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Canada Economy Overview for
June 2015 – Trends and Policies
Analysis
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
Commentary
Commentary
• There is allot said about the economy and mostly the saying the economy is terrible shape Here are key information on economy:
• Housing Starts
• Retail sales
• Employment
CME Quote:
• Quotes from CME “ The release of GDP figures for April suggest that a recession may be inevitable in 2015. Even though the Canadian
economy shrank by a relatively modest 0.1 per cent compared to March, April also marked the fifth decline in economic output in the past
six months. Barring any significant revisions to April’s figures, the Canadian economy will have to grow at a rate of 0.3 per cent in both May
and June, just to avoid a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
• The silver lining, if one can call it that, is that the economic contraction in April was largely due to a series of wildfires across Alberta,
causing significant supply disruptions in the oil patch and driving the Canadian economy into negative territory. GDP in the mining, oil and
gas sector fell by 2.6 per cent in April – by far the largest decrease of any major economic sector. Were it not for that decrease in energy
output, the Canadian economy would have grown by 0.2 per cent in April. Unfortunately, the threat has not abated since April as hot, dry
weather, thunderstorms and relatively little rain are contributing to one of the worst years in recent memory for wildfires across western
Canada.”
CommentaryQuote from Scotia Bank “
• Employment
• “Canada has created 102,000 jobs since the start of the year and almost 200,000 jobs over the past year during which oil prices slid. The
unemployment rate lags recessions but employment losses are usually fairly coincidental to falling GDP. A large disconnect has now emerged
between the measures (chart 1). Will a trend toward job losses arise in future? Maybe, but during past periods of sharp oil price declines we
would have seen a jobs hit by now (chart 2). The rate debate should wait for at least several months to see if this happens.
• Housing Market / Retail Sales
• “Housing markets remain on fire. House prices are climbing to new alltime record highs (+8% y/y across Canada; 7% in Toronto and 11% in
Vancouver) and home sales continue to climb higher and higher. Vehicle sales are trending at elevated heights. Retail sales volumes have
been volatile since December but the trend is resilient.”
• Source:
• http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-industry-and-market-indicators-for-june-2015-canada-and-north-america
• http://mb.cme-mec.ca/?lid=YXN82-W3NF7-IC132&comaction=show&cid=RDWV3-7B5SP-FDEX3
• Scotia Bank - http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/cmsr150709.pdf
• There are risks to Canada due to following issues:
• Lower oil prices
• Softness in China
• Softness in Europe
• Canada still exports about 75% of its good to the USA. USA economic is projected to pick up the pace in 3rd and 4th Quarter -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-unexpected-investment-predictions-for-the-second-half-of-2015-2015-07-02
Automotive Sector
Automotive Production
Canada Automotive
Canada Automotive
Impact of Production change
Canada Auto Sales
Canada Auto Sales
Scotia Bank
Automotive
International Trade
Canada Exports and Imports
Canada Trade
Exports – EDC Comments
Canada Exports
Canada Exports
Trade Comments
Comments Trade/May 2015
Comments Trade/May 2015
Comments Trade/May 2015
Comments Trade/May 2015
Stats Canada – Trade Comments
Trade / Canada
Manufacturing Trends
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
Canadian Manufacturing
Canada MFG Sales
Forestry Industry
Canadian Manufacturing Analysis
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
Canadian Manufacturing Sales
US MFG
PMI Index
PMI Index
Robotics
Competitiveness
Competitiveness
Freight Index
Freight Index
Freight Index
Trailer Sales
Housing Starts
Housing Starts - USA
Housing Starts - Canada
AG Equipment
AG Equipment
AG Equipment
AG Equipment
AG Equipment
Canada Equipment Tax Policy
Electricity Power
Electricity Power
Metal Processing Center
Commodity Prices
Commodity Prices
Commodity Prices
Commodity Index
Commodity Index
Commodity Index
Commodity Index
Mining Issues
Mining Issues
Iron Ore
Lithium
Copper
Aluminum Wiring
Oil Rig Count
Oil Refineries
Oil Refineries
Oil Outlook
Oil Outlook
Crude Oil
Crude Oil
Canada Oil
Oil - China
Machine Tool Orders
US Machine Tools
Robotic Trends
Class 8 Truck Sales
Truck Sales
Steel Analysis
Steel Analysis
Steel Industry
Steel Industry
Stelco - Demise
Stelco - Demise
Green Technology
Cleantech Index
Cleantech Index
Asia / Green Tech
US Green Investment
Other Provinces
BC
• http://www.canplastics.com/economy/nova-scotia-and-british-
columbia-team-up-to-enhance-initiatives-for-skilled-
workers/1003435616/
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/vancouver-
based-ibc-ships-f-35-components-to-lockheed-martin-151087/
• http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/b-c-government-approves-
construction-projects-for-9b-site-c-hydro-dam-1.2458542
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/rio-tinto-
starts-up-4-8b-upgraded-aluminum-smelter-in-kitimat-bc-150871/
• http://www.oilandgas360.com/transcanada-first-nations-sign-
agreements-4-8-billion-pipeline-will-transport-2-3-bcfday-natgas-lng-
canada/
Alberta
• http://www.cargill.com/news/releases/2015/NA31872670.jsp
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/sustainability/alberta-
innovates-sinks-1-5m-into-energy-storage-projects-150541/
Saskatchewan
• http://www.purchasingb2b.ca/1-purchasingb2b/ird-lands-us38-
million-contract-144990/
Manitoba
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/city-council-
mulling-deal-to-build-new-parmalat-milk-processing-plant-in-
winnipeg-151234/
Ontario
• http://www.canadianmetalworking.com/automotive-manufacturing-
report-111726/
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/technology/henvey-inlet-
wind-project-gets-3m-boost-from-feds-151365/
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/feds-award-
two-nsps-contracts-for-small-coast-guard-vessels-151099/
Quebec
• http://www.plant.ca/general/uniboard-invests-7m-to-boost-mdf-
capacity-at-mont-laurier-plant-149831/
• http://www.porttr.com/en/news/major-investment-at-the-port-of-
trois-rivieres
New Brunswick
• http://www.woodbusiness.ca/harvesting/forestry-management/jd-
irving-canadian-forest-service-develop-advanced-seedlings-2638
Nova Scotia
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/operations/liquefied-
natural-gas-project-in-cape-breton-gets-u-s-export-approval-151475/
PEI
• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/technology/p-e-i-gives-
vector-aerospace-5-4m-for-new-test-cell-150389/
Newfoundland
• http://www.capebretonpost.com/News/Regional/2015-07-20/article-
4220317/Newfoundland-and-Labrador-to-examine-potential-hydro-
sales-to-Ontario-/1
North
• http://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/newsrelease/15-07-
20/slump_in_metal_and_mineral_prices_puts_chill_in_territories_ec
onomic_outlook.aspx
Economic Trends for Canada
Canada GDP – May 2015
Canada GDP – May 2015
GDP Analysis – May 2015
Canada GDP – May 2015
Canada GDP – May 2015
GDP – CME
GDP – CME
GDP – CME
GDP – CME
Retail sales by Province
Retail Sales
Retail sales by Segment
Canada Retail Sales
Employment
Employment
Labor Analysis - Canada
• Employment – All I see from your comments is opinion and no facts.
It seems you call me a troll, right? The only reason people call me a
troll is they cannot defend their opinion with facts, right? Let me
crunch a few things based on the below links –
• Since 2010 there has been 722K full-time jobs and 118K part-time jobs
created in Canada. So, 86% of the new jobs are full-time. So, where is the 80%
number you quoting coming from in terms of its accuracy?
