Explaining the characteristics underpinning the Brexit vote across different parts of the UK, by Resolution Foundation's Stephen Clarke and Matthew Whittaker.
Attitudes towards immigration: Survey conducted for IMiXIpsos UK
Perceptions over the impact immigration has had on Britain are on balance positive and are stable compared with two years ago according to a new Ipsos MORI study for IMiX, the migration communications hub.
The online survey of c.2,500 British adults is the latest in a unique longitudinal study which looks to track how individuals’ views on immigration and other values change over time. The latest survey finds that:
General attitudes towards immigration are more positive than negative
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Your Share of A Billion: The Promise of Digital PoliticalMediaPost
Political ad spending in 2016. Billions of dollars will be poured into different media outlets both big and small, national and local – but where can we expect the money to be going specifically? Does it take more or less ad money to run for Governor or for the U.S. Senate? And what media outlets are going to grab big shares of these dollars? By tracking ad dollars and evaluating projection models, we can get a close look at where all this money is going – and who stands to benefit. Furthermore, we will take a glimpse at 2020 to see how the landscape will change – and if the titans of political advertising will fall.
This presentation was given by Paraguayan Economist Fernando Masi at the Annual meeting of the Kansas Paraguay Partners, at the Dole Institute for Politics (University of Kansas). For more info about KPP please visit our website: http://kansasparaguaypartners.wordpress.com/
Attitudes towards immigration: Survey conducted for IMiXIpsos UK
Perceptions over the impact immigration has had on Britain are on balance positive and are stable compared with two years ago according to a new Ipsos MORI study for IMiX, the migration communications hub.
The online survey of c.2,500 British adults is the latest in a unique longitudinal study which looks to track how individuals’ views on immigration and other values change over time. The latest survey finds that:
General attitudes towards immigration are more positive than negative
Just under half (45%) say they’re positive about immigration’s impact on Britain while three in ten (31%) say they are negative (down 3 points). This remains stable after the increase in more positive immigration attitudes seen just before and after the EU referendum and is in line with other recent Ipsos MORI research.
Your Share of A Billion: The Promise of Digital PoliticalMediaPost
Political ad spending in 2016. Billions of dollars will be poured into different media outlets both big and small, national and local – but where can we expect the money to be going specifically? Does it take more or less ad money to run for Governor or for the U.S. Senate? And what media outlets are going to grab big shares of these dollars? By tracking ad dollars and evaluating projection models, we can get a close look at where all this money is going – and who stands to benefit. Furthermore, we will take a glimpse at 2020 to see how the landscape will change – and if the titans of political advertising will fall.
This presentation was given by Paraguayan Economist Fernando Masi at the Annual meeting of the Kansas Paraguay Partners, at the Dole Institute for Politics (University of Kansas). For more info about KPP please visit our website: http://kansasparaguaypartners.wordpress.com/
Education in the American South: Historical Context, Current State, and Futur...Jeremy Knight
The deck provides a detailed analysis of academic outcomes in Southern states, placing them in historical, economic, and political context. It also traces the development of public schools in the South and shows that the modern education reform movement has its roots in the South, where strategies like accountability, charter schools, private school choice, and school governance reform were first piloted.
The slides to accompany an interview with Dougald Hine, in which I mutter at a digital audio recorder about constitutional politics, economics and financial collapse.
Political risk and trade finance TXF conference - Nov 2014Damian Karmelich
Asia is at the nexus of global trade flows and is critical to the health of the global economy. The region accounts for more than 35 percent of the world’s trade and is forecast to contribute over 45 percent of global GDP in the coming decade. Yet its success is not assured. Among the many challenges are a series of political events and trends that threaten the region’s trade flows and the financial infrastructure that underpins them.
This presentation examines political risk in the Asia region drawing on Political Monitor’s Asia Political Risk Index. It includes, an analysis of key trends and events likely to influence the politics of the region, a review of regional hotspots, an in-depth examination of political risk in key markets, and a discussion of the implications of political risk for trade flows and finance.
