Generic Biologics As A Tool For Evaluating The Safety And...

Generic Biologics As A Tool For Evaluating The Safety And...
1.Background/Statement Of Problem: Generic biologics (otherwise referred to as biosimilars or follow–on biologics), are described by the FDA as
biological products that are highly similar to already approved biological products, notwithstanding minor differences in clinically interactive
components and for which there are no clinically meaningful differences between the biosimilar and the approved biological products in terms of
safety, purity and potency [4]. Biosimilars are copies of approved biologics, whose patent protection has ended and are analogous to a generic
version of a chemically derived drug. Generic biologics are however more complicated to develop than a generic version of a chemically derived
drug owing to their complex structure and inherent variability [3]. The assessment of bioequivalence as a tool for evaluating the safety and efficacy is
based on the fundamental Bioequivalence Assumption that if two drug products are shown to be bioequivalent in average bioavailability, it is
assumed they will reach the same therapeutic effect and be used interchangeably [1]. However, characterizing generic versions of small molecules
drugs is considerably easier than characterizing biologic drugs due to several key characteristics [3], based on the fact that characteristics of biologics
are influenced by: choice of source materials (cell line), production process, purification process and the final pharmaceutical formulation. Differences
in
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The Signal And The Noise Book Report
The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail– but Some Don't is a book written by Nate Silver an American statistician and writer who
analyzes baseball and elections. The Signal and the Noise was published on September 27, 2012 in the United States after its first week in print it
reached the New York Times Best Sellers list as No. 12 for non–fiction hardback books. The Signal and the Noise opens with an Introduction that looks
at the rise of information availability over the past several centuries. It notes that though the increasing levels of information has lead to advantages in
many areas (such as boosting the economy), it has also increased the sheer amount of incorrect or misleading information (the 'noise') that exists in the
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In this chapter he talks about the swine flu 'epidemics' of the late seventies and of 2009 serve as an example of how extrapolation can lead to improper
predictions, particularly if you assume that things will keep proceeding as they have in the recent past. It notes that self–fulfilling and self–canceling
prophecies complicate the process of determining the future, by altering which directions the given traits proceed and altering their progress. The efforts
to change the progress of certain events, helping the good and thwarting the bad, mean that many traits change their course from their initial progress
(as when the swine flu outbreaks were stopped shortly after starting). Self–fulfilling predictions can be caused by the sheer act of releasing the
prediction. For example, when news about H1N1 flu is broadcast, more people go to doctors and more H1N1 is identified. Self–cancelling predictions
can also occur. Navigation systems show where the least traffic is but simultaneously invalidate the route by sending all traffic there en masse. Chapter
7 deals with the dangers of extrapolation and overly simplistic assumptions, using misfiring flu–predictions as an example. Also discussed here are
self–fulfilling and self–cancelling predictions. Often the very act of prediction can alter the way people behave (an observation that also John Adams
makes with regard to risk – a form of prediction, of course –

Spending Plan Research Paper
Planning and arranging are crucial controls for any association. They guarantee savvy usage of assets to expand benefit and efficiency. Associations'
techniques are inadequate without spending plans which give gauges of the money related endeavors that an association ought to subscribe to.
Profit does not simply happen. It must be arranged. Setting up a financial plan is essential, since without an arrangement there is no ability to know
east from west or clarity of reason at working levels, however it is critical to go about it the right path all together for the monetary allowance to be
valuable for the reasons it proposes. It needs to give medium term budgetary arrangements to all elements of a business. These capacities incorporate
promoting, creation, appropriation, organization, account, work, buying and ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Planning in this manner must adjust a characterized methodology and must think seriously about the assets accessible. Spending plans should build up
best practices by overseeing costs guaranteeing responsibility, setting exact and superior spending plan and the utilization of relative benchmarks. Best
practice for spending plans will likewise utilize devices, for example, adjusted scorecard and the building up of checking of the differences and putting
forward restorative arrangements of activity. In this manner, a prescribed way to deal with planning would incorporate setting the income piece of the
financial backing. This is then adjusted by re–altering the expense side of the monetary allowance. The individual's monetary controller can then have
entry to the next year's financial plan in view of chronicled information and

German Propaganda and its Effects on the Holocaust and...
German Propaganda and the effects on The Holocaust and WWII Propaganda in general is the idea of getting others to believe in one's own beliefs.
Propaganda is the "attempt to influence behavior...by affecting through the use of mass media of communications, the manner in which a mass
audience perceives and ascribes meaning to the material world."1 Propaganda was a major part of Germany's way to brain wash people into
following Hitler and his army. The theme of Hitler and Goebbels, (Paul Joseph Goebbels, was appointed Hitler's Reichspropagandaleiter, the Nazis
national director of propaganda), using propaganda, "was to merge the traditional German patriotism with Nazi ideological motifs"2, this was basically
used from1919 to 1945.... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Propagandist use words that are bland and euphemistic. Special appeals are to accommodate certain groups of people. The use of plain–folks is to
make the group believe that their ideas or views are "of the people"6. The band wagon use of propaganda is for people to think that since everyone
else is doing something, so should they. False connections leads to the technique of transfer. Transfer constantly uses symbols and its main purpose
is to "carry over the authority, sanction, and prestige of something we respect and revere to something the propagandist would have us accept"7. The
testimonial technique is when someone famous or someone that a person respects says something and since they say it, well then that must be right,
even if that person has no real knowledge of the statement made. The question of bad logic or propaganda is that there is logical and illogical
conclusions. The propagandist "deliberately manipulates logic in order to promote their cause"8. Another part of logical fallacies is unwarranted
extrapolation which basically is when the "communicator attempts to convince a person that a particular action will lead to disaster or to utopia"9.
Propaganda was spread in a variety of ways. Propaganda was used in posters and leaflets. Leaflets were mostly spread by bomber airplanes. Sometimes
the leaflets were hung under balloons (with a release mechanism) and floated over enemy country10.

