Niklas Höhne from NewClimate Institute presents on the impact on non-state action

1. Impact of non-state and sub-
national action
07 December 2015
Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@newclimate.org
The project underlying this presentation is supported with funding from the
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and
Nuclear Safety of Germany under project number 3715 41 109 0.

2. Content
Non-state and sub-national action is increasing
Impact of the action is probably significant, but
effect and overlap with national actions needs
attention
07/12/2015 2

3. Non-state and subnational
action is increasing
07/12/2015 3Source: http://climateaction.unfccc.int

4. Initiatives are numerous
07/12/2015 4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Multilateral organisations
Fluorinated gases
Methane emissions from oil and gas…
Renewable electricity
Funding/ fiscal reform
Energy efficiency in buildings
Industry
Cities
Transport
Other
Agriculture/Forestry
174 initiatives reviewed, in cooperation with climateinitiativesplatform.org
Project: Analysis of
impact of
initiatives

5. Initiatives have various primary
functions
07/12/2015 5
174 initiatives reviewed, in cooperation with climateinitiativesplatform.org
Increasing non-state actor participation
Technology transfer
Technical operational implementation
Lobbying
Measurement Reporting and Verification (MRV)
Policy planning / Institutional policy and economic framework
Training and education
Institutional capacity building
Norm and standard setting
Campaigning and awareness raising
Fundraising / Financing
Knowledge production and innovation including research and development
Knowledge dissemination and exchange / Information and Networking
Partnership and voluntary agreements
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 4
Project: Analysis of
impact of
initiatives

6. Good practice for initiatives
Set clear goals: Targets, whether for emissions reduction, policy impact,
technology innovation or other co-benefits, should be upfront and include
indicators for success.
Monitor action: Maintain and publically report, where appropriate, good
quality data to monitor and support action.
Increase ambition: Establish a process which fosters dynamic and
continuous ambition raising and improvement.
Increase membership: A focus on increasing membership requires an
explicit strategy to manage the tension between raised ambition and
larger membership.
Collaborate across sectors: Collaboration with other initiatives, sharing
best practice and achieving shared aims provides mutual bene ts.
Communicate: Good communications to support the adoption of best
practice.
07/12/2015 6Source: Better partnerships, Ecofys and CISL

7. Targets/commitments
25%, have a clear commitment (also includes qualitative or for parts of the
initiative)
Agriculture and forestry: 19%
Energy efficiency in buildings: 38%
Renewable electricity 44%
Monitoring and reporting
31%: framework for regular reporting
16%: could but do not have a system
54%: no information was found
Responsibilities
22% established a permanent secretariat
Often driven from developed countries
Project: Analysis of
impact of
initiatives
Characteristics of initiatives
07/12/2015 7
174 initiatives reviewed, in cooperation with climateinitiativesplatform.org

8. Content
Non-state and sub-national action is increasing
Impact of the action is probably significant, but
effect and overlap with national actions needs
attention
07/12/2015 8

9. INDCs move emissions and
temperature but not enough
9
Source: Climate Action Tracker, 1 October 2015,
http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/CAT_global_temperature_update_October_2015.pdf
Summ
Nationa
synthes
of 11am
with the
promise
announc
2030 ar
reflectin
where o
availabl
result fr
about 0
There is still a large emissions g
For 1.5°C the 2025 gap is
improvement in the level of mit
With current INDCs, the emissio
There is a major risk that if cu
strengthened every five years, s
by all the most vulnerable cou
fundamentally threatened.
Of the 19 INDCs rated by the
been rated as “sufficient.” Inst
“medium,” and eight, which c
sufficient but cover only 0.4%
information.
Based on the climate action pr

10. 0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
PBL UNEP Hsu et al.
EmissionreductionsinGtCO2eQuantitative impact of
initiatives in 2020
07/12/2015 10
Overlapping with
national action
Additional to
national action
Hsu, Angel, Andrew S. Moffat, Amy J. Weinfurter, and Jason D. Schwartz. 2015. “Towards a New Climate Diplomacy.” Nature Climate Change 5(6): 501–3.
http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate2594.
Roelfsema, Mark, Mathijs Harmsen, Jos Olivier, and Andries Hof. 2015. Climate Action Outside the UNFCCC - Assessment of the Impact of International
Cooperative Initiatives on Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Hague. http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/pbl-2015-climate-action-outside-the-
unfccc_01188.pdf.
UNEP. 2014. The Emissions Gap Report 2014: A UNEP Synthesis Report. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi.
http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2014/portals/50268/pdf/EGR2014_LOWRES.pdf.
See also Yale analysis of NAZCA http://campuspress.yale.edu/datadriven/2015/11/26/analyzing-non-state-and-sub-national-climate-pledges-in-nazca-and-the-lpaa/
Project: Analysis of
impact of
initiatives

11. support the achievement of these policies. Secondly, some initiatives go beyond the ambition of currently
implemented or planned policies, and would therefore result in additional emission reductions beyond the
scope of what could be achieved under such policies.
Figure 1: Absolute emission levels in Germany under current and enhanced policy scenarios (Matthes,
Hansen, Diekmann, & Eichhammer, 2013), and the emission levels that would result if the selection of
initiatives analysed in this report were to be fully implemented (indicated by downward arrows).
Non-state action is additional
to Germany’s 40% target
11
13 to 31 MtCO2e/year
8 to 18 MtCO2e/year
Source: How much more could Germany achieve through non-state action?
http://newclimate.org/2015/11/25/how-much-more-could-germany-achieve-through-non-state-action/

12. Results
07/12/2015 12
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Bavaria NRW Climate Alliance
European Wind
Initiative Renovate Europe
Netreductionsincl.overlaps
(MtCO2e/year)
Net reductions until 2020 of selected initiatives
compared to CPS 2020 compared to ETS 2020
Source: How much more could Germany achieve through non-state action?
http://newclimate.org/2015/11/25/how-much-more-could-germany-achieve-through-non-state-action/

13. Quantitative impact of initiatives –
plans for early 2016
Identify good practice criteria for
initiative
Qualitative analysis of the initiatives
Quantify the impact on emissions of
China, USA, EU, India, Brazil, Russia,
Japan, Canada
07/12/2015 13
Project: Analysis of
impact of
initiatives

14. Conclusions
Non-state and sub-national action is increasing
Good practice for initiatives is emerging
Impact of the action is probably significant, but
effect and overlap with national actions needs
attention
07/12/2015 14