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Spatial Analysis of Tuberculosis and Malaria
1. Presented by
Nowaj Sharif
JNU, Research Scholar
Center for the Studies of Regional Development
Spatial Analysis of Tuberculosis
and Malaria
2. INTRODUCTION
TUBERCULOSIS
Tuberculosis (TB) is still a major public health problem in most
developing and developed countries. TB is a re-emerging
infectious disease caused by a bacterium called Mycobacterium
tuberculosis (M.tuberculosis) TB is predominantly a disease of
respiratory system but it can also affect bones and joints, vascular
system, central nervous system, genitourinary systems and
lymphatic system.2 In 1993 the World Health Organization
declared tuberculosis a global public health emergency.
3. Contd…
Global scenario
• According to WHO, TB is a worldwide pandemic. Among the
15 countries with the highest estimated TB incidence rates, 13
are in Africa, while six in Asian countries, viz., Bangladesh,
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Philippines
• In 2016, 10.4 million people fell ill with TB, and 1.7 million
died from the disease
• Over 95% of TB deaths occur in low- and middle-income
countries.
• In 2016, an estimated 1 million children became ill with TB
and 250 000 children died
4. Contd....
Indian scenario
• India continues to have the highest number of tuberculosis
(TB) cases in the world, the Global TB Report 2017- (WHO)
• According to the report, in India, an estimated 27.9 lakh
patients were suffering from TB in 2016 and up to 4.23 lakh
patients were estimated to have died during the year
5. Contd....
MALARIA
Malaria is a life-threatening mosquito-borne blood disease
caused by a Plasmodium parasite.
It is transmitted to humans through the bite of
the Anopheles mosquito.Once an infected mosquito bites a
human, the destroying red blood cells.
Global scenario
In 2016, there were an estimated 216 million cases of malaria
in 91 countries, and deaths reached 445 000 in 2016, a similar
number (446 000) to 2015.
The WHO reported that African Region carries high share of
the global malaria burden.
6. Contd....
Indian scenario
India is one of 15 countries in the world to have the highest cases
and deaths of malaria, the World Health Organisation's 2017
World Malaria Report revealed
Nigeria bore the highest burden in the world, contributing 30
percent of the deaths. India was fourth with 7 percent of death
India had 649 million population at risk in 2010 and reported
1018 deaths. Now, it has 698 million population at risk with 331
reported deaths.
A 2010 Reuters report quoted a paper from The Lancet, saying,
malaria killed close to 2, 05,000 people annually in India.
Though the WHO had rejected the paper's reasoning, a January,
2016.
The number of cases in it highest endemic state, Odisha as well
as tribal and hilly region and it prevail in poor community.
7. LITERATURE REVIEW
• Tuberculosis: Current Situation, Challenges and Overview of its
Control Programs in India (Journal of Global Infectious Diseases)
-Sandhu GK
• Modifiable risk factors associated with tuberculosis disease in
children in Pune, India
-J. Jubulis, A. Kinikar, M. Ithape, M. Khandave, S. Dixit, S.
Hotalkar, V. Kulkarni, V. Mave, N. Gupte, A. Kagal, S. Jain, R.
Bharadwaj, and A. Gupta
8. Contd…
• Burden of asymptomatic malaria among a tribal
population in a forested village of central India: a hidden
challenge for malaria control in India
- (M.K.Chourasia, K.Raghavendra,R.M.Bhatt,D.K.Swain)
• This study was undertaken in one of the forested villages of
the Keshkal subdistrict in Kondagaon district of 159
individuals including children. Overall, the malaria slide
positivity rates were 27.6% and 27.7% in 2013 and 2014,
respectively. But the prevalence rate of malaria is higher
among children.
9. DATA SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY
• Data for this study have been taken from NFHS- 4 in
consideration for the information of Prevalence on
tuberculosis.
• For determining the prevalence of Malaria across
India, secondary data has been used from NVBDCP-
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and
Meteorological data has been used from Indiastat.
• For analysis various statistical and cartographic
technique has been used like Arcgis, Geoda and
STATA.
10. Objectives
• District level spatial analysis of tuberculosis
across India.
• State level spatial analysis of malaria to
understand the seriousness of the disease
across India.
• To examine the various factor affecting their
distribution.
13. Annual parasite incidence.[API]
API =confirmed cases during 1 year x 1000
population under surveillance
• Annual blood examination rate [ABER]
ABER= nos of slides examined x100
population
9
18. >>02/02/18 03:00:28
REGRESSION
----------
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
Data set : M_test
Dependent Variable : PF Number of Observations: 36
Mean dependent var : 0.696601 Number of Variables : 2
S.D. dependent var : 1.54113 Degrees of Freedom : 34
R-squared : 0.300787 F-statistic : 14.6261
Adjusted R-squared : 0.280222 Prob(F-statistic) : 0.000534018
Sum squared residual: 59.7851 Log likelihood : -60.2121
Sigma-square : 1.75839 Akaike info criterion : 124.424
S.E. of regression : 1.32604 Schwarz criterion : 127.591
Sigma-square ML : 1.6607
S.E of regression ML: 1.28868
----------------------------------------------------------------------
-------
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic
Probability
----------------------------------------------------------------------
-------
CONSTANT -0.561876 0.396393 -1.41747
0.16544
Rainfall 0.0101159 0.00264509 3.82441
0.00053
19. Limitations & Conclusion
• The study has used limited independent variables
to find its correlation.
• The study was limited to the state level due to the
constrain of data availability.
• To conclude vector borne diseases are a threat to
a country like India where density of population is
very high.
• Malaria is considered to be a tropical disease in
spite of which country like Srilanka had eradicated
it. Thus from the results and findings we can
understand its seriousness and thereby more
scientific study could be carried out on the same.
28. Findings & Conclusion
• This study shows that independent variable- fuel has a
significant correlation with the prevalence of TB.
• The prevalence of TB is unevenly distributed across
the districts of the country.
• Thus from the results and findings we can understand
its seriousness and thereby more scientific study could
be carried out on the same.