Contagion: The Silent Killer
The Silent Killer
Contagion is a film that aims to scare people of how fast a disease can spread across the globe. Scientific experts got together to make the film as
believable and real as possible. Beth Emhoff is infected with at the time an unknown disease, giving her flu like symptoms.Since she only has a slight
cough, she believes it is just a cold. In reality, she has been infected with a deadly virus. As she travels, she begins to infect many other people in
China and the United States. This includes her son, Clark. Her and her son's health begin to dramatically decline within a number of days. They
eventually die and an autopsy is performed. The pathologists and other scientists discover that she has been infected with MEV–1. After ... Show more
content on Helpwriting.net ...
One of those things being how quickly they were able replicate the vaccine (Bhat). According to Raymond Zilinskas, "There is much to appreciate
about Contagion from a public health perspective. When the movie's CDC scientists explain the nature and course of the virus, we understand; the
mechanisms of person–to–person infection clearly described, and visual models demonstrating the spread of MEV–1 by day and then week are realistic
and appropriately frightening. The movie depicts, the panic that grows worldwide in a way that he thinks reflects what actually would happen in a
real–life situation. The movie dramatically portrays how a vicious pandemic could shred society: health systems are overloaded, food supplies runs
out, and transportation systems collapse. All of these effects are plausible. Yet far from everything in Contagion is believable: officials take
nonsensical decisions, the uses of biomedical science are unrealistic, and the portrayal of public health operations is incomplete" (Zilinskas). The film
also exaggerated the speed at which MEV–1 spreads and is considered implausible. Just five days after the index case is infected, the "WHO" is already
aware of a budding pandemic, and at Day 8 the CDC estimates as many as 267,000 people are infected worldwide. For a real–life comparison, SARS
was first detected in Guangdong Province, China, on November 16, 2002–but not identified; nearly three

Theme Of Confusion In Atonement
Confusion is an archetypal storytelling motif, seen in such classics as Julius Caesar by William Shakespeare as well as modern television. This motif,
whether it's referenced as the fog of war, confusion, or simply misconceptions, has progressed intriguing plots for centuries. Often, confusion follows
one seeking to find transparent, black and white truths where they don't exist. In modern literature, a prime model of the effects of confusion can be
seen in Ian McEwan's Atonement. Atonement, being a novel founded upon a principle of varied versions of reality created through
misunderstandings triggered by adolescence and a lust for control, shows how the act of seeking clear black and white answers in a gray world often
leads to a loss of control ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Briony, in her final note in the book, begins speaking of how she identifies the fact that she creates her own realities through her writing and,
reasonably, lives them out. She states, "how can a novelist achieve atonement when, with her absolute power of deciding outcomes, she is also
God?" (McEwan 350). Briony's experienced state shows how she has identified how her youthful state and her role as a novelist have created her
own versions of reality and that she cannot achieve atonement because it is something only she can give to herself. In other words, Briony has come
to the conclusion that she cannot be forgiven for actions, that she had lost control of her life when she tried to take control of it at a young age, and
how her youthful imagination had upset the worldly balance when it began tampering with the real world. Briony has clearly come to grips with the
idea that the world is not black and white; rather, it is a very indiscernible creation that can easily be corrupted by those who attempt to control

Kevin Tenorio. Dr. Stoycheva. Pol 601 Budget Analysis And
Kevin Tenorio
Dr. Stoycheva
POL 601 Budget Analysis and Financial Management
3 May 2017
Final Exam
1.How has the property tax changed over time for local governments? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the property tax as a revenue
source? In response to these questions, make sure to refer to the main principles of taxation (equity, efficiency, adequacy of revenue, political feasibility,
and cost of administration), tax and expenditure limitations, as well as the importance of revenue diversification for local government.
Historically, property taxes have been the primary source of the local government's income. In fact, approximately 70% of the local governments'
revenue stems from property taxes (Lee, Johnson, and Joyce, ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This could lead to that individual moving to another location, also known as gentrification. Political feasibility is high since it has historically been a
consistent source of revenue. Cost of administration would be relatively low since property taxes, in terms of keeping track of properties, is relatively
easy because of its tangibility and lack of mobility.
With respect to revenue diversification, local governments have attempted to diversify their sources of revenue by implementing one or a
combination of these taxes: sales taxes, income taxes, game of chance taxes (gambling, races, lotter, and their derivatives), user charge taxes, and
sumptuary taxes (cigarettes, alcohol, and their derivatives) (Lee, Johnson, and Joyce, 2013). In circumstances that affect the primary source of
revenue, having access to other sources may serve as a buffer for the local government. However, the problems with these sorts of taxes is uncertainty.
Property tax, as stated earlier is the most reliable while income or sales taxes rely on income/ salaried employees and consumption of products,
respectively.
2.Explain the major forecasting methods used by governments to forecast revenues and expenditures. Explain Florida's experience with the consensus
forecasting process. Discuss which methods are more likely to be used and for what revenue

Ferguson Williams Case
Defendant Layla Williams was charged with DUI, reckless driving, and voluntary manslaughter after a hit and run on December 26, 2015 3:00am
that left 24 Jeremy Hicks dead. The defendant contends that at the time of the crash her BAC levels were under the legal levels of 0.08 and that her
BAC has a slower metabolism rate due to hyperthyroidism. Yet, later on that morning at 8:00am Layla Williams was stop and arrested by Sergeant
Donald for reckless driving and he was able to administer a blood test, the results came up with a BAC level of 0.05. As a toxicologist I can use the
retrograde extrapolation method, to determine the BAC level around the time of the crash. "The elimination rate of alcohol from blood is usually not
known in any individual

Limiting Reagent Lab Report
Determine limiting reagent
H2SO4 + 2 NaOH в†’ Na2SO4 + 2 H2O
NaOH
H2SO4
Have
1.50g В± 0.67% * 1mol40.0g=0.0366 mol В± 0.67%
0.5 molL *0.02500 L В± 0.24% =0.0013 mol В± 0.24%
NaOH is limiting
0.0366 mol В± 0.67%
0.0366 mol NaOH В±0.67% *1 mol H2SO42 mol NaOH= 0.0183 molH2SO4 В± 0.67%0
H2SO4 is limiting 0.0013 molH2SO4В± 0.24% *2 mol NaOH1 mol H2SO4 = 0.0026 mol NaOH В± 0.24%
0.0013 mol В± 0.24%
There is not enough NaOH to complete the reaction therefore H2SO4 is limiting.
Table 2: Summary of data – moles of products
Moles of H2SO4
Moles of NaOH
Moles of NaOH (reacted)
Trial 1
0.0013 mol В± 0.24%
0.0366 mol В± 0.67%

