Brochure Mosa Q3 2012 Qr


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Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis

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Brochure Mosa Q3 2012 Qr

  1. 1. November 2012MOSA Quartely Report – Issue 19Mobile Operator Strategies Analysis CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 1 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  2. 2. November 2012Hard Data + Disruptive Analysis =Research CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  3. 3. Analyst Team November 2012 Adlane Caroline Robert Cintia Fellah Gabriel Syputa Garza Customer Engagement Research Director Senior Advisor Market Analyst LATAM Miami London Seattle Mexico Esteban Basharat Luis Magnus Monturus Ashai Reyes Johansson Market Analyst Regulatory Backhaul and RAN Research Senior Operator Advisor APAC and MEA Lima Barcelona Mexico CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  4. 4. Introducing MOSA November 2012 Deliverables:Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis Online Database• The new evolution of 4G Counts Monthly Research Notes• Comprehensive data on the mobile broadband strategies of operators, plus unrivalled depth in qualitative analysis Quarterly Reports and forecasting• Operator Profiles, KPIs Device Forecasts• Spectrum, Network and device Strategies• SWOT Analysis• Investment Forecasts by Global Spectrum Operator Wireless Watch & 5 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012. Analyst time
  5. 5. November 2012 Structure of MOSA DRIVERS CHALLENGES SOLUTIONSMOSA Matrix• Top 100 4G operators analyzed against 10 key trends identified by MaRe for their impact on the 4G business case • Small cells and HetNet • Multiband LTE deployments including carrier aggregation In each key topic area, gold • TD-LTE and converged FD/TD-LTE standard operators selected • Voice strategies including VoLTE and analyzed in depth for • LTE-Advanced deployment/contribution their market leadership in the • Cloud RAN area. The business case and • Machine-to-machine services prospects of others are • Advanced backhaul strategies assessed against the same • Mobile cloud services criteria. • Innovative applications including vertical markets CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 6 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  6. 6. November 2012 Key Components of MOSACore MOSA data – top 100 4G operators. Tracking their networks, spending plans, business models, technology platforms. In-depth strategic profiles of key players.Backhaul Service Data, forecasts and full analysis on key backhaul technologies, trends and operator behaviour with detailed research notesCell Service Data, forecasts and full analysis on key RAN technologies, trends and operator behaviour with detailed research notes on topics such as small cells and C-RAN.4G Forecast Service Five- year forecasts for 4G RAN, device, subscriber and other key metricsClearSpectrum Comprehensive database and analysis on 4G spectrum .Total Disruption Identifying and forecasting the next technologies which will change the mobile landscape CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 7 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  7. 7. November 2012 Table of Contents (1) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 SECTION 1. DRIVERS 17 Mobile broadband traffic and forecast Mobile cloud services and forecast SWOT SKT Carrier apps and APIs, trends and forecast SWOT Telefonica Digital SECTION 2. CHALLENGES 30 Capacity crunch versus revenue squeeze Spectrum availability Global spectrum trends for LTE Quarterly developments Subsidies and device costs, trends and CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 8 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  8. 8. November 2012 Table of Contents (2) SECTION 3. SOLUTIONS 44 Small cells and HetNet, trends and forecast Challenges SWOT KDDI Carrier Wi-Fi Multiband and carrier aggregation SWOT AT&T TD-LTE trends and forecasts SWOT China Mobile The quarter’s deployments and highlights TDD/FDD convergence Challenges SWOT 3 Europe Advanced backhaul strategies Small cell backhaul SWOT China Mobile Cloud-RAN trends and forecasts M2M CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 9 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  9. 9. November 2012 Table of Contents (3) Challenges and outlook SWOT Vodafone Voice and VoLTE strategies SWOT MetroPCS SECTION 4. TRENDS AND FORECASTS 74 FD-LTE Market Trends LTE subscriber trends and forecasts LTE data speeds and prices by region LTE contracts by vendor LTE device ecosystem – form factor and vendors WiMAX trends and forecasts Deployments Devices and base stations SECTION 5. FORECAST DATA 2012-2017 99 APPENDIX: List of LTE roll-outs worldwide June to October 2012 CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 10 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  10. 