• The main sector of growth are the following sectors
• Accommodation/food services approximately 98K
• Healthcare approximately 249K – this ties to more money being spent on healthcare by
provinces to support need for additional services
• Professional jobs approximately 170K
• Construction approximately 220K – does this not benefit skill trades and tied to the
housing market being solid in Canada
Labor Analysis - Canada
• Summary:
• The bulk of jobs are in areas that pay good salaries. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-
tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/labor93a-eng.htm. The only sector that would see the bulk of
minimum wage would be accommodation/services.
• Food/Services jobs are created due to people spending money on meals and entertainment
and travel - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trad15a-eng.htm
or https://www.restaurantscanada.org/Portals/0/Non-
Member/2015/restaurantoutlooksurvey_2015_q1.pdf
• Source: http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/13-11-
05/which_industries_are_creating_jobs.aspx
• http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/13-11-
05/which_industries_are_creating_jobs.aspx
• http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ10-eng.htm
Household Debt
Wages / Canada
Global Trends
Global Trends
Global Trends
Global Trends
Global Trends
US Economy
US Durable Goods
US Durable Goods
Latin America
Latin America
Currency
Currency
Corporations
Capital Spending - USA
Capital Spending - USA
Small Business
Small Business
Small Business
Small Business
Government Policies
Foresty Sector
• www.parl.gc.ca/Content/HOC/Committee/412/RNNR/Reports/RP804
6840/412_RNNR_Rpt13_PDF/412_RNNR_Rpt13-e.pdf
Quebec Government / Security Audits
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
Manufacturing Policies
Manufacturing organization / Medium
Manufacturing organization / Medium
• Mulcair’s comment –
• Medium and Large companies would not qualified for the tax cuts
and in fact would see their taxes increased.
Manufacturing organization / Medium
• Mulcair’s comment –
• Medium are those entities that are $10M and up to $50M. The average medium sales value is $34M. This market segment would be
ignored by Mulcair – “Over one third (37%) of mid-sized firms’ head offices are in Ontario, followed by 27% in Quebec, 19% in the Prairies,
12% in British Columbia and 6% in the Atlantic region. The top five sector in which they are active include: manufacturing (18%); retail
(16%); business services (14%); accommodation and food services (13%); and construction (8%)
Manufacturing organization / Medium
• Mulcair’s comment –
• Mulcair seems to be spinning his wheels as factors that drive business investment are controlled by the provinces, i.e. Hydro Rates,
Regulations, new taxes (ORPP, Carbon Pricing, etc.). So, how is mulcair going to deal with local issues facing business? It seems Mulcair
did not read the OCC report on hydro rates -
Manufacturing – NDP Comments
• NDP Supporter, Here is simple question for you "Defend Mulcair's policies to where the private sector supports the hiking of taxes". It is
simple request that to this date has not been defended with any valid links from the Chamber of Commerce or CFIB or CAPP or CME or
other trade/business association. It seems to me that Mulcair is the one that is inconsistent with his comments. Right? Mulcair tells unions
he hates corporate welfare, right? http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-targets-freeloader-corporations-in-speech-to-teamsters-
1.2774959.
•
• Mulcair then tells he supports manufacturing, right? http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-champions-manufacturing-cambridge. Mulcair
claims small business create the manufacturing jobs, right? Yet the facts show only about 1/3 of manufacturers are small business, right?
NDP approach is too narrow as you support hiking corporate tax up to 22% for medium to large corporation and reducing small business tax
by 2% over two years. Where is your analysis to support this will help small business - https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/061.nsf/vwapj/KSBS-
PSRPE_July-Juillet2012_eng.pdf/$FILE/KSBS-PSRPE_July-Juillet2012_eng.pdf?
Manufacturing – NDP Comments
• Jason Myers who is CEO for CME has said Harper’s policies continue to support manufacturing, but no comment on what Mulcair would
keep in terms of Harper’s policies, right? http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=X4NX7-
CPP8J-8EJNG. FYI – There are already programs that provide seed money that are similar to innovation credit, but Mulcair appears on
surface that he will rebrand those policies as NDP.
• Green Technology - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-policy-analysis-green-technology-canadaa
• Government Programs - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada
•
• Jason Myers (CME) and others have called out Mulcair for his inconsistency with corporate tax http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-
1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HRH7K-9UE34-ACUS8 or http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-
corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/. So, are these comments lies and if so then defend why these comments are lies. All I have seen
is people say “Mulcair will look at average rates with OECD”, but little else in statement. The fact is Canada ranking overall for taxation is 23
within OECD, but Mulcair never mention this ranking, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/corporation-taxation-canada-
44675640
•
Manufacturing – NDP Comments
• I have worked for many years with all aspect of business including manufacturing as such have a good understanding of the issues facing
business. Business will tell Mulcair the world is very competitive and what they do not want from a government is more taxes, red tape,
higher hydro rates, etc. Business will also tell you their main issues are input costs, access to capital, productivity, access to markets, and
quality workers. There is very little in Mulcair’s statements that support any of those areas, especially productivity since that would mean
working with union on automation and/or improvements with manufacturing process to help streamline production processes. BTW: When
has union work with a business to automate the business as a way to help it compete? Unifor seems to support ORPP, but says little how
the cost burden would hurt the small business owner with a tax increase - http://www.unifor.org/en/whats-new/press-room/ontario-push-
broad-orpp CFIB has said ORPP will hurt small business - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5860-provincial-pension-plan-an-attack-on-
small-business.html. So, who is lying? Is Mulcair/Unifor telling the truth or Is CFIB telling the truth? It seems to me business said they do
support retirement options including pooling plans - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/3923-pooled-registered-pension-plans-
prpps.html. Yet, no comment from Mulcair, why? Mulcair did say he supports changes to CPP, right?
http://www.carp.ca/2015/05/28/mandatory-cpp-contributions-are-the-way-to-go-say-both-trudeau-and-mulcair/. How is CPP funded? It is
funded by payroll taxes? So, hiking CPP would be tax to business so how is this not hurting the small business sector?
•
• Mulcair also mention “Dutch Disease - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/is-canada-suffering-from-dutch-disease-1.1140014” that was
playing into Quebec and Ontario way to blame the whole manufacturing issues on a high dollar and not areas like hydro rates
“http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ontario-businesses-call-on-province-to-curb-rising-electricity-prices-1.3142255. So, who is right? Is the
Chamber of Commerce wrong? Mulcair never mention how metal fabricators companies as well as other provinces have benefit from the
oil sands, why? http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2012/07/ontario-manufacturers-retool-to-take-advantage-of-a-prairie-energy-boom/.
So, who is lying about benefits of oil sands?
•
• NDP supporters are entitled to vote for who they want as PM, but to say Mulcair is “Pro manufacturing” is fallacy! If you think I am wrong
then prove me wrong which have never happen on Mulcair’s page or with his various MP/candidates.
Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)
• It is too bad that both Ontario and PQ have drove out business or they would be bigger parts of the economic growth in Canada! Ontario
should be 3-4% growth and not 2.2%! http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/focus/20150313/feature.pdf . Wait till Ontario
taxpayers get the full brunt of ORPP and the carbon tax!!
• Volvo used to make graders in Goderich back in 2008 and then moved the production to South Carolina
(http://www.thestar.com/business/2008/10/01/volvo_plant_closure_takes_toll_on_goderich.html). One would have to think if the
fundamentals were stronger in Ontario then would Volvo have left Ontario or would have considered Ontario for more investment?
http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/volvo-chooses-south-carolina-for-us500m-assembly-plant-
147824/?utm_source=CMO&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CMO-EN05112015
• NDP under Mulcair seems to not understand the constitution – 92A – I suggest you check out comments from Peter Julian, Nathan Cullen,
Megan Leslie, Niki Ashton, Mulcair, etc. It seems to me they NDP blames MFG losses solely on Harper, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9M64cHqtx8 . Yet, no comment on Butts’ statement -
http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank
or http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HRH7K-9UE34-ACUS8
Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)• Source:
• Ontario Exports lack capacity - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/19/ontario-manufacturers-key-to-recovery/.
