This document compares countries' climate action plans and policies using multiple approaches: 1) Comparing emission reduction targets to macroeconomic indicators and calculations of countries' fair share of emission reductions. 2) Assessing countries' policies across sectors like power, industry, transport, and agriculture against best practice policies. 3) Rating countries' climate policy packages based on the scope and strength of policies like carbon pricing, renewable energy support and fossil fuel subsidy phase outs. The document finds that while current country plans will still lead to over 2°C of warming, more ambitious action closing the emissions gap by 20-34% could limit warming to below 2°C. It advocates using multiple complementary approaches to evaluate and compare countries'

1. 8 November 2016
Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@newclimate.org
Comparing the ambition
level of INDCs

2. Comparing INDCs against…
• Macro-economic indicators
• Effort sharing calculations
• Sectoral decarbonisation indicators
• A good practice policy package
www.newclimate.org 2
Content

3. www.newclimate.org 3
Comparing to marco-economic
indicators
Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2016

4. Comparing INDCs against…
• Macro-economic indicators
• Effort sharing calculations
• Sectoral decarbonisation indicators
• A good practice policy package
www.newclimate.org 4
Content
Gambia Bhutan
Costa Rica

5. Different ways to share the effort
Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies.
Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.
5www.newclimate.org

6. www.newclimate.org 6
Defining a simple rating scale

7. www.newclimate.org 7
Defining a simple rating scale

8. 2020: 17% below 2005
2025: 26% to 28% below 2005
USA
8

9. EU
9
20% below 1990 in 2020
30% below 1990 in 2020 with ambitious international treaty
At least 40% below 1990 in 2030

10. 2020: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005, 15% non-fossil energy, afforestation
2030: target to peak CO2 emissions at the latest, CO2/GDP by 60% to 65% below
2005, 20% non-fossil energy, afforestation
China
10

11. www.newclimate.org 11
Country assessments
Gambia Bhutan
Costa Rica

12. Comparing INDCs against…
• Macro-economic indicators
• Effort sharing calculations
• Sectoral decarbonisation indicators
• A good practice policy package
www.newclimate.org 12
Content

13. Comparing emission intensity of
power production
Source:
http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_briefing_China_and_the_US__how_does_their_climate_action_co
mpare.pdf
www.newclimate.org 13

14. Explorer for 30 indicators
www.climateactiontracker.org/decarbonisation/ 14

15. Comparing INDCs against…
• Macro-economic indicators
• Effort sharing calculations
• Sectoral decarbonisation indicators
• A good practice policy package
www.newclimate.org 15
Content
Progress towards good practice policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
35
5.12 Japan
Climate policies in Japan show a balanced coverage of all sectors, with the exception of agriculture. One noteworthy
example from the buildings sector is the Low-carbon City Promotion Act (Eco-city Law, 2014), providing codes and
standards, as well as fiscal/financial incentives for low-carbon choices. The absence of fossil fuel subsidies, the
implementation of carbon and (decades-long) energy taxes and the implementation of a feed-in tariff scheme for
renewable electricity are the most important aspect of Japan’s climate action. Future climate mitigation measures in
Japan could consider policy areas with a limited number of implemented policies, such as the support schemes for
renewable energy use in non-electricity sectors.
Table 15 Coverage of the good practice policy menu in Japan

16. Policy database and initial analysis report
Option 1: counting if policies exist in a
matrix of good practice policy areas
www.climatepolicydatabase.org http://newclimate.org/2015/12/01/
good-practice-policies/
Supported by the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment and European Commission in CD-links project
www.newclimate.org 16

17. Policy coverage
in Japan
www.newclimate.org 17
Option 1: counting if policies exist in a
matrix of good practice policy areas
35
5.12 Japan
Climate policies in Japan show a balanced coverage of all sectors, with the exception of agriculture. One noteworthy
example from the buildings sector is the Low-carbon City Promotion Act (Eco-city Law, 2014), providing codes and
standards, as well as fiscal/financial incentives for low-carbon choices. The absence of fossil fuel subsidies, the
implementation of carbon and (decades-long) energy taxes and the implementation of a feed-in tariff scheme for
renewable electricity are the most important aspect of Japan’s climate action. Future climate mitigation measures in
Japan could consider policy areas with a limited number of implemented policies, such as the support schemes for
renewable energy use in non-electricity sectors.
Table 15 Coverage of the good practice policy menu in Japan
Source:
http://www.climatepolicydatabase.org
http://newclimate.org/2015/12/01/good-practice-policies