0.0026 mol NaOH
В± 0.24%
Trial 2
0.0013 mol В± 0.24%
0.0390 mol В± 0.64%
0.0026 mol NaOH
В± 0.24%
Trial 3
0.0013 mol В± 0.24% ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Calculate percent error
The theoretical value for the neutralization of NaOH and H2SO4 is –57 kJ *mol–1, according to the CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics (W. M.
Haynes, 2015)
Percent Error = Experimental Value– Theoretical ValueTheoretical Value* 100
Theoretical Value =– 57 kJ *mol–1
Experimental Value =–80.9 kJ *mol–1
Table 6: Percent Error
Percent Error
Trial 1
40.3%
Trial 2
59.5%
Trial 3
30.9%
The experimental value for the neutralization of NaOH and H2SO4 was closest to the theoretical value, in trial 3, with an percent error of 30.9%. All
experimental values calculated were relatively high. This accounts for the heat loss through the coffee cup calorimeter, and the extrapolation of the data
to find the maximum

Health Forecasting Essay
Health forecasting is a novel region of forecasting, and an important apparatus for foreseeing future health occasions or circumstances, for example,
requests for health services and social insurance needs. It encourages preventive pharmaceutical and social insurance intercession systems, by
pre–illuminating health service suppliers to take suitable alleviating activities to minimize chances and oversee request. Health forecasting requires
reliable information, data and appropriate logical instruments for the expectation of particular health conditions or circumstances.
There is no single way to deal with health forecasting, thus different strategies have regularly been embraced to conjecture total or specific health
conditions. Then, there are no characterized health forecasting skylines (time spans) to coordinate the decisions of health forecasting methods
/approaches that are regularly connected. The essential standards of health forecasting have not likewise been satisfactorily depicted to manage the
procedure. This paper gives a brief presentation and possible investigation of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are essential for health
forecasting, including definitions, standards of health forecasting, and the ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Our pursuit system included: "health" and "forecast*" and mixes of terms, including "principle*", "information", "predict*", "model*", "method*",
"challenge*". In light of the titles and therefore on the digests, articles random to our goals were rejected. Extra writing ventures were done through
reference mapping of key papers and the chose papers and archives were incorporated and outlined by the set goal of this paper (Ozcan,

Regression Method Essay
The traditional method for the determination of the time lag resorts to a limited portion of the downstream pressure rise curve to perform the required
extrapolation to the time axis. When a numerical model is available, an alternative method to obtain the membrane properties is to fit the variation of
the pressure change in the downstream reservoir as a function of time using a nonlinear least squares method [30]. By minimizing the sum of squares
of the differences between the experimental data and the numerical model, the optimal combination of S and D can be obtained. The nonlinear
regression method has three advantages in diminishing the noise effect: 1) it uses the whole range of pressure data instead of only the quasi–steady state
... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The details of the CV system used in this work are described elsewhere [15,16]. The design of the downstream compartment allows varying the volume
for gas accumulation from 77.6Г—10–6 m3 to 1009.7Г—10–6 m3; at the same time, the effects of resistance to gas accumulation reported in ref.
[31–33] are minimized. The absolute pressure transducer (MKS model 627B11TBC1B) to monitor gas accumulation operates in a range of 0 to
1333 Pa (10 torr), with an accuracy of 0.0133 Pa (0.0001 torr) and a maximum error of 0.12% of the pressure reading. This level of precision is
typical of the best precision from pressure transducers currently available on the market. Prior to each experiment, the system is evacuated using a
rotary vacuum pump (Edwards model RV3) for at least 48 h, and just before the experiment, leak tests for both upstream and downstream sides of the
membrane are performed. During the leak tests, the vacuum pump is disconnected from the system and gas accumulation (if any) in the downstream
reservoir is monitored for a period of time (from 20 minutes to 1 hour depending on the duration of the experiment). The membrane used in the tests
was a solution–cast, high molecular polyphenylene oxide (PPO) film prepared by a spin–coating technique. The details of membrane preparation are
described elsewhere [34]. Other relevant experimental parameters are summarized in Table

Cross-Sectional-Point Prevalence Studies
To report: (1) on the background, design and methods of the Hypertension and Diabetes Risk Screening and Awareness (HYDRA) study, (2) on the
point prevalence of hypertension in primary care and (3) on the proportion of treated, controlled, and uncontrolled hypertension.
DESIGN:
Cross–sectional point prevalence study.
SETTING:
Representative nationwide sample of 1912 primary care practices in Germany.
PARTICIPANTS:
A total of 45,125 unselected primary care attendees.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:
Prevalence of hypertension based on doctor's diagnosis, self–reported diagnosis, and blood pressure (BP) measurements.
RESULTS:
A total of 39% of all patients and 67% of patients aged 60 years or older, respectively, were diagnosed by their doctors as

Revolution in Cosmology Resolves Dispute over Universe's Age
Revolution in Cosmology Resolves Dispute over Universe's Age
Just under seven years ago, astronomers using the Hubble space telescope presented results they hoped would help answer one of the most contentious
issues in astronomy of the 20th century – the question of the distance scale of the universe. But there was some unease when the result was announced.
According to the report, other galaxies were close enough that, extrapolating backwards from their current rate of recession and making adjustments for
the influence of gravity, they all would have been together (that is, the Big Bang would have occurred) as recently as 8 billion years ago.
Unfortunately, there was strong evidence already in place that some stars were at least 12–15 ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This problem wasn't solved until the 1920s, when Edwin Hubble devised the first method of extragalactic distance measurement. His technique relied
on stars known as Cepheid variables, whose luminosities can be easily determined by measuring their rates of pulsation. Comparing this luminosity
with the stars' observed brightness allowed Hubble to estimate the distance to Cepheid stars in such galaxies, affirming their extragalactic location.
That the universe extended beyond the Milky Way was already widely surmised, and this discovery didn't change much. The revolution came when
Hubble compared these newfound distances with the velocities of galaxies, which can be determined by measuring their color spectra. To his surprise,
he found the two to be nearly linearly correlated, leading to the conclusion that every galaxy is receding from every other galaxy, and the universe as a
whole is expanding.
How does this relate to the age and origin of the universe? The principle is really quite simple: if the velocity and distance to most galaxies are known,
one can extrapolate their motion backward to find the time that they were all compressed together at the moment of the universe's origin, the Big Bang.
The duration between then and now is the universe's age. Of course, a simple linear extrapolation won't do; the gravity resulting from matter in the
universe can be

