Destination Oregon: Migration and Economic Growth
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State Economist Mark McMullen delivers a speech on one of Oregon's greatest advantages: migration. In both good times and bad, people want to live in the state. On net this is fundamentally fantastic for Oregon and the local economy. Migration trends are not just a Portland, or metro Oregon, phenomenon either. Much of rural Oregon continues to see an influx of migrants from out of state or from abroad.
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Destination Oregon: Migration and Economic Growth
- 1. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Destination Oregon: Migration and Economic Growth Oregon Economic Forum October 16th, 2014 Mark McMullen State Economist
- 2. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Migration to Oregon: Friend or Foe? 2 “I just got really irritated… I’m trying to build the economic diversification of the state, and I keep hearing this: “Aren’t you the guys that want us to visit but don’t stay”?” Atiyeh: “ I want to go down there and blow up that damn sign” Cabinet: “Yeah, yeah, okay, governor.” Atiyeh: “No! I want to put dynamite under that thing and blow it up.” Cabinet: “You can’t do that, governor.” Atiyeh: “Yes, I can. I want to blow that thing up.” “We want you to visit... Come again and again. But for heaven’s sake, don’t move here to live. Or if you do have to move in to live, don’t tell any of your neighbors where you are going.” Governor Tom McCall Governor Vic Atiyeh Sources: Oregon Historical Society, OPB/Mike Sherk “The interests of Oregon for today and in the future must be protected from grasping wastrels of the land... unlimited and unregulated growth leads inexorably to a lowered quality of life.” “Oregon, queen bee though she is, is not yet ready for the swarm”.
- 3. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Deaths Now Outnumber Births In Many Counties Washington Benton Jefferson Morrow Malheur Deschutes Lane Lake Umatilla Douglas Yamhill Linn Klamath Marion Clackamas Crook Columbia Oregon Harney Polk Jackson Wasco Union Coos Tillamook Baker Wallowa Grant Josephine Multnomah Clatsop Curry Hood River Lincoln Gilliam Sherman Wheeler 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 1980 2010 Ratio of Births to Deaths: Oregon Counties
- 4. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Population Share by Age, 2015 Sources: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Root-Setting Years U.S. Oregon ex PDX Portland Metro Young Workers Choose Portland 4
- 5. Baker Benton Clackamas Clatsop Columbia Coos Crook Curry Deschutes Douglas Gilliam Grant Harney Hood River Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klamath Lake Lane Lincoln Linn Malheur Marion Morrow Multnomah Polk Sherman Tillamook Umatilla Union Wallowa Wasco Washington Wheeler Yamhill -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Net Migration from Other States Net Migration from Other Areas in Oregon Net Migration of Tax Filers: Number per 1,000 Tax Returns, 1995-2011 Losses to otherstates and other Oregon counties Losses to Oregon counties outstrip gains from otherstates Gainsfrom other states outstrip losses to Oregon counties Gainsfrom Oregon counties outstrip losses to other states Gainsfrom other states and other Oregon counties Losses to other states outstripgainsfrom Oregon counties
- 6. Clatsop Coos Douglas Jackson Jefferson Josephine Klamath Lane Lincoln Tillamook -5 0 5 10 15 20 -10 -5 0 5 Net Migration from Other States Net Migration from Other Areas in Oregon Net Migration of Tax Filers: Number per 1,000 Tax Returns, 1995-2011 Losses to Oregon counties outstrip gains from otherstates Gainsfrom other states outstrip losses to Oregon counties Gainsfrom other states and other Oregon counties
- 7. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS One of These Things Is Not Like the Others 7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Corn Belt Rust Belt Timber Belt Corn Belt Rust Belt Timber Belt Manufacturing and Farm JobsShare of Total Population Growth1980-2012 Weathering Shocks 1980 2012
- 8. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Retirees and Household Wealth 8 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Health Care CashContributions Share of Total Expenditures Older Households Spend More On Health and Cash Contributions 55-64 65-74 75+ Source: BLS, Consumer Expenditure Survey $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 Expenditures Wealth Household Finances for Top Half of the Income Distribution 50-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute
- 9. Clackamas Columbia Crook Deschutes Gilliam Linn Marion Multnomah Polk Sherman Washington Wheeler Yamhill -5 0 5 10 15 20 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Net Migration from Other States Net Migration from Other Areas in Oregon Net Migration of Tax Filers: Number per 1,000 Tax Returns, 1995-2011 Gainsfrom other states outstrip losses to Oregon counties Gainsfrom Oregon counties outstrip losses to other states Gainsfrom other states and other Oregon counties
- 10. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Oregon’s Brain Gain 10 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Less than HS GraduatedHS SomeCollege Associate'sDegree GraduatedCollege Masters, Prof or PhD Estimated Odds Ratios: Relative Probability of Moving Compared to Someone Without a Degree In Migrants Out Migrants Logit Model Based on 2010-2012 ACS Data
- 11. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Portland Is Still a Magnet for Young Workers 11 Austin Buffalo Charlotte Dallas Denver Detroit Hartford Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Miami Minneapolis New Orleans New York Oklahoma City Phoenix Portland Raleigh Riverside San Antonio San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle Tampa DC Top 50 Avg 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 25-34 Years Old Ratio of In-migrants to Out-migrants Bachelor's or Higher Ratio of In-migrants to Out-migrants The Young and Educated Top 50 MSAs, ACS 2010-12
- 12. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Gains From CA Swamp Losses to WA 12 $(200) $(100) $- $100 $200 $300 $400 1992 1997 2002 2007 Portland Tri-County Area, $ millions AGI Lost to WA AGI Gained From CA Net $(200) $(100) $- $100 $200 $300 $400 1992 1997 2002 2007 Rest of Oregon, $ millions AGI Lost to WA AGI Gained From CA Net Net Adjusted Gross Income Among Migrants Source: IRS
- 13. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Where Young People Come to Retire? 13 Logit Model Based on 2010-2012 ACS Data 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Employed Unemployed Not In Labor Force Estimated Odds Ratios: Relative Probability of Moving Compared to Employed Adults In Migrants Out Migrants
- 14. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The Outlook 14 -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Annual Oregon Population Growth Natural Increase Net Migration Growth Rate, rhs Forecast -->
- 15. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 15 For More Information Standard Contact: 155 Cottage Street NE Salem, OR 97301 (503) 378-3405 oea.info@state.or.us www.oregon.gov/das/oea Social Media: www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis