The operators’ 4G challenge Small cells – part of a wider network Evolution of C-RAN Early adopters How the two architectures support each other Next steps to HetNet

1. Small cells and C-RAN: can
they work together?
Caroline Gabriel
Research Director
Maravedis-Rethink
Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis
CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
1
Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2014.

2. Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
February
2014
The operators’ 4G challenge
Small cells – part of a wider network
Evolution of C-RAN
Early adopters
How the two architectures support each other
Next steps to HetNet
www.maravedis-bwa.com
CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL
2
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3. February
The 4G Challenge
New topologies needed200 profitable 4G
for
180
160
140
120
$bn
• Operators must invest to
handle 13fold rise in
mobile data
• With conventional
technology, 4G capex will
outrun revenue at least
until 2017
• Solution: new
infrastructure topologies
and intelligence
• LTE not enough on its own
– a new way to build
networks is needed for 4G
to deliver full benefits
2014
100
80
60
40
20
0
2013
2014
2015
Capacity investments
2016
2017
2018
Data revenues
Operator predicted capacity capex vs revenue
Source: MOSA, MaRe survey 65 carriers
www.maravedis-bwa.com
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4. February
Two architectures
2014
Macro and small cell layers – new economics
350
•
•
•
•
•
Compact
small
cells
overtake
macrocells in numbers 2014, by capex
2016
Small cell sales reach 15.2m in 2017,
CAGR of 240%
But this could be chaotic capacity
Move towards two architectures –
distributed and metrocell
Macro base stations increasingly
deconstructed leading to Cloud-RAN
Intelligence focused in core or at the
edge? Key to have intelligence end-toend
300
3,500
3,000
250
2,500
,000 units
•
4,000
200
2,000
150
1,500
100
1,000
50
500
0
0
2013
2014
Macrocell
2015
2016
C-RAN
2017
2018
Small cells
Small cell and C-RAN macrocell growth
Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
www.maravedis-bwa.com
Source: MOSA
Source: MOSA, MaRe survey 65 carriers
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5. February
Many tools needed
•
•
•
Operators will use many tools
Rising value of access to LTE
spectrum and fiber
But many other tools in play to
achieve capacity
New technology
LTE upgrade
Wi-Fi offload
Public access small
cells
Deconstructed RAN
(RRH and distributed
antennas)
New or refarmed
spectrum and carrier
aggregation
LTE-A key features
CoMP, eICIC
Adaptive
networking/SON
2014
% of required
capacity increase
17%
16%
14%
% of required TCO
decrease
14%
20%
18%
11%
17%
17%
9%
14%
10%
11%
12%
Capex spend on 4G RAN by base station type
www.maravedis-bwa.com
Source: MOSA
Source: MOSA, MaRe survey 65 carriers
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6. February
Technology milestones
C-RAN part of a broader trend
•
Build on existing trend to separate radio
head from baseband, RRH, base station
hotel
•
RRH becomes intelligent antenna array
•
Enablers - antenna/radio integration;
Active Antenna System
•
2014
Elements of C-RAN
•
Baseband processing virtualized for
>50 BTS per central server blade
•
Each BTS can be further extended
with low cost antennas
•
Source: VPISystems
Target $50 cell site at low power
www.maravedis-bwa.com
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7. February
Early deployers
The first trials
•
•
•
•
•
•
China Mobile driving ecosystem
• Intel, ALU etc
KT Cloud Communication Center
• ‘Connect and Development’ to
address intercell interference
NTT Docomo Advanced C-RAN
• AAS trials, driving Supercell and
Phantom Cell
SK Telecom SCAN
• Seoul 1722 RUs, 609 DUs, 200K
repeaters
European interest eg DT
All major small cell deployers also
www.maravedis-bwa.com
2014
C-RAN at China Mobile. Source: Intel
Source: MOSA
Source: MOSA, MaRe survey 65 carriers
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8. February
What’s needed to reach reality?
2014
Key steps still required to hit new economics
• A C-RAN which integrates fully with small cells and Wi-Fi
– Key enablers – CoMP, SuperCell
• A C-RAN architecture which does not require fiber at every
cell site
– Key enablers – CPRI over microwave, CPRI/DAS integration,
wireless fronthaul
•
Commoditized software and chip platforms
– Key enablers – off-the-shelf Intel or ARM processors, common
programming languages, ultra-low cost modem
www.maravedis-bwa.com
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9. February
C-RAN challenges and solutions
Integration with small cells
2014
• Advanced C-RAN – master BTS
• Small cells and distributed antenna extend BTS
• Shifts economics again
www.maravedis-bwa.com
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10. February
C-RAN challenges and solutions
SDN and elastic networking
• Software driven
capacity
• Dynamic switching of
capacity in urban areas
• Move to SDN – C-RAN
one app in NFV
• But specialized
processing and local
presence also needed
www.maravedis-bwa.com
2014
C-RAN in the NFV, Intel
Source: MOSA
Source: MOSA, MaRe
survey 65 carriers
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11. February
Developments
2014
• More processing power at the
edge
• Distributed core
• Virtualized core and RAN
functions
• Backhaul
• Advanced SON, location and
presence
• Changes to OSS/BSS approaches
• Operator confidence
Source: Intel
www.maravedis-bwa.com
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12. February
Macro interworking
Small cells achieve full potential
• Hybrid architectures
10,000
800
9,000
700
8,000
7,000
600
,000 sites
• Key trends
• Cloud-RAN
• Super Macro
900
6,000
500
5,000
400
4,000
300
3,000
200
• Integration of these technologies
• Offload
• Super sites
• CoMP
,000 sites
• Macro layer continues to evolve too
2014
2,000
100
1,000
0
0
2013
2014
C-RAN primary sites
2015
2016
C-RAN sub-sites
2017
2018
Small cells inc WiFi
Cloud-RAN deployments
Source: Tearing the Network Apart; The economics of the
new RAN, Maravedis-Rethink October 2013
www.maravedis-bwa.com
Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2013.

13. February
Evolution of HetNet
The two layers converge in Elastic network
•
•
•
•
2014
Carriers’
ultimate
goal
is
heterogeneous network
Full interworking and hand-off
between macro layer and metro layer
Different technologies (3G, 4G, WiFi)
in different spectrum bands behave
as single pool of capacity
Common core, management and
policy tools allocate resources where
most needed
The HetNet evolves. Source: ASOCS
www.maravedis-bwa.com
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14. Contact Information
Adlane Fellah, Customer Engagement
(305) 865-1006
(514) 313-5656
info@maravedis-bwa.com
http://www.maravedis-bwa.com
http://www.rethinkresearch.biz/
www.linkedin.com/in/adlanefellah
www.twitter.com/maravedis
MaravedisRethink
www.maravedis-bwa.com
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