Asia is at the nexus of global trade flows and is critical to the health of the global economy. The region accounts for more than 35 percent of the world’s trade and is forecast to contribute over 45 percent of global GDP in the coming decade. Yet its success is not assured. Among the many challenges are a series of political events and trends that threaten the region’s trade flows and the financial infrastructure that underpins them. This presentation examines political risk in the Asia region drawing on Political Monitor’s Asia Political Risk Index. It includes, an analysis of key trends and events likely to influence the politics of the region, a review of regional hotspots, an in-depth examination of political risk in key markets, and a discussion of the implications of political risk for trade flows and finance.

1. www.politicalmonitor.com.au
POLITICAL RISK ASIA
ECA-DFI Finance in Asia 2014
November 2014

2. WHAT IS POLITICAL RISK?
Political risk is the risk that derives from both the decisions of government
and the broader stability of a political system. It has the ability to impact
company valuations and influence long term commercial planning.
Political risk can emerge from any level of government – local, state or
national – and at any level of decision making – political or bureaucratic.
Political risk outlook 2

3. WHAT ARE WE FORECASTING?
• Relative likelihood – political risk forecasts provide guidance on the
likelihood of any event occurring and the implications for political
stability relative to other markets.
• Systemic weakness – political risk identifies those markets that are likely
to be overwhelmed by an unforeseen event due to institutional
weakness.
• Trends – political risk focuses on trends that speak to systemic issues
within a country that have long-term implications.
• Political economy – political risk analyses the way in which power
considerations influence economic decisions.
Political risk outlook 3

4. KEY INFLUENCING FACTORS
Political risk outlook 4
Environmental
Climate change
Water resources and
pollution
Biodiversity
Energy resources and
management
Bio capacity and ecosystem
quality
Air pollution
Natural disasters
Natural resources
Social
Human rights
Education and human
capital
Health levels
Political freedoms
Demographic change
Employment levels
Social exclusion and
poverty
Trust in society /
institutions
Crime and safety
Food security
Governance
Institutional strength
Corruption
Regime stability
Political rights and civil
liberties
Rule of law
Regulatory effectiveness and
quality
Accounting standards
Government finances

5. KEY INFLUENCING FACTORS
Political risk outlook 5
Environmental
Climate change
Water resources and
pollution
Biodiversity
Energy resources and
management
Bio capacity and ecosystem
quality
Air pollution
Natural disasters
Natural resources
Social
Human rights
Education and human
capital
Health levels
Political freedoms
Demographic change
Employment levels
Social exclusion and
poverty
Trust in society /
institutions
Crime and safety
Food security
Governance
Institutional strength
Corruption
Regime stability
Political rights and civil
liberties
Rule of law
Regulatory effectiveness and
quality
Accounting standards
Government finances

6. REGIONAL TRENDS

7. YOUTHFUL POPULATIONS OFFER SIGNIFICANT
ECONOMIC UPSIDE
Political risk outlook 7

8. BUT GIVING YOUNG PEOPLE JOBS IS CRITICAL TO
POLITICAL STABILITY
Political risk outlook 8

9. BUT GIVING YOUNG PEOPLE JOBS IS CRITICAL TO
POLITICAL STABILITY
Political risk outlook 9

10. BUT GIVING YOUNG PEOPLE JOBS IS CRITICAL TO
POLITICAL STABILITY
Political risk outlook 10

11. RISING FOOD PRICES ARE A CONSTANT SOURCE OF
POLITICAL RISK
Political risk outlook 11

12. RISING FOOD PRICES ARE A CONSTANT SOURCE OF
POLITICAL RISK
Political risk outlook 12

13. RISING FOOD PRICES ARE A CONSTANT SOURCE OF
POLITICAL RISK
Political risk outlook 13

14. THE DECLINE IN OIL PRICES DOES NOT BENEFIT ALL
MARKETS EQUALLY
Political risk outlook 14

15. HOT BUTTON ISSUES

16. WHAT ISSUES ARE CREATING TENSION IN THE
REGION?
• Disputed geography – disputes between China, Japan, South Korea,
Philippines and Vietnam over islands and ocean boundaries.
• US pivot to Asia – welcomed by US allies – Australia, Japan, South Korea
– but regarded by China as an attempt to constrain it in its own
neighbourhood.
• Energy – the pursuit of natural resources and control of the waterways
that allow access are a constant source of tension.
• The rise of China – tensions emerging from the above reflect underlying
concerns in the region about China’s rise and its political intent.
Political risk outlook 16

17. TENSIONS REVEAL THEMSELVES IN TRADE – trade
within & outside of trading blocs (Share of total goods
trade, %)
EU goods trade
34 31 32 36
NAFTA goods trade
49 48 48 48
5 8 10 12
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Political risk outlook 17
ASEAN goods trade
73 68
4
7
65 63
10 13
23 24 25 24
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2003 2006 2012
Intraregional Trade with China
Global (ex China)
64 66 64
59
2
3 4
5
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2003 2006 2012
Intraregional Trade with China
Global (ex China)
46 45 42 40
0
2000 2003 2006 2012
Intraregional Trade with China
Global (ex China)
Source: McKinsey Global Institute

