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Trends for future farming
1. Transitions at farm level in the years to come
Krijn J. Poppe Agreenium, Dijon
Wageningen UR April 2019
2. Krijn J. Poppe
Business economist, EUR 1981
Chief Policy Analyst Wageningen Economic Research
Rli – Council for the Environment & Infrastructure:
member of the council (1 day / wk)
Fellow and former Secretary-General of the EAAE
● Involved in its journal management (ERAE, EuroChoices)
Member South Holland Council for Environmental Advise
Member of the Governing Board of SKAL
EU Projects; SCAR-AKIS 1-3 and Chair Experts Food2030
3. Content
It’s the economy, stupid.
Need for a food system approach
Climate change and - policy
Key innovation challenges
The role of ICT – and why now
Future farm organisation
Three scenarios
4. tijd
Mate van verspreiding
van technologische revolutie
Installatie periode
Volgende
golf
Uitrol periode
Draai-
punt
INDRINGER
EXTASE
SYNERGIE
RIJPHEID
Door-
braak
Werkeloosheid
Stilstand oude bedrijfstakken
Kapitaal zoekt nieuwe techniek
Financiele bubble
Onevenwichtigheden
Polarisatie arm en rijk
Gouden eeuw
Coherente groei
Toenemende externalities
Techniek bereikt grenzen
Marktverzadiging
Teleurstelling en gemakzucht
Institutionele
innovatie
Naar Perez, 2002
Crash
2008
1929
1893
1847
1797
time
Degree of diffusion of the
technological revoluton
Installation period
Next
wave
Deployment
period
Turning
point
IRRUPTION
FRENZY
SYNERGY
MATURITY
Big Bang
Unemployment
Decline of old industries
Capital searches new techniques
Financial bubble
Decoupling in the system
Polarisation poor and rich
Golden age
Coherent growth
Increasing externalities
Last products & industries
Market saturation
Disappointment vs
complacency
Crash
2008
1929
1893
1847
1797
Institutional
innovation
Based on Perez, 2002
The opportunity for green growth
1971 chip ICT
1908 car, oil, mass production
1875 steel
1829 steam, railways
1771 water, textiles
5. Food chain: 2 weak spots – opportunity?
Input industriesFarmerFood processorConsumer Retail
• Public health issues –
obesity, Diabetes-2 etc.
• Climate change asks for
changes in diet
• Strong structural change
• Environmental costs
need to be internalised
• Climate change (GHG)
strengthens this
Is it coincidence that these 2 are the weakest groups?
Are these issues business opportunities / market failure?
Or system failure and lack of transformative capacity?
7. Five major challenges
Food and nutrition security and safety
Climate change and water & energy use
Reducing ecological impacts (biodiversity)
Healthy diet for a lifelong healthy lifestyle
Inequality
8. We need clarity for farmers, fast.
Less animals is not an objective, but cannot be escaped
Animal husbandry and climate
9. We need clarity for farmers, fast.
• After 30 years milk quota, >40 years manure policy, this is the
new issue and limit to growth
• Innovation must start up (feed, slurry/manure, breeding,
stables)
• Risk of ‘stranded assets’, for the chain, for banks
• Current government intentions are only the beginning, starts
with low hanging fruit.
Less animals is not an objective, but cannot be escaped
• Innovation is needed, with lower number of animals these are
not by definition more sustainable.
• Objective is so big that other farm systems with more value
added per kg, with less animals should be taken into account.
Number of animals or export is not a purpose in itself, value
added matters.
• Contribution of lower consumption is more than welcome
• Dutch government starts already to restructure pig farming
10. Five major innovation areas
Genetics
Digitalisation and big data
Energy and bio-based transitions
Redesigning the food chain
Social innovations
12. Recipe for change:
An agenda for a climate-smart and
sustainable food system
for a healthy Europe
Krijn Poppe,
Chair Food 2030 Expert Group
https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/d0c725de-6f7c-
11e8-9483-01aa75ed71a1/language-en
13. Grand challenge:
A climate-smart, sustainable food system for a
healthy Europe
3 mission-type approaches
(with 17 focus areas):
A.Improve dietary patterns and lifestyles for a 50%
reduction in the incidence of Non-Communicable
Diseases in 2030, while reducing the environmental
impact of food consumption
B. Create a resource-smart food system with 50% lower
GHG-emissions by 2030
C. Realise trust and inclusive governance for a resilient
and safe food system
13
15. INPUT
INDUSTRY
FOOD
PROCESSING
FARMERS ICT
RETAIL
& OUT
of
HOME,
Food
Procesng
Health
sector
+ Cities
CONSU-
MERS
Less animal
based:
• Reduce GHG cattle
• Improve sustainb.
pigs and poultry
• New (lab) meat
and feed (insects,
algae etc.)