Education in the American South: Historical Context, Current State, and Futur...Jeremy Knight
The deck provides a detailed analysis of academic outcomes in Southern states, placing them in historical, economic, and political context. It also traces the development of public schools in the South and shows that the modern education reform movement has its roots in the South, where strategies like accountability, charter schools, private school choice, and school governance reform were first piloted.
Education in the American South: Historical Context, Current State, and Futur...Jeremy Knight
The deck provides a detailed analysis of academic outcomes in Southern states, placing them in historical, economic, and political context. It also traces the development of public schools in the South and shows that the modern education reform movement has its roots in the South, where strategies like accountability, charter schools, private school choice, and school governance reform were first piloted.
This compares the 20 richest nations in the degree to which their policies are compassionate. The policies cover child well-being, health, environment, non-violence, integrity, social justice, civil society, and generosity.
Get insights into how Americans feel about the state of the economy, its impact on their household income, and how the political climate influences their economic outlook. Study contents include outlooks on the following:
1. Household Income
2. Personal Finances
3. Employment
4. U.S. Economy
5. Political Climate
An overview of recent population trends in Illinois, its origins and potential implication. This research was compiled by Northern Illinois University researcher Brian Harger.
Working from home is a long-run growth opportunity. Many such workers bring their jobs with them or start their own business in part because it is harder to find a similar job locally. One key need is good, reliable broadband. Overall Oregon does better than much of the country in terms of working from home and broadband access, however gaps exist. Furthermore there are a lot of inequities regarding access to technology. Broadband is important for social, economic, and educational needs.
Education in the American South: Historical Context, Current State, and Futur...Jeremy Knight
The deck provides a detailed analysis of academic outcomes in Southern states, placing them in historical, economic, and political context. It also traces the development of public schools in the South and shows that the modern education reform movement has its roots in the South, where strategies like accountability, charter schools, private school choice, and school governance reform were first piloted.
The slides to accompany an interview with Dougald Hine, in which I mutter at a digital audio recorder about constitutional politics, economics and financial collapse.
Political risk and trade finance TXF conference - Nov 2014Damian Karmelich
Asia is at the nexus of global trade flows and is critical to the health of the global economy. The region accounts for more than 35 percent of the world’s trade and is forecast to contribute over 45 percent of global GDP in the coming decade. Yet its success is not assured. Among the many challenges are a series of political events and trends that threaten the region’s trade flows and the financial infrastructure that underpins them.
This presentation examines political risk in the Asia region drawing on Political Monitor’s Asia Political Risk Index. It includes, an analysis of key trends and events likely to influence the politics of the region, a review of regional hotspots, an in-depth examination of political risk in key markets, and a discussion of the implications of political risk for trade flows and finance.
Education in the American South: Historical Context, Current State, and Futur...Jeremy Knight
The deck provides a detailed analysis of academic outcomes in Southern states, placing them in historical, economic, and political context. It also traces the development of public schools in the South and shows that the modern education reform movement has its roots in the South, where strategies like accountability, charter schools, private school choice, and school governance reform were first piloted.
Education in the American South: Historical Context, Current State, and Futur...Jeremy Knight
The deck provides a detailed analysis of academic outcomes in Southern states, placing them in historical, economic, and political context. It also traces the development of public schools in the South and shows that the modern education reform movement has its roots in the South, where strategies like accountability, charter schools, private school choice, and school governance reform were first piloted.
This compares the 20 richest nations in the degree to which their policies are compassionate. The policies cover child well-being, health, environment, non-violence, integrity, social justice, civil society, and generosity.
Get insights into how Americans feel about the state of the economy, its impact on their household income, and how the political climate influences their economic outlook. Study contents include outlooks on the following:
1. Household Income
2. Personal Finances
3. Employment
4. U.S. Economy
5. Political Climate
An overview of recent population trends in Illinois, its origins and potential implication. This research was compiled by Northern Illinois University researcher Brian Harger.
Working from home is a long-run growth opportunity. Many such workers bring their jobs with them or start their own business in part because it is harder to find a similar job locally. One key need is good, reliable broadband. Overall Oregon does better than much of the country in terms of working from home and broadband access, however gaps exist. Furthermore there are a lot of inequities regarding access to technology. Broadband is important for social, economic, and educational needs.
