Sectoral energy use in the domestic sector will decrease from 39 percent in 2005 to 23 percent in 2030.
Difference in sectoral distribution of energy use across states…
Detailed enough? List of technologies can be extended... Is it worth? Representative technologies... Scale – What level of detail go down in terms of activity...
The government is taking measure to implement Euro-II vehicular emission standards in Pakistan. In this regard, a number of meetings have been held with the stakeholders and it has been decided that Euro-II compliant diesel fuel should be introduced by the end of 2011. Introduction of Euro-II compliant petrol vehicles should be made by 1st July, 2009 and diesel vehicles by July of 2012. Instead of a fragmented approach, the Ministry proposes a Pakistan Clean Air Programme (PCAP) which should incorporate ongoing, in pipeline activities and new initiatives.
Baseline projection of air pollutant emissions in India 1990-2030 by sector. Emissions are scaled to the level of total emissions in 2005.In absolute terms, SO2 emissions will increase by a factor of 8.73. NOx emissions will increase by a factor of 4.63. PM 2.5 emissions will increase by a factor of 2.50. Similarly, VOC and NH3 emissions ill increase by 50 percent from 2005 to 2030.
1. It is observed that the large parts of Pakistan will experience an annual mean PM-2.5 concentration of more than 50 µg/m3 (BAU scenario) and exceeding to 150 µg/m3 in few regions. 2. While absolute health impacts are significant, there is a large difference between the two emission control scenarios. In the most polluted areas, life shortening would exceed 100 months on average in the BAU scenario, but remain around 60 months in the BAT case.
Applications of the GAINS model for integrated policy design
Pallav Purohit (MAG Program, IIASA)Applications of the GAINS model for integrated policy design GAINS SeminarPakistan Institute of Engineering & Applied Sciences (PIEAS), Islamabad 6th November 2012 1
Contents• Integrated Assessment Modeling• The GAINS Model – Methodology – Policies, Measures and Technologies – Emissions, Costs and Impacts• Summary 2
Economic development → Economic development and air pollution … to global climate change … and regional pollution … … over urban smog … From indoor pollution … Scale of pollution → 3
Integrated assessment Meteorology/Physics Human health Costs Socio-Economic ActivitiesTechnologies Emissions Ecosystems Atmospheric Chemistry Existing RegulationProvide useful information to decision makers in a timely manner 4
Policy questions for an IAM• What are the implications of current legislation on future environmental impacts?• How far could future impacts be reduced?• How much would it cost?• How can it be done in the most cost-effective way?• Who would have to pay?• How much would it cost to reduce air pollution levels to a given standard in a country/region?• For the worst-affect areas only? 5
Policy questions for an IAM (Cont’d)• What is the cheapest way to reduce health impacts on the population?• Which measures should be taken?• In which economic sectors?• Which pollutants should be addressed?• In which regions?• Which air pollution controls maximize the reduction of greenhouse gases? 6
The Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) Model• is an integrated assessment modeling and policy planning tool that helps to identify smart strategies to protect the local, regional, and global atmosphere while imposing the least burden on economic development• is used by the EU, UN-ECE, and various individual countries (Sweden, Netherlands, Italy, Ireland, China, Japan, …) for developing air quality policies• its predecessor RAINS was instrumental in designing important protocols of the LRTAP Convention – 2nd Sulfur Protocol – Gothenburg Protocol 7
Air pollution policy in Europe (with support of the GAINS model)• UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (1979) – SO2 protocols 1985, 1994 – NOx protocol 1988 – VOC protocol 1991 – Protocols on heavy metals and POP 1998 – Gothenburg Protocol (acid., eutroph. and ozone) 1999• EU Legislation – Air Quality Directives (1980 - 1998) – Technology-related Directives (LCP, IPPC, solvents, Auto-Oil, etc.) – National Emission Ceilings Directive (2001) – Thematic Strategy on Air pollution (2005) – National Emission Ceilings Directive (ongoing) 8
Why GAINS is different?• It’s transparent: – Online model: Results of analysis + input data – Reviewed (by scientific peers and stakeholders)• It’s participatory: – Close consultation with governments and experts from different countries (in Europe: over 35 countries) – Plug-in interaction with other models (e.g. PRIMES in EU) – Web 2.0 technology. – Download, MODIFY and share input data develop policy scenarios. 9
The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework including near-term climate impacts PM HFCs (BC, SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2O PFCs OC) SF6Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy) O3 (Premature mortality)Vegetation damage: O3 (AOT40/fluxes) Acidification (Excess of critical loads) Eutrophication (Excess of critical loads)Climate impacts: Long-term (GWP100) Near-term forcing (in Europe and global mean forcing) Black carbon deposition to the arctic 10
The GAINS approach for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies (GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies) IIASA’s GAINS optimization modelPM SO2 NH3 NOx VOC GHGsHealth Eutrophication Acidification Ozone Policy target on GHG Policy targets on air quality emissions 11