• Debt Rating - http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2015/07/06/sp-downgrades-ontario.html
• Ontario (ORPP) - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/12/jack-mintz-ontarios-really-bad-pension-scheme/ or http://www.cfib-
fcei.ca/english/article/6406-ontario-budget-reissued.html
• Carbon Taxes - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-18/british-columbia-to-outline-carbon-tax-policies-for-lng.html what is also not
being said is the tax credits that were brought in as part of buffering the impact of the carbon tax, like lowering personal and corporate
taxes or tax credits for entertainment industries, or the areas. The BC government also introduced as specific tax for LNG as way to bring in
revenue and to take advantage of growth in LNG. The problem in Ontario is the tax likely will not have much tax credits. Wynne is desperate
for money as such will push the carbon tax as tax grab masked as helping the environment. BTW: Ontario has no coal generation as that has
been eliminated. Ontario will see costs go up by 3% on top other taxes like ORPP or hikes in hydro rates or other areas. Ontario is becoming
very unaffordable for people! My above presentation explains the impact of the carbon tax/pricing in Canada. FYI - Australia scrap the tax,
why? http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/australia-scraps-carbon-tax-tony-abbott-makes-his-country-a-global-
pariah-after-legislation-is-passed-by-senate-9613291.html. If you want go after emitters then why not slammed the carbon tax on imports
from China, India and/or USA? It seems to me India/China/USA are the biggest emitters for GHG, right? Source: ‘
• Harmonization - http://www.cp24.com/mcguinty-rejects-claim-hst-will-kill-jobs-says-it-will-create-600-000-1.454807
• Hydro Rates - http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/02/26/ontarios_big_industries_plead_for_lower_hydro_rates.html or
http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank
or http://www.northernlife.ca/news/localNews/2015/07/09-hydro-rates-chamber-report-sudbury.aspx
• Skills Gaps - http://www.collegesontario.org/Need_to_Make_Skills_Work_Report_June_2013.pdf
Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)• Other Sources / Government policies/market trends
• Municipalities: http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada
• KPIs for January 2015 - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-market-and-industry-indicators-for-canada-january-2015
• Internal Trade Barriers - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/internal-trade-canada
• CFIB - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5299-employment-insurance-helping-workers-back-to-work.html
• Programs – SDTC - http://www.orbitealuminae.com/English/investors/news/news-details/2015/REMINDER-Orbite-Selected-for-45M-Grant-
From-Sustainable-Development-Technology-Canada-SDTC/default.aspx. This program was started by the Liberal party, but kept by the CPC
• Programs – EDC http://www.edc.ca/EN/Knowledge-Centre/Economic-Analysis-and-Research/Documents/export-performance-monitor.pdf
• Programs – small business loans – http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2015/01/22/harper-says-small-business-getting-financial-help
• Natural Gas - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/19/canada-to-reduce-taxes-for-lng-projects-stephen-harper-says/?__lsa=2753-
9c88
• Stimulus - http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-conservatives-ill-advised-to-revive-stimulus-spending-if-economy-tanks-
again
• Infrastructure spending - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada
• Flexible manufacturing - http://www.uky.edu/~dsianita/611/fms.html
LNG
• Liquefied Natural Gas
• BC – Petronas - http://www.680news.com/2015/07/25/b-c-finance-minister-heads-to-malaysia-to-discuss-petronas-lng-deal/
• Cape Breton - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bear-head-lng-corp-gets-export-approval-from-u-s-1.3159753
•
• The NDP is against GHG as such where does the NDP stand on LNG Plants?
https://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/industry/Energy/Documents/LNG-Advisory-GHG-V4-Web-secured.pdf. Does this mean NDP will shut down
these types of investments?
•
• Harper introduced programs to support LNG investment as such will the NDP kill those tax policies?
http://globalnews.ca/news/1840176/harper-announces-tax-breaks-for-lng-in-b-c/.
•
• How does Mulcair’s cap and trade system support energy sector including LNG? http://www.burnabynewsleader.com/news/environment-
debate-warms-up-federal-election-1.1993912
•
• It seems the NDP has yet to be coherent on their energy strategy including LNG. So, why would anyone trust the NDP if they cannot stand
up for Canadian Energy?
•
LNGMPs over LNG projects
• There is allot activity with LNG, especially Cape Breton and BC.
• BC riding is Cullen, but no comment from him on the proposed deal with Petronas, why? You would think a project of this size that brings
jobs to Cullen's area would be supported by him, right?
• Rodger Cuzner is the MP over Cape Breton project, but no comment from him as well. Rodger Cuzner is Liberal member of the House of
Commons
• Rodger Cuzner has all kinds of time to criticize C377, but no time to promote the LNG project, why?
• https://www.ibew213.org/news/conservatives-use-machiavellian-ploy-pass-anti-labour-bill
Facts/figures/comments/questions on LNG Policy:
Liquefied Natural Gas
• BC – Petronas - http://www.680news.com/2015/07/25/b-c-finance-minister-heads-to-malaysia-to-discuss-petronas-lng-deal/
• Cape Breton - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bear-head-lng-corp-gets-export-approval-from-u-s-1.3159753
• The NDP is against GHG as such where does the NDP stand on LNG Plants?
https://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/industry/Energy/Documents/LNG-Advisory-GHG-V4-Web-secured.pdf. Does this mean NDP will shut
down these types of investments?
• Harper introduced programs to support LNG investment as such will the NDP kill those tax policies?
http://globalnews.ca/news/1840176/harper-announces-tax-breaks-for-lng-in-b-c/
• How does Mulcair’s cap and trade system support energy sector including LNG? http://www.burnabynewsleader.com/news/environment-
debate-warms-up-federal-election-1.1993912
• It seems the NDP has yet to be coherent on their energy strategy including LNG. So, why would anyone trust the NDP, especially when
they are not prepared to stand up for Canadian Energy
Cullen:
• Prince Rupert - http://www.rupertport.com/news/releases/fairview-terminal-expansion
Pipelines
BC and Resource Management
NDP Corporate Taxation• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/
• Taxation Analysis - NDP Policy: http://xfer.ndp.ca/2013/policybook/2013-04-17-PolicyBook_E.pdf
• NDP lists manufacturing:
• Harper has already supports MFG via tax policies and/or grants - http://cme-mec.ca/_uploads/_media/52fqtx4b9.pdf. So, how is the NDP going to handle tax
policies? NDP talks about support for business, but says nothing on existing programs like SDTC or EDC or other programs that support seed money or loans
or other tax reduction, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/trade-and-investment-for-canada or
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada.
• Harper has no control over provinces establishing policies like carbon pricing/taxation or provincial pension plans, regulations, etc. Yet, these
aforementioned programs do more harm than good to Canada’s competitive position.
• Canada already has a green economy via programs like SDTC. So, why does Mulcair not mentioned that in his statements? http://dualcitizeninc.com/GGEI-
Report2014.pdf.
• FTA/Investment agreements by Harper already supports huge inflow of capital to help develop the resources and/or industry in Canada -
http://www.automationmag.com/industry-news/news/4429-canada-ranks-third-globally-in-foreign-direct-investment-confidence-index/. Yet, Mr. Mulcair does not
mention that issue, why?