Chloroalkanes
When looking at all three plots, the trend for all three properties is to increase as carbon number increases. This supports the information available
about melting and boiling point. The melting point and boiling point are the temperatures at which the molecules have enough energy to overcome the
intermolecular forces holding them together4. Melting point is the temperature at which a group of molecules changes from solid to liquid, and boiling
point is the temperature at which a group of molecules changes from liquid to gas. Enthalpy of vaporization is the heat that is required for a substance
to go change from a liquid to a gas.5 Melting point, boiling point, and enthalpy of vaporization all involve a required temperature or energy for a ...
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For these series both interpolation and extrapolation could be used with some accuracy. For alcohols, boiling point has a near linear relationship
with carbon number, and both interpolation and extrapolation could be used. The enthalpy of vaporization for alcohols does not have a direct
relationship with carbon number, and should not be interpolated or extrapolated. Melting point for all three series does not seem to follow any trend
except for a general trend of increasing as carbon number increases. Melting point seems to decrease for alkanes with odd numbers of carbons, and
increase with even numbers of carbons8. This is most noticeable between carbons 2 and 4 of the 1–monochloroalkanes and 1–monofluoroalkanes. The
reason for this drop between even and odd numbered carbon chains is believed to be a result of the way that these chains form in solids. The even
chained carbons are more stable, and require more energy to become

Paul's Case: A Study In Temperament
"Paul's case: A study in Temperament" by Willa Cather is representative of students coming of age in a world where everyone has a plan for them,
and they are forced into this mold. Paul believes that he is the only one going through this, and that is part of what makes it so hard for him because
he believes no one understands, even though most individuals experience this. This on top of many aspects of his temperament lead him to make rash
decision to go against everything that he has grown up feeling had oppressed him, but these decisions do not lead him to the happiness and peace of
mind he seeks, and he eventually commits suicide. The common The title "Paul's case: A study in Temperament" refers to the third person observation
of Paul, a... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
While there is no revelation of Paul's behavior or his personal understanding of the world around him, there is simply his initial comprehension of
what he sees and how he gets what he wants and then the end. This is incredibly representative of someone who is severely depressed because at
that point they only see the world as a horrible place where everyone is out to get them and they believe that things are perfect outside of their
lives, and the world is crashing down on them and them alone. Thus, up until the end of the story his temperament is very predicting of what is to
come and leads him to suicide as is often anticipated in cases like this where the individual does not recognize the issue and does not wish to
improve their lives. One behavior that is indicative of his temperament is how he is a compulsive liar, and does this for attention from his peers who,
at his age, are the most important people in the world where their opinions are all that matters. Paul creates these extravagant stories and will tell them
over and over again until his peers become uninterested and then he makes up something else new. Also, lying to get out of being in trouble because of

Comparing The Accounts From The Past Into The 20th Century
Introduction: This investigation will be comparing the transfers from the past into the 20th century. The aim of this investigation is to determine the
significant increase and change of money using the comparable sets of data of two different time frames of football transfers between 1984–1999 and
of 2000–2015. The usefulness of the results will provide statistics of how money has changed today and how it will affect the further future.
– 1984–1999 amount and year (variable 1) and 2000–2015 amount and year (variable 2) of transfers from two different time frames (comparable sets)
1984–1999 most expensive transfers
Christian Vieri = в‚¬43, 1999
Nicolas Anelka= в‚¬35.2, 1999
DenГlson = в‚¬30.9, 1998
Ronaldo= в‚¬27.2, 1997
Alan Shearer = в‚¬21.8, 1996
Gianluigi Lentini = в‚¬18.4, 1992
Gianluca Vialli = в‚¬17, 1992
Thierry Henry = в‚¬15.1, 1999
Jean–Pierre Papin = в‚¬14.8, 1992
Patrick Kluivert = в‚¬12.7, 1998
Roberto Baggio = в‚¬11.5, 1990
Andy Cole = в‚¬9.1, 1995
Ruud Gullit = в‚¬8.3, 1987
Edgar Davids = в‚¬7.1, 1997
Diego Maradona = в‚¬7.1, 1984
2000–2015 most expensive transfers
Gareth Bale = в‚¬100, 2013
Cristiano Ronaldo = в‚¬94.4, 2009
Luis SuГЎrez = в‚¬93.7, 2014
James RodrГguez = в‚¬79.5, 2014

ГЃngel Di MarГa = в‚¬75, 2014
Zinedine Zidane = в‚¬75, 2001
Raheem Sterling = в‚¬70, 2015
Zlatan IbrahimoviД‡ = в‚¬69, 2009
KakГЎ = в‚¬65, 2009
Edinson Cavani = в‚¬64, 2013
David Luiz = в‚¬62.6, 2014
LuГs Figo = в‚¬62, 2000
Radamel Falcao = в‚¬60, 2013
Fernando Torres = в‚¬58, 2011
HernГЎn Crespo = в‚¬56.5, 2000
Note* = currency

Why Demographic Trends Spell Trouble For China And Russia
Introduction All around us there are forecasts predicting the future. Whether it's an article in Forbes entitled "Why Demographic Trends Spell Trouble
For China And Russia – And Prosperity For US" predicting a prosperous economy for the United State and Canada in 2035 (Preston, 2015) or the CEO
of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg at the F8 2016 Conference unveiling his roadmap on what Facebook would look like in 10 years (Buxton, 2016). Both
are examples of prediction that use different forecast techniques to predict a future outcome. The article from Forbes, predicts a possible future due to
demographic trends, whereas, Mark Zuckerberg forecasts a preferably or probable future due to advancements in technology. However, there are
number of different forecasting techniques that are used today in business, government, and military to predict future outcomes. This paper looks at the
different techniques for forecasting the future and how some futurists use these different techniques for predicting future trends, technologies, and
events.
Forecasting Methods First it must be noted, that no forecasting technique can be certain, however, they can come close to a possible, preferable, or
probable future. Second, the further into the future the predictions the higher the uncertainty of the forecast (Gordon, 2009). The reason for greater
uncertainty is the possible of a wild card or black swam event happening that would be a total surprise and have a major effect on the long term

