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Metro Atlanta and
Buckhead
Demographics and Economics
Mike Alexander, AICP
Research and Analytics Division Manager
Atlanta...
First a TEST!!!
So You
Think
You
Know
the City
of
Atlanta?
Which Area Added
The Most Population,
2000-2010?
This Southwest Atlanta tract has
added the most people with 4,267.
Which Area Has The
Highest
Concentration of
Those With At Least A
Bachelor’s Degree?
91.8% of the population have at
least a Bachelor’s Degree, in this
tract of South Buckhead.
Which Area Has The
Highest
Concentration of
Children Under 5
Years Old?
This Thomasville Heights tract has
20% of the population at age 5 or
younger.
Which Area Has The
Highest
Concentration of
People Over 65
Years Old?
The highest concentration of people
over age 65 is in this Buckhead
tract, with 27.3%.
Which Area Has
The Most
Children Added
Under Age 5?
The highest number of children
under 5 added is in this Western
tract, with 386.
Which Area Has
The Most People
For Ages 65 and
Over?
This Buckhead tract has 2,150
people over age 65, the highest in
the city.
Which Area of
Atlanta Has The
Highest Median
Household Income?
Atlanta’s highest median household
is $150,631 in this Buckhead tract.
How Have
Metropolitan
Atlanta and
Buckhead Grown?
Southeastern Population
Growth 2000 to 2010
County Net Change
Red to Tan = Growth
Blues = Loss Source: US Census
Metropolitan Growth 2000 to 2010
Source : Census Bureau, 28-County MSA
Total Hispanic Black White Total Hispanic Black Whi...
Buckhead Population Growth
66,772
77,787
80,465
33,930
40,313
41,564
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,0...
Since 2010
Source: US Census Estimates
A Lot of Growth
Diversity
50.7 54.3
61.1
54.7
50.1
67.9
39.5
47.8
31.8 34.7
48.2
52.8
64.7
58.1
36.5
67.1
48.7
32.1
7.4
24.0
17.2
15.0
23.0
16.8
10....
-100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Atlanta
Spalding
Rockdale
Fayette
Clayton
Walton
Barrow
...
The Buckhead Superdistrict
2013 Population by Race Comparison
11.6%
0.1%
0.3%
2.6%
5.0%
4.9%
32.4%
54.7%
7.4%
0.0%
0.2%
2.1%
3.1%
4.5%
10.6%
79.5%
0....
Distribution of Race-2010
More than 200,000 Gwinnett
residents were born in a
different country!
Source: U.S. Census
Age
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 - 4
5-9
10-14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 - 84
85+
Buckhead Atlanta Metro...
20 County Area Compared to Nation
2010 Census 20-County Area
Baby Boomers:
Born between
1944 and 1963
GI and Silent
Genera...
Where Millennials Live 2010 (AGE 15-30)
Health
Oh Yeah… Place Matters!
Source: County Health Rankings
Male Change in Life Expectancy
Source: County Health Rankings
1999 to 2009
Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.o...
2009 Male Life Expectancy
Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/
2009 Female Life Expectancy
Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/
Death Rates: Major Cardiovascular Diseases
Source: GA Dept. of Health (OASIS)
Education
34.1
46.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Percent
Metropolitan Statistical Area
HS-
BAC+
20 Largest MSAs: Educational Attai...
US: 30.9%
51
Source: American Community Survey 2007-2011
Educational Attainment
Buckhead (SD) 75% with Bachelor’s Degree
16
4 5
15 20
10 7 8
17 13 11 9 14 12 19
6 1 3
18
2
2
16 18
9 1 8
5
13 3 10 12 15 6 11
7
14 19
20
4
17
11 12
15 7
9 5
10
19...
High School Graduation Rates
88.4
86.27
82.32
81.9
78.23
76.21
76.01
74.85
74.82
74.74
73.35
72.73
72.35
70.98
70.05
68.53...
Socioeconomics
2013 Income Comparison
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
<$15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$5...
Atlanta MSA and the Nation
Source: BLS, CES SAE series
Recent Atlanta MSA Trends by Industry MAY
Source: BLS, CES,
Recent Atlanta MSA Trends by Industry August
Source: BLS, CES,
Large Metros Employment Change
Large Metros Employment Change
Source: BLS CES SAE
Source: Zillow
Foreclosures Shifting 2007
PSQM
Source : Equity
Depot 66
Source :
Equity Depot 67
Foreclosures Shifting 2010
PSQM
Source : Equity
Depot
68
Foreclosures Shifting 2012
PSQM
Total Employment Change
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2010-2012
-30,000
-20,000
-10,...