18. TENSIONS REVEAL THEMSELVES IN TRADE – Japanese
trade with China
Political risk outlook 18

19. COUNTRY ANALYSIS

20. COUNTRY IN FOCUS –
China: HIGH– 43/100
• China’s demographic dividend has been banked
and the country is now entering a period in which
its population will decline and age. This will result
in demand for increased social services while
there will be less working age people to fund
those services.
• Nearly 15% of China’s population officially lives
below the poverty line. Unofficial figures suggest
the number is closer to 30%.
• China’s one-party rule and intolerance of dissent
removes legitimate avenues to express
grievances pushing those tensions underground
or into illegal and potentially violent protests.
• China ranks 80th on the Transparency
International global Corruption Perceptions Index.
The country is experiencing strong year-on-year
growth in public protests largely related to official
corruption.
Political risk outlook 20

21. COUNTRY IN FOCUS –
India: MODERATE– 38/100
• India’s low external debt, relatively low levels of
inequality, youth unemployment below the regional
average and robust electoral process all support a
moderate risk profile for India. Furthermore, the
proportion of household budgets spent on food and
fuel has declined markedly overly the last 2 years.
• Around 30% of business investment derives from
Indian firms indicating confidence in the domestic
economy.
• However, a number of key risks are present. While
youth unemployment is proportionally similar to
other nations at 10.5% the raw number of young
people unemployed is in the tens of millions.
Combined with a population in which 30% are under
the age of 15 and around 60% under the age of 30
this creates the potential for civil unrest amongst a
volatile component of the community capable of
expressing public dissent.
• The percentage of Indians living below the poverty
line is approaching 30%.
Political risk outlook 21

22. COUNTRY IN FOCUS –
Indonesia: MODERATE– 36/100
• Indonesia’s outlook has improved significantly
over the last 12 months dropping from a VERY
HIGH to MODERATE risk.
• Despite some controversy and claims of
corruption the peaceful transition from one
democratically elected president to another is a
testament to the growing strength of
governance institutions.
• External debt is around half the regional
average and the level of domestic business
investment in the economy is relatively high and
growing. Both inequality and food security
rankings are better than the regional average.
• Ethnic and religious tensions simmer in the
regions. While the government has subdued
terrorist groups, underlying issues of youth
unemployment & rising inequality remain fertile
hunting grounds for extremists – youth
unemployment is twice the regional average.
Political risk outlook 22

23. COUNTRY IN FOCUS –
Myanmar: EXTREME– 83/100
• The Government of Myanmar has a poor track
record of reporting key data sets, which counts
heavily against the country in risk scores.
• Nearly one-third of the population live below the
poverty line; twice the regional average.
• Myanmar is one of the worst performing countries
on corruption and transparency indices.
• The country has low levels of investment from
domestic firms.
• The absence of free and fair elections and a large
proportion of the population under the age of 30
with poor employment prospects are a potential
source of social and political discord.
• Despite a long history as the rice bowl of the
region the country’s agricultural output has
declined over recent decades and ranks poorly on
food security indices.
Political risk outlook 23

24. COUNTRY IN FOCUS –
Philippines: VERY HIGH RISK - 64/100
• Large proportion of population under the age of
25 and a high youth unemployment rate exposes
the country to considerable turmoil. Youth
unemployment rate is currently higher than 17%
and more than 35% of the population are under
the age of 15.
• More than one quarter of the population live
below the poverty line and over 42% of
household budgets are dedicated to essential
foodstuffs indicating sensitivity to any price
shocks.
• Less than 20% of business investment derives
from domestic firms.
• The Philippines fairs poorly on the Transparency
International corruption perceptions index – 36 /
100
• External debt is less than half the regional
average.
Political risk outlook 24

25. COUNTRY IN FOCUS –
Thailand: MODERATE– 33/100
• Thailand ranks as one of the safest countries for
investors on the Asia Political Risk Index, which
has surprised some analysts given recent
events.
• However, the country has a number of
underlying strengths the first of which is a track
record of not allowing political crises to interfere
with business having experienced 18 coups
since becoming a constitutional monarchy in the
1930s.
• Most importantly for the country is a very low
level of youth unemployment and relatively low
levels of poverty. The fact that such a large
proportion of the country’s youth are engaged in
employment limits the risk of political discord
becoming social discord.
• Thailand also has relatively high levels of
domestic investment signaling local confidence
in the business outlook.
Political risk outlook 25