• Exports – Harper’s trade deal will start to provide more opportunity for business - https://globalconnections.hsbc.com/united-kingdom/en/tools-data/trade-
forecasts/ca. Yet Mulcair does not mention these deals, why? http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/canadas-trade-growth-to-return-to-
pre-recession-levels-says-hsbc-148943/
• NDP says targeting employment tax credit, but is that not the same as what Harper is doing with EI cuts and/or training/skills options – So, how come this program
is ignored by Mulcair - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5299-employment-insurance-helping-workers-back-to-work.html.
• NDP has transitioned programs listed, but says little how Harper has introduced programs to help business adjust to competitive pressures, why?
http://saulschwartz.com/2014/12/11/the-newfoundland-fisheries-innovation-and-adjustment-fund/. NF is fighting the program as they want to use the money for
other purposes. So, does the NDP support handling a blank check to the provinces without any accountability on how the money is to be spent as part of any
transitioning of businesses?
NDP Corporate Taxation
• NDP has social programs like EI and CPP on the list, but is less than clear what that means in terms of policies. If there is further expansion of those programs
then how will the cost be pick up? Does that mean the NDP endorses higher payroll taxes? Harper is working on training and skills development -
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1528807/harper-government-announces-support-mine-training. NDP never makes comments on these programs, why? NDP
is also less than clear on education, especially at the provincial level. It is not Harper’s fault if provinces are not putting the right focus on skills and training:
http://www.plant.ca/insights/canada-needs-manufacturing-strategy/. The provinces set the educational curriculum as such why is Mulcair not calling out the
provinces?
• Made in Canada solutions? How is Mulcair going to come up with value added work in Canada? Is Mulcair going to throw subsidies at business? Yet, Harper is
focus on advance manufacturing that will lead to valued added work being created in Canada - http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=905129
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/harper-government-supports-innovation-in-western-canada-2000280.htm
• NDP has labor laws listed, but said little how provinces have control over many areas of labor law: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_labour_law or
http://www.benefitscanada.com/news/ontario-to-launch-consultations-on-labour-laws-62723. So, where does the NDP stand on bringing consistency to labor
laws across Canada?
• Social responsibilities – Harper continues to ensure companies live up to their social responsibilities - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-
business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/ottawa-vows-to-protect-canada-brand-with-social-responsibility-policy/article21579511/ or How come Mr.
Mulcair does not discussed the sustainable reporting already being done by companies? http://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/sustainability/publications/corporate-
sustainability-reporting-canada-2009-en.pdf
• Overall, the NDP policies is all about riding existing policies as well as putting their own spin on policies. The ironic thing is that most of the policies in discussion
by the NDP have already been implemented by Harper and/or will continue to be revisited as part supporting the economy.
• The NDP is also not being truthful on the cost of their programs as any changes to programs will have a costs. So, where is the fully-costed analysis from the NDP?
It seems to me NDP is just throwing out policies without truly understanding either the cost impact and/or the risk to business as part implementing changes in
policies!
•
Corporate Taxation

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Key industry and market indicators for june 2015 canada and north america

  • 1. Canada Economy Overview for June 2015 – Trends and Policies Analysis By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
  • 3. Commentary • There is allot said about the economy and mostly the saying the economy is terrible shape Here are key information on economy: • Housing Starts • Retail sales • Employment CME Quote: • Quotes from CME “ The release of GDP figures for April suggest that a recession may be inevitable in 2015. Even though the Canadian economy shrank by a relatively modest 0.1 per cent compared to March, April also marked the fifth decline in economic output in the past six months. Barring any significant revisions to April’s figures, the Canadian economy will have to grow at a rate of 0.3 per cent in both May and June, just to avoid a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. • The silver lining, if one can call it that, is that the economic contraction in April was largely due to a series of wildfires across Alberta, causing significant supply disruptions in the oil patch and driving the Canadian economy into negative territory. GDP in the mining, oil and gas sector fell by 2.6 per cent in April – by far the largest decrease of any major economic sector. Were it not for that decrease in energy output, the Canadian economy would have grown by 0.2 per cent in April. Unfortunately, the threat has not abated since April as hot, dry weather, thunderstorms and relatively little rain are contributing to one of the worst years in recent memory for wildfires across western Canada.”
  • 4. CommentaryQuote from Scotia Bank “ • Employment • “Canada has created 102,000 jobs since the start of the year and almost 200,000 jobs over the past year during which oil prices slid. The unemployment rate lags recessions but employment losses are usually fairly coincidental to falling GDP. A large disconnect has now emerged between the measures (chart 1). Will a trend toward job losses arise in future? Maybe, but during past periods of sharp oil price declines we would have seen a jobs hit by now (chart 2). The rate debate should wait for at least several months to see if this happens. • Housing Market / Retail Sales • “Housing markets remain on fire. House prices are climbing to new alltime record highs (+8% y/y across Canada; 7% in Toronto and 11% in Vancouver) and home sales continue to climb higher and higher. Vehicle sales are trending at elevated heights. Retail sales volumes have been volatile since December but the trend is resilient.” • Source: • http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-industry-and-market-indicators-for-june-2015-canada-and-north-america • http://mb.cme-mec.ca/?lid=YXN82-W3NF7-IC132&comaction=show&cid=RDWV3-7B5SP-FDEX3 • Scotia Bank - http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/cmsr150709.pdf • There are risks to Canada due to following issues: • Lower oil prices • Softness in China • Softness in Europe • Canada still exports about 75% of its good to the USA. USA economic is projected to pick up the pace in 3rd and 4th Quarter - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-unexpected-investment-predictions-for-the-second-half-of-2015-2015-07-02
  • 17. Exports – EDC Comments
  • 25. Stats Canada – Trade Comments
  • 84. Class 8 Truck Sales
  • 95. Asia / Green Tech
  • 98. BC • http://www.canplastics.com/economy/nova-scotia-and-british- columbia-team-up-to-enhance-initiatives-for-skilled- workers/1003435616/ • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/vancouver- based-ibc-ships-f-35-components-to-lockheed-martin-151087/ • http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/b-c-government-approves- construction-projects-for-9b-site-c-hydro-dam-1.2458542 • http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/rio-tinto- starts-up-4-8b-upgraded-aluminum-smelter-in-kitimat-bc-150871/ • http://www.oilandgas360.com/transcanada-first-nations-sign- agreements-4-8-billion-pipeline-will-transport-2-3-bcfday-natgas-lng- canada/
  • 110. Canada GDP – May 2015
  • 111. Canada GDP – May 2015
  • 112. GDP Analysis – May 2015
  • 113. Canada GDP – May 2015
  • 114. Canada GDP – May 2015
  • 119. Retail sales by Province
  • 121. Retail sales by Segment
  • 125. Labor Analysis - Canada • Employment – All I see from your comments is opinion and no facts. It seems you call me a troll, right? The only reason people call me a troll is they cannot defend their opinion with facts, right? Let me crunch a few things based on the below links – • Since 2010 there has been 722K full-time jobs and 118K part-time jobs created in Canada. So, 86% of the new jobs are full-time. So, where is the 80% number you quoting coming from in terms of its accuracy? • The main sector of growth are the following sectors • Accommodation/food services approximately 98K • Healthcare approximately 249K – this ties to more money being spent on healthcare by provinces to support need for additional services • Professional jobs approximately 170K • Construction approximately 220K – does this not benefit skill trades and tied to the housing market being solid in Canada
  • 126. Labor Analysis - Canada • Summary: • The bulk of jobs are in areas that pay good salaries. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables- tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/labor93a-eng.htm. The only sector that would see the bulk of minimum wage would be accommodation/services. • Food/Services jobs are created due to people spending money on meals and entertainment and travel - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trad15a-eng.htm or https://www.restaurantscanada.org/Portals/0/Non- Member/2015/restaurantoutlooksurvey_2015_q1.pdf • Source: http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/13-11- 05/which_industries_are_creating_jobs.aspx • http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/13-11- 05/which_industries_are_creating_jobs.aspx • http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ10-eng.htm
  • 150. Quebec Government / Security Audits
  • 151. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 152. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 153. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 154. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 155. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 156. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 157. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 158. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 159. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 160. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 161. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 162. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 163. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 164. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 165. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 166. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 167. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 168. Canada Federal Government - Manufacturing
  • 171. Manufacturing organization / Medium • Mulcair’s comment – • Medium and Large companies would not qualified for the tax cuts and in fact would see their taxes increased.
