Solar Energy

1. PVCEC 2015: PV Conference and Exhibition of China, Beijing, China Oct.13, 2015
Keynote
Looking at China’s PV Industry
from a Global Perspective
Dr. Wolfgang PALZ, WCRE, EU Official (ret), Paris,
France

2. Global Electric Power Capacity in
Operation by End 2015
 Overall : 5500 GW (5 500 000 MW)
 of which “Renewable” Capacity
 Hydropower : >1000 GW
 Wind power : >400 GW
 PV : >200 GW
 Biopower and others
China is Globally No1 in all Types of RE Power
Capacity Installations
Source: US Energy Information Administration, US NREL, others

3. The Meteoric Rise of PV since 2000
 PV had globally the biggest growth rate of
all types of electric power capacity,
conventional or renewable alike
 In just 3 years, since 2013, world PV
capacity installation doubled from 100 GW
to 200 GW
 Over 500 billion $ (500 000 million $) were
invested in PV since 2000
 A major part of the global investment for
PV modules went to the Chinese industry

4. Cumulative PV Installed Now, End of
2015
 China : >40 GW..3.5% country’s power capacity
 Germany : 40 GW...1/4 of fed. power capacity
 Japan : >25 GW..8.0% country’s power capacity
 USA : >25 GW...2.5% of federal power capacity
 (Europe : 92 GW........9% of all power capacity)
Source: RTS Corp. Tokyo, Japan, and own estimates

5. The Commercial Success of PV
 Global Success of PV is due to a ping-pong between
European politics triggered by Germany, Spain and
others, and China’s industry response to meet the
new opportunities for Mass production of modules
 The process was started in earnest in 2004 with the
FiT legislation in Germany, followed by other
European countries. As a result, until the end of 2012,
more than 50% of global PV was always installed in
Europe, led by Germany
 But since 2006 already over 50% of all global modules
installed came from China.
 The mass production of solar cells in Chinese industry
is at the origin of PV’s global commercial success

6. PV Markets and PV Industry
 Global PV markets in 2013 and 14 were +/- 40 GW of
Installations per year. Eventually, with an overcapacity of
58 GW, global PV industry could rapidly meet a much
larger market in the near future
 Chinese domestic PV installations in those years were
less than a quarter of global installations
 In contrast, in 2014, 87% of global solar cells were
produced by industry of China (PR and Taiwan). China
disposes of a cell production capacity of 43 GW
 In 2014, 8 of the largest PV shipment companies were
Chinese with Trina No1. One was Japanese and one US
 The Trend: Chinese present installation rate is the
world’s highest and accelerating. Europe, until 2012 the
engine of global PV is now a poor second, but stabilising

7. Economics of PV
 Apart from its environmental and societal attractions, PV
is a market winner because of its cost competitiveness
 PV modules come nowadays not much more than 1/2 a
US$/Watt. Turnkey PV system prices came down to little
more than 1 US$/Watt. The price of turnkey PV systems
equals now that of Wind turbines. Compared to the latest
generation of Nuclear reactors, the French EPR, PV
comes a lot cheaper, too - leaving alone a multitude of
other benefits of PV over Nuclear
 The kWh delivered by PV systems varies depending on
climate and other things between 10 and 5 US cents, in
best cases it can be 3 cents only. The kWh cost of new
Nuclear stations comes now at over 12 cents...

8. Look into the Future
 An outlook can only be speculative! Prospecting is big
business, but in the past nobody had foreseen the
explosive growth of the PV market, or the dwindling cost
of oil and fracking, of coal, or lower growth of electricity
consumption than anticipated
 But just as an example, the projection of the
knowledgeable expertise of Bloomberg NEF is given here:
 By 2030 in most countries would PV and Wind power be
cheaper than coal or gas
 By 2040 $12 trillion to be invested in new power, 2/3 of it on
RE power. $3.7 trillion to go on PV, most of it Building
integrated - and more on PV than on Wind power
 What is for sure is that China will play a determining rôle