This presentation will provide information on Retail Sales for Canada. The information in the presentation will cover areas like currency, volume, provincial spending as well as the various market segments.

1. Retail Sales – Canada –
December 2015
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA

2. Agenda
• Overview
• Issues
• Consumer Price Index
• Retail Spending

3. Overview
• All of the decline was due to softer sales volumes (-2.3% m/m) as prices ticked higher. That
more than reverses the 1.4% rise in sales volumes the prior month.
• For the quarter as a whole, the volume of retail sales was little changed in Q4 with a rise of
only 0.8% q/q at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate.
• It’s important to consider the role played by volatility in retail sales over the course of
2015. For the year as a whole, the picture was fairly bright as sales volumes were up 7.1%
y/y. It’s possible that Q4 weakness just unwound some of the acceleration in Q3 when
sales volumes grew by 3.3% for the strongest gain of the year.
• Breadth was also poor in December. Weakness was widespread as sales fell at auto dealers
(-3.9% m/m), furniture stores (-0.9%), electronics and appliance stores (-3%), building
material and garden equipment stores (-0.5%), food and beverage stores (-1.2%) and
health/personal care stores (-2.4%). Gas stations were down 1.1% which is not a notable
surprise given lower gasoline prices. Sales also fell at clothing and accessories outlets (-
3.6%) and by golly even shoe sales got smoked.
• By province, only PEI was higher and barely so (+0.1% m/m). The biggest declines were in
Alberta (-3.1%) and NB (-3.3%) but sales also fell at 2-handled clips in Ontario and Quebec.

4. Issues – Canada Retail Sales
• Low Canadian Dollar
• Slow Economy
• Potential Taxation issues (ORPP, Carbon Taxation)

5. Consumer Price Index

6. Canada Dollar

7. Retail Spending

8. Retail Spending