How to RSS Feed in Search Engine Optimization and their Benefits.karthikzinavo
RSS stands for "Really Simple Syndication" (or) “Rich Site Summary”. It is a way to easily distribute a list of headlines, update notices, and sometimes content to a wide number of people. It used to organize those headlines and notices for easy reading.
Its used to keep track of their favorite websites.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
Shaping the Future - Neil Bruce's speech at the Empire Club of CanadaSNC-Lavalin
Turning around a company in a fast consolidating industry that has faced ethical concerns raises the stakes and presents multiple challenges. Decisions and direction taken today shape a company’s future. So what are the components that not only meet long term objectives, but also ensure sustainable growth for the long term? Neil Bruce will outline his thoughts on how engineering shapes our world for the better, and what it takes today to succeed as an international E&C firm.
Professional itself portrays Seasoned.. A completeness in knowledge about the subject.... This is the important ingredient in today's competitive market to have a successful survival...
Presentation by OECD Chief Economist, Laurence Boone, on Inclusive Growth at the farewell conference in honor of Governor Karnit Flug, The Van Leer Institute in Jerusalem, 4 November 2018
A modelling approach to establish whether or not there is a north-south divide in the UK in terms of home ownership. Data used included UK Census and UK Quarterly Labour Force Survey
Grade: 78%
Anthony Szary, Regional Statistician for the West Midlands at the Office for National Statistics, speaking at a workshop on population change hosted by the West Midlands Regional Observatory in Birmingham on 31 March 2009.
This study addresses the determination of the municipal income tax rate. In the theoretical public choice model introduced in this study we specify the central hypothesis, which says that low-income earners using their voting power tend to take advantage of high-income taxpayers. Our findings
indicate that the median income earner will raise the municipal income tax rate the harder, the larger the difference is between the mean income and the median income. The evidence for this impact becomes stronger when it is conditioned on the voting rate. According to this, only if the voting rate exceeds a certain limit – which is quite close to the average voting rate – does inequality start to work in the direction expected. The larger inequality then raises the municipal income tax rate.
Presentation - Using open data to develop statistical literacy in schools - U...celiamac58
The data from Scotland’s Census 2011 provides a rich and detailed source of information for understanding Scotland and its population. The resource provides an excellent opportunity for educators and learners to explore Scotland’s past and to appreciate, as active citizens in a democratic society, how census records can be used to inform planning decisions that will shape Scotland’s future.
Neri conference 2015 income volatility and economic securityJason Loughrey
This is a presentation given at the third annual labour market conference of the Nevin Economic Research Institute at Queens University Belfast on May 1st 2015. The presentation deals with the recent history of household income volatility in Ireland and describes the resources that are required for the construction of an Economic Security Index for households in Ireland.
Building pressure? Rising rents, and what to expect in the futureResolutionFoundation
The combination of high house prices and stagnating incomes over recent decades, coupled with the decline of social housing, mean that millions more of us are private renters. And they are renting for longer too. Private rents have risen swiftly in the wake of the pandemic. What happens next matters hugely for millions of families, and yet the drivers of private rental costs are poorly understood with a range of explanations being proposed for the post-pandemic surge.
To what extent has landlords selling up driven the recent rise in rental prices? Or are other factors – such as earnings growth or higher interest rates – more significant? What should we expect the future to hold for rents? And what does this mean for renters, landlords, and policymakers?
The Resolution Foundation is hosting an in-person and interactive webinar to debate and answer these questions. Following a presentation of the key highlights from new research on what is driving recent trends in private sector rent levels, we will hear from leading experts on the short and longer-term outlook.
Game changer? Assessing the Budget’s economic, and electoral, impactResolutionFoundation
The upcoming Spring Budget may be the last big fiscal event before the General Election, one of few chances for the government to set the terms of the economic debate. And with the government trailing heavily in the polls, and the economy entering a mild recession at the end of last year, the pressure is on to make it a game-changing Budget economically and electorally. But the Chancellor will also have to confront real trade-offs if he’s deliver a Budget that works for both the next six months, and the five years after that.