GAINS Pakistan – the Approach• Compilation of time-series data at five-year intervals from 1990 to 2030 (past and projected)• 4 administrative regions of Pakistan: 1) Punjab, 2) Sind, 3) Karachi, and 4) North West Frontier Provinces (NWFP)- Baluchistan• Activity data for – Macro-economic indicators (GDP, population, VA at factor cost in sectors such as energy, tertiary sector, construction and manufacturing industry) – Agriculture – Energy (including transport), and – Industrial and other processes 12
Sectors in GAINS Energy Transport Agriculture Processes Other 261PP Cars Livestock Cement GlueBoilers Trucks Crop area Aluminum LeatherResidential Buses Fertilizer Fertilizer PaintRefinery 2-stroke Grassland Mining Waste-water&tc Air, Ships Soils &tc &tc &tc &tc 43 26 32 106 53 14
Activities in Sectors Sector Activity UnitPower plants Hard Coal PJ Brown Coal PJ Natural Gas PJ …Refineries Crude oil processed PJ ...Dairy cows Cows in liquid manure M# management ….Transport Trucks driving with diesel M#… Total: 888 combinations for each geographic region 15
Energy (fuels)• Coal and lignite • Not considered for Pakistan: – Hydrogen• Petroleum products – Heat – Geothermal energy, etc.• Natural gas• Hydro power• Nuclear power• Biomass fuels• Other renewable energy sources• (Electricity) 16
Fuel consumption - trends• Fuel consumption increases across all sectors• 2005: domestic sector - largest consumer of energy (39%)• 2030: power and industrial sector - larger consumer of energy (51%) 18
Energy consumption across regions/provinces 19
Energy consumption across sectors in regions 20
Industrial & other processes• Construction and mining activities• Primary and secondary aluminium production• Other non-ferrous metals• Iron and steel production• Cement and lime production• Bricks production• Production of chemicals• Production in paper pulp mills• Oil and gas related parameters• Storage and handling related parameters• Wastewater related parameters 21
Measures and Technologies• Technical vs. non-technical measures• Appropriate detail?• Appropriate scale? 24
GAINS Scenario(s)• Current legislation (CLE) – Implementation of emission control measures that are currently laid down in Pakistani legislation (until 2005)• Advanced control technology (ACT) – Implementation of control measures applied in industrialized countries 25
Legislative framework and environment related policies • National Environmental Action Plan (NEAP), 2001 • National Environmental Policy, 2005 – Water supply management • National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS) – Air quality and noise – Waste management • Pakistan Clean Air Programme (PCAP) – Forestry – Biodiversity and protected areas • National Policies and Strategies – Climate change and ozone depletion – National Conservation Strategy, 1992 – Energy efficiency and renewables – National Environmental Policy, 2005 – Agriculture and livestock – National Sanitation Policy – Multilateral environmental agreements – National Water Policy – Cross-sectoral guidelines (poverty, population, gender, health, trade, local – National Drinking Water Policy governance, disaster management) – National Forest Policy – National Rangeland Policy • Energy Policies and Actions – National Operational Strategy for CDM – Policy for power generation (2002) – National energy conservation policy – Policy for development of renewable energy for power generationSource: World Bank (2009); Ayaz (2010) – Energy security action plan (2005-2030) 26
Options to control emissions of air pollutantsStationary sources:• SO2 (180 control options) – Use of low sulfur fuels, In-furnace control , Flue gases desulphurization, Process emissions controls• NOx (400 control options) – Combustion modification, Catalytic and non-catalytic reduction• NH3 (110 control options) – Dietary changes, Animal housing adaptation and air purification, Manure storage and application techniques, Urea substitution• VOC (500 control options) – Basic management techniques, Solvent substitution, End-of-pipe measures• PM (850 control options) – Cyclones, ESP, other Filters, Cleaner industrial processes, Improved boilers and stoves, Good practicesMobile sources: • EURO standards • Non-road EURO equivalents
Costs• Total costs are determined by combination of – activity levels – control strategies – unit costs Costs = Activity level * % of capacity controlled * unit cost 28
Example: Pakistan Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 in Pakistan for 2020 CLE ACT Health impacts due to ambient concentration of PM2.5 in 2020Source: Munir (2008) CLE – 100 months ACT – 60 months 33
Summary• Current economic growth will counteract ongoing efforts to improve air pollution problem in Pakistan unless pollution control laws are significantly upgraded.• Advanced emission control technologies are available to maintain acceptable levels of air quality despite the pressure from growing economic activities.• Costs of implementing air pollution control measures prescribed in the current legislation are estimated more than 0.2 percent of GDP until 2020, and this share would increase to 1.0 percent in 2030 with the application of ACT.• A cost-effective strategy may help to reduce costs for air pollution control as compared to conventional approaches. 34
The GAINS model is freely accessible on the Internet: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at• Access to on-line versions – South Asia – China – Europe – Annex-I – Global• Policy reports, user tutorials, model documentation, etc. 35