Hammond's View Of Sexuality As A Social Construction
I think that analyzing sexuality as a social construction, and importantly as one that is fluid–evolving with and responding to the social terrain it is
operating within–is necessary because it allows for reflection and revision. I agree with Hammond's sentiment that through erasure black women
have "lost the ability to articulate any conception of their sexuality" (133, Hammonds), however I believe it goes beyond a loss of ability.
Hammonds claims that not only are people of color often excluded from spaces that discuss the politics of sexuality, but that when they are granted
space to speak, a queer writer of color may find that "defining himself gay is not of the utmost importance" (129). That is to say that the intersection of
race and

Valerie Holliday's Masculinity In The Novels Of Philip K.
Valerie Holliday's essay 'Masculinity in the Novels of Philip K. Dick' discusses Dick's use of masculinity and gender, and parallels it to his life and
socio–political exploration. FindIt@Flinders states that the essay is a part of the 'peer reviewed journal' Extrapolation, 2006, Vol.47(2). Though
Extrapolation is identifiable as a credible journal that "invites papers on all areas of speculative culture" (Extrapolation: A Journal of Science Fiction
and Fantasy, 2015) I found no information about Holliday. Googling 'Philip K. Dick– masculinity' produces a multitude of reviews from blogs and
journals. Many discuss masculinity and men's struggles within Dick's work. Masculinity seems relevant, especially in the context in which Holliday
presents

What Is The Time Delay Parameter Uniform?
subsection{time delay parameter uniform} In the direction of numerical study of singularly perturbed partial differential equations with time delay,
much can be seen in cite{57,235,236}, and the references therein. In particular, the authors in cite{235} designed parameter uniform numerical
methods using the fitted mesh and fitted operator approach, respectively, which results in uniform convergence of first order in time and second order
in spatial direction. High order numerical methods are of great interest for the numerical community. They are fairly understood for singularly
perturbed problems without delay, see cite{221,237,238,239} and the references therein. Nevertheless, attempt of having higher order of uniform
convergence... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In the first step, the continuous problem is discretized only in time, resulting in a family of 1D linear stationary singularly perturbed problems
depending on the time discretization parameter. In the second step, those problems are discretized in space. The main advantage of this technique is
that it permits to analyze independently the contribution to the error of the time and space discretizations. Nevertheless, the method of cite{221} only
gives first order of uniform convergence in time variable. However, it is possible to combine this idea with the use of the Richardson extrapolation
technique applied only to the time discretization. Then, the fully discrete method gives second order of uniform convergence in time and almost fourth
order in space. So, the improved approximation is second order globally convergent in contrast with the first order proved in cite{221}. The
Richardson extrapolation technique has been used to approximate the solution of singularly perturbed problems, improving the numerical
approximation of a basic scheme in the case of 1D steady problems of convection diffusion type cite{253}, parabolic problems of reaction–diffusion
and convection–diffusion type cite{254,255}, and elliptic problems of convection–diffusion and reaction diffusion type cite{138,256}. In all that
papers, the main difficulties in the analysis of the uniform convergence of the extrapolated approximation were related with the

2015 Hill Lancet Summary
The 2015 Hill Lancet study was based on concerns about the increased costs and length of stay associated with falls during hospital stays. Specifically,
the study investigated the effectiveness of individualized falls–prevention education for patients at the ward level of a hospital, backed up by training
and feedback for staff. The following is a critique of this study using the Riegelman MAARIE framework.
Method: The study question investigated was; what impact will individualized fall–prevention education, supported by training and feedback for staff
reduce have on the number of falls during hospital stays? The study was a pragmatic study of patients admitted to one of 8 rehabilitation units in general
hospitals that were over sixty years old, with a projected hospital stay of at least three days, and had basic cognitive functioning. 3,606 patients admitted
were admitted to the eight units during the study period, with 1,983 in the control group and 1623 in the intervention group. The pragmatic nature of
the study is a strength given the nature of the intervention. However, the investigators do not explain the logic of limiting the study to patients over age
60, with a length of stay of at least three days, and this restricts the extrapolation of the results to these groups.
Assignment: The study ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The null hypothesis of no change or an increase in the number of falls is not in the CI indicating statistical significance. Also, lending to the statistical
significance was the fact that additional statistical testing was performed to account for the nature of the cluster– randomization. These tests
determined that the trial would have more than 80% to detect a 30% reduction in falls. Statistical testing was also completed to account for seasonal
fluctuations in patient volume. The rigorous nature of the statistical testing in this study is a

Pressure Ulcer Snapshot Study
Decision: to increase the frequency of pressure ulcer assessment. Definition of complex care in relation to case The expression 'complex care' denotes
the impact multifarious diagnoses and their subsequent implications have on an individual, and therefore the varying facets of care management
required. This may be due to physical, developmental, behavioural or emotional conditions requiring various long–term interventions to ensure survival
and positive quality of life (McPherson et al. 1998). A more recent paediatric specific definition, taking into consideration the advances in healthcare
leading to both increased survival rates and progress in medical technology, suggests that children with complex care needs may rely on long term
assisted... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
To justify this option the nurse needed to be certain that this would be concluded prior to the potential development of a pressure ulcer, requiring
knowledge of how quickly pressure ulcers can develop. National guidance regarding the necessity of repositioning children at risk of pressure ulcers
four hourly (NICE 2013) suggests that immobility exceeding four hours influences pressure ulcer development, however research into how quickly
pressure ulcers can develop, particularly in the paediatric population, is scarce. A frequently cited study into pressure duration influence found
external pressures exceeding a patient's diastolic blood pressure can bring about a pressure ulcer within 6 hours, and pressure four times the systolic
pressure can bring about a pressure ulcer in under 1 hour (Reswick and Rogers 1976, cited in Gefen 2008). Although etiologically useful, these findings
could be considered difficult to implement practically, given the complexity and feasibility of measuring such pressures regularly in

