Agenda: - Executive Summary - Summary by key sector - Summary by Province - Outlook

1. Manufacturing Sales –
Canada – March 2016
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA

2. Disclaimer
• This presentation discusses Canada Manufacturing Sales and Trends

3. Paul Young - Presenter
Bio
• CPA/CGA
• 25 years of experience in Academia, Industry and Financial solutions
• Youtube Channel -
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAArky1bAXPSuV2NLtUnyLg

4. Agenda
• Executive Summary
• Summary by key sector
• Summary by Province
• Outlook

5. Executive Summary
• The headline drop was a little better than expected via less of a drop in March than feared but about 70% of
that was due to downward revisions (February now -4.0% m/m).
• Sales volumes were up a smidge (0.1% m/m). All of the decline in March’s sales figure was therefore due to
lower prices.
• Breadth was quite poor as 16 of 21 sectors fell. Petroleum, clothing, textiles and electrical equip/appliances
were upsides.
• And tracking is way down. From about 10% q/q growth in Q1 based on the Q4 hand-off and the first two-
thirds of the quarter, we're now left with 5.7% q/q growth in shipment volumes during Q1. That’s decent,
but about half the pace
• previously thought on revisions and March data combined. If there is a silver lining to that, it lies in the fact
that less upside in Q1 may mean less downside in Q2.
• Inventories fell 0.4% to $71.2 billion in March, their lowest level since January 2015. This was the fifth
decline in
• eight months. Inventories decreased in 13 of 21 industries. Lower inventories for aerospace product and
parts, primary metals, and wood product industries were responsible for most of the decline. The decrease
in aerospace partly reflected a stronger Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar. Inventories in the
aerospace industry are mainly held in US dollars; therefore, currency fluctuations willinfluence their value.

6. Sales by Sector

7. Manufacturing Sales by province
• Sales were down in five provinces in March,
with Ontario posting the largest decrease.
Ontario manufacturing sales fell 1.9% to $24.8
billion in March, the second consecutive
monthly decline. The decrease was mainly
caused by lower sales in the transportation
equipment (-2.7%) and primary metals (-
6.9%) industries.
• Sales in Quebec fell 1.4% to $11.5 billion in
March, the third consecutive monthly decline.
The decrease in March was the result of lower
production in the aerospace product and
parts industry (-9.3%) and lower sales in the
primary metal industry (-6.3%).
• The declines in Ontario and Quebec were
partially offset by increases in New Brunswick,
British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Alberta and
Nova Scotia. Higher sales in these provinces
were largely the result of gains in non-durable
goods industries.

8. Outlook for 2016
• Fort McMurray Fire - $1B loss production
• Automotive production is down to 17.4M units
• Ontario climate change policies could phased out natural gas. The
proposal would see over $7B invested into retrofitting houses for
solar and wind power.
• Strong Housing Market for both Canada and United States
• Infrastructure spending planned in Canada (Transit and Clean
Technology)

9. Other Sources:
• Contact: paul_young_cga@Hotmail.com