The document discusses Orange County's housing crisis as an economic, social, and demographic issue. It notes that housing prices are too high relative to incomes, millennials and 30-somethings are leaving, and there is a growing aging population and homelessness. Solutions proposed include developing a new housing vision and attracting/nurturing jobs in technology, professional services, and arts to improve affordability and retain residents. Charts show Orange County has among the least affordable housing nationally and is losing younger residents more so than comparable areas.

1. OC’s Housing Crisis is also an
economic, social and
demographic one
Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Roger Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban
Futures Chapman University to
Orange County Housing Summit, September 28, 2017

2. Issues related to Housing
• Housing prices too high relative to incomes
• Millennials and 30 somethings are not staying here
• A rapidly aging population that lacks alternatives
• Growing homelessness, and high levels of poverty
• OC needs a new housing vision

3. 0 2 4 6 8 10
New York MSA
Chicago MSA
Austin MSA
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA
Houston MSA
San Jose MSA
San Francisco MSA
Riverside San Bernardino MSA
Los Angeles County
Orange County
California
United States
Median Multiple (House Price/Household Income)
OC Housing Affordability: 3rd Lowest In U.S.
ORANGE COUNTY IN CONTEXT
Estimated from Census Bureau, California Assoc. of Realtors & Demographia data

4. Practical factors would most likely remove an area from consideration; housing is most impactful, recreational factors carry less
weight in a moving decision.
4
1 Q14: Which of the following would REMOVE a metro area from consideration as a destination for you if the metro did not meet your needs in this category?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Cost of housing was the #1 factor to
remove an area from consideration,
but this challenge is not unique to
Orange County
Characteristics that eliminate metro from consideration
National n = 1,191 / Orange County n = 104
- OC resident- National respondent

5. The Slow Erosion of OC Tech Base: Fewer Tech
Jobs Today than in 1990
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Total Tech Industry Employment in Orange County - Selected Years, 1990-2014
Source: US Census Bureau data

6. 49.2 49.2 49.1
48.1
45.5 45.1 44.9 44.4 44.2
42.2 42.1 42 41.9 41.3 41.2 40.7 40.5 39.6 38.9 38.4 38.3 38.3
37.2 37.2
36 35.7 35.7 35.2 34.6 34.1 33.9 33.8 33.5 33.2 32.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Individuals Earning $75,000+, As Percentage of Population
Top 35 Counties, 2015
Source: U.S. Census

7. 96.92
93.89
90.70 89.81
78.23
76.06
74.13 73.45 73.15 72.50
70.83 70.00
67.96 66.45
64.89
62.96 62.38
60.39 59.34 58.67 58.20
43.90 42.86 41.43 40.91
29.50
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
Top 20 Largest Percent Growth in $75,000+ Incomes By County, Plus Selected West Coast Counties
2006-2015

8. -400,000 -300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Seattle MSA
San Jose MSA
San Francisco MSA
Riverside San Bernardino MSA
Phoenix MSA
Nashville MSA
Denver MSA
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA
Charlotte MSA
Austin MSA
Orange Co.
Los Angeles Co.
Census Bureau data
Net Domestic Migration: 2010-2016
ORANGE COUNTY & SELECTED MSA’S

9. 24.0 28.3
41.5
56.9
77.7 79.4
88.3
100.3
Personal&
Home Care
Aide
Retail
Salesperson
Construction
Laborer
Carpenter Elementary
School
Teacher
Computer
Programmer
Nurse (RN) Biomedical
Engineer
Even High-Wage Workers Cannot Afford Housing
9
Orange County Wages v. Qualifying Income
($000s)
ORANGE COUNTY
TO QUALIFY: $117.5K

10. Growth in Educated Population Not Keeping Pace
10
69
66
47 47
39 37
23
18
Inland
Empire
Austin New York Texas Chicago Los
Angeles
Silicon
Valley
Orange
County
2000 – 2014 Bachelor’s or Graduate Degree Holders Growth Age
25-34
(000s)

