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Long-Term Climate Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit


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On September 23, world leaders will convene in New York for the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit. In line with the goals of the Paris Agreement and the IPCC special report on the impacts of a global warming of 1.5 °C, one of the key objectives of the summit is to secure political will leading to ambitious 2020 commitments, as well as long-term strategies with concrete steps and interim targets towards achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Learn more:

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Long-Term Climate Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit

  2. 2. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit AGENDA • Welcome (5 mins) – Pankaj Bhatia, World Resources Institute • Scene setting and country experiences on LTS (10 mins) – Richard Baron, 2050 Pathways Platform • Chile’s long-term planning process and road to COP25 (10 mins) – Jenny Mager Santos, Ministry of Environment, Chile • UK’s Clean Growth Strategy and net-zero emissions goal (10 mins) – Tony Ripley, UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy • Moderated Q&A (15 mins) • Conclusion (7 mins) – James Vener, United Nations Development Programme
  3. 3. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit • Join audio:​ – Preferred method: through Computer Audio​ – Back-up: choose Telephone and dial-in using the phone numbers listed in the webinar confirmation email​ • Please select “Q&A” at the bottom of your screen to submit questions for the Q&A session • Attendees remain in listen-only mode • Note: Today’s presentation is being recorded and will be provided within 48 hours ATTENDEE PARTICIPATION If you experience technical problems during the webinar, please email Mary Levine:
  4. 4. 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 4 STATE OF PLAY OF LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSIONS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES Richard Baron Executive Director - 2050 Pathways Platform 7 August, 2019
  5. 5. Long-term pathways – from long-term ambition to near-term changes Business-as-usual NDC1 Long-term low-carbon pathway Back-casting emissions GHGEMISSIONS TIME In accordance with Art. 4.1 of the Paris Agreement 2030 2040 2050 NDC2
  6. 6. 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 6 Long-term Strategies: State of PlayLong-term strategies: Global state of play
  7. 7. Process for a robust long-term pathway 07/08/2019 7
  8. 8. EXPLORATION Model-based exploration of long-term outcomes + Contribution of various technologies to low-carbon + Alternative choices on land-use + Different global scenarios + Initiate domestic discussion US, Can, Mex, Cz, Ukr, (EU) VISION & PATHWAY Back-casting from a long-term “vision” + Starts from a quantified objective (e.g. ‘carbon neutrality’ by year X) + Explores sectoral strategies / roadmaps + Builds a low-carbon emission and growth trajectory Fiji, France, RMI DECLARATION OF INTENT Multi-stakeholder and sectoral consultations + Lays out existing policies + Identify sectoral challenges and opportunities + A manifesto that opens a discussion domestically Germany, UK, Japan 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 8 Typology of long-term strategies (LTS) - focus on mitigation -
  9. 9. Ideally, a long-term low-emission development strategy will… 07/08/2019 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 9 • Answer the question: how will the decarbonisation and climate-resilience agenda support socio-economic development ? • Avoid incrementalism, i.e. adopt a back-casting approach • Be an inclusive, deliberative process (central and local gov’t, business, civil society) • Expose trade-offs and problems to be resolved, as well as co-benefits and opportunities, and major uncertainties • Set a process in motion: include a periodic review • Link back to near-term policy, infrastructure choices, and broader reforms for ‘alignment’ of climate protection and development
  10. 10. 07/08/2019 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 10 “Having a good plan is not a sufficient condition for success. But not having one is always a recipe for failure” F. Bainimarama, Prime Minister of Fiji
  11. 11. Chile’s long-term planning process and road to COP25 Jenny Mager Santos Mitigation and inventories area Climate Change Office 07 de Agosto de 2019
  12. 12. Chile is a vulnerable country Based on future climate scenarios, the following impacts are expected: • Temperature increases between 2°C and 4°C throughout the country at the end of the century. • 5-20% decrease in rainfall in the Central Zone and 10-15% increase in rainfall in the Southern Zone • Melting of glaciers and reduction of the Andean area to store snow. • Sea level rise between 20-30cm
  13. 13. Chile’s National inventory, Time series 1990-2016 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 ktCO2eq 1. Energía 2. IPPU 3. Agricultura 5. Residuos 4. UTCUTS Balance • In 2016, total emissions reach: 111.677 kt CO2eq. • Energy sector, Main emitter (78 % of total emissions). • Forestry sector is a sink (-65.492 kt CO2eq). • GHG balance reach 46.185 kt CO2eq.
