These slides are the from the Association's annual Economic Summit featuring Economist Dr. Walden, Economic Directors: Dwight, Basset and Alyssa Byrd and Chamber CEO Kim Tesoro from Hillsborough Chamber of Commerce
8. The Orange Chatham Association of Realtors®
2019 Annual Dues Timeline
• October 9: Annual Dues Invoices live
• December 31: Annual Dues Due
• January 5: Dues are Late ($75)
9. 2018 Economic Summit
The Orange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents
Dr. Michael Walden
North Carolina State
University
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11. WHERE IS THE ECONOMY NOW?
• 2ND LONGEST GROWTH PERIOD
• ACCELERATING GROWTH
• TIGHT LABOR MARKETS
• RISING INTEREST RATES AND
RISING INFLATION
13. BUT HOW LONG WILL IMPROVEMENT LAST?
BENEFITS OF TAX CUTS BAKED IN
ENERGY COSTS NOW RISING
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CONTROL OF
CONGRESS
HOW FAST WILL FED MOVE?
14. * NAFTA
* CHINA
* TARIFFS
INTERRUPTION OF
TRADE CONSIDERED A
NEGATIVE FOR THE
ECONOMY
TRADE DEALS OR TRADE WARS?
15. • FED’S DUAL
MANDATE
• “TAKE THE PUNCH
BOWL AWAY”
• ON TRACK TO RAISE
SHORT-TERM RATES
A FULL PERCENTAGE
PT.
FEDERAL RESERVE HAS SHIFTED FOCUS
FROM GROWTH TO INFLATION
16. PUBLIC DEBT IS BACK AS AN ISSUE
WE SLEEPWALKED THROUGH
RECENT DEBT HIKES AS INTEREST
RATES FELL
BUT WITH HIGHER RATES AND
FASTER DEBT GROWTH:
INTEREST ON DEBT AS % OF BUDGET
COULD DOUBLE FROM 7% TO 14% IN
2028
17. STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES
SLOW PRODUCTIVITY
AGING POPULATION/SLOW LABOR
FORCE GROWTH
“INVISIBLE” UNEMPLOYMENT
HOLLOWING-OUT OF LABOR MARKET
URBAN/RURAL DIVIDE
TECHNOLOGY AND UNEMPLOYMENT
18. WHEN’S THE NEXT RECESSION?
NO CURRENT IMBALANCES
CONSUMER DEBT PAYMENT % IS STILL LOW
HOWEVER, WATCH AUTO LOANS AND CREDIT
CARDS
WATCH BUSINESS DEBT
NEXT RECESSION: 2020
19. OUTLOOK
CONTINUED GROWTH FOR IMMEDIATE
FUTURE
SEEING THE “COSTS OF GROWTH”
LOOK FOR TRUMP “WAR OF WORDS”
AGAINST THE FED
IN THE “LATE INNINGS” OF THE EXPANSION
27. JOB GROWTH IS ON A TEAR
(ANNUALIZED RATE FOR 2018, BASED ON JANUARY-JUNE)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Goldsboro
Burlington
Wilmington
Fayetteville
Asheville
New Bern
Charlotte
Jacksonville
Hickory
Rocky Mount
Greensboro
Winston-Sal
State
Greenville
Raleigh
Rural
Durham
%
28. GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
Region June 2018 Rate Forecasted June 2019 Rate
Asheville 3.4% 3.2%
Burlington 4.2% 3.9%
Charlotte 3.9% 3.7%
Durham 3.8% 3.5%
Fayetteville 5.4% 4.9%
Greensboro 4.5% 4.0%
Greenville 4.9% 4.4%
Goldsboro 4.6% 4.3%
Hickory 3.9% 3.7%
Jacksonville 4.0% 3.8%
New Bern 4.3% 4.1%
Raleigh 3.7% 3.4%
Rocky Mount 6.3% 5.8%
Wilmington 3.9% 3.6%
Winston-Salem 4.1% 3.8%
29. CAN HOUSING SUPPLY KEEP UP?
FROM 2014 TO MID 2018
• DURHAM-CH METRO AREA ADDED 0.60 HOUSING
UNITS PER NEW JOB
(65% SINGLE FAMILY)
• RALEIGH-CARY METRO AREA ADDED 0.69 HOUSING
UNITS PER NEW JOB (70% SINGLE FAMILY)
30. STILL, KEY ISSUES FOR NORTH CAROLINA
IN UPCOMING DECADES
K-12: MAKING GAINS
COLLEGE: COST, IMPROVING
OUTCOMES
WORKFORCE: RE-TRAINING
ROADS: FUNDING
HEALTH CARE: COST, ACCESS
DEMOGRAPHICS: AGING
32. 2018 Economic Summit
The Orange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents
Dwight Bassett
Economic Development
Officer
Town of Chapel Hill
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45.