11. -3.6
3.0
0.1
-43.0
-11.0
-1.0
-5.5
-5.7
1.3
-1.6
-4.7
-2.6
-7.1
-4.1
1.1
2.0
Total:
1 to 4 years
5 to 17 years
18 and 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 39 years
40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 to 69 years
70 to 74 years
75 years and over
Orange County Net Domestic Migration Rates By Age, 2011-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

12. -20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
NetDomesticMigration
California
Texas
Net Domestic Migration by Age
CALIFORNIA AND TEXAS: 2013-2014
Derived from Internal Revenue Service data

13. International Migration Is Growing In Orange County
13
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
United States
Seattle MSA
San Jose MSA
San Francisco MSA
Riverside San Bernardino…
Phoenix MSA
Nashville MSA
Denver MSA
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA
Charlotte MSA
Austin MSA
Orange Co.
Los Angeles Co.
As a % of 2010 Population
Net International Migration Rate: 2010-2016
ORANGE COUNTY & SELECTED MSA’S

14. -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
United States
Seattle MSA
San Jose MSA
San Francisco MSA
Riverside-San Bernardino MSA
Phoenix MSA
Nashville MSA
Denver MSA
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA
Charlotte MSA
Austin MSA
Orange Co.
Los Angeles Co.
Age 35-49 Growth Orange Co. Compared
SELECTED AREAS & US TREND: 2000-2015
Census Bureau data
Generation X
Age in 2015
OC Is Losing GenX’ers Compared To Other Key Areas

15. -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
United States
Seattle MSA
San Jose MSA
San Francisco MSA
Riverside-San Bernardino MSA
Phoenix MSA
Nashville MSA
Denver MSA
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA
Charlotte MSA
Austin MSA
Orange Co.
Los Angeles Co.
Census Bureau data
Age 0-17 Growth: All Ethnicities
ORANGE COUNTY & US TREND: 2000-2015
The Number of Children Is Declining Compared To Key Areas

16. 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50
Orange Co.
San Diego MSA
San Jose MSA
San Francisco MSA
Los Angeles Co.
Sacramento MSA
Riverside-San Bernardino MSA
Stockton MSA
Fresno MSA
Bakersfield MSA
Coastal MSAs & Counties
Interior MSAs & Counties
CALIFORNIA
U. S. OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA
Age 65+ as a Ratio of 15-64
2040
2015
Old Age Dependency Ratio: 2015 & 2040
CALIFORNIA METROPOLITAN AREAS >1M IN 2040
Figure 16Derived from California Department of Finance projections

17. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Stockton MSA
San Jose MSA (Santa Clara Co. Only)
San Francisco MSA
San Diego Co.
Sacramento MSA
Riverside-San Bernardino MSA
Oxnard MSA
Modesto MSA
Los Angeles MSA
Fresno MSA
Bakersfield MSA
Orange Co.
California (2014)
Calculated from California Poverty Measure data (Stanford University)
Cost of Living Adjusted Poverty Rate
ORANGE COUNTY & SELECTED MSA’S: 2012-2014 AVERAGE
Data available
only for
California

18. 0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Single-Family Multi-Family
Rateper1,000Population
San Bernardino Co.
Los Angeles Co.
Orange Co.
California
Texas
United States
New Houses: Building Permits Growing At Half U.S. Rate
2014 BY TYPE
Source: US Census Bureau data

19. For OC respondents, good weather, professional opportunities, and familial affiliations keep them in the area.
19
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Good Weather Job / Good Work
Opportunities
Close to Family or Friends Raised in the area Already live in Orange
County
Fun Things to Do /
Entertainment
1Q28. Why did you choose to live in Orange County?
- OC respondent
Top 6 Reasons why OC respondents live in OC
Orange County n = 104

20. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ComparedtoDetached(5)
Construction Cost/Square Foot Compared to Detached (5 per Acre)
Construction Cost by House Type
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
Figure 20Derived from FBI Statistics: 2013, Major metropolitan areas (average).

21. Building a Future in OC
• New Housing needs to be found both in OC and IE
• Density is no replacement for single family homes people prefer
• More efforts needed to nurture tech, professional and arts
employment in county
• Skills training needed for large working class population
• Leaving people behind suggests problems to come