adapted this diagram from Hancock and Bezold (1994) in the Healthcare Forum
Journal
Plausible
The Future

3. More Than Forecasting
Difference Between Actual and Forecast Oil Prices (US Govt Dept of Energy)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Imported Crude Oil Price (Nominal
USD per Barrel)
Actual Oil Price
Forecast Oil Price
Source: United States Government, Department of Energy

4. Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 4
More from less
The opportunities and risks stemming
from resource scarcity and supply-demand
imbalances
Going, going, … gone?
A window of opportunity to protect
habitats, biodiversity and the global
climate
The silk highway
The growth of emerging economies,
globalisation, urbanisation and
human mobility
Great expectations
The all important and personalised
experience-factor in a world with
Forever young
An ageing population, longer
lifespans, rising healthcare
expenditure and retirement
pressures
limitless choice
Digital immersion
Life deeper in the information era
with technology, connectivity,
data volumes and digital natives
on the rise
Megatrends
The 2014 Revision

5. Why a Venn Diagram?
Each area of overlap tells a unique story about the future
Ice Cream
Children Car Trip
Use activity
books and
games
Take
normal
care
Effective
strategy not
yet identified
by humankind
Use
serviettes
Does the strategy perform in
most/all areas of overlap?

6. Innovation, Productivity and Prosperity
We need new & bigger ideas to refuel the economy
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
Read “The Great Stagnation – How America
Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern
History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel
Better“ by Tyler Cowen
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Multifactor Productivity
We do need to
head back in this
direction soonish
Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 5204.0 Australian System of National Accounts

7. 1. More From Less
It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put
up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth.
I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.
- Neil Armstrong

8. Data source: United Nations, Food and Agriculture Organization
More From Less
Food demand, supply and prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FAO Food Price Index

9. More From Less
Food Prices, Food Security and Stability
IMAGE AND DATA SOURCE: Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam (2011) The Food Crises and
Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. Physics and Society.

10. More From Less
World Energy Demand, Headline Statistics Now to 2035
Global energy demand  one-third.
Fossil fuel share  from 82% to 76%.
Low carbon sources (renewables, nuclear...) are 40% of growth
Over 50% of net-increase in electricity generation from renewables
Growth led by China this decade but shifts to India, Southeast Asia and Middle
East post 2020.
Biofuel use triples from 1.3 million barrels/day to 4.1 million barrels/day
Data source: International Energy Agency, 2013

11. More From Less
Declining Energy Intensity in Australia, All Industries
2,550
2,500
2,450
2,400
2,350
2,300
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Gigajoules per $ millions Industry
Value Add
More money from less energy due to
technology innovation & growth in services.
Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Energy Account
The service sector of the economy needs
only one-tenth of the energy used by other
sectors to make $1 million.

12. More From Less
Declining Gold Ore Grade – We’ve dug up all the good stuff
50
40
30
20
10
1835 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Gold Ore Grade (g/t Au)
Data Source: United Nations Environment Program 2011, Metal Recycling Report

13. More From Less
Mining above the ground
One tonne of ore body
yields 1-5 grams of gold
One tonne of old
computer circuits yields
250 grams of gold.
Data Source: CSIRO News, Anna Littleboy, March 28 2014. How to create wealth from waste. Images CSIRO.

14. More From Less
Extent of Mineral Resources in Emerging Economies
Data Source: United States Geological Survey (2012)

15. More From Less
Transition to knowledge exports – Pittsburgh’s story from selling ingots to
selling ideas
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Share of Steel Making Capacity
Share of Steel Technology Firms
Chicago Pittsburgh Detroit Cleveland
Share of US Total in 2003 (percent)
Source: Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society; Treado (2009)

16. 2. Going, Going
… Gone?

17. Going, Going… Gone?
The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will
almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the
activities of a single species.
Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.