  14. 14. Status of current NDC: Emission intensity 0.72 0.67 1.03 0.57 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Esc Actual INGEI by 2025 Chile will reach 30% of by 2030 Chile will reach 35% of reduction w/r 2007 However… “INDC 2015: Chile is committed to reduce its CO2 emissions per GDP unit by 30% below their 2007 levels by 2030”
  15. 15. Status of current NDC: Total emissions - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 NI Current scenario 45% at 2025, emissions increase by 21% w/r 2007 at 2030, emissions increase by 30% w/r 2007 Reducing Carbon intensity by 45% means that emission could still growth by 10% w/r 2007
  16. 16. Long-term Vision: GHG emissions Neutrality • Chile´s Announced its intention to become carbon neutral by 2050 • In june the Government launched its plan for Coal Phase-out by 2040 • This goal has been added in the proyect of the new Climate change law
  17. 17. Why NDCs need to be updated? Decision 1/CP.21 request parties' whose NDC contains “a time frame up to 2030” to communicate or update their NDC by 2020. Strong UN call for increased ambition of mitigation commitments (mainly based on the result of IPCC Special Report 1.5°C ) Chile will chair and host COP25 (December 2019), an event in which it will announce its update. 4 years have passed since the NDC, with important advances (sharp fall in prices ERNC, electromobility, Coal phase out announcement, CO2 tax) 1
  18. 18. Zero net emissions Peak Zero Negative emissions 18Fuente: IPCC SR1,5 IPCC SR1.5°C: emission pathways We must have a clear vision where to arrive (ambitious goal), but not lose sight or neglect the path that leads us there.
  19. 19. Long Term Climate Strategies are the tools to align NDCs with the objectives set in Paris. 2
  20. 20. Benefits of an LTS for Chile • Alignment of short- and medium-term planning with a long-term country vision. Considering the particular situation in terms of risks and opportunities posed by a change in climate conditions. • To better define and plan compliance with international commitments on climate change, incorporating the continuous process of reviewing and updating Chile's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as part of the processes contained in the strategy.
  21. 21. Benefits of an LTS for Chile • It allows governments to give a clear signal to the private sector, avoiding investments which are inconsistent with the national vision of sustainable growth. In general, the private sector will respond accordingly if the country clearly defines the route it wants to take to development. • Helps align national and sub-national policies and targets, supporting sectoral and local development planning.
  22. 22. LTS – Structure Long-Term Vision – Carbon Neutrality 2050 – NDC aligned to Carbon Neutrality Climate Change Mitigation – Emissions targets and scenarios for 2050 – Sectoral Pathways – Long-term vision for each sector and direction of the most relevant associated policies and measures (at least Power generation, Transport, Industry and LULUCF). Adaptation to Climate Change – Long-term adaptation goal Implementation Approach — Carbon Budgets (Similar to the UK system) — NDC update — Sectoral Mitigation and adaptation Plans. Monitoring and Revision — Review every 10 years — Alignment to NDCs review process
  23. 23. LTS – Other relevant elements Climate Change Law • Technology Transfer and Development • Capacity Building • Climate Finance Regional Policies Integration Climate Governance Black Carbon
  24. 24. What are we doing today? Forecasting Models Construction of sectorial models according to the structure of the National Inventory of GHG Emissions. ► Energy (Ministry of Energy). ► IPPU. ► Agriculture. ► Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). ► Waste. Development of long-term scenarios based on the country's carbon neutral vision. NDC Revision It is an important part of the long-term strategy and marks the first milestone of the carbon neutral trajectory. Work Plan Elaboration of a Work Plan for the development of the strategy, including a participatory process, identification of relevant actors and alignment with sector policies.
