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HBA 2016 Housing Forecast

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Brian Kelsey's presentation at the HBA 2016 Housing Forecast on January 13, 2016.

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HBA 2016 Housing Forecast

  1. 1. Austin, TX: State of the Economy 2016 Housing Forecast | 01/13/16
  2. 2. 2 Austin Economy – 2015 Highlights • Total nonfarm employment is up by 34,000 jobs thru November (3.7%).1 • > 3x statewide rate, leading all other “Texas Triangle” metros, and trailing only San Jose among large US MSAs. • Lowest unemployment in city (2.9%) and region (3.3%) since dot-com era.2 • Wages (average) are finally back to pre-dot-com recession levels.3 Source: 1Texas Workforce Commission (TWC), Current Employment Statistics, seasonally adjusted. Texas Triangle is Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. 2TWC, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, not seasonally adjusted. 3TWC, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, adjusted for inflation 2014 $. Large US MSAs are defined as metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with 1 million+ population.
  3. 3. 3 Austin is shaking off Texas slowdown so far Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Current Employment Statistics, seasonally adjusted. -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Austin Dallas Texas Houston Monthly % change in total nonfarm employment YTD (Dec ‘14 = 0) San Antonio Dec‘14-Nov‘15 Change Percent Austin 34,000 3.7% San Antonio 33,600 3.5% Dallas 88,000 2.6% Houston 15,900 0.5% Texas 133,100 1.1%
  4. 4. 4 Source: Kauffman Foundation, Kauffman Index, Metropolitan Area Rankings for Startup Activity.
  5. 5. 5Source: Startup Compass, 2015 Global Startup Ecosystem Ranking.
  6. 6. 6 Austin among top three US tech markets since ‘10 Source: EMSI. Includes self-employment. Tech is defined as 49 six-digit NAICS industries based on TECNA/CompTIA/TechAmerica Cyberstates. See ATC economic impact report for methodology details. Regions are metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Raleigh-Durham is the combined Raleigh and Durham-Chapel Hill MSAs. 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Tech Employment Index (2001=100) Austin US 102,138 jobs Svcs 57% Mfg 43% 110,065 jobs Svcs 75% Mfg 25% 2010-2015 Change Percent Austin 23,581 27% Dallas 25,763 14% Houston 15,694 12% San Antonio 4,348 14% Texas 80,779 16% US 710,996 11% San Francisco 75,444 42% San Jose 75,281 31% Raleigh-Durh 15,539 21% Boston 30,868 13% Seattle 23,872 15% Provo 7,759 50%
  7. 7. 7Source: EMSI. Includes self-employment. Map shows change in total employment for metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with minimum of 5,000 jobs (2015) and a location quotient (LQ) of 1.5 or greater in Computer Systems Design and Related Services (NAICS 5415). AE is average earnings and includes wages and salaries, supplements, and proprietor income. See BEA definition. 2010-2015 Change Percent Austin 14,922 96% Provo 4,132 92% San Francisco 41,731 72% San Jose 24,983 50% Austin 30,497 jobs (2015) 96% growth ‘10-’15 2.33 LQ $115,571 AE IT Services and Applications (NAICS 5415)
  8. 8. 8 Austin Economy – Looking Ahead 2016 • Austin (MSA) likely surpassed 1 million jobs and 2 million in population in ‘15. • Projected job growth of 31,590 (3.1%) in 2016 according to EMSI estimates. • Tech job growth projected 2.4% overall – 3.1% services, 0.4% manufacturing. • Tight labor market for high-skill, high- pay, high-demand workers + ongoing influx of wealthier residents continue to put upward pressure on prices. Source: EMSI. Includes self-employment.
