Merchandise Trade Key Sectors Trade Deficits/Surplus Trade Partners Conclusion

1. Merchandise Trade – Canada
– April 2016
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA

2. • This presentation is one perspective on Canada Merchandise Trade

3. Paul Young - Presenter
Bio
• CPA/CGA
• 25 years of experience in Academia, Industry and Financial solutions
• Youtube Channel -
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAArky1bAXPSuV2NLtUnyLg

4. Agenda
• Merchandise Trade
• Key Sectors
• Trade Deficits/Surplus
• Trade Partners
• Conclusion

5. Merchandise Trade
• Summary
• Canada's trade deficit narrowed to $2.9 billion in April ($3.2 billion in March), as a 1.1%
increase in exports outpaced a 0.9% rise in imports. In real terms, exports were up by a more
modest 0.5% while imports rose 0.8%.
• The growth in exports was driven by a few industries. These included industrial machinery,
equipment and parts (+10.5%), which showed the largest growth in 15 years, and energy
products (+7.6%) – although this was largely a price story, with volumes down 1.9%.
Providing some offset, exports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts slid
10% during the month, following sharp increases during the two months prior.
• Imports were driven up by a 52% surge in aircraft and other transportation equipment and
parts, as well as a rise in energy products (+5.9%), which again was due to higher prices, as
import volumes fell. On the flipside, imports of industrial machinery and equipment fell for a
fourth straight month to the lowest level since March 2014.
• Canada's trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed slightly in April, as imports (+3.0%) rose by
more than exports (+2.3%). Meanwhile, the trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed
thanks to higher exports to countries other than Canada's main trading partners.

6. Merchandise Trade by Sector Highlights
• Exports are forecasted
to hit $510B for 2016
down from $515B in
2015
• Forestry
• Strong US Housing
Starts
• Oil Sector
• Fort MacMurray
Fire
• Low Commodity
Prices
• Scale of back of
Capital

7. Trade Surplus/Deficit • Imports from countries other than the
United States fell 3.0% to $15.0 billion.
• In April, there were lower imports
from Germany (-$174 million) and
South Korea (-$170 million). Exports to
countries other than the United States
decreased 0.6% to $10.5 billion.
• Lower exports to the United Kingdom
(-$276 million) and Spain (-$105
million) were mostly offset by higher
exports to countries other than
Canada’s principal trading partners
(+$268 million) and to Mexico (+$105
million).
• As a result, Canada’s trade deficit with
countries other than the United States
narrowed from $4.9 billion in March to
$4.5 billion in April.

8. Trade by Province

9. Conclusion
• Oil continues to struggle to get above $50/Barrel
• Alberta lost oil production due to Fort McMurray Fire
• Softwood Lumber Agreement (old agreement has expired)
• New Liberal Government (what is there stance on trade)
• Government Policies
• Environmental Assessments
• Clean Technology Investment
• Infrastructure funding
• Money needed to expand ports like Montreal, Sydney, Saint John, Winnipeg, Prince
Rupert, etc
• Pipelines, rails, bridges, roads , etc investment to support moving goods to market