  25. 25. Challenges • In order to achieve a long-term strategy that is valid over time, the active participation of all sectors of society is required. • It must be linked to existing policies to facilitate the implementation of actions. • Processes that allow the necessary evaluation and adjustments to achieve the objectives defined in the strategy must be defined. • There must be a clear definition of roles, in order to develop the necessary elements to meet the objectives.
  26. 26. The benefits of Long Term Strategies, the UK’s Clean Growth Strategy and its net-zero emissions goal Tony Ripley, Head of UNFCCC Ambition, UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
  27. 27. UK Climate Change Act, 2008 • Contains: • Target for 80 per cent reduction in GHG emissions on 1990 levels by 2050 (recently amended to 100 per cent) • 5 yearly carbon budgets • Climate Change Committee to set out independent advice on the carbon budgets and to review our plans and systems including through annual progress reports • Requirement to carry out climate change risk assessments and publish adaptation plans • Requirement to set out long term strategy • Model has been copied by other countries such as Mexico, Sweden, France, and New Zealand
  28. 28. UK Long Term Strategies Published 2009 CBs 1-3 (2008-22) Published 2011 CB 4 (2023-27) Published 2017 CB 5 (2028-32) Clean Growth Strategy Submitted to the UNFCCC in April 2018. The Clean Growth Strategy outlines in detail our action up to 2032, in line with our Carbon Budgets, and highlights possible pathways to our 2050 target: 1. The Electricity pathway 2. The Hydrogen pathway 3. The Emissions Removal pathway
  29. 29. Benefits from pursuing net zero Low carbon economy • 430,000 UK jobs in low carbon businesses and their supply chains in 2017 and growing. • We have world-leading capabilities in areas including offshore wind, smart energy systems, sustainable construction, precision agriculture, green finance and electric vehicle manufacture. • Turnover of £79.6bn in the low carbon and renewable energy economy in 2017 - with growth of 7% outpacing GDP • Exports from UK low carbon and renewable energy sector were £5 bn in 2017 • The Government is investing £2.5 billion into clean growth innovation by 2021 as set out in the Industrial Strategy Low carbon and renewable energy • The UK has the largest installed offshore wind capacity in the world - 36% of the global capacity (8.2GW) – with plans to rise to rise to 14GW by 2023 • 1 in 5 battery electric cars sold in Europe in 2018 were built in the UK - in 2017 exports from low emission vehicles and infrastructure were worth £2.77 bn Global opportunities from clean growth • $11.5 trillion investment is expected in new power generation assets over the 32 years to 2050. Of this, 86% goes to zero-emissions technologies of which 73% ($8.4 trillion) on wind and solar. • By one estimate, the UK low carbon economy could grow 4 x faster than the rest of the economy 2015 - 2030 • Potential for low carbon exports by 2030 of £60 - £170 million supporting 2 million jobs • Offshore wind sector to triple highly-skilled jobs to 27,000 by 2030 • London a leader in green finance, and global centre of carbon trading. More than 95 green bonds listed on the London Stock Exchange, raising over $26bn across seven currencies.
  30. 30. UK Political Climate
  31. 31. Support to Others
  32. 32. UNFCCC gaps • LTSs invited not required • Link to domestic delivery less clear than for NDCs • Fixed at mid-century • No regular review mechanism • No requirement for peaking / net zero CO₂ / net zero GHG targets • No accounting and reporting • No synthesis report of submitted LTSs. • Unclear how they will feed in to the Global Stocktake
  33. 33. Thank You!
  34. 34. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit MODERATED Q&A If you experience technical problems during the webinar, please email Mary Levine:
  35. 35. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit CONCLUSION James Vener United Nations Development Programme
  36. 36. Long-Term Strategies and the U.N. Climate Action Summit LONG-TERM CLIMATE STRATEGIES UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT 2019 WEBINAR SERIES THANK YOU! For more information, please visit the Long-Term Climate Strategies website: Subscribe to the newsletter here: For questions on the webinar series, please contact: Mary Levine, World Resources Institute (