6th IEA-Tsinghua Joint Workshop

1. Co‐benefits of global HFC phase‐down
under the Kigali Amendment
Pallav PUROHIT
IIASA - Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases
6th IEA-Tsinghua Joint Workshop
28th September 2020

2. National emission ceilings
Decision making on
air quality and GHG
management
Policy
targets
Social development
and economic activities
Emissions
Emission control options:
~2000 measures,
co-control of 10 air
pollutants and 6 GHGs
Atmospheric dispersion
Costs
Health, ecosystems and
climate impact indicators
Optimization
Greenhouse gas - Air Pollution INteractions
and Synergies (GAINS) Model
2
Exogenous
projections (IEA,
PRIMES,
MESSAGE, etc.

3. F
-
G
A
S
E
S
Hydrofluoro-
carbons
(HFCs)
Perfluoro-carbons
(PFCs)
Sulphur
hexafluoride (SF6)
Residential air conditioning (RAC) - 2
Commercial air conditioning (CAC) - 4
Domestic refrigerators (DOM) - 1
Industrial refrigeration (IND) - 4
Commercial refrigeration (COMM) - 4
Transport refrigeration (TRA_REF) - 2
Mobile air-conditioning (MAC) - 8
Aerosols (AERO) - 1
Foam (FOAM) - 2
Fire extinguishers (FEXT) - 2
HCFC-22 production (HCFC22) - 2
Primary Al production (ALU)
Semiconductor (SEMICOND)
High and mid voltage switches (GIS)
Soundproof windows (WIND)
Magnesium production and casting (MAGNPR)
36 sub-sectors on HFCs: Emissions
a) from in-use; and b) from end-of-
life for cooling technologies
Other sources of SF6 emissions (OTH_SF6)
Ground source heat pump (GSHP) - 2
Other uses of HFC (OTH_HFC) - 1
Other uses of PFC (OTH_PFC)
6 sub-sectors on PFCs
4 sub-sectors on SF6
GAINS: Activities and Sectors
Solvents (SOLV_PEM) - 1
Purohit et al. (2017) Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17: 2795–2816

4. Drivers Data sources
• Air conditioning
• Stationary (GDP, population, household size, cooling degree
days, commercial floor space etc.)
• Mobile (Number of vehicles, penetration rate, etc.)
• Refrigeration
• Domestic refrigerators (GDP, population, household size,
urbanization and electrification rate)
• Commercial refrigeration (Growth in commercial value added)
• Industrial refrigeration (Growth in industrial value added)
• Transport refrigeration (Growth in GDP)
• HCFC-22 production (Growth in industrial value added)
• Aerosols (Growth in population)
• Other (Fire-extinguishers, Foam, Solvents, heat pumps, etc.) -
(Growth in GDP)
• GDP and population: IEA, IIASA/SSP Database
• Cooling degree days: IEA
• Commercial floor space: IIASA/GAINS
• Household size, Urbanization, Electrification : IEA, UN-Habitat,
World Bank
• Historical data on HFC consumption: UNFCCC, UNEP/CCAC,
UNDP and other secondary sources
• HCFC-22 production (UNEP Ozone Secretariat)
• Energy efficiency (technical/economic): LBNL
• Leakage rates/emission factors: IIASA/GAINS
• GWPs: IPCC AR2, AR4 and AR5
• Lifimetime, refrigerant charge etc.: IIASA/GAINS
Drivers and data sources
4
Purohit et al. (2017) Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17: 2795–2816

5. 5
Overview of the HFC/co-benefits emission scenarios
Baseline
Alternative emission reduction scenarios
a) Kigali
Amendment
(KA)
b) KA with High Energy Efficiency (KA-
EE)
c)
(MTFR)
d) MTFR with High Energy Efficiency
(MTFR-EE)
Technical EE
potential
Economic EE
potential
Technical EE
potential
Economic EE
potential
CPS+ NPS SDS CPS NPS SDS CPS NPS SDS CPS NPS SDS
Baseline –SSP1 ✓
Baseline –SSP3 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Cooling for All* ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
*The Cooling for All initiative focuses on how we provide sustainable access to cooling within a clean energy transition, and in turn, support faster progress to achieve the goals of the Kigali Amendment.
+CPS: Current policies scenarios; NPS: New policies scenario; and SPS: Sustainable development scenario