10-County Employment Change
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Professional and Technical Services
Retail Trade
State and Local
...
Employment Change 2010 to 2012
Buckhead added
7,510 jobs
3rd Superdistrict in
Job Change
N Fulton and N
DeKalb 1-2
96, 471...
Employment Performance Comparison
3.86%
0.52%
-5.94%
-2.78%
4.44%
6.43%
-3.73%
-5.51%
1.14%
8.44%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2....
Buckhead Employment Sectors (2011)
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Public Administration
Manufacturing
Arts, Enter...
Commuting Patterns to work in Buckhead
Where Residents go to
Work
Where Workers Live
How Will We
Change?
New Census Projections
77
South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast
to grow the most.
South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast
to grow the most.
South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast
to grow the most.
South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast
to grow the most.
Population Growth Comparison
United States 20-County Area Rest of Georgia
(139 Counties)
Source: Plan 2040 Forecasts, 2009
20-County Population
Trends: Draft
Forecast 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2015 2020 20...
Region’s Aging Profile
DRAFT Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 6...
DRAFT Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
87
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1990
1991
1992
1993...
More Diverse
71%
60%
50%
47%
43%
40%
25%
28%
32% 31% 31% 30%
2%
4%
7% 8% 9% 9%
2%
7%
11%
14%
17%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50...
20-County
Forecast
Area
24% 24%
20%
68% 67%
60%
8% 9%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2000 2005 2010 ...
Who is
(was)
moving to
Atlanta?
County Growth
Buckhead
2040
Population
113,961
44%
Increase
20-County Employment Trends:
Draft Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
201...
20-County Employment Change by Sector:
Draft Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 ...
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Federal Civilian
Information
Arts, Entertai...
Buckhead
2040
Employme
nt 135,272
54%
Increase
Metro Atlanta and
Cobb County
Demographics and Economics
for the
Traton Homes 2013
Mike Alexander, AICP
Research and Analy...
THIS IS A
VIDEO MAKE
IT PLAY BY
CLICKING
Employmen
t
Blue
Served
by Heavy
Rail Transit
Urbanized Area 1950 to
2010
Source: US Census, ARC
Growth Creates Demand for Infrastructure: Are We
Prepared? TRANSIT (same scale, yellow transit lines and red transit stops)
Meeting Transportation
Challenges
Source: Plan2040
“If you want to be a leader, you’ve got to be a reader.”
David Noebel, religious leader and writer (1937–)
Questions?
Mike Alexander, AICP
Research and Analytics Division Manager
Atlanta Regional Commission
malexander@atlantaregi...
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013
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Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013

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Livable Buckhead, in partnership with The Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), presented comprehensive demographic and growth trends analysis for the Atlanta Region and Buckhead. ARC Research Division Chief, Mike Alexander, provided information on population growth, employment forecasts, job assessments, housing, transportation and more.

Published in: Data & Analytics
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Trends in the Atlanta Region and Buckhead — Demographics and Growth Seminar – 2013

  1. 1. Metro Atlanta and Buckhead Demographics and Economics Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission malexander@atlantaregional.com
  2. 2. First a TEST!!!
  3. 3. So You Think You Know the City of Atlanta?
  4. 4. Which Area Added The Most Population, 2000-2010?
  5. 5. This Southwest Atlanta tract has added the most people with 4,267.
  6. 6. Which Area Has The Highest Concentration of Those With At Least A Bachelor’s Degree?
  7. 7. 91.8% of the population have at least a Bachelor’s Degree, in this tract of South Buckhead.
  8. 8. Which Area Has The Highest Concentration of Children Under 5 Years Old?
  9. 9. This Thomasville Heights tract has 20% of the population at age 5 or younger.
  10. 10. Which Area Has The Highest Concentration of People Over 65 Years Old?
  11. 11. The highest concentration of people over age 65 is in this Buckhead tract, with 27.3%.
  12. 12. Which Area Has The Most Children Added Under Age 5?
  13. 13. The highest number of children under 5 added is in this Western tract, with 386.
  14. 14. Which Area Has The Most People For Ages 65 and Over?
  15. 15. This Buckhead tract has 2,150 people over age 65, the highest in the city.
  16. 16. Which Area of Atlanta Has The Highest Median Household Income?