  • 172. Manufacturing organization / Medium • Mulcair’s comment – • Medium are those entities that are $10M and up to $50M. The average medium sales value is $34M. This market segment would be ignored by Mulcair – “Over one third (37%) of mid-sized firms’ head offices are in Ontario, followed by 27% in Quebec, 19% in the Prairies, 12% in British Columbia and 6% in the Atlantic region. The top five sector in which they are active include: manufacturing (18%); retail (16%); business services (14%); accommodation and food services (13%); and construction (8%)
  • 173. Manufacturing organization / Medium • Mulcair’s comment – • Mulcair seems to be spinning his wheels as factors that drive business investment are controlled by the provinces, i.e. Hydro Rates, Regulations, new taxes (ORPP, Carbon Pricing, etc.). So, how is mulcair going to deal with local issues facing business? It seems Mulcair did not read the OCC report on hydro rates -
  • 174. Manufacturing – NDP Comments • NDP Supporter, Here is simple question for you "Defend Mulcair's policies to where the private sector supports the hiking of taxes". It is simple request that to this date has not been defended with any valid links from the Chamber of Commerce or CFIB or CAPP or CME or other trade/business association. It seems to me that Mulcair is the one that is inconsistent with his comments. Right? Mulcair tells unions he hates corporate welfare, right? http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-targets-freeloader-corporations-in-speech-to-teamsters- 1.2774959. • • Mulcair then tells he supports manufacturing, right? http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-champions-manufacturing-cambridge. Mulcair claims small business create the manufacturing jobs, right? Yet the facts show only about 1/3 of manufacturers are small business, right? NDP approach is too narrow as you support hiking corporate tax up to 22% for medium to large corporation and reducing small business tax by 2% over two years. Where is your analysis to support this will help small business - https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/061.nsf/vwapj/KSBS- PSRPE_July-Juillet2012_eng.pdf/$FILE/KSBS-PSRPE_July-Juillet2012_eng.pdf?
  • 175. Manufacturing – NDP Comments • Jason Myers who is CEO for CME has said Harper’s policies continue to support manufacturing, but no comment on what Mulcair would keep in terms of Harper’s policies, right? http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=X4NX7- CPP8J-8EJNG. FYI – There are already programs that provide seed money that are similar to innovation credit, but Mulcair appears on surface that he will rebrand those policies as NDP. • Green Technology - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-policy-analysis-green-technology-canadaa • Government Programs - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada • • Jason Myers (CME) and others have called out Mulcair for his inconsistency with corporate tax http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G- 1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HRH7K-9UE34-ACUS8 or http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs- corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/. So, are these comments lies and if so then defend why these comments are lies. All I have seen is people say “Mulcair will look at average rates with OECD”, but little else in statement. The fact is Canada ranking overall for taxation is 23 within OECD, but Mulcair never mention this ranking, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/corporation-taxation-canada- 44675640 •
  • 176. Manufacturing – NDP Comments • I have worked for many years with all aspect of business including manufacturing as such have a good understanding of the issues facing business. Business will tell Mulcair the world is very competitive and what they do not want from a government is more taxes, red tape, higher hydro rates, etc. Business will also tell you their main issues are input costs, access to capital, productivity, access to markets, and quality workers. There is very little in Mulcair’s statements that support any of those areas, especially productivity since that would mean working with union on automation and/or improvements with manufacturing process to help streamline production processes. BTW: When has union work with a business to automate the business as a way to help it compete? Unifor seems to support ORPP, but says little how the cost burden would hurt the small business owner with a tax increase - http://www.unifor.org/en/whats-new/press-room/ontario-push- broad-orpp CFIB has said ORPP will hurt small business - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5860-provincial-pension-plan-an-attack-on- small-business.html. So, who is lying? Is Mulcair/Unifor telling the truth or Is CFIB telling the truth? It seems to me business said they do support retirement options including pooling plans - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/3923-pooled-registered-pension-plans- prpps.html. Yet, no comment from Mulcair, why? Mulcair did say he supports changes to CPP, right? http://www.carp.ca/2015/05/28/mandatory-cpp-contributions-are-the-way-to-go-say-both-trudeau-and-mulcair/. How is CPP funded? It is funded by payroll taxes? So, hiking CPP would be tax to business so how is this not hurting the small business sector? • • Mulcair also mention “Dutch Disease - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/is-canada-suffering-from-dutch-disease-1.1140014” that was playing into Quebec and Ontario way to blame the whole manufacturing issues on a high dollar and not areas like hydro rates “http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ontario-businesses-call-on-province-to-curb-rising-electricity-prices-1.3142255. So, who is right? Is the Chamber of Commerce wrong? Mulcair never mention how metal fabricators companies as well as other provinces have benefit from the oil sands, why? http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2012/07/ontario-manufacturers-retool-to-take-advantage-of-a-prairie-energy-boom/. So, who is lying about benefits of oil sands? • • NDP supporters are entitled to vote for who they want as PM, but to say Mulcair is “Pro manufacturing” is fallacy! If you think I am wrong then prove me wrong which have never happen on Mulcair’s page or with his various MP/candidates.