6. Pre-Kigali baseline annual emissions of HFCs are expected to increase from about 0.5 to 4.3 Gt
CO2eq between 2005 and 2050, reaching between 6.1 and 6.8 Gt CO2eq in 2100, depending
on whether or not all households in hot climatic conditions install residential air conditioning.
Cumulative HFC emissions over the period 2018 to 2100 are estimated at 363 and 378 Gt
CO2eq in respective baseline scenarios.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
HFC
emissions
(Pg
CO
2
eq)
Australia Brazil China EU-28
India Indonesia Japan South Korea
Mexico Russia South Africa USA
Rest of the World
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
HFC
emissions
(Pg
CO
2
eq)
Stationary air-conditioning Mobile air-conditioning Commercial refrigeration
Industrial refrigeration Transport refrigeration Domestic refrigerators
Other source sector emissions HCFC emissions Cooling for All baseline scenario
SSP1 baseline scenario SSP3 -KA Scenario SSP3 -MTFR Scenario
Cooling for All -KA Scenario Cooling for All -MTFR Scenario
4.0-5.3 Gt CO2eq
(Velders et al.,
2015)
CFA (6.8)
SSP3 (6.2)
SSP1 (6.1)
Global (HCFC phase-out), regional (e.g. EU F-gas regulations)
and national regulations (e.g. USA, Japan)
Purohit et al. (2020) Atmos. Chem. Phys., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-193

7. ‐200
‐160
‐120
‐80
‐40
0
40
80
120
160
200
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Euro/t
CO
2
eq
HFC emission reduction (Mt CO2eq/year)
Non‐Article 5 Group 1: SSP3 technical EE
2030 2050 2100 KA reduction target
‐200
‐160
‐120
‐80
‐40
0
40
80
120
160
200
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Euro/t
CO
2
eq
HFC emission reduction (Mt CO2eq/year)
Article 5 Group 1: SSP3 technical EE
2030 2050 2100 KA reduction target
7
Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs)
‐200
‐160
‐120
‐80
‐40
0
40
80
120
160
200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Euro/t
CO
2
eq
HFC emission reduction (Mt CO2eq/year)
Non‐Article 5 Group 2: SSP3 technical EE
2030 2050 2100 KA reduction target
‐200
‐160
‐120
‐80
‐40
0
40
80
120
160
200
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Euro/t
CO
2
eq
HFC emission reduction (Mt CO2eq/year)
Article 5 Group 2: SSP3 technical EE
2030 2050 2100 KA reduction target

8. 8
If technical energy efficiency improvements are fully implemented, the resulting
electricity savings could exceed 20% of future global electricity consumption, while
the corresponding figure for economic energy efficiency improvements would be
about 15%.
Purohit et al. (2020) Atmos. Chem. Phys., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-193
‐0.25
‐0.2
‐0.15
‐0.1
‐0.05
0
‐9000
‐8000
‐7000
‐6000
‐5000
‐4000
‐3000
‐2000
‐1000
0
Electricity savings (as a share of 2050
global electricity consumption)
Electricity savings (TWh)
2050
Technical potential
Economic potential
‐0.3
‐0.25
‐0.2
‐0.15
‐0.1
‐0.05
0
‐18000
‐16000
‐14000
‐12000
‐10000
‐8000
‐6000
‐4000
‐2000
0
Electricity savings (as a share of 2100
global electricity consumption)
Electricity savings (TWh)
2100
Technical potential
Economic potential

9. 9
The combined effect of KA and energy efficiency improvement of the stationary cooling
technologies and future changes in the electricity generation fuel mix would prevent
between 411 and 631 Gt CO2eq. of GHG emissions between 2018 and 2100, thereby
making a significant contribution towards keeping the global temperature rise below 2°C.
Purohit et al. (2020) Atmos. Chem. Phys., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-193

10. 10
Reduced electricity consumption also means lower air pollution emissions in the
power sector, estimated at about 5-10% for SO2, 8-16% for NOx and 4-9% for
PM2.5 emissions compared with a pre-Kigali baseline.
Purohit et al. (2020) Atmos. Chem. Phys., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-193