  17. 17. Atlanta’s highest median household is $150,631 in this Buckhead tract.
  18. 18. How Have Metropolitan Atlanta and Buckhead Grown?
  19. 19. Southeastern Population Growth 2000 to 2010 County Net Change Red to Tan = Growth Blues = Loss Source: US Census
  20. 20. Metropolitan Growth 2000 to 2010 Source : Census Bureau, 28-County MSA Total Hispanic Black White Total Hispanic Black White Houston 1,231,393 745,935 214,928 85,643 Tampa, FL 387,246 203,566 72,970 57,482 Dallas 1,210,229 634,449 233,890 158,283 Chicago 362,789 462,377 (58,255) (193,010) Atlanta 1,020,879 276,993 473,493 106,267 Minneapolis 311,027 77,162 83,464 63,623 Riverside 970,030 767,440 58,919 5,613 San Diego 281,480 240,383 (7,887) (48,786) Phoenix 941,011 418,706 80,318 320,370 Philadelphia 278,196 181,963 93,161 (140,551) Washington 785,987 341,107 155,648 58,019 Boston 215,058 128,911 54,009 (136,692) New York 574,107 760,983 (67,709) (558,563) San Francisco 211,651 205,545 (37,595) (185,650) Miami 557,071 608,865 191,658 (267,991) Baltimore 157,495 72,425 74,124 (66,652) Los Angeles 463,210 583,070 (85,025) (361,772) St. Louis 114,209 31,582 36,764 7,349 Seattle 395,931 147,023 36,061 27,015 Detroit (156,307) 41,147 (37,603) (194,535) Metro 2000-2010 Population Change MSA Metro 2000-2010 Population Change MSA
  21. 21. Buckhead Population Growth 66,772 77,787 80,465 33,930 40,313 41,564 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 2000 2010 2013 Households Population Source: ESRI Demographics
  22. 22. Since 2010 Source: US Census Estimates
  23. 23. A Lot of Growth
  24. 24. Diversity
  25. 25. 50.7 54.3 61.1 54.7 50.1 67.9 39.5 47.8 31.8 34.7 48.2 52.8 64.7 58.1 36.5 67.1 48.7 32.1 7.4 24.0 17.2 15.0 23.0 16.8 10.6 6.9 19.9 16.3 15.4 20.7 5.2 7.6 11.6 25.4 6.4 6.4 4.7 6.8 7.0 5.0 7.8 12.0 16.4 3.6 11.7 6.0 6.3 6.6 8.3 4.5 11.4 10.8 31.9 10.2 21.2 28.0 4.2 36.0 29.6 44.8 41.8 23.8 25.9 8.3 30.1 47.7 16.8 14.4 Metropolitan Ethnicity As a % of Total Population 2010 Census Atlanta has a relatively small share of Hispanic Population compared to other metro areas. White African American Other Hispanic Source : Census Bureau 2010 Census
  26. 26. -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Atlanta Spalding Rockdale Fayette Clayton Walton Barrow Carroll Bartow DeKalb Newton Coweta Douglas Hall Paulding Cherokee Forsyth Cobb Henry Fulton Gwinnett White Black Asian Hispanic Other County Race & Ethnicity Change, 2000 – 2010 (US Census)
  27. 27. The Buckhead Superdistrict
  28. 28. 2013 Population by Race Comparison 11.6% 0.1% 0.3% 2.6% 5.0% 4.9% 32.4% 54.7% 7.4% 0.0% 0.2% 2.1% 3.1% 4.5% 10.6% 79.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% Hispanic Origin (Any Race) Pacific Islander Alone American Indian Alone Two or More Races Some Other Race Alone Asian Alone Black Alone White Alone Buckhead Atlanta Metro Source: ESRI Demographics
  29. 29. Distribution of Race-2010 More than 200,000 Gwinnett residents were born in a different country! Source: U.S. Census
  30. 30. Age
  31. 31. 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 - 4 5-9 10-14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 - 84 85+ Buckhead Atlanta Metro 2013 Age Comparison Source: ESRI Demographics
  32. 32. 20 County Area Compared to Nation 2010 Census 20-County Area Baby Boomers: Born between 1944 and 1963 GI and Silent Generation: Born before 1944 Generation X (BABY BUST): 1964 to 1977 Generation Y (ECHO, Millennial) 1978 to 1992 Generation Z: 1993 to 2010 -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% <5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Female Male Nation
  33. 33. Where Millennials Live 2010 (AGE 15-30)
  34. 34. Health
  35. 35. Oh Yeah… Place Matters! Source: County Health Rankings
  36. 36. Male Change in Life Expectancy Source: County Health Rankings 1999 to 2009 Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/
  37. 37. 2009 Male Life Expectancy Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/
  38. 38. 2009 Female Life Expectancy Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/
  39. 39. Death Rates: Major Cardiovascular Diseases Source: GA Dept. of Health (OASIS)
  40. 40. Education
  41. 41. 34.1 46.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Percent Metropolitan Statistical Area HS- BAC+ 20 Largest MSAs: Educational Attainment, 2010 US: Bachelor 30.9% BLUE Equals Percent without High School Diploma 50 Source: American Community Survey, 2010 1-Year