How big are the Chancellor’s tax cuts? Do they change the big picture of the government’s wider tax raising plans? What is the outlook for public services after the election? Where does the government plan to take the social security system, as it copes with rising numbers of us being sick or disabled? And will any of this make any difference to who forms the next government, and what they’re able to do?
The Resolution Foundation is hosting an in-person and interactive webinar to debate and answer these questions. Following a presentation of the key highlights from the Resolution Foundation’s overnight analysis of Spring Budget 2024, we’ll hear from leading experts on what the Budget means for the election, and the economy.
Future Of Fintech In India | Evolution Of Fintech In IndiaTheUnitedIndian
Navigating the Future of Fintech in India: Insights into how AI, blockchain, and digital payments are driving unprecedented growth in India's fintech industry, redefining financial services and accessibility.
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
ys jagan mohan reddy political career, Biography.pdfVoterMood
Yeduguri Sandinti Jagan Mohan Reddy, often referred to as Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, is an Indian politician who currently serves as the Chief Minister of the state of Andhra Pradesh. He was born on December 21, 1972, in Pulivendula, Andhra Pradesh, to Yeduguri Sandinti Rajasekhara Reddy (popularly known as YSR), a former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, and Y.S. Vijayamma.
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
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role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
Welcome to the new Mizzima Weekly !
Mizzima Media Group is pleased to announce the relaunch of Mizzima Weekly. Mizzima is dedicated to helping our readers and viewers keep up to date on the latest developments in Myanmar and related to Myanmar by offering analysis and insight into the subjects that matter. Our websites and our social media channels provide readers and viewers with up-to-the-minute and up-to-date news, which we don’t necessarily need to replicate in our Mizzima Weekly magazine. But where we see a gap is in providing more analysis, insight and in-depth coverage of Myanmar, that is of particular interest to a range of readers.
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
27052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
1. The importance of place
Explaining the characteristics underpinning the Brexit vote
across different parts of the UK
Stephen Clarke & Matt Whittaker
July 2016
@mattwhittakerRF /@stephenlclarke/ @resfoundation
1
2. In analysing the EU referendum vote, geography
matters
2
• Post-referendum analysis has highlighted the importance of
demographic, economic and cultural factors on individuals’ vote
• In this note, we consider the importance of place; highlighting the
extent to which those same factors matter across 378 of Britain’s 380
local authorities
• We test the strength of the relationship between these different
factors and the vote while holding all else constant (using a series of
regression models) for England,Wales and Scotland
• We highlight some of the more important economic factors in
Section 1; demographics in Section 2; and cultural issues in Section 3
• We provide a full description of the regression results in Section 4
3. 3
1 PLACE AND ECONOMICS
Pay, employment and housing tenure
4. No relationship between voting patterns and median
hourly pay change since the early 2000s
Earnings were
subject to a pre-
crisis slowdown
across much of
the distribution,
followed by a six
year squeeze
that was
relatively evenly
felt
Simple
correlation finds
no evidence to
suggest depth of
the pay squeeze
affected the vote
Source: ONS, NOMIS 4
5. Though the strength of the leave vote does appear
to vary with the pay level
In the main, local
authorities with
higher levels of
median pay
recorded lower
votes for leave
Simple
correlation
implies relatively
strong
relationship
Source: ONS, NOMIS 5
6. But there are exceptions… with a clear division
between higher and lower paying groups
Can split lower
paying areas into
those with high
leave votes and
those with
relatively low
leave votes
Can similarly
split higher
paying areas into
those with low
leave votes and
those with
relatively high
leave votes
Source: ONS, NOMIS 6
8. No obvious correlation with employment levels, and
no clear differences across the four groups
Higher paying,
relatively high
leave areas
marginally more
likely to have
higher
employment
rates than higher
paying, low
leave areas, but
the differences
are slight
Source: ONS, NOMIS 8
9. But employment-vote relationship becomes much
clearer when we control for student numbers
Moving beyond
the simple
scatter chart,
regression
analysis shows
that
employment is
important once
the number of
students in an
area is controlled
for
Dots now show
clusters of LAs
Source: ONS, NOMIS 9