  9. 9. 9 Austin is fastest growing large city and metro in US Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Large refers to cities with 500,000+ in population and metro refers to metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with one million or more in population. City Population 07/01/14 Change 2013-14 Growth 2013-14 New York 8,491,079 52,700 0.6% Los Angeles 3,928,864 30,924 0.8% Chicago 2,722,389 82 0.0% Houston 2,239,558 35,752 1.6% Philadelphia 1,560,297 4,245 0.3% Phoenix 1,537,058 24,616 1.6% San Antonio 1,436,697 24,931 1.8% San Diego 1,381,069 21,225 1.6% Dallas 1,281,047 20,322 1.6% San Jose 1,015,785 11,964 1.2% Austin 912,791 25,667 2.9% Metro Population 07/01/14 Change 2013-14 Growth 2013-14 New York 20,092,883 90,797 0.5% Los Angeles 13,262,220 86,371 0.7% Chicago 9,554,598 9,802 0.1% Dallas 6,954,330 131,217 1.9% Houston 6,490,180 156,371 2.5% Philadelphia 6,051,170 14,942 0.2% Washington 6,033,737 66,561 1.1% Miami 5,929,819 66,361 1.1% Atlanta 5,614,323 88,891 1.6% Boston 4,732,161 34,112 0.7% Austin (#35) 1,943,299 57,496 3.0%
  10. 10. 10 Blame California Florida Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats. Number of tax returns and exemptions reported on tax returns are used as proxies for households and people. See methodology details on IRS site. To Travis Origin State Households (Tax Returns) 2011-2014 People (Exemptions) 2011-2014 Average Income (AGI Per Return) 2011-2014 Florida 30,236 47,047 $55,275 California 15,602 30,135 $81,059 Georgia 10,097 18,745 $27,446 New York 9,595 15,728 $53,557 Illinois 4,698 8,478 $56,407 North Carolina 3,541 7,994 $41,286 Arizona 3,430 7,704 $47,763 To Travis Origin County People (Exemptions) 2013-2014 Williamson, TX 14,332 Miami-Dade, FL 6,466 Harris, TX 6,060 Los Angeles, CA 5,679 Dallas, TX 3,788 Maricopa, AZ 3,728 Broward, FL 3,675 IRS reporting that majority (~60%) of people moving to Travis County are now coming from other states. Williamson County is still getting most (~70%) transplants from other counties in Texas, with largest portion (42%) from Travis County.
  11. 11. 11 Source: Mike Maciag, Governing, The Counties Where Wealthier People Are Moving. Data in text box is from U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates. Austin: The Human Capital For every four people age 25+ that Austin (city) gained 2006-2014, one of them had a graduate degree – i.e. 39,197 graduate degree holders with median earnings of $63,089/yr and average of $90,000+/yr. Austin (city) gained 13,770 households w/ income of $150,000+/yr during 2006-14, a 41% growth rate on par with outliers like Washington DC (40%).
  12. 12. 12 Austin Economy – Challenges for 2016 • Inclusive prosperity – average earnings for Hispanics (68%) and Blacks (65%) in Travis County have been less than 70% earnings for Whites for nearly 20 years. • When will housing costs in urban core start to erode competitive advantage? • Trying to tackle big-city/regional issues with small-city tools in environment of property-tax burdened residents, sales tax cap, and low voter participation. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. Average earnings include gross wages and salaries, bonuses, stock options, tips, and other gratuities, and the value of meals and lodging, where supplied (no benefits); sometimes referred to as unemployment insurance (UI) wages. Percentages reported here are averages of quarterly data for 2014.
  13. 13. $40,434 $49,554 $59,739 $95,598 No HS Diploma HS Diploma Some College/Associate Degree Bachelor's+ 13 Call to Action for 2016: Inclusive Prosperity Average Annual Earnings and Maximum Affordable Monthly Housing Costs in Travis County for Workers Age 25+ by Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity (2014) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. Average earnings include gross wages and salaries, bonuses, stock options, tips, and other gratuities, and the value of meals and lodging (no benefits); sometimes referred to as unemployment insurance (UI) wages. Percentages are averages of quarterly data for 2014. Race categories (Asian, White, Black) are Race Alone and Hispanic/Latino is Any Race. Affordability is ≤ 30% income. 48% of Travis County residents age 25-64 do not have a completed postsecondary degree (2014 ACS, 1-Yr Estimates). $40,020 $42,045 $62,079 $77,538 Black Hispanic/Latino White Asian $1,552 $1,051 $1,001 $1,938 $1,493 $1,239 $1,011 $2,390
  14. 14. 4101 Medical Parkway Suite 116 Austin, TX 78756 civicanalytics.com Brian Kelsey, Principal brian@civicanalytics.com

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