10. November 2012EXECUTIVE SUMMARYMobile Operator Strategies Analysis CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 11 11 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  11. 11. November 2012 Executive Summary At the heart of the new Mobile Operator Strategy Analysis (MOSA) service is the MOSA Matrix. This assesses the Top 100 4G operators against the 10 key technology and business trends, identified by Maravedis-Rethink as critical for business success. For the third quarter of 2012, the following operators were identified as leaders in these areas: TRENDS OPERATOR Small Cells/HetNet KDDI Multiband LTE/carrier aggregation AT&T TD-LTE roadmap China Mobile VoLTE and voice strategies MetroPCS FDD/TDD convergence 3 Europe Advanced Backhaul strategies China Mobile Mobile Cloud services SK Telecom M2M services Vodafone Europe Carrier Applications inc vertical Telefonica CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  12. 12. November 2012 Executive Summary Selected research highlights in the MOSA key trends TRENDS HIGHLIGHTS Small Cells/HetNet Small cell sales reach 15.9m by 2017, exc WiFi Multiband LTE/carrier aggregation CA to unlock underused bands for LTE esp L-band TD-LTE roadmap TD-LTE capex $2.3bn in five years, 31% of 4G total VoLTE and voice strategies VoLTE stems voice revenue decline with rich comms services but does not generate ARPU growth FDD/TDD convergence By 2017, 83% of LTE devices capable of dual-mode Advanced Backhaul strategies Fiber only 10% of small cell backhaul links 2017 despite huge projects eg China Mobile Mobile Cloud services 74% of mobile data volume by 2017 M2M services 20% of carriers say M2M will be number one source of revenue growth 2013-17 Carrier Applications inc vertical Telefonica and SKT alone target $12bn from carrier apps CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  13. 13. November 2012 Executive Summary MOSA Key trends: Operators are struggling with explosion in over-the-top data, but they are regaining some control. Key tactics are: •tiered tariffs and lower subsidies •mobile cloud services eg SK Planet. Will add $60 incremental ARPU by 2017 •carrier APIs By 2017 operators will have added $150 in average annual ARPU from entirely new services driven by LTE. Key examples: •M2M and smart grid •Mobile cloud especially enterprise •Multiscreen content delivery Mobile operators will have invested a total of $34.7bn in the period from 2012 to 2017 in 4G infrastructure. That level of spend flattening out by 2017. By 2017, LTE subscriber base will reach 875.75m, 75% of these on the networks of the MOSA Top 100 CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  14. 14. November 2012 Sample SWOT: Vodafone Group M2M• Largest European M2M operator by S. W. connections (8.3m Q212), second in •Huge scale •Too reliant on slowing world to AT&T •Multinational services EU market• Growth rate 26% pa in devices, 33% •Important long term •Limited control of in revenue – squeeze on ARPU partnerships eg Bosch, module ecosystem• Some key partners and customers: IBM •ARPU already declining – Auto (BMW) rapidly – Smart home (leads Smarter Home Initiative with IBM) – Smart grid (British Gas) O. T. – Industrial (integrated platform with •Expand alliances •Fragmented market, Bosch) beyond EU heartland different proposition• Focuses on managed services, •Leverage existing strong needed for each sector working with many module and SIM pact with China Mobile •Cloud-focused Asian makers •Create added value operators expanding to services on top of M2M Europe• We expect M2M to be in its top three framework •Device support issues generators of additional revenue from LTE by CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 15 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  15. 15. November 2012 Sample Forecast We have produced two LTE subscriber forecasts: 1. MOSA Operator Forecast: Based on input from operators themselves, this indicates the numbers for the key carriers, included in our top 100 2. Total Industry Forecast: Including estimates for the whole operator base, Maravedis-Rethink anticipates that by 2017 there will be approximately 875 million LTE CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL 16 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.
  16. 16. TO ORDER OR TO REQUEST A LIVE DEMO, CONTACT: Adlane Fellah, Customer Engagement Maravedis-Rethink US Land: +1(305) 865 1006 15 Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2012.