18. Option 1: counting if policies exist in a
matrix of good practice policy areas
www.newclimate.org 18
Coverage of policy areas by the 30 largest emitters
Source: http://newclimate.org/2015/12/01/good-practice-policies

19. 19
Option 2: rating the stringency of a
policy package
Source: Allianz Energy and Climate Monitor: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/31/allianz-climate-and-energy-monitor/
For a similar method for all sectors see: http://climateactiontracker.org/publications/publication/120/Assessment-of-Mexicos-policies-
impacting-its-greenhouse-gas-emissions-profile-English.html
Indicator Weight
Incentives
1 National climate policy framework / strategy 20%
2 Target for electricity production or capacity addition from renewable energy resources (excluding
large hydro)
10%
3 Long-term transition strategy for the electricity system 10%
4 Support scheme for renewables or disincentives for carbon intensive electricity production 60%
Barrier 5 Fossil fuel subsidies that impact electricity production -10%
Rating support policies for renewables in electricity supply

20. Use different, complementary approaches to
assess climate action
• Macro-economic indicators – straight forward,
commonly used
• Effort sharing calculations – addresses fairness
and “who should pay” for mitigation
• Sectoral decarbonisation indicators – zooming in
on what is happening and is realistic on the sectoral
level
• A good practice policy package – focus on
concrete government action / inaction
www.ClimateActionTracker.org
www.newclimate.org
www.newclimate.org 20
Conclusions

21. www.newclimate.org 21
Backup slides

22. Harmonised country assessments: Provide national,
fast-response, harmonised assessments from a high-level
perspective for a large number of countries: around 30
countries covering around 80% of global emissions
• Emissions implications of INDCs
• Emission implications of implemented climate-change policies
• Comparison to effort-sharing calculations
• Comparison to emission reduction potential
• Tracking decarbonisation
Temperature increase: aggregation of national pathways
to global level and estimating the resulting temperature
increase
www.climateactiontracker.org
www.newclimate.org 22
Climate Action Tracker

23. Effect of “Intended nationally
determined contributions” (INDCs)
Source: Climate Action Tracker update, 8 December 2015
http://climateactiontracker.org/news/253/Climate-pledges-will-bring-2.7C-of-warming-potential-for-more-action.html
Su
Con
185
IND
imp
aro
a lik
res
IND
full
war
disc
glo
only 0.4% of global emissio
global emissions as “mediu
Conditional elements of IN
1.5 and 2°Cby roughly 2.8 G
Taking into consideration
more ambitious (4.6-7.8 Gt
benefits. For limiting warm
be closed by 20-34%.
23

24. Industry and buildings
Energy efficiency (EE) in the industry: room for wider policy coverage
EE in buildings: relatively well covered
Low coverage for non-CO2 emissions reductions
Fossil fuel subsidies still prevalent
www.newclimate.org 24

25. Transport and agri/forestry
>50% have support schemes for transport biofuels
Room for enhanced implementation of fuel efficiency standards
Fossil fuel subsidies still prevalent
www.newclimate.org 25

26. www.newclimate.org 26
Option 3: rating the stringency of a
policy package
Source: Allianz Energy and Climate Monitor: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/31/allianz-climate-and-energy-monitor/

27. 2020: 17% below 2005
2025: 26% to 28% below 2005
USA
27

28. 20% below 1990 in 2020
30% below 1990 in 2020 with ambitious international treaty
At least 40% below 1990 in 2030
EU
28

29. 2020: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005, 15% non-fossil energy, afforestation
2030: target to peak CO2 emissions at the latest, CO2/GDP by 60% to 65% below
2005, 20% non-fossil energy, afforestation
China
29

30. Comparing emission intensity of
power production
Source: https://newclimate.org/2015/12/04/faster-and-cleaner-decarbonisation-in-the-power-and-transport-sectors-is-surpassing-
predictions-and-offering-hope-for-limiting-warming/
www.newclimate.org 30

31. Methodology of the CAT country
assessment 2011
www.newclimate.org 31
Source: http://climateactiontracker.org/publications/publication/120/Assessment-of-Mexicos-policies-impacting-its-greenhouse-gas-emissions-
profile-English.html

32. Good
practice
policy
packages
www.newclimate.org 32
Source:
http://climateactiontracker.org/publications/pu
blication/120/Assessment-of-Mexicos-
policies-impacting-its-greenhouse-gas-
emissions-profile-English.html

33. 2020: 3.8% below 2005 (previously -25% below 1990)
2030: 26% below 2013
Japan
33

34. 2020: 3.8% below 2005 (previously -25% below 1990)
2030: 26% below 2013
Japan
34