Examples Of Exegetical Fallacies
Your post on Exegetical Fallacies was insightful and thought–provoking. Before learning Greek, hearing preachers use Greek words throughout their
sermons fascinated me, and that pushed me to do more research and learn. As time moved on, I felt inclined to include Greek in my sermons
especially after Greek I. It seemed easy to research a passage, throw out a few Greek words, and move on. After studying Greek further, I discovered
that most preachers were misinterpreting and misapplying Greek words within their sermons. I have to agree that often times, even now; I may find
myself guilty of some of Carson's fallacies. Your example of the disciples and apostles misinterpretation shows how important it is to determine the true
meaning in the correct

Mathematical Extrapolation Technique For Predicting And...
Appendix B – Mathematical Extrapolation Technique for Predicting and Assessing Production Performance
In this section developments in graphical methods of assessing water drive performance are presented. An extensive number of graphical and
mathematical extrapolation techniques is available in the literature. A number mathematicalextrapolation methods were also assessed (not presented
here). Mathematical extrapolation technique presented by Dake (1994) was found to be quite effective in predicting future production performance
and in assessing the effects of any remedial actions which has taken place. The method was tested on two fields, namely Miller and Maureen.
Description of method proposed by Dake is presented below.
Examination of ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Conversion from surface volumes to reservoir pore volumes is performed using the following relationships:
N_pd=(N_p B_o)/(NB_oi )(1–S_wc)
W_id=W_i/(NB_oi )(1–S_wc)
Since 1PV=(NB_oi)/(1–S_wc )
Finally, the dependence of fractional flow at the producing end of the system on fractional flow at reservoir conditions is expressed using the classical
Buckley–Leverett fraction flow function: f_we=1/(1+B_o/B_w (1/f_ws –1))
It must be noted that in most water drive reservoirs before the water breakthrough, there is an initial period of depletion. The fractional flow
calculations, only take into account the oil recovered by water injection. Therefore calculations can be performed only after the water breaks through in
the producing wells.
Prediction of final oil recovery
If injection rates during the latter part of the flood are relatively stable, then 1/Wid function can be approximated by a straight line, which can be fitted
by equation of the form:
(Оґf_we)/(ОґS_we )=aS_we+b
Where a and b are constants. Integrating the equation results in quadratic function: f_we=a^2/2 S_we^2+bS_we+c
Where c is constant. Predicted values of fwe and Swe obtained by extrapolation of the quadratic equation above are then can be used in Welge equation
for predicting Npd as a function of fwe, which are then should be converted to surface conditions.
Miller Field
The data

My Learning Journey
My Learning Journey Xirui Liu Anna Contents List Executive Summary 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 1 Orientation 2 Chapter 2 Review 3 Chapter 3
Appraisal 4 Chapter 4 Planning 4 Chapter 5 Evaluating Progress 6 Chapter 6... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Meanwhile, I might encounter the difficult problems during the study time. The questions of exam are extremely tough and the amount is large, which
caused more than half of the students failed. The subjects of exam expand widely and the level is high. I also might sabotage my success by some
accidents. For example, If the applicant is involved in any of the following circumstancesпјЊthe institute of certified public accountants that has
received the application shall not permit the applicant to registerпјљ пј€3
пј‰if the applicant was subjected to an administrative sanctionпјЊor
removed from office or a more serious sanction, due to grave mistakes in financialпјЊ accountingпјЊauditing, enterprise management or other
economic activitiesпјЊ and the period between the date of the decision for such punishment or sanction and the date of application for registration is
less than two years. [1] Although I may be faced with the difficulties, I will still stay motivated by keeping studying in plan and reading more
business journals and information on the Internet to expand my thinking. At last, I need plan to improve my English and I should prepare for IEITS
text for one year. I think I will pass it when I am a sophomore. –5– Chapter 5 Evaluating progress In my view, I am able to recognize that I have
achieved my aims by an unified certificate for CPA. Because whoever has passed the unified national

Air Quality Plan Area
When talking about redevelopment that have the potential to add an additional 25,000 people to an existing population, one of the important factors
that need to be discuss is the air quality impacts. In the foreseeable future, with or without the implemented plans in the Plan Area will experience an
increase in population. According to Adam Brinklow, the author of How the city plans to add 25,000 people to Central SoMa, without any plan it is
estimated that around 16,000 people will settle in the Plan Area anyway, but with plans implemented, the Plan Area would add 25,000 to the current
number of residents by 2040. When more people congregate in an area that was at one time had a low density population, this will have some sort
effects on ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
However, even when the result shows less than–significant impact, we have to recognized the fact that VMT only account for passenger cars, not
trucks, transits, and transportation network companies(TNCs), such Uber and Lyft. Furthermore, when researching the air quality on the Central Soma
area, I came across maps showing the area glowing in considerable high level of particulate matters(PM). That's why at the end of the air quality
section, the developer stated that with the, "Plan under 2040 cumulative conditions would result in significant cumulative impacts to existing sensitive
receptors and this impact would be significant and unavoidable with mitigation" (IV.F–57). One of the contributing factors that is going to affect the air
quality in the Plan Area, but also the living quality and the residents' mobility is the transportation impacts. In this section, I will look closely at the
impacts with the plan implemented in the Plan Area–VMT, mode share, and TNC; mitigation on cars with the utilization of bike and transit
infrastructures–muni forward, Central Subway, and more and improve bike lanes. When talking about transportation, the VMT is very crucial for such
an enormous redevelopment like the Plan Area because there is going to be a big increase in the number of residents in the upcoming years. An
upward of 25,000 people is predicted to settle within