46. 2018 Economic Summit
The Orange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents
Alyssa Byrd
Interim President
Chatham County
Economic Development
Corporation
58. 2018 Economic Summit
The Orange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents
Kim Tesoro
Chief Executive Officer
Hillsborough Chamber
of Commerce
59. Changing Demographics
• Current population: 7,364 (up from
6,568 in 2017)
• Median Household Income: $55,590
• Median Home Listing Price: $245,000;
up about 4% from 2017
60. Employment
Major Employers:
• Local Government (Orange County Government, OC
School System, and Town of Hillsborough)
• UNC Hospital Hillsborough Campus
• Walmart
• PHE, Inc.
• Sports Endeavors
• Weaver Street Market
• Food Lion
………………to name a few!
61. Housing Areas
New Single Family Construction:
o Collins Ridge
o Waterstone Estates
o Forest Ridge & Fiori Hill
o Corbinton Commons (55+)
New Townhome Construction:
oCollins Ridge
oElfin’s Pond
o Waterstone Terraces/Harmony
@ Waterstone
New Condo/Apartment Construction:
o515 Churton
oBellevue Mill
Still seeing an overwhelming demand for
houses in the Historic District and great home
value growth on homes located in West
Hillsborough (Mill district) immediately
adjacent to the historic downtown.
62. Why live in Hillsborough?
o Great small town on the Eno River
o Outdoor recreation opportunities
abound and include the Riverwalk
Greenway, which connections from
Occoneechee Speedway through
Downtown, West Hillsborough, and
into the back of Occoneechee
Mountain State Park
o Fantastic local school system
o Award winning restaurants, unique
shops, and beautiful historic
architecture
63. Why live in Hillsborough?
o Creative arts community
o Always something to do with a thriving
tourism program that consists of free
concerts/events, programs, and attractions
o Low crime rate
65. The Orange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents
2018 Economic Summit
Check under your seats
66. 2018 Economic Summit
The Orange Chatham Association of Realtors® Presents
Thank You for
Coming!
Don’t miss our holiday luncheon / officer
installation @ Governors Club on December
14th
Editor's Notes
I want to start with a Chatham County landscape 101.
We have two industrial megasites that are actively marketed with the state and other partners for large economic development projects. I’m not going into detail with those today, but know that when a large industrial user comes, that will have a ripple effect on commercial and residential real estate throughout the area.
We have four municipalities, Siler City, Pittsboro and Goldston, and the town of Cary stretched over the Wake County border.
Governors Village, Governors Club and Fearrington Village are well-established residential communities with commercial components. They are all still growing, particularly the commercial in Governors Village.
And then there’s Briar Chapel and Chatham Park, which I’m going to dig into deeper.
First, Briar Chapel.
Briar Chapel celebrated its 10-year anniversary this year. It’s a planned mixed-use development and the top-selling community in the Triangle.
Here is an aerial from 2016. The growth in 2017. And now, doing a 180, the new construction as of June.
They are approved for up to 2,400 single family homes. To date, have sold 1,700 homes. Did 296 new homes in 2017.
There are a mix of home styles, and plenty of community amenities, including 900 acres of open space, trails, schools on-site, and most recently, commercial space.
So I’m keeping this little master plan in the corner while I go through these slides so we can orient ourselves.
We just covered the residential development.
Here is Veranda, the northern-most commercial piece, which is completing its second full year. There are several restaurants and cafes, a pharmacy, an urgent care, a dentist, a dermatologist, a barber shop, an eye doctor, an attorney’s office and a daycare. It’s connected to the homes by a trail and provides residents all around the “work and play” part of the Live Work Play equation. Every one of these is locally owned, and the daycare is a locally owned franchise.
Here’s the next phase, named The Verge. Site work is nearly done.
There will be a site for multi-family development. We are sorely lacking apartments in Chatham County. Then there will be a grocery store as a retail anchor, with outparcels available.
The first construction will be Central Carolina Community College’s new Health Sciences building. That groundbreaking was last week. It will really anchor this development as a place with students, instructors and constant activity.
The southernmost portion will be senior living/skilled nursing with some commercial pads available.
I’m going to flip so you can see how 15-501 runs north to south.
The big question: timeline: Anticipating The Verge to open in 2020 with all commercial work wrapped up by 2022.
Next for Chatham Park, I have a video.
Those are the major highlights. There’s activity within Pittsboro and Siler City. Siler City has a new manufacturer that is hiring 1,200 people, so the town is buzzing. Pittsboro is working closely with Chatham Park, which is in their jurisdiction, and addressing growth challenges and opportunities.
I want to close on one major piece of public policy that was adopted last fall and that our office can help you with.
Chatham County has a new comprehensive land use plan. That land use plan directs growth to the municipalities and within different development nodes. The type of allowable development for the different nodes is defined in that plan. If you want to buy, sell, list, rezone, develop a parcel in Chatham County, you need to be aware of this plan and its application to a parcel. And we can help you navigate that to streamline the process. We’re here to support job growth and investment in Chatham County, and real estate brokers are a significant part of that mission, so please reach out if you think there’s something we could help with.