Presentation from September 2021 CCXG Global Forum

1. RISKS OF LOSSES AND
DAMAGES FROM
CLIMATE CHANGE
CCXG Global Forum
15 September 2021
Marcia Rocha
marcia.rocha@oecd.org

2. The report addresses the full range of risks of losses and damages
from climate change and approaches to reduce and manage them
 Characterising uncertainties
− Scientific, socio-economic and technological
 Approaches to reduce and manage the risk of losses and damages
− Policy, finance and technology
 Taking the agenda forward
− Key messages and recommendations

3. • Extreme temperatures can
already happen at lower
levels of warming and in the
near-term;
• Model projections provide an
indication of the possible
range of extreme heat that
many regions could
experience over the next
century.
Clear characterisation of
uncertainties can help decision
makers understand and manage
the risks of losses and damages

4. The risks of lower probability, high impact events need to become central to risk
assessments. For example, the collapse of the overturning circulation in the
Atlantic cannot be ruled out even at levels of warming expected this century

5. Reducing and managing risks by addressing the components of
risks through decision-making under uncertainty
Source: IPCC (2014)

6. Reducing and managing risks: the role of policy
 Take a precautionary approach to reducing and managing climate risks
 Decision-making under uncertainty approaches: robust decision making,
storylines, adaptative pathways
 Decision making to be guided by collaboration across policy and science, but
also consider traditional knowledge
 Governments to act on reducing levels of vulnerability and exposure to threats
 Social factors: social norms and risk perception, change of established patterns,
potential loss of cultural diversity and heritage tied to the natural environment
(e.g. in SIDS), importance of non-economic losses and damages.

7. Increasing hazards threaten fiscal sustainability, particularly for SIDS and LDCs
Reducing and managing risks: the role of finance
IMF World Outlook Database 2021
The effect of repeated cyclones of Dominica’s government’s debt

8. Diverse set of instruments are needed to manage risks
Government
Private actors
Enabling environment
Social protection
Tax revenues
Contingent liabilities
 Ex ante
• Disaster risk funds
• Catastrophe bonds
• Insurance
• Investment in
resilience
 Ex ante
• Insurance
• Diversification
• Investment in
resilience
• Relocation
 Ex post
• Emergency budget
reallocation
 Ex post
• Selling assets
• Displacement
Development finance
Reducing and managing risks: the role of finance

9. Monitoring, modelling and managing climate risks depends on technological capabilities
Risk
governance
framework
 Long-term weather observations,
Earth observations, modelling
 Spatial data on demographics,
topography, rapid surveys etc.
 Social media, predictive analytics
Appraisal
 Real-time observation,
forecasting
 Long-term records, inventories
of extreme events, modelling
capabilities
Characterisation & Evaluation
 Weather & Climate Information
Services
 Geo-spatial, predictive analytics
 Remote sensing, crowd-source
data
 Communications capabilities
including for early warning
Management
 Underpinning observational
and modelling capabilities
 Social media, data analytics
 Early warning systems on
different timescales for
different hazards
Pre Assessment
Reducing and managing risks: the role of technology

10. Summary of emerging messages
• Take a precautionary approach to reduce and manage the risks of losses and
damages from climate change
• Shift from “predict and act” to approaches to decision-making under uncertainty:
− Improve understanding of the risks and the associated uncertainties
− Manage risks across different time and spatial scales
− Enhance societal capacity to support effective decision-making
• Design a more comprehensive architecture of international support for climate risk
finance
− Scale up international finance for climate action in developing countries
− Modalities of international support to reflect the impact of climate change on
countries' fiscal sustainability
• Enhance international efforts to support access to data and technologies to support
risk governance processes

11. THANK YOU!
www.oecd.org/env/cc/losses-and-damages