26. ELECTIONS (ACTUAL AND HOPED FOR)

27. COUNTRY IN FOCUS –
Japan: LOW– 5/100
• Prime Minister Abe’s decision to call an early
election is a demonstration of how political
events can emerge in even low risk countries.
• Abe led a coalition of his Liberal Democratic
Party and the New Komeito party that had a
majority in both houses of parliament. This
suggests that the decision to call an election
was more about re-asserting his authority in the
LDP than seeking a new mandate for economic
reform.
• Japan has a number of well documented
economic challenges; notably excessive
government debt, low growth and a constant
risk of deflation.
• However, its underlying social and political
accord remains firmly in place. Japan has
relatively low levels of youth unemployment, low
susceptibility to rising food prices, relatively low
levels of inequality and it ranks well on
corruption indices.
Political risk outlook 27

28. IN FOCUS – Hong Kong
• Events in Hong Kong have had little impact on
the risk outlook for the city with the political risk
spread remaining in negative territory; one of
the best rated areas in the Asia region.
• This suggests that markets do not believe the
recent protests will result in long term social and
political discord and that there are few
implications for business investment.
• However, the protests are a reminder that
political issues can emerge quickly and
unexpectedly.
• And as with most political risk issues a number
of underlying tensions are creating discontent,
which has found expression in concerns about
governance.
• House prices, education costs and employment
prospects are core concerns for protesters and
their supporters and anger about these issues
has been latent for many months.
Political risk outlook 28

29. To find out more contact:
Damian Karmelich Steve Cusworth
Partner - Sydney Partner - Melbourne
p. +61 407 772 548 p. +61 417 178 697
e. karmelichd@politicalmonitor.com,au e. cusworths@politicalmonitor.com.au
About Political Monitor
Political Monitor is a political risk research and advisory firm. Our analysis provides
insight into the implications of political risk for commercial valuations, asset selection,
investment decisions, strategic planning and operational decisions.
Political risk outlook 29

30. DISCLAIMER & COPYRIGHT
Disclaimer
Information in this document is subject to change without notice and does not represent a commitment on the part of Seller.
Seller does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of any of the data and/or programs (“Information”) available within the report.
The Information is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to, implied warranties of
merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title or non-infringement.
In no event will Seller or its affiliates be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, special, consequential or other damages for any use of or
reliance upon the Information found within the report, or on any other reference documentation, including, without limitation, lost profits,
business interruption, loss of programs or other data, even if Seller is expressly advised of the possibility of such damages.
The disclaimer is in addition to the specific terms and conditions that apply to the products or services offered by Seller.
Copyright
Copyright © Political Monitor Pty Ltd 2014. This document is copyright and contains confidential information that is the property of Seller. Except
for the purposes of executing or applying this report, no part of this document may be copied, stored in a retrieval system or divulged to any
other party without written permission. Such rights are reserved in all media.
Intellectual property rights associated with the methodology applied in arriving at this document, including templates and models contained there
in, reside with Political Monitor Pty Ltd, excepting client information it contains that is demonstrably proprietary to the client or covered by an
agreement or contract defining it as such.
No part of this report may be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system, or translated into any language in any formby any means,
without the written permission of Political Monitor Pty Ltd.
© Political Monitor Pty Ltd 2014. All Rights Reserved . ACN 166 162 572.
Political risk outlook 30

31. APPENDIX 1 – POLITICAL RISK SPREADS
• The Political Monitor political risk spread is a proprietary score that quantifies the component of a
country’s sovereign risk spread (the difference between yields on 10 year US Treasuries and
comparable debt in respective countries) attributable to political factors such as stability of
government, judicial independence, corruption, poverty levels, food security and a range of
demographic factors such as the size of the population under the age of 30.
• The political risk spread allows investors to make a clearer distinction between the different types of
risk that influence sovereign yields. This approach means investors can distinguish between political
risks and more general economic risks when assessing country specific investments.
• The scores are refreshed daily for countries where publicly available data on bond yields are
available. They are general in nature and do not take into account the capacity of individual firms to
manage and mitigate political risk in each market.
• Political Monitor provides political risk spreads for 15 nations across Asia and 7 in which Australia’s
major mining companies have operations.
Political risk outlook 31

32. APPENDIX 2 - ECONOMIC & INVESTMENT IMPACT OF
POLITICAL & SOCIAL INSTABILITY – DOES IT MATTER?
• Political risk is the second ranked concern for publicly traded companies … "Looking ahead, investors
continue to be wary about the effects of systemic risk, politics and regulation on the world's markets and
how they'll perform.” (BNY Mellon, Global Trends in Investor Relations, 2014).
• In general political instability results in:
• (a) lower economic growth (Aisen & Veiga, 2013)
• (b) reduced private sector investment (Alesina & Perotti)
• (c) increased inflation levels & volatility (Aisen & Veiga, 2008).
• The economic effects of political & social instability remain for an observable period of 2 – 3 years. The key
determinant of whether the effect of instability ceases at that point is the speed with which countries
implement reforms & improve governance (Bernal-Verdugo, Furceri & Guillaume, IMF Working Paper,
2013).
• An increase in economic policy uncertainty foreshadows a decline in economic growth and employment in
the following months (Baker, Bloom & Davis, EPU).
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the economic loss to Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Yemen,
and Bahrain in 2011 at USD$20.56 billion as a result of political and social conflict.
Political risk outlook 32