10. Home ownership levels also appear to matter, with
high owning areas more likely to vote leave
Big distinction
between
ownership in the
two higher
paying groups:
low leave areas
record much
lower levels of
ownership than
relatively high
leave areas
But this
distinction is less
marked between
the two lower
paying groups
Source: ONS, NOMIS 10
11. 11
2 PLACE AND DEMOGRAPHICS
Age, student population and immigration
12. As already touched on, the link with the number of
current students runs in the opposite direction
Students form a
higher
proportion of the
population in low
leave vote areas,
marking a clear
difference
between some of
the lower paying
areas
Higher paying,
relatively high
leave vote tend
to have relatively
few students
Source: ONS, NOMIS 12
13. As does the size of the migrant population – i.e. the
higher the proportion of migrants in the local
population the lower the leave vote
Clear distinction
between higher
paying, low
leave and higher
paying, relatively
high leave areas
But distinction
not obvious in
relation to the
two lower paying
groups
Source: ONS, NOMIS 13
14. Yet on the face of it, there is no clear relationship
between the change in migrant population and leave
vote
Source: ONS, NOMIS 14
Based on a
simple
correlation, the
extent to which
the migrant
population has
changed in an
area since 2004
has little
correlation with
the leave vote
Data limitations
mean a number
of local
authorities are
missing from this
analysis
15. But the change in the migrant population does have
an effect once we take into account the size of the
migrant population in an area
Source: ONS, NOMIS 15
Regression analysis
controls for the
number of
migrants already in
an area
The leave vote was
higher in areas that
started the period
with relatively few
migrants but which
saw sizeable
increases – includes
Redditch,
Maidstone,
Gravesham and
Lincoln
17. Higher leave vote in areas that report lower levels of
‘cohesion’ (where different backgrounds ‘get on’)
Difference is
most marked
between the two
lower paying
groups: lower
paying, high
leave areas
record lower
cohesion than
lower paying,
relatively low
leave areas
Findings remain
even after
holding all other
factors constant
Source: DCLG, Hub Interchange 17
18. Simple correlation highlights apparently very strong
correlation with education levels
Having a
qualification
equivalent to
NVQ level 4 (i.e.
degree level) or
higher is key
difference
Separates both
the two higher
paying groups
and the two
lower paying
groups
Source: ONS, NOMIS 18
19. Source: ONS, NOMIS 19
With education showing correlation with culture,
demographics and economics – ‘cohesion’
Clear distinction
between levels of
‘cohesion’ in
areas with
highest and
lowest
proportions with
NVQ4+
Lower-skilled,
less-cohesive,
high-leave areas
include
Thurrock,
Boston &
Burnley
20. Source: ONS, NOMIS 20
With education showing correlation with culture,
demographics and economics – non UK-born population
Similar strength
of correlation
between
education and
level of migrant
population in the
local authority
Higher-skilled,
higher-migrant,
low-leave areas
include
Westminster,
Hammersmith
& Fulham and
Camden
23. Regression analysis isolates the impact of each
variable when holding all others constant
23
• The simple correlations set out above depict those factors that are
related to the strength of the leave vote in each local authority
• These factors are shown to be important in a number of regression
models.We isolate the explanatory value of each different factor,
holding all other factors constant
• Technically, we use a clustered standard errors approach
• Due to data availability, most of our findings relate to England only,
but we run separate models with fewer variables to identify the
Scottish andWelsh ‘effects’
24. Significant factors include economic, demographic
and cultural factors (England)
24
Regression analysis
controls for all
other factors to
highlight the
explanatory value
of each different
factor in turn
‘Significant’ results
are those with p
values of 0.1 or
lower
Statistically significant variables
(2015 unless stated)
Non-significant variables (2015
unless stated)
Employment rate
Students
Degrees
'Cohesion' (2008)
Change in non-UK born (04-15)
Home owner population (2011)
Median hourly pay
Change in median pay (02-15)
Non-UK born
Proportion of older to younger
Change in manufacturing
employment ('95-'15)
Posititvely correlated
(increases leave vote)
Negatively correlated
(reduces leave vote)
25. Significant factors include economic, demographic
and cultural factors (England)
25
• Results show, for example, that a 10ppt increase in the employment rate
is associated with a 1.4ppt reduction in leave vote (all else constant)
• Likewise, a 10ppt increase in the share of the population with NVQ4+
qualifications is associated with a 4.8ppt reduction in the leave vote
• In contrast, a 10ppt increase in home ownership rates increases the
leave vote by 4.1ppt
Statistically significant variables
(2015 unless stated)
Ppt change in leave vote assoc.
