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1 of 13
Source: Nesta
1. Research and analysis
- Micro-narratives
- Ethnography
- Big data: smoke signals
- Evidence mapping
- Horizon scanning
- Market intelligence
- Systems mapping
- Service safaris

7. Systemic impact
- Changing behaviour
- Changing laws and regulations
- Calibrating markets
- Understanding interaction of
technologies

2. Ideation and fostering
creative thinking
- Crowdsourcing
- Challenges
- Design tools
- Creativity methods
- Open innovation

6. Scale-up
- Organisational growth
- Spreading ideas
- Transferring practice
- Legislation
- Licensing
- Franchising

3. Experiment
- Rapid prototyping
- Service and process design
- User-design
- Co-design
- Behavioural insights
- Light-touch evaluation
- Randomised Control Trials
- Cost-benefit modelling

4. Business case development
- Market sizing and validation
- Business case analysis
- Independent replication of
evaluation

5. Replication of impact
- Policy design
- Programme design
- Business modelling
- Organisational design

Source: Nesta
Bi-weekly meeting

cafe
“The future is
already here — it's
just not very evenly
distributed”
- W. Gibson
Horizon Scanning
Scan and
Investigate

Action

Connect

Sensemake

Source: @stugreulich
Development Impact Bonds
• You have five minutes to find a definition and
three experts…
• In a Development Impact Bond, investors provide
finance for social interventions in developing
countries. The money is channeled to local public
and private service providers. Once independently
verified evidence shows that results have been
achieved, the government and donors repay the
investors their principal plus a financial return
linked to performance.
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leLZv0I-1nk
Horizon Scanning
Scan and
Investigate

Action

Connect

Sensemake

Source: @stugreulich
Horizon Scanning
• Quiz time: how quickly can you find…
• Think structure:
- Web searches
- Social media
- Magazines and journals
- Webinars
- Academics
- Roadmaps
- Pyramiding
• Lots of data available, but…
• Speak to people, go see for yourself, try it…
• Find dissonant voices as well as mainstream
• Follow up, re-connect, feed your network
Source: @stugreulich
Promises & Challenges of Foresight
PROMISES
• Creates Anticipatory
Awareness
• Challenges organisations
and management to think
• Drives innovation,
entrepreneurship, social
change
• Good strategy for dealing
with uncertainty

•
•

•
•
•

CHALLENGES
Too theoretical & abstract
Always methodologically
constrained
Disconnected from real
politik
Disconnected from
operations
People and organisations
are educated to demand
certainty?

Source: @stugreulich
cafe
Next time… RCTs
Don’t forget to bring some ideas of your own…

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Horizon scanning - Kolba cafe

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 4. 1. Research and analysis - Micro-narratives - Ethnography - Big data: smoke signals - Evidence mapping - Horizon scanning - Market intelligence - Systems mapping - Service safaris 7. Systemic impact - Changing behaviour - Changing laws and regulations - Calibrating markets - Understanding interaction of technologies 2. Ideation and fostering creative thinking - Crowdsourcing - Challenges - Design tools - Creativity methods - Open innovation 6. Scale-up - Organisational growth - Spreading ideas - Transferring practice - Legislation - Licensing - Franchising 3. Experiment - Rapid prototyping - Service and process design - User-design - Co-design - Behavioural insights - Light-touch evaluation - Randomised Control Trials - Cost-benefit modelling 4. Business case development - Market sizing and validation - Business case analysis - Independent replication of evaluation 5. Replication of impact - Policy design - Programme design - Business modelling - Organisational design Source: Nesta
  • 6. “The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed” - W. Gibson
  • 8. Development Impact Bonds • You have five minutes to find a definition and three experts… • In a Development Impact Bond, investors provide finance for social interventions in developing countries. The money is channeled to local public and private service providers. Once independently verified evidence shows that results have been achieved, the government and donors repay the investors their principal plus a financial return linked to performance. • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leLZv0I-1nk
  • 10. Horizon Scanning • Quiz time: how quickly can you find… • Think structure: - Web searches - Social media - Magazines and journals - Webinars - Academics - Roadmaps - Pyramiding • Lots of data available, but… • Speak to people, go see for yourself, try it… • Find dissonant voices as well as mainstream • Follow up, re-connect, feed your network Source: @stugreulich
  • 11. Promises & Challenges of Foresight PROMISES • Creates Anticipatory Awareness • Challenges organisations and management to think • Drives innovation, entrepreneurship, social change • Good strategy for dealing with uncertainty • • • • • CHALLENGES Too theoretical & abstract Always methodologically constrained Disconnected from real politik Disconnected from operations People and organisations are educated to demand certainty? Source: @stugreulich
  • 12. cafe
  • 13. Next time… RCTs Don’t forget to bring some ideas of your own…