A Conjoint Analysis Of A Sawtooth Software?
6. WHAT DO CUSTOMERS WANT a. Conjoint Analysis There are different driving factors when it comes to consumers product choices. When a
marketing analyst has to determine the most liked and most hated attributes of a particular product, such as – What are the attributes making people
choose KitKat above Perk – Brand, Price, Taste or Size? After showing consumers several similar products (called product profiles) and asking the
consumers to rank them according to preference, an analyst can do a Full Profile Conjoint Analysis to determine relative importance of different
attributes. Basically, conjoint analysis enables a marketer to determine the product characteristics that dictate a consumer's product preference. Here the
consumer is asked to... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Since it is not known how long the relationship will last, it is normally considered over a 12–month period or its multiples. If a company constantly
spends more money on acquiring new customers than the customer generates for the company, the company will soon go out of business. As stated by
Pareto Principle, 80% of the revenue comes from 20% of the customers, thus it is highly beneficial for the company to recognize those cash cows and
focus on them. Hence, it is very important, from a company's perspective to know a customer's lifetime value. a. Historical CLV One of the simplest
methods of calculating the CLV is historical CLV, which calculates the customers lifetime value based on the total amount the customer has already
spent on the company. It should be noted that historical CLV at times does not take into account the time of association of the customer with the
company. Old customers and new customers are all in the same bucket. Historical CLV is based on past data and hence at times can give misleading
results. Exhibit: Transaction Details Customer Name Purchase DatePurchase

Spirometry Essay
Definition or Description: (1 point)
Spirometry is a physiological test measures a patients forced vital capacity, forced inspiratory vital capacity, slow vital capacity, and maximal voluntary
ventilation.
Indications: (5 points)
List the Indications:
DIAGNOSTIC = evaluation of the symptoms, measurers the effect of the disease, used as a screening for patients who are believed to have a
pulmonary disease
MONITORING = used to assess the change in lung function over time. Monitor for adverse reactions, uses also to monitor possible environmental
exposure.
DISABILITY = Assesses a patients inherit disability from lung disease.
PUBLIC HEALTH = Surveys or for research purposes.
Contraindications: (5 points)
List the Contraindications
Recent ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
For Obstructive disorders, less than what percentage is considered to be abnormal for FVC: – less than 80 % FEV1: – less than 80% FVC/FEV1 ratio:
– less than 75% FEF25–75: – less than 65% Equipment Calibration: (4 points) What is the device that is considered to be the gold standard for
calibration? Spirometry How often must calibration be done and when? Calibration should be performed for every new patient that comes in. Brief
description of calibration procedure (i.e. it requires more than a single trial –what specifically must you do)? Calibration should be performed using a 3
liter syringe following the manufacturer's recommended procedures fluctuation at 3 different speeds for accurate calibration. What is an acceptable
calibration value? +3/–3 of a known volume
Quality Control: (8 points) How is Quality Assurance determined for Spirometry, i.e. In what mode is it performed, when, how often, what data is
recorded, what statistics must be computed at the end of the month? includes examination of test values and evaluation of both the volume–time and
flow–volume curves for evidence of technical errors (CDC) During the test we want at least 3 valid test that are

Rationale Scheme of Work
The rationale for my scheme of work (see appendix 1) is to meet both the learners' needs and the curriculum requirements. Edexcel is the awarding
body who supply the syllabus which gives the framework for delivery and assessment of the subject matter. The Edexcel ITQ Level 2 Certificate
curriculum requirements will be met by learners completing practical work–related tasks. They will learn by completing projects and assignments that
are based on realistic workplace situations, activities and demands. The content and structure are the most obvious features of any Scheme of Work,
since it is the whole syllabus of what is going to be delivered, how it is going to be delivered and when it will be delivered, therefore I have used a
logical... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Integrate learning by linking knowledge within and between the functional areas. Spend time planning and developing their work. Make choices, think
creatively and act independently.
Expert teachers generally are comfortable with a wide range of instructional strategies, and they vary them skillfully with the nature of the learning task
and learners' needs (Berliner, 1986).
Tomlinson, Carol Ann. Differentiated Classroom : Responding to the Needs of All Learners.
Alexandria, VA, USA: Association for Supervision & Curriculum Development, 1999. p 61. http://site.ebrary.com/lib/staffordshire
/Doc?id=10115178&ppg=68 Copyright © 1999. Association for Supervision & Curriculum Development. All rights reserved.
Independent practice that allows students to extend skills or knowledge on their own
"Differentiation is the process whereby teachers meet the need for progress through the curriculum by selecting appropriate teaching methods to match
the individual student's learning strategies within a group situation."
J.Visser, Differentiation and the Curriculum, University of Birmingham, 1993
Why differentiate?
Every learner is an individual and has his or her own specific learning needs.
Each will be influenced by previous experiences including cultural influences.

Extrapolation Lab Report
section{Measurement of oxygen consumption} The methods to measure oxygen consumption – either directly or by extrapolation – can be classified
into invasive and non–invasive methods.
subsection{Invasive methods of measurement of oxygen consumption}
1. Bedside measure:
I will discuss – Lactate, $PCO_{2}$ difference, and mixed venous oxygen saturation.
A. textit{Lactate}:
Normal arterial serum lactate ranges between 0 and 2 mmol/L. The production of lactate occurs when tissues have insufficient supply of oxygen.
The glycolysis for energy production is not optimal in these low perfusion / low oxygen states. The body is forced to produce ATP (albeit
inefficiently) by anaerobic pathways. The end product of this anaerobic reaction is Lactate. Hence, an increase in lactate can be a marker of low
perfusion or low oxygen states.
B. textit{Mixed venous oxygen saturation}:
The 'true' mixed venous oxygen saturation is measured from a pulmonary artery catheter placed in the main pulmonary arterial trunk. Blood returning to
the right side of the heart contains the residual oxygen after utilisation by the tissues. This makes the $MxVenO_{2}$ an indirect measure of whole
body tissue oxygen consumption. Acute ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
In paediatric intensive care non–invasive techniques are preferred for measurement of oxygen extraction. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy is a
popular method used in large research units. Another variant is the functional MRI (fMRI) with blood oxygen level dependent effect (BOLD). This
technique has been widely used in the neuroscience department.cite{Carlier:2006hg} Scientists are also able to measure oxygen consumption in the
brain in animal models by using fluorescence microscopy.cite{Dmitriev:2012kb} The only available technique for use as a bedside non–invasive
measure in the paediatric intensive care setting is Near InfraRed Spectroscopy