  42. 42. US: 30.9% 51 Source: American Community Survey 2007-2011
  43. 43. Educational Attainment Buckhead (SD) 75% with Bachelor’s Degree
  44. 44. 16 4 5 15 20 10 7 8 17 13 11 9 14 12 19 6 1 3 18 2 2 16 18 9 1 8 5 13 3 10 12 15 6 11 7 14 19 20 4 17 11 12 15 7 9 5 10 19 4 8 14 6 3 13 1 17 20 16 2 18 15 13 5 8 14 17 20 1 19 9 2 11 16 6 12 10 3 4 18 7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Science/Engineering Business Education Arts/Humanities Source: 2009 American Community Survey Note: The American Community Survey relies on sample data to develop estimates. The figures shown are the midpoint for a range of possible estimates at the 90 percent confidence level. Since a range of estimates is possible for each metro area, the ranks may not be exact. Degree Type by Metro Area (Ranks for each degree on chart)
  45. 45. High School Graduation Rates 88.4 86.27 82.32 81.9 78.23 76.21 76.01 74.85 74.82 74.74 73.35 72.73 72.35 70.98 70.05 68.53 67.56 67.08 66.22 66.2 64.22 64.14 58.82 58.65 58.43 56.01 51.96 51.48 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Decatur City Forsyth Buford City Carrollton City Fayette Cartersville City Paulding Coweta Cherokee Walton Cobb Hall Henry Douglas Fulton Social Circle City Gwinnett Carroll Bartow Rockdale Barrow Newton Spalding DeKalb Gainsville City Marietta City Atlanta Public Schools Clayton Graduation Rate, 2010-2011 NEW METHOD % 54 Source: GA DoE
  46. 46. Socioeconomics
  47. 47. 2013 Income Comparison 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% <$15,000 $15,000 - $24,999 $25,000 - $34,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $75,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,000 $200,000+ Buckhead Atlanta Metro Source: ESRI Demographics
  48. 48. Atlanta MSA and the Nation Source: BLS, CES SAE series
  49. 49. Recent Atlanta MSA Trends by Industry MAY Source: BLS, CES,
  50. 50. Recent Atlanta MSA Trends by Industry August Source: BLS, CES,
  51. 51. Large Metros Employment Change
  52. 52. Large Metros Employment Change
  53. 53. Source: BLS CES SAE
  54. 54. Source: Zillow
  55. 55. Foreclosures Shifting 2007 PSQM Source : Equity Depot 66
  56. 56. Source : Equity Depot 67 Foreclosures Shifting 2010 PSQM
  57. 57. Source : Equity Depot 68 Foreclosures Shifting 2012 PSQM
  58. 58. Total Employment Change -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2010-2012 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2000-2010 Source: BLS, CES SAE
  59. 59. 10-County Employment Change -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Professional and Technical Services Retail Trade State and Local Administrative and Waste Services Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Transportation and Warehousing Construction Manufacturing Information Educational Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Federal Civilian Management of Companies and Enterprises Federal Military 1990 1990to2011 Source: REMI, BLS
  60. 60. Employment Change 2010 to 2012 Buckhead added 7,510 jobs 3rd Superdistrict in Job Change N Fulton and N DeKalb 1-2 96, 471 Total Jobs 6th largest Superdistrict
  61. 61. Employment Performance Comparison 3.86% 0.52% -5.94% -2.78% 4.44% 6.43% -3.73% -5.51% 1.14% 8.44% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 05to2006 06to2008 08to2009 09to2010 10to2012 Metro Atlanta Buckhead Source: ARC Estimates (GA Dept. of Labor Data) Buckhead Prof Sc Tech job increase 2005-2012 4,161 (12%) is 22% of the total increase for the 20-County Region
  62. 62. Buckhead Employment Sectors (2011) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Public Administration Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Construction Management of Companies and Enterprises Other Services (excluding Public Administration) Educational Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Transportation and Warehousing Information Administration & Support, Waste Management and… Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Finance and Insurance Health Care and Social Assistance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Source: Census LEHD On the Map
  63. 63. Commuting Patterns to work in Buckhead
  64. 64. Where Residents go to Work Where Workers Live
  65. 65. How Will We Change?