More plant based:
• Improve soil management
• Cope with climate change (water)
• Less chemicals, more biodiversity
• Improve factory farming
CIRCULAR PRINCIPLES
• Less waste
• More resource efficiency
• Close P-cycle
Help
Consumers
Change:
* personalised
nutrition
Green,
Healthy
Cities
Peri-urban
multifunctional
farms with short
supply chains
Help Empty
Rural Regions
Climate
change
Healthy diet
for a
healthy life
16. Sustainability: Incentivise farmers
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cost price
per 100
kg milk
Income per
Family
Labour unit
solvability
(%)
Energy use
per euro output
Water use per euro output
Pesticide use
per hectare
Grazing days
Education
Surplus of
Phosphate per
hectare
Surplus of
Nitrogen per
hectare
PEOPLE
PROFIT
<< PLANET >>
17. The role of ICT – and why now?
Based on work with WUR team (Sjaak Wolfert, Cor Verdouw, Lan Ge, Marc
Jeroen Bogaardt, Jan Willem Kruize and others)
18. Disruptive ICT Trends:
Mobile/Cloud Computing – smart phones, wearables,
incl. sensors
Internet of Things – everything gets connected in the
internet (virtualisation, M2M, autonomous devices)
Location-based monitoring - satellite and remote sensing
technology, geo information, drones, etc.
Social media - Facebook, Twitter, Wiki, etc.
Block Chain – Tracing & Tracking, Contracts.
Big Data - Web of Data, Linked Open Data, Big data
algorithms
High Potential for unprecedented innovations!
everywhere
anything
anywhere
everybody
19. Drones, Big Data and
Agriculture 19
IoT in Smart Farming
cloud-based event
and data
management
smart sensing
& monitoring
smart analysis
& planning
smart control
20. Towards smart autonomous objects
Source: Deloitte (2014), IT Trends en Innovatie Survey
Tracking &
Tracing
Monitoring
I am thirsty: water
me within 1 hour!
I am product X at
locatie L of Z
My vaselife is
optimal at a
temperature of
4,3 °C.
I am too warm:
lower the
temperature by
3 °C
Event
Management
I am too warm: I lower
the cooling of my truck
X by 2 °C.
I don’t want to
stand besides
that banana!
I am thirsty!
I am warm!
Optimalisation
Autonomy
21. There is a need for
ABCDEFs:
Agri-Business
Collaboration & Data
Exchange Facilities
• Large organisations have
gone digital, with ERP
systems
• But between organisations
(especially with SMEs) data
exchange and
interoperability is still poor
• ABCDEF platforms help
• Our focus: data governance
law & regulation
innovation
geographic
cluster
horizontal
fulfillment
Vertical
26. How many livestock farmers do we need?
Svend Rasmussen on Denmark (2011)
Optimal farm size, according to FADN data (and DEA):
● 2000: 174 cows; 712 sows
● 2007: 229 cows (on 258 ha); 1022 sows
Eurostat 2013
● 23.6 mln cows on 878,215 farms (27 cows/farm)
Assume optimal size in 2020: 300 cows
Then we need
• 80.000 dairy farms (= 9% of today)
• and 3.000 new entrants per year
27. Europe towards
2030
3 scenarios to
explore the future
of EU agriculture +
implications for
Agricultural
Knowledge and
Innovation
Systems
28. HighTech: strong influence new technology owned by
multinationals. Driverless tractors, contract farming and a
rural exodus. US of Europe. Rich society with inequality.
Sustainability issues solved. Bio-boom scenario.
Self-organisation: Europe of regions where new ICT
technologies with disruptive business models lead to self-
organisation, bottom-up democracy, short-supply chains,
multi-functional agriculture. European institutions are weak,
regions and cities rule. Inequalities between regions,
depending on endowments.
Collapse: Big climate change effects, mass-migration and
political turbulence leads to a collapse of institutions and
European integration. Regional and local communities look
for self-sufficiency. Bio-scarcity and labour intensive
agriculture. Technology development becomes dependent on
science in China, India, Brazil.
29. Scenario 1: High Tech
multinationals, clean technology, strong EU
(c) Toshiba
33. Resilience is defined as:
see: https://magazines.wur.nl/resilience-en/welcome/
Capacity to bounce back to normal functioning after
perturbation
Ability of a system to maintain specific functions in the
face of changes
Capacity to tolerate disturbance without collapsing
Capacity of a system to absorb disturbances and
reorganize while undergoing change in order to retain
essentially the same function, structure and feedback
Capacity of a complex system to deal with change and
continue to develop
33
Adaptive capacity of a system
to prevent collapse
Toelichten omvang opgave en tijdpad, ook of juist na 2030
better monitoring of production (resource use, crop development, animal behaviour)
better understanding of the specific farming conditions (e.g. weather and environmental conditions, emergence of pests, weeds and diseases)
Those sensors, either wired or wireless, integrated into an IoT system gather all the individual data needed for monitoring, control and treatment on farms located in a particular region.