Predictive Analysis - Using Insight-informed Data to Determine Factors Drivin...
Analysis of us 1
1. ANALYSIS OF U.S. Consumer
Expenditure
Records Study
PRESENTED BY
PARTH SHAH
ROLL NO: 69
4/24/2015 1
PREPARED BY -
EMILY GEISEN
ASHLEY RICHARDS
CHARLES STROHM
2. Abstract
The U.S. Consumer Expenditure Quarterly
Interview Survey (CEQ) is a monthly survey
developed to capture continuous information
about the buying habits of American
consumers.
The CEQ is a long, complex survey that
requires a high level of burden for the
respondent.
3. Objective of the study
Main objective
- Evaluate the availability and feasibility of
respondent records.
Other objective
- Measure the direction and magnitude of
measurement error.
- Understand respondents’ interview experience.
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4. Methodology
The Census Bureau contracted with RTI International and Avar
Consulting, Inc. to conduct the Consumer Expenditure Records
(CE Records) study to explore these objectives.
The RTI team conducted interviews with 115 participants who
varied with respect to several demographic characteristics:
education level, employment status, age, and household income.
Each participant completed two interviews within a four- to
seven-day period. In the first interview, participants completed
nine sections of the standard CEQ instrument and answered a
short set of debriefing questions about their experience with the
CEQ.
5. Conti…
After this first interview, participants were asked to collect
records (e.g., receipts, bank statements, credit card bills) for
the expenditures asked about during the interview, to be used
in the second interview.
The second interview, conducted four to seven days after the
first interview, used a semi-structured interview format that
focused on matching the self-reported expenditures from the
first interview with records provided by the participants.
All interviews were conducted using computer-assisted
personal interviewing (CAPI) in the participants’ homes.
Participants were compensated $40 for completing the first
interview and $60 for completing the second interview.a
6. Purpose
• The purpose of the CE Records Study was to develop research
procedures and to conduct interviews and analyses to address the
following three objectives identified by the CE surveys team:
1. to gain an understanding of the availability of respondent records
and the extent to which the information in those records aligns
with the time frame, level of detail, and categories of expenditures
asked about in the CEQ,
2. to evaluate the direction and magnitude of measurement error by
comparing information on available records to the expenditures
reported by the respondent based only on recall, and
3. to gain insight into the respondent's interview experience during
the CEQ.
7. Research design
• The research is objective based and
exploratory research.
• Sample Size - 115
• The study out in geographic location of
Washington region
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8. Participant characteristics Participants
Participant education level
< HS Diploma 19
HS Diploma or some college 42
College or higher education 54
income
Less than $30,000 49
$30,000 - $60,000 35
More than $60,000 31
Participant employment status
Not employed – looking for work 21
Not employed – not looking for work 40
Employed part-time 27
Employed full-time 27
Participant age
18-25 27
26-60 59
>60 29
TOTAL 115
9. Sources of Data collection
• Primary data: Through interview with the
participants.
• Secondary data: Through record of bills,
receipts, pay sleeps etc...
Method of Data collection:
All interviews were conducted
using computer-assisted personal interviewing
(CAPI) in the participants’ homes.
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10. Hypothesis
• H0 = All the Data given by the participants are
accurate and feasible.
• H1 = Data are not feasible and different from
the record.
• Testing the data with the chi-square test.
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11. Interview 1
• In the first interview Respondents are asked to report
on household expenditures for the past month.
• The procedures used to conduct Interview 1 for the
CE Records Study were identical to the procedures
used in the actual CEQ, with the exception that at
the end of Interview 1, participants were asked a
series of debriefing questions.
• The average length of time to administer Interview 1,
including the debriefing, was 60 minutes ranging
from 13 minutes to 134 minutes.
12. Interview 2 – Records Matching
• RTI International developed the instrument for the second interview
to read-in the responses from Interview 1, which was conducted four
to seven days earlier. For each expenditure reported in Interview 1,
the FR documented whether a record was available. If a record was
not available, the FR asked the participant how he or she came up
with the answer provided in Interview 1 and why a record was not
available (e.g., did not keep it, never received one, lost it).
• If the record did not match the amount reported in Interview 1, as
determined by the criteria described above, the FRs asked the
participants to provide any additional information about why the
record did not match (e.g., it was an unusual purchase, someone else
in the household purchased the item, participant guessed the
amount).
13. Accuracy of Home Furnishings Report
Income level of
participants
Expected(E) value
Match with record
observed(o) value
Actually match
with record
Less than $30,000 12 8
$30,000 - $60,000 19 10
More than $60,000 21 9
TOTAL 62 27
chi-square observed 12.45
D.F. 2
significance level 5%
chi-square Critical 5.991
14. Interpretation
Here, X2 obs value is far greater than the X2
critical value, so we have strong evidence to
reject the null hypothesis.
As per the research we can say that most of the
Data are without records.
Also which data have record some of them didn't
match with the detail given by participants…
so, we are rejecting the null hypothesis and
accepting the alter one.
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16. Limitations
• The CE Records study is an exploratory research study
involving a non-probability sample of 115 participants.
Therefore the results of this study may not be
generalizable to the full CEQ respondent population
• Participants received $100 for taking part in this study.
Typical CEQ respondents, on the hand, do not receive
any incentives. As a result, participants in this study
may be more willing than the average CEQ participant
to take the time to collect receipts and records.
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17. Source of report
• http://www.bls.gov/cex/ce
_statpapers.htm
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