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Southeastern Ontario is host to a number of orchid species, including a number of
threatened/endangered ones. Orchid rustling is also a problem in the area, as some species can
fetch hundreds to thousands of dollars.
You have been hired by the Manitoba Orchid Society to develop a predictive model/map of where
such endanger species might exist in SE Manitoba but where they have not yet been discovered.
1. How would you go about developing such a predictive model?
2. How would you determine how good the model you developed is at predicting the location of as-
yet undiscovered occurrences of various rare orchid species?
3. What should be done with your predictive map (which could show the location of undiscovered
occurrences of various orchids)? Should it be released to the public, kept by the Ontario Orchid
Society, or should something else be done with it? Explain why you made the choice you made
about what to do with this model.

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  • 1. Southeastern Ontario is host to a number of orchid species, including a number of threatened/endangered ones. Orchid rustling is also a problem in the area, as some species can fetch hundreds to thousands of dollars. You have been hired by the Manitoba Orchid Society to develop a predictive model/map of where such endanger species might exist in SE Manitoba but where they have not yet been discovered. 1. How would you go about developing such a predictive model? 2. How would you determine how good the model you developed is at predicting the location of as- yet undiscovered occurrences of various rare orchid species? 3. What should be done with your predictive map (which could show the location of undiscovered occurrences of various orchids)? Should it be released to the public, kept by the Ontario Orchid Society, or should something else be done with it? Explain why you made the choice you made about what to do with this model.