  • 177. Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG) • It is too bad that both Ontario and PQ have drove out business or they would be bigger parts of the economic growth in Canada! Ontario should be 3-4% growth and not 2.2%! http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/focus/20150313/feature.pdf . Wait till Ontario taxpayers get the full brunt of ORPP and the carbon tax!! • Volvo used to make graders in Goderich back in 2008 and then moved the production to South Carolina (http://www.thestar.com/business/2008/10/01/volvo_plant_closure_takes_toll_on_goderich.html). One would have to think if the fundamentals were stronger in Ontario then would Volvo have left Ontario or would have considered Ontario for more investment? http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/volvo-chooses-south-carolina-for-us500m-assembly-plant- 147824/?utm_source=CMO&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CMO-EN05112015 • NDP under Mulcair seems to not understand the constitution – 92A – I suggest you check out comments from Peter Julian, Nathan Cullen, Megan Leslie, Niki Ashton, Mulcair, etc. It seems to me they NDP blames MFG losses solely on Harper, right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9M64cHqtx8 . Yet, no comment on Butts’ statement - http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank or http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HRH7K-9UE34-ACUS8
  • 178. Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)• Source: • Ontario Exports lack capacity - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/19/ontario-manufacturers-key-to-recovery/. • Debt Rating - http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2015/07/06/sp-downgrades-ontario.html • Ontario (ORPP) - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/12/jack-mintz-ontarios-really-bad-pension-scheme/ or http://www.cfib- fcei.ca/english/article/6406-ontario-budget-reissued.html • Carbon Taxes - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-18/british-columbia-to-outline-carbon-tax-policies-for-lng.html what is also not being said is the tax credits that were brought in as part of buffering the impact of the carbon tax, like lowering personal and corporate taxes or tax credits for entertainment industries, or the areas. The BC government also introduced as specific tax for LNG as way to bring in revenue and to take advantage of growth in LNG. The problem in Ontario is the tax likely will not have much tax credits. Wynne is desperate for money as such will push the carbon tax as tax grab masked as helping the environment. BTW: Ontario has no coal generation as that has been eliminated. Ontario will see costs go up by 3% on top other taxes like ORPP or hikes in hydro rates or other areas. Ontario is becoming very unaffordable for people! My above presentation explains the impact of the carbon tax/pricing in Canada. FYI - Australia scrap the tax, why? http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/australia-scraps-carbon-tax-tony-abbott-makes-his-country-a-global- pariah-after-legislation-is-passed-by-senate-9613291.html. If you want go after emitters then why not slammed the carbon tax on imports from China, India and/or USA? It seems to me India/China/USA are the biggest emitters for GHG, right? Source: ‘ • Harmonization - http://www.cp24.com/mcguinty-rejects-claim-hst-will-kill-jobs-says-it-will-create-600-000-1.454807 • Hydro Rates - http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/02/26/ontarios_big_industries_plead_for_lower_hydro_rates.html or http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank or http://www.northernlife.ca/news/localNews/2015/07/09-hydro-rates-chamber-report-sudbury.aspx • Skills Gaps - http://www.collegesontario.org/Need_to_Make_Skills_Work_Report_June_2013.pdf
  • 179. Ontario Policies (Ontario key MFG)• Other Sources / Government policies/market trends • Municipalities: http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada • KPIs for January 2015 - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-market-and-industry-indicators-for-canada-january-2015 • Internal Trade Barriers - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/internal-trade-canada • CFIB - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5299-employment-insurance-helping-workers-back-to-work.html • Programs – SDTC - http://www.orbitealuminae.com/English/investors/news/news-details/2015/REMINDER-Orbite-Selected-for-45M-Grant- From-Sustainable-Development-Technology-Canada-SDTC/default.aspx. This program was started by the Liberal party, but kept by the CPC • Programs – EDC http://www.edc.ca/EN/Knowledge-Centre/Economic-Analysis-and-Research/Documents/export-performance-monitor.pdf • Programs – small business loans – http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2015/01/22/harper-says-small-business-getting-financial-help • Natural Gas - http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/19/canada-to-reduce-taxes-for-lng-projects-stephen-harper-says/?__lsa=2753- 9c88 • Stimulus - http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-conservatives-ill-advised-to-revive-stimulus-spending-if-economy-tanks- again • Infrastructure spending - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada • Flexible manufacturing - http://www.uky.edu/~dsianita/611/fms.html
  • 180. LNG • Liquefied Natural Gas • BC – Petronas - http://www.680news.com/2015/07/25/b-c-finance-minister-heads-to-malaysia-to-discuss-petronas-lng-deal/ • Cape Breton - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bear-head-lng-corp-gets-export-approval-from-u-s-1.3159753 • • The NDP is against GHG as such where does the NDP stand on LNG Plants? https://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/industry/Energy/Documents/LNG-Advisory-GHG-V4-Web-secured.pdf. Does this mean NDP will shut down these types of investments? • • Harper introduced programs to support LNG investment as such will the NDP kill those tax policies? http://globalnews.ca/news/1840176/harper-announces-tax-breaks-for-lng-in-b-c/. • • How does Mulcair’s cap and trade system support energy sector including LNG? http://www.burnabynewsleader.com/news/environment- debate-warms-up-federal-election-1.1993912 • • It seems the NDP has yet to be coherent on their energy strategy including LNG. So, why would anyone trust the NDP if they cannot stand up for Canadian Energy? •
  • 181. LNGMPs over LNG projects • There is allot activity with LNG, especially Cape Breton and BC. • BC riding is Cullen, but no comment from him on the proposed deal with Petronas, why? You would think a project of this size that brings jobs to Cullen's area would be supported by him, right? • Rodger Cuzner is the MP over Cape Breton project, but no comment from him as well. Rodger Cuzner is Liberal member of the House of Commons • Rodger Cuzner has all kinds of time to criticize C377, but no time to promote the LNG project, why? • https://www.ibew213.org/news/conservatives-use-machiavellian-ploy-pass-anti-labour-bill Facts/figures/comments/questions on LNG Policy: Liquefied Natural Gas • BC – Petronas - http://www.680news.com/2015/07/25/b-c-finance-minister-heads-to-malaysia-to-discuss-petronas-lng-deal/ • Cape Breton - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/bear-head-lng-corp-gets-export-approval-from-u-s-1.3159753 • The NDP is against GHG as such where does the NDP stand on LNG Plants? https://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/industry/Energy/Documents/LNG-Advisory-GHG-V4-Web-secured.pdf. Does this mean NDP will shut down these types of investments? • Harper introduced programs to support LNG investment as such will the NDP kill those tax policies? http://globalnews.ca/news/1840176/harper-announces-tax-breaks-for-lng-in-b-c/ • How does Mulcair’s cap and trade system support energy sector including LNG? http://www.burnabynewsleader.com/news/environment- debate-warms-up-federal-election-1.1993912 • It seems the NDP has yet to be coherent on their energy strategy including LNG. So, why would anyone trust the NDP, especially when they are not prepared to stand up for Canadian Energy Cullen: • Prince Rupert - http://www.rupertport.com/news/releases/fairview-terminal-expansion
  • 183. BC and Resource Management
  • 184. NDP Corporate Taxation• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/ • Taxation Analysis - NDP Policy: http://xfer.ndp.ca/2013/policybook/2013-04-17-PolicyBook_E.pdf • NDP lists manufacturing: • Harper has already supports MFG via tax policies and/or grants - http://cme-mec.ca/_uploads/_media/52fqtx4b9.pdf. So, how is the NDP going to handle tax policies? NDP talks about support for business, but says nothing on existing programs like SDTC or EDC or other programs that support seed money or loans or other tax reduction, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/trade-and-investment-for-canada or http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada. • Harper has no control over provinces establishing policies like carbon pricing/taxation or provincial pension plans, regulations, etc. Yet, these aforementioned programs do more harm than good to Canada’s competitive position. • Canada already has a green economy via programs like SDTC. So, why does Mulcair not mentioned that in his statements? http://dualcitizeninc.com/GGEI- Report2014.pdf. • FTA/Investment agreements by Harper already supports huge inflow of capital to help develop the resources and/or industry in Canada - http://www.automationmag.com/industry-news/news/4429-canada-ranks-third-globally-in-foreign-direct-investment-confidence-index/. Yet, Mr. Mulcair does not mention that issue, why? • Exports – Harper’s trade deal will start to provide more opportunity for business - https://globalconnections.hsbc.com/united-kingdom/en/tools-data/trade- forecasts/ca. Yet Mulcair does not mention these deals, why? http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/canadas-trade-growth-to-return-to- pre-recession-levels-says-hsbc-148943/ • NDP says targeting employment tax credit, but is that not the same as what Harper is doing with EI cuts and/or training/skills options – So, how come this program is ignored by Mulcair - http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5299-employment-insurance-helping-workers-back-to-work.html. • NDP has transitioned programs listed, but says little how Harper has introduced programs to help business adjust to competitive pressures, why? http://saulschwartz.com/2014/12/11/the-newfoundland-fisheries-innovation-and-adjustment-fund/. NF is fighting the program as they want to use the money for other purposes. So, does the NDP support handling a blank check to the provinces without any accountability on how the money is to be spent as part of any transitioning of businesses?