The Correlation Between The Value Of Time Series Of...
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation is defined as the correlation between the value of time series at a specific time and previous values of the same series (Reference). In
other words, with time series what happens in time t contains information about what will happen at time t+1. Autocorrelation plots are a
commonly–used tool for checking randomness in a data set. This randomness is ascertained by computing autocorrelations for data values at varying
time lags. If random, such autocorrelations should be near zero for any and all time–lag separations. If non–random, then one or more of the
autocorrelations will be significantly non–zero. The autocorrelation plots can provide answers to questions such as are the data random? Is an
observation related to an adjacent observation? Is the observed time series white noise, sinusoidal or autoregressive? They help in understanding the
underlying relationship between the data points. The autocorrelation plots of 4 time series of heating operating system are as follows :
a. Supply temperature setpoint :– The plot starts with a high correlation at lag 1 which is slightly less than 1 and slowly declines. It continues to
decrease until it becomes negative and starts showing an increasing negative correlation. The decreasing autocorrelation is generally linear with little
noise. Such a pattern in the autocorrelation plot is a signature of "strong autocorrelation", which in turn provides high predictability if modeled
properly. b. System

Determining G on an Incline Essay
Determining g on an Incline
Lab #1
Theory: During the early part of the seventeenth century, Galileo experimentally examined the concept of acceleration. One of his goals was to
measure the acceleration due to gravity, or the acceleration of freely falling objects. Unfortunately, his timing devices were not precise enough to
measure the free fall time directly. He decided to "dilute" gravity by using fluids, inclined planes, and pendulums.
Galileo's idea of diluting gravity using inclined planes worked like this: the acceleration of a rolling cart on an inclined plane is small, therefore is easy
to measure; when the angle of the incline gets bigger, the acceleration will get bigger; by measuring the dependence of the acceleration on ... Show more
content on Helpwriting.net ...
Using Vernier, we clicked collect while releasing the cart after motion detector starts to click. This was done moving the hand quickly out the path.
Using logger pro, indicated which portion was to be used by dragging across the graph to indicate the starting and ending times. Then the linear
button was clicked to perform the linear regression of the selected data. The Linear Button was used to determine the slope of the velocity vs. time
graph, only using the portion of the data for times when the cart was freely rolling. We found the acceleration of the cart from the fitted line. Record
the value in the data table. These steps where repeated 5 mores times. Measured the length of the incline, x which is the distance between the two
points of the ramp. Measure the height, h, the height of the book(s). The last two measurements was used determine the angle of the incline. Raise the
incline by placing a second book under the end. Adjust the book so that distance, x, is the same as the previous reading. Repeated these steps with 3, 4
and 5 books.
ANALYSIS DATA
The greater the incline and greater the height, the greater the acceleration of the cart. –This experiment measured the acceleration of a cart moving
down a sloped track in order to find a relation between the acceleration of an object and the sine of the angle at which it is moving. There were three
separate experimental stages, with the variable being the angle at which the

A Note On Macro, Micro Evolution There Is Important For...
First off, when talk about macro, micro evolution there is much falsehood about these two words, but, understanding them is maybe the vital essential
for comprehension the creation or development issue. Macroevolution alludes to major developmental changes after some time, the inception of new
sorts of creatures from beforehand existing, yet distinctive, tribal sorts. On the other hand, Microevolution alludes to assortments inside of a given sort.
Change happens inside of a gathering, however the relative is unmistakably of the same sort as the precursor.
According to Berkeley.edu, "Macroevolution generally refers to evolution above the species level. So instead of focusing on an individual beetle
species, a macroevolutionary lens might require that we zoom out on the tree of life, to assess the diversity of the entire beetle clade and its position on
the tree." Macroevolution includes the most amazing patterns and changes in development, for example, the beginning of warm–blooded animals and
the radiation of blooming plants. Macro evolutionary examples are by and large what we see when we take a gander at the substantial scale history
of life. It is not as a matter of course simple to "see" macro evolutionary history; there are no firsthand records to be perused. Rather, we reproduce the
historical backdrop of life utilizing all accessible confirmation: geography, fossils, and living beings.
Once we 've made sense of what transformative occasions have occurred, we

Two Guiding Elements: Extrapolation Of Two Guiding Elements
Extrapolation of Two Guiding Elements Several years ago, "the more serious I became as a Christian and as a student of economics, however, the
more I came to believe that capitalism was practically if not morally superior. But after several years of graduate school and still more struggle, I
eventually discovered that capitalism could be soundly defended on both practical and moral grounds."7 I personally believe God created us to be His
co–creators. Still, every Christian worker should use God's Word as a guiding light with those two guiding elements. "The challenge is deciding
which right thing to do."1 While a Christian worker or a leader is making the decision to build life on the Word of God and viewing the Word of God
as the foundation

Methadone Case Study
Methadone is a commonly used opioid to relieve pain in both veterinary and human medicine. To help develop appropriate pain management practices
and to develop a quantitative model for predicting methadone dosimetry in plasma and specific tissues, a flow–limited multi–route physiologically
based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for methadone in dogs constructed with Berkeley MadonnaTM was developed, specifically examining the
Beagle and Greyhound breeds. The model accounts for intravenous (IV), subcutaneous (SC), and oral administrations, and compartmentalizes the body
into components of venous blood, arterial blood, muscle, lung, brain, heart, liver, GI tract, kidney, and rest of body. This model was calibrated from
plasma pharmacokinetic data

Drifters Bruce Dawe Analysis
Good Morning and Welcome Year 11 students to the Poetry Seminar. My name is Will and I am here to present to you an Australian poem which
represents belonging. The poem that I have chosen to analyse is Drifters by Bruce Dawe. Today I will be discussing how the poem relates to
belonging, two important figurative devices within the poem and an extrapolation of the taught poem migrant hostel which also explores the idea of
belonging. Firstly, how the poem relates to belonging. The poem 'Drifters' represents belonging by the family not being able to settle as they keep on
moving houses and communities. Belonging to a place is linked to belonging in a family. Everyone in this family is affected by the father's decision
to relocate. To belong in this family, movement is required, despite