  66. 66. New Census Projections 77
  67. 67. South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast to grow the most.
  68. 68. South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast to grow the most.
  69. 69. South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast to grow the most.
  70. 70. South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast to grow the most.
  71. 71. Population Growth Comparison United States 20-County Area Rest of Georgia (139 Counties) Source: Plan 2040 Forecasts, 2009
  72. 72. 20-County Population Trends: Draft Forecast 2013 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 5,278 7,887 inThousands Total Population Average Annual %
  73. 73. Region’s Aging Profile DRAFT Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Ages 0-4 Ages 5-9 Ages 10-14 Ages 15-19 Ages 20-24 Ages 25-29 Ages 30-34 Ages 35-39 Ages 40-44 Ages 45-49 Ages 50-54 Ages 55-59 Ages 60-64 Ages 65-69 Ages 70-74 Ages 75-79 Ages 80-84 Ages 85+ Age Pyramid 2010 2040
  74. 74. DRAFT Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013) 87 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Ages 85+ Ages 80-84 Ages 75-79 Ages 70-74 Ages 65-69 Ages 60-64
  75. 75. More Diverse 71% 60% 50% 47% 43% 40% 25% 28% 32% 31% 31% 30% 2% 4% 7% 8% 9% 9% 2% 7% 11% 14% 17% 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 White Black Other Hispanic Source: Plan 2040 Forecasts
  76. 76. 20-County Forecast Area 24% 24% 20% 68% 67% 60% 8% 9% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Age 65 and Older Age 16-64 Age 0-15 Labor Force Share Getting Smaller 1,456,824 29% 3,103,125 63% 384,991 8% Workers and Dependents - 2005 0-19 20-64 65+ 2,086,038 25% 4,559,462 55% 1,610,823 20% Workers and Dependents - 2040 0-19 20-64 65+ Roughly 1.6 workers for every dependent today. By 2040, roughly one-to- one Source: Census and ARC Plan2040 Forecast 89
  77. 77. Who is (was) moving to Atlanta?
  78. 78. County Growth
  79. 79. Buckhead 2040 Population 113,961 44% Increase
  80. 80. 20-County Employment Trends: Draft Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 4,824 inThousands Total Employment 1.99% 1.28% 1.24% Average Annual % Change
  81. 81. 20-County Employment Change by Sector: Draft Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013) -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Educational Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies and Enterprises State Government Federal Civilian Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Information Transportation and Warehousing Finance and Insurance Other Services, except Public Administration Administrative and Waste Management Services Health Care and Social Assistance Construction Accommodation and Food Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Wholesale Trade Local Government Manufacturing Retail Trade 1990 1990-2013 2013-2040
  82. 82. -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Management of Companies and Enterprises Federal Civilian Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation State Government Educational Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Accommodation and Food Services Other Services, except Public Administration Local Government Retail Trade Construction Administrative and Waste Management Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance 1990 1990-2013 2013-2040 20-County Employment Change by Sector: Draft Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
  83. 83. Buckhead 2040 Employme nt 135,272 54% Increase
  84. 84. Metro Atlanta and Cobb County Demographics and Economics for the Traton Homes 2013 Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission malexander@atlantaregional.com
  85. 85. THIS IS A VIDEO MAKE IT PLAY BY CLICKING Employmen t Blue Served by Heavy Rail Transit
  86. 86. Urbanized Area 1950 to 2010 Source: US Census, ARC
  87. 87. Growth Creates Demand for Infrastructure: Are We Prepared? TRANSIT (same scale, yellow transit lines and red transit stops)
  88. 88. Meeting Transportation Challenges Source: Plan2040
  89. 89. “If you want to be a leader, you’ve got to be a reader.” David Noebel, religious leader and writer (1937–)
  90. 90. Questions? Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager Atlanta Regional Commission malexander@atlantaregional.com http://www.neighborhoodnexus.org/http://www.atlantaregional.com/

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