18. Going, Going … Gone?
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

19. Going, Going … Gone?
The Red List
Red List Extinction
Risk Index
1 = No concern
0 = Extinct
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3,
Secretariat on the Convention on Biological
Diversity, 2010
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 19

20. Going, Going… Gone?
Arctic Sea Ice
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

21. Going, Going, … Gone?
Rising Temperatures
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Maximum Temperature, Degrees Celsius
Data source: Bureau of Meteorology
2030 2050
Difference from
average maximum

22. Going, Going, … Gone?
The Great Barrier Reef
Coral area is shrinking by 0.5% per year.
Only 50% of original coral area remains today.
Culprits are tropical cyclones (48%), crown of thorns starfish (42%),
coral bleaching (10%) plus other factors.
Without these 3 things it would be growing by 2.85% per year.
Image Source: Microsoft Clipart, Data Source: De’ath, G, KE Fabricius, H Sweatman, and M Puotinen, 2012. The 27–year decline of coral
cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

23. Going, Going ... Gone? Staying Put 
Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

24. 3. The Silk Highway

25. The Silk Highway
A Shifting World Economy
Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

26. The Silk Highway
A Recent Phenomenon - The Population Explosion
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 26
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Human Population (Billions)
-10000 -9000 -8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
Date from -10,000 (BC) to 2100 (AD)
The year 2100
Today
The year
1900
6.0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Billions of People
This Century ...
The vast bulk of new arrivals are
in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Europe shrinks after 2050.
US Govt
census.gov

27. Income Growth
It’s not just more people, it’s more people with greater buying power
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Average Income, World (US Dollars Per Capita, Current Prices)
Source: World Bank Indicators

28. The Silk Highway
Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years
Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 28
Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

29. Change in China
From the early 1990s to the
late 2000s China changed it’s
share of the world’s ...
Champagne imports from 0.1% to 0.3%
Gross Domestic Product from 3.5% to
11.4%
Steel production from 12.4% to 38.8%
Poor people living on less than US$1.25
per day from 37.6% to 15.1%
Trademarks (held by residents) from
5.9% to 31.7%
Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

30. The Silk Highway
An Economy in Transition
Source: The Reserve Bank of Australia

31. The Silk Highway
Expenditure on Research and Development in China
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USD Billions
Source: OECD

32. The Silk Highway
Will India pick up the slack?
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Urban Annual Growth Rate (%)
India China
Source: United Nations Urbanisation Prospects

33. The Silk Highway
Regional Activity - Global Jet Travel
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
North America China Europe Europe – North
America
Southeast Asia South America
Revenue Passenger Kilometres (Billions)
2012 2032
Data Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook

34. The silk Highway
The Offshoring Trend
Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM

35. The silk Highway
The Offshoring Trend
In Australia they
cost $10,000 to
$20,000 per month

36. The Silk Highway
Emerging Food Markets, can’t sell garlic to China but can sell fish, tropical fruit ...
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000
US Dollars, Millions
Export Value
Import Value
Trade Balance (exports less imports)
Data source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation

37. 4. Forever Young
As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands,
one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.
- Audrey Hepburn

38. Forever Young
The Ageing Population – Australia
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old
It will be 25% by 2050

39. Forever Young
The Ageing Population in Japan
By 2050
Japan’s
population will
be 40% over
70 years old

40. Forever Young
Retirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement
Source: Rice Warner

41. Forever Young
The Rise of Chronic Illness
In 2002 59% of
deaths
worldwide were
from non-communicable
illness.
It will be 69% in
2030.
Source: Mathers and Loncar, 2006.

42. Forever Young
Diabetes and Overweight Projections
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
USA England
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Proportion of total population
overweight
Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Spain
Austria
France
Australia
Canada
Korea
Italy

43. Forever Young
Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Toronto, Canada
Brisbane,
Australia
Melbourne,
Australia
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Data Source: World Masters Association
Aalborg, Aarhus &
Herning Denmark
Portland,
Oregon,
USA
Edmonton,
Canada
Sydney,
Australia
Number of Competitors

44. Forever Young
Rising Healthcare Expenditure
Today we spend 20 percent of all
government taxes in Australia on
Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship
healthcare.
By the year 2043 it will be 40 percent.

