presentation of the Foresight Study in the AKIS-3 report on the future of the Agricultural Knowledge and Innovationn System, given in the EAAE seminar in Igls,Austria

1. Anticipating the future: scenarios for
resilient institutions in agricultural research
and innovation
Foresight study for the EU SCAR-AKIS working group
Krijn Poppe, Floor Geerling-Eiff, Trond Selnes LEI Wageningen UR
IGLS, February 2016

2. Back to the Future
(c) 1961 Chicago Tribune – Closer than we think

3. Scenarios: qua vadis?
Strong government
Room for markets and networks
Con-
serve Develop
(c) Poppe et al, 2009

4. National States
Many actors
Coope-
rative
Non
coope-
rative
Multipolair
• Power blocks
• Economic and politcal
competition
• Protectionism
Fragmentation
•Stagnating globalisation
•Insecure society
•Identity first
Multilateral
• Strong west and upcoming BRICs
• Global governance reformed
• Globalisation continues
Network
• Non-polair world order
• Global market economy and civil
society
• Unpredictable
Four scenarios on Scarcity and Transition
4© De Ruijter Strategie
Food
• Every block (EU. VS, China etc.) handles
scarcity differently
• Management of transitions
• No food scarcity in Europe, water scarcity
in Southern Europe only
• No real change in food system in Europe,
but crises management : active control
policy like food stocks, water buffers for
periods of disruption and drought
• Water transport in Europe from North to
South (depending on costs and benefits)
• European policies are needed, steering
with Common Agricultural Policy – the
return of Mansholt to increase production
to self sufficiency levels
• Consumption of meat will be discouraged

5. SCAR – AKIS 3rd report
 AGRICULTURAL KNOWLEDGE AND INNOVATION
SYSTEMS TOWARDS THE FUTURE - a foresight paper
● Innovation and the role of AKIS
● AR and ARD – worlds that come together
● ICT as a driver of change in the agri and food
sector
● The role of E-science in agricultural research
● Foresight: towards the AKIS of the future
● Changing role for advisory services
● Epilogue – recommendations / mandate AKIS-4

6. Europe towards
2030
3 scenarios to
explore the future
of EU agriculture +
implications for
Agricultural
Knowledge and
Innovation
Systems

7.  HighTech: strong influence new technology owned by
multinationals. Driverless tractors, contract farming and a
rural exodus. US of Europe. Rich society with inequality.
Sustainability issues solved. Bio-boom scenario.
 Self-organisation: Europe of regions where new ICT
technologies with disruptive business models lead to self-
organisation, bottom-up democracy, short-supply chains,
multi-functional agriculture. European institutions are weak,
regions and cities rule. Inequalities between regions,
depending on endowments.
 Collapse: Big climate change effects, mass-migration and
political turbulence leads to a collapse of institutions and
European integration. Regional and local communities look
for self-sufficiency. Bio-scarcity and labour intensive
agriculture. Technology development becomes dependent on
science in China, India, Brazil.

8. Methodology and approach
 Scenario Planning Shell (Van der Heijden, 2004)
 Horizon Scan (STT, 2015): societal challenges and signals for
change
 Scope: 2030 for AKIS, based on signals for change towards
2050
 Workshop Bari, Italy with AKIS experts ->59 drivers for AKIS
 Internet survey: 120 experts scored drivers on impact and
relevance
 Workshop SCAR-AKIS, 30 experts: mini-scenario’s were built
based on the results. Developed into to 3 scenario’s
 Analysis and interactions with Foresight Expert Group (SCAR)
on the bioeconomy

9. Societal challenges: 59 drivers for change
 Societal signals, for instance:
● Emergence of 3D printers, also for food
● Reduction of solidarity and welfare state
 Technological signals, for instance:
● Robots outperform humans
● Food and Pharma integrate
 Ecological signals, for instance:
● Desertification due to sudden climate change
 Economic signals, for instance:
● Growth of the experience economy
 Political signals, for instance: falling apart EU

10. Scenario 1: High Tech
multinationals, clean technology, strong EU
(c) Toshiba

11. Scenario 2: Self organisation
new business models, regions and cities rule, diversify
Tempelhof, Berlin (c) Kasper Jensen

12. Scenario 3: Collapse
climate change, migration, breaking up of the EU

13. AKIS in the different scenarios: economics
High tech Self-organization Collapse
Economic
Geographic International,
specialized techno-
logical orientation
Regional, general
orientation, food and
non-food, diversity
Individualistic, local,
holistic orientation,
food as basic priority
Financial Large private R&D,
IPR, minimum
public R&D
Mix public-private
means, new actors
AKIS, ‘decision
overload’, dynamic
food policy
Small private R&D,
individual but rising
community thinking,
familiar
Role of
consumer
Indifferent, issue
management (e.g.
GMO) via NGOs
co-creation and
incident oriented
issue management
Because food is nr. 1
priority, no big quality
issues

14. AKIS in the different scenarios: political
High tech Self-organization Collapse
Political
Governance AKIS centralized
and privatized,
technology driven
AKIS decentralized
and diverse topics,
PPP
AKIS fragmented and
local, farm/food
driven
Role
govern-
ment and
policy
Minor role for
governmnts,
multinational
business models
dominate
Government active on
community level,
mixed ppp & regional
public finance
More local groups and
focus on individuals,
fragmentation, rising
importance agro
sector in policy
Food
safety
Trust, monitored by
large companies,
certifications and
global institutions
Trust in civil society is
high via
transparency:
‘arguments count, not
positions’
Trust needs
rebuilding infrastruc-
ture, gvnmt frag-
ments are influential

15. AKIS: technology, knowledge, innovation
High tech Self-organization Collapse
Technology, knowledge and innovation
AKIS skills
/competence
‘Up-skilling’,
specialized know-
ledge & skills
‘Multi-skills’, efficien-
cy, territorial and
value competition
‘Basic-skills’, problem
oriented on basics as
food, soil and water
Focus of
AKIS
Global food chains
and flows, product
oriented
Adaptations regional
setting (cooperatives),
farm system oriented
Food composition
(nutrition) and usage
Tools in
AKIS
Global, benchmarks,
economic efficiency
and labelling,
thematic cross-overs
Demos & regional
network tools,
institutional efficiency
(best practices)
‘Must reach all’
interaction; small
group learning, trial
and error
European
Research
programs
Large PPP EC +
multinationals JPI
and KIC survive,
ERA-nets disappear
Very differentiated
landscape AKIS,
difficult to find linking
instruments, role EU
connecting dots
EU hardly relevant,
negotiating global
deals on acquiring
basic knowledge,
donors from Asia

16. Recommendations to make AKIS more
robust
 Research on ICT and its governance
 Cross-overs between agriculture and other sectors
 Big Data
 Social sciences, including economics
 Interactive, transdisciplinary innovation
 Public-private partnerships
 Involvement of regional authorities and cities
 Excellent Research Infrastructures
 International collaboration
 A real European Research Area is a prerequisite

17. Some final remarks
 Scenarios are not predictions
 But a tool for strategic conversation: how can we make
our world more resilient ?
 Over the last 20 years many countries have decided to
make changes in their AKIS
 Scenario studies like this one could help to be prepared
for future changes

18. Thanks for your
attention
Questions ?
krijn.poppe@wur.nl
www.lei.wur.nl