w/ 10ppt increase in variable
Average across
English LAs
Employment rate -1.4 75.4%
Students -5.0 5.4%
Degrees -4.8 36%
'Cohesion' (2008) -4.1 77%
Change in non-UK born (04-15) 3.1 4.2%
Home owner population (2011) 4.1 66%
Negatively correlated
(reduces leave vote)
Posititvely correlated
(increases leave vote)
26. 26
Relative to the SouthWest (which voted broadly in
line with the UK average), regional ‘effects’ are visible
Holding constant
factors such as pay,
education, migration
and cohesion, local
authorities in
Scotland recorded
leave votes that
were 12ppts lower
than in the South
West
In contrast, areas in
theWest Midlands
recorded leave votes
that were 3.6ppts
higher than in the
SouthWest
ppt change in leave vote associated
with the region
Statistically significantly different from South West vote
Scotland -12.01***
North West -2.876***
Wales -2.771***
Yorkshire and the Humber 1.632***
East Midlands 1.727***
North East 2.077**
West Midlands 3.624***
Not statistically significantly different from South West vote
London 0.565
South East 0.694
East 0.202
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
27. 27
Full regression results
England
Including
Wales
Including Wales &
Scotland
Median hourly pay ex. overtime (logged) -2.068 -3.298 4.218
Change in median pay (2002-15) -0.00386 -0.00930 -0.0511**
16-64 employment rate (2015) -0.141* -0.288*** -0.174*
Proportion of 50+ year-olds to 16-49 year olds (2015) 0.0154 -0.0182 0.0314
Students as proportion of population (2015) -0.502** -0.828*** -0.836***
Proportion of people with NVQ4 or higher (2015) -0.488*** -0.598*** -0.643***
Change in proportion of people in employment in manufacturing (1995-15) 0.0746 0.0623 -0.0223
Proportion of population who are migrants (2015) -0.0611 -0.0754 -0.241**
Change in the proportion of population who are migrants (2004-15) 0.312** 0.409*** 0.635***
Proportion of population who own home (2011) 0.342*** 0.301***
Proportion of population who believe people from different backgrounds get on well in local area (2008) -0.414***
Relative to South West
East 0.672 0.533 0.202
East Midlands 1.657*** 0.947** 1.727***
London -0.00474 1.207 0.565
North East 2.507*** 2.866*** 2.077**
North West -3.487*** -2.646*** -2.876***
South East 0.159 0.724 0.694
West Midlands 2.944*** 3.494*** 3.624***
Yorkshire and the Humber -0.0389 1.586*** 1.632***
Wales -3.682*** -2.771***
Scotland -12.01***
Constant 98.06*** 91.13*** 82.99***
Observations 235 251 271
R-squared 0.869 0.837 0.837
All models run with standard errors clustered by region *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
29. Economics clearly matter, but by no means the only
consideration
29
• Evidence that the geographical distribution of living standards influenced the
referendum vote, with employment having a significant effect
• But recent changes in pay appear not to have had a significant effect, implying
that living standard issues are long-established
• Demographics also matter, with areas with lots of students being more likely to
vote remain
• Cultural and geographical factors play a key role, represented by the importance
of feelings of cohesion within the local area, and by the tendency for different
regions to vote differently even after controlling for all other factors
• The level of migration doesn’t seem to matter but the pace of change over the
past decade or so does
• The strength of the correlation with higher qualification levels in an area is
particularly telling, with this variable closely associated with both economic and
wider cultural factors