45. Forever Young
Rising Healthcare Expenditure
9.3
5.2
4.7
3.5
1.6
22.6
12.1
21.5
10.1
8.6
25
20
15
10
5
0
Cardiovascular Mental Neurological Cancer Diabetes
Expenditure Per Year (A$ Billions)
2002–03 2032–33
Source: ACE–Prevention: Deakin University and University of Queensland.

46. Forever Young
Longer Lifespans
Average today is currently 79.9 years for a boy and 84.3 years for a girl. Will
exceed 100 years later this century at current linear trend.
Regenerative
Medicine
Genetic
Diagnostics
Organ Printing
Diabetes Type II
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

47. 5. Digital Immersion

48. The number of transistors that can be
placed on an integrated circuit, at the same
cost, doubles every 1.5 years.
Data source: Moore’s Law, Moore (1965) Electronica, Vol 38
Image source: Microsoft clipart
Digital Immersion
Moore’s Law

49. Digital Immersion
The falling cost of sequencing a human genome
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
USD Millions
20
15
10
5
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Log Scale - USD Millioms
Data Source: National Human Genome Research Institute, Sequencing Costs

50. Digital Immersion
Ray Kurzweil and The Second Half of the Chessboard
Creative Commons Photo by Michael Lutch. - Photo by
Michael Lutch. Courtesy of Kurzweil Technologies,
Incorporated.

51. Digital Immersion
Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning The Story of IBM’s
Computer Watson on Jeopardy
Clue (category explorers): On hearing of the
discovery of George Mallory’s body, he told reporters
he still thinks he was first.
Answer: Who is “Sir Edmund Hillary”
Source: D.A. Ferrucci - IBM Journal of Research and Development

52. Digital Immersion
Watson on Jeopardy
Ken Jennings: “I for one welcome our new computer overlords”
Source: D.A. Ferrucci - IBM Journal of Research and Development

53. Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 53
Automation Outside
the Factory
Image Source:
Wikipedia Commons
500,000 kms accident free
Laws in Nevada, Florida,
California, and Michigan

54. Digital Immersion
Emergent Properties of Networks
The number of devices
connected to the Internet
exceeded the number of
people on Earth in 2010.
By 2020, this ratio is
predicted to increase to
almost 7:1.
Source: Wikipedia Commons (Opte Project) and Evans, D., The Internet of Things: How the Next
Evolution of the Internet is Changing Everything, 2011, CISCO.

55. From 6 to 3 Degrees of Separation
The New World of Connectivity
Image source: Microsoft Clipart

56. Every day 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are created; 90% of the data
available today was created in the last two years (IBM).
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 56

57. Mobile Phones in Kerala, India between 1997 - 2001
Robert Jensen, Quarterly Journal of Economics
 Reduction in price dispersion
 Elimination of waste
 Consumer and producer welfare improved
Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 57

58. The Changing Job Market
Insights from the United States of America
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Mean task input (index)
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interpersonal
Percentile of the 1960s level
Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

59. 6. Great
Expectations
Now, I return to this young fellow.
And the communication I have got to
make is, that he has great
expectations.
- Charles Dickens

60. Great Expectations
Maslow’s Hierarchy
Self
Actualization -
Morality, creativity,
spontaneity, problem
solving, lack of
prejudice, acceptance of facts
Esteem – confidence, achievement,
respect of others, respect by others
Love and belonging – Friendships, family,
partnering
Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment,
health, property
Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking

61. Great Expectations
Utility - A non-linear relationship
Beers (schooners)
Happiness
(utility)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

K
Not likely
More likely

62. Great Expectations
The rise (and continued rise) of the experience economy
Source: Pine, BJ and Gilmore, JH (1998) Welcome to the experience economy. Harvard Business Review

63. Basic Expectations
24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)
33% of people in urban slums
15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry
United Nations, 2012

64. Thank you
Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
Principal Scientist
Connect with me on Linked In
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Or have coffee with me at the
Ecosciences Precinct in Brissy
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