  • 185. NDP Corporate Taxation • NDP has social programs like EI and CPP on the list, but is less than clear what that means in terms of policies. If there is further expansion of those programs then how will the cost be pick up? Does that mean the NDP endorses higher payroll taxes? Harper is working on training and skills development - http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1528807/harper-government-announces-support-mine-training. NDP never makes comments on these programs, why? NDP is also less than clear on education, especially at the provincial level. It is not Harper’s fault if provinces are not putting the right focus on skills and training: http://www.plant.ca/insights/canada-needs-manufacturing-strategy/. The provinces set the educational curriculum as such why is Mulcair not calling out the provinces? • Made in Canada solutions? How is Mulcair going to come up with value added work in Canada? Is Mulcair going to throw subsidies at business? Yet, Harper is focus on advance manufacturing that will lead to valued added work being created in Canada - http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=905129 http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/harper-government-supports-innovation-in-western-canada-2000280.htm • NDP has labor laws listed, but said little how provinces have control over many areas of labor law: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_labour_law or http://www.benefitscanada.com/news/ontario-to-launch-consultations-on-labour-laws-62723. So, where does the NDP stand on bringing consistency to labor laws across Canada? • Social responsibilities – Harper continues to ensure companies live up to their social responsibilities - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on- business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/ottawa-vows-to-protect-canada-brand-with-social-responsibility-policy/article21579511/ or How come Mr. Mulcair does not discussed the sustainable reporting already being done by companies? http://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/sustainability/publications/corporate- sustainability-reporting-canada-2009-en.pdf • Overall, the NDP policies is all about riding existing policies as well as putting their own spin on policies. The ironic thing is that most of the policies in discussion by the NDP have already been implemented by Harper and/or will continue to be revisited as part supporting the economy. • The NDP is also not being truthful on the cost of their programs as any changes to programs will have a costs. So, where is the fully-costed analysis from the NDP? It seems to me NDP is just throwing out policies without truly understanding either the cost impact and/or the risk to business as part implementing changes in policies! •

Editor's Notes

  1. CME and Scotiabank Economics
  2. Scotia Economics and CME
  3. 1. Source: Wards Automotive
  4. Canadian Manufacturing
  5. Canadian Manufacturing
  6. Ward Autmotive
  7. http://www.desrosiers.ca/pdfs/autowatch.pdf
  8. Source: http://www.desrosiers.ca/pdfs/autowatch.pdf Source: http://driving.ca/chrysler/auto-news/news/canadian-auto-sales-climbed-3-4-per-cent-in-february
  9. Source: http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/bns_auto.pdf
  10. Scotia bank
  11. Source: Stats Canada Exports changed their reporting to breakout key countries in October 2014. Estimated 2015 based on higher US exports (US economy is expanding)
  12. Stats Canada
  13. EDC
  14. EDC
  15. EDC
  16. PMI Index
  17. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=A7SN6-XP3D5-ABHAF
  18. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=A7SN6-XP3D5-ABHAF
  19. CME CMEhttp://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=7QWYY-AYJ7H-MCGEM
  20. CME CMEhttp://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=7QWYY-AYJ7H-MCGEM
  21. Stats Canada
  22. RBC
  23. Stats Canada
  24. Analysis Oil is off by $2B MFG has pickup $1B of the oil drop through forestry, transportation, food manufacturing, etc.
  25. Stats Canada
  26. http://www.fpac.ca/index.php/en/press-releases-full/canadas-forest-industry-outdoes-competitors-in-environmental-credentials
  27. TD Bank 1. TD normally is known to be more Liberal friendly with their post. The CEO for TD is doing asset review for LPO
  28. CME http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=4HA58-JSAHE-8XF3K&comaction=show
  29. CME http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=4HA58-JSAHE-8XF3K&comaction=show
  30. CME http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=4HA58-JSAHE-8XF3K&comaction=show
  31. CME http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=4HA58-JSAHE-8XF3K&comaction=show
  32. http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/scotiaflash20150615A.pdf
  33. http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-custom/pdf/CA_Manufacturing_ENG_1504_LITE.pdf RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI™ In association with the Supply Chain Management Association Manufacturing PMI signals slower downturn in business conditions during March Key findings: n Manufacturing PMI picked up slightly from February’s survey-record low... n ...helped by slower declines in output and new orders n Staffing levels decreased for the third month running March data indicated a further downturn in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector, but the rate of contraction moderated from the survey-record low seen in the previous month. Output, new business and employment levels all fell at slower rates than in February. Manufacturers nonetheless signalled a solid reduction in work-in-hand (but not yet completed), and inventory levels were reduced again amid concerns about the outlook for client demand. The headline figure derived from the survey is the RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), which is designed to provide timely indications of changes in prevailing business conditions in the Canadian manufacturing sector. PMI readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 signal deterioration. At 48.9 in March, up fractionally from 48.7 in February, the seasonally adjusted RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI posted below the neutral 50.0 value for the second month running. This represents the first back-to-back deterioration in overall business conditions in the survey’s four-and-a-half year history. Moreover, the average reading for Q1 as a whole (49.5) is the weakest since the survey began in late-2010. Survey respondents suggested that falling capital spending among clients in the energy sector remained the key factor weighing on new business intakes in March. That said, the latest overall decline in incoming new work was only modest and less marked than that seen in the previous month. Export sales also fell at a slower pace than in February, with some firms commenting on support from exchange rate depreciation and stronger demand from clients in the U.S. A moderate drop in overall new orders resulted in another decrease in manufacturing production in March. Moreover, the latest survey suggested a lack of pressure on operating capacity, as highlighted by a reduction in backlogs of work for the fourth consecutive month. Reduced production schedules and falling workloads contributed to more cautious staff hiring patterns in March. Latest data signalled that payroll numbers decreased for the third month running, although the rate of job shedding moderated from February’s survey-record pace. A number of manufacturers pointed to deliberate stock reduction policies at their plants in response to the uncertain business outlook. Pre-production inventories decreased at the fastest rate since November 2010, while stocks of finished goods were depleted at the most marked pace for just under three years. Volumes of input buying fell for the second month running in March, reflecting efforts to prevent inventory accumulation across the manufacturing sector. This helped alleviate supply chain pressures in March, with the latest lengthening of vendor lead times the least marked since August 2013. Average cost burdens increased at a robust pace in March, which survey respondents overwhelmingly attributed to exchange rate depreciation and a corresponding rise in imported raw material costs. That said, the overall rate of input cost inflation moderated since February, while factory gate charges also rose at a weaker pace. In association
  34. http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-custom/pdf/CA_Manufacturing_ENG_1504_LITE.pdf RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI™ In association with the Supply Chain Management Association Manufacturing PMI signals slower downturn in business conditions during March Key findings: n Manufacturing PMI picked up slightly from February’s survey-record low... n ...helped by slower declines in output and new orders n Staffing levels decreased for the third month running March data indicated a further downturn in business conditions across the Canadian manufacturing sector, but the rate of contraction moderated from the survey-record low seen in the previous month. Output, new business and employment levels all fell at slower rates than in February. Manufacturers nonetheless signalled a solid reduction in work-in-hand (but not yet completed), and inventory levels were reduced again amid concerns about the outlook for client demand. The headline figure derived from the survey is the RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™), which is designed to provide timely indications of changes in prevailing business conditions in the Canadian manufacturing sector. PMI readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 signal deterioration. At 48.9 in March, up fractionally from 48.7 in February, the seasonally adjusted RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI posted below the neutral 50.0 value for the second month running. This represents the first back-to-back deterioration in overall business conditions in the survey’s four-and-a-half year history. Moreover, the average reading for Q1 as a whole (49.5) is the weakest since the survey began in late-2010. Survey respondents suggested that falling capital spending among clients in the energy sector remained the key factor weighing on new business intakes in March. That said, the latest overall decline in incoming new work was only modest and less marked than that seen in the previous month. Export sales also fell at a slower pace than in February, with some firms commenting on support from exchange rate depreciation and stronger demand from clients in the U.S. A moderate drop in overall new orders resulted in another decrease in manufacturing production in March. Moreover, the latest survey suggested a lack of pressure on operating capacity, as highlighted by a reduction in backlogs of work for the fourth consecutive month. Reduced production schedules and falling workloads contributed to more cautious staff hiring patterns in March. Latest data signalled that payroll numbers decreased for the third month running, although the rate of job shedding moderated from February’s survey-record pace. A number of manufacturers pointed to deliberate stock reduction policies at their plants in response to the uncertain business outlook. Pre-production inventories decreased at the fastest rate since November 2010, while stocks of finished goods were depleted at the most marked pace for just under three years. Volumes of input buying fell for the second month running in March, reflecting efforts to prevent inventory accumulation across the manufacturing sector. This helped alleviate supply chain pressures in March, with the latest lengthening of vendor lead times the least marked since August 2013. Average cost burdens increased at a robust pace in March, which survey respondents overwhelmingly attributed to exchange rate depreciation and a corresponding rise in imported raw material costs. That said, the overall rate of input cost inflation moderated since February, while factory gate charges also rose at a weaker pace. In association
  35. Harvard Business Review
  36. Chamber of Commerce
  37. Chamber of Commerce
  38. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/strong-freight-volume-adds-9-in-june-dat-freight-index-300111306.html
  39. Source: Department of Transpohttp://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/5/13/DOTreleasesMarchfreightnumbers.aspxrt - United States http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/programs/freight_transportation/
  40. http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/7/14/FTRtruckingindexforMaydrops25to3-yearlow.aspx
  41. http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/6/18/Trailerordersdown29percentyear-over-yearFTRsays.aspx
  42. CMC and Bureau of Stats
  43. BMO
  44. BMO
  45. http://www.farm-equipment.com/articles/11762-global-ag-equipment-sales-forecast-to-decline-by-10
  46. http://www.farm-equipment.com/articles/11762-global-ag-equipment-sales-forecast-to-decline-by-10
  47. http://www.farm-equipment.com/articles/11762-global-ag-equipment-sales-forecast-to-decline-by-10
  48. http://www.farm-equipment.com/articles/11762-global-ag-equipment-sales-forecast-to-decline-by-10
  49. Source: http://www.aem.org/MarketInfo/Stats/Reports/AgTCR-US/
  50. https://www.aem.org/News/Advisors/AEM/?HL=2015_Canadian_Budget_Encourages_Manufacturing_Investment&A=1732
  51. EIS
  52. EIS
  53. http://americanmachinist.com/news/service-centers-shipments-mixed-inventories-rising
  54. BMO Economics
  55. BMO Economics
  56. BMO Economics
  57. BMO Economics
  58. BMO Economics
  59. BMO Economics
  60. BMO Economics
  61. http://www.mining.com/web/canadas-resource-industry-calls-for-government-collaboration-on-three-key-challenges/
  62. http://www.mining.com/web/canadas-resource-industry-calls-for-government-collaboration-on-three-key-challenges/
  63. Mining Industry
  64. Mining Investing
  65. PWC
  66. http://copperinvestingnews.com/24630-china-aluminum-wiring-copper-prices.html
  67. Baker Hughes
  68. http://www.cjournal.info/2015/07/04/union-shuts-down-last-remaining-oil-refinery-strike-in-the-us-2/
  69. http://www.cjournal.info/2015/07/04/union-shuts-down-last-remaining-oil-refinery-strike-in-the-us-2/
  70. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/
  71. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/
  72. http://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/reports_presentations/eia_what_drives_crude_oil_prices.pdf
  73. http://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/reports_presentations/eia_what_drives_crude_oil_prices.pdf
  74. Stats canada
  75. http://www.amtonline.org/amt_items/USMTO_Jan15.pdf
  76. http://www.amtonline.org/newsroom
  77. http://www.robotics.org/content-detail.cfm/Industrial-Robotics-News/North-American-Robotics-Market-Continues-Breaking-Records-with-Strongest-Opening-Quarter-Ever/content_id/5367
  78. http://www.thetrucker.com/News/Stories/2015/1/12/Decembersales2ndbestmonthin21stcentury.aspx http://trailer-bodybuilders.com/chassis/medium-and-heavy-truck-sales-6-april
  79. http://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html
  80. http://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html
  81. http://americanmachinist.com/news/midyear-steel-output-declining-worldwide
  82. http://americanmachinist.com/news/midyear-steel-output-declining-worldwide
  83. http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4871463-from-steel-giant-to-this-how-did-we-get-here-/
  84. http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4871463-from-steel-giant-to-this-how-did-we-get-here-/
  85. Bloomberg and Renewable Energy
  86. Source: cleantech
  87. Source: cleantech
  88. http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/06/17/world/asia/ap-as-asia-clean-energy.html?_r=0
  89. US private sector pledges $4B for climate change http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/white-house-announces-4b-in-private-sector-pledges-to-address-climate-change-1.2424799
  90. BC has a new carbon tax on Liquefied Natural Gas: http://www.pwc.com/ca/en/tax/budgets/2014/british-columbia-unveils-its-liquefied-natural-gas-tax.jhtml
  91. BMO Economics
  92. BMO Economics
  93. Stats Canada **** minor differences due to rounding and/or how the rollup may include additional information no reflected in the various groups
  94. Stats Canada **** minor differences due to rounding and/or how the rollup may include additional information no reflected in the various groups
  95. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=CQGTG-MU67P-ENEP9&comaction=show
  96. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=CQGTG-MU67P-ENEP9&comaction=show
  97. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=CQGTG-MU67P-ENEP9&comaction=show
  98. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=CQGTG-MU67P-ENEP9&comaction=show
  99. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150320/t150320b001-eng.htm
  100. Source: Scotia Bank
  101. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily
  102. Scotia Bank
  103. BMO
  104. BMO
  105. RBC
  106. Stats Canada
  107. Scotiabank
  108. Scotiabank
  109. Scotiabank
  110. Scotiabank
  111. Scotiabank
  112. US Economy
  113. BMO Economics
  114. BMO Economics
  115. Scotia Bank
  116. Scotia Bank
  117. CIBC Economics
  118. CIBC Economics
  119. FIREapps
  120. Scotiabank
  121. Scotiabank
  122. CIBC
  123. CIBC
  124. CIBC
  125. CIBC
  126. Government of Canada
  127. http://www.canadianconsultingengineer.com/engineering/quebec-firms-must-have-security-audit/1003400454/
  128. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  129. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  130. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  131. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  132. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  133. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  134. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  135. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  136. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  137. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  138. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  139. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  140. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  141. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  142. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  143. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=GX48H-89N5S-FCNSA&comaction=show
  144. http://mb.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=XE8MT-GCZX2-KAD9G&comaction=show&cid=3CWP8-FKASM-JYNFE
  145. http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&cid=PQFQQ-MDUBQ-M8NF6&comaction=show
  146. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/21/ndps-thomas-mulcair-says-there-is-hope-for-manufacturing-sector.html
  147. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/21/ndps-thomas-mulcair-says-there-is-hope-for-manufacturing-sector.html And BDO / CME http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-champions-manufacturing-cambridge
  148. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/21/ndps-thomas-mulcair-says-there-is-hope-for-manufacturing-sector.html And BDO / CME http://www.ndp.ca/news/mulcair-champions-manufacturing-Cambridge http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/07/08/ontario-chamber-of-commerce-calls-for-cheaper-hydro.html
  149. Government of Canada
  150. http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/149039-149039/
  151. NDP leader Mulcair’s corporate tax policy needs clarity A parade of public errors regarding the corporate
  152. NDP Tax polcies
  153. http://taxfoundation.org/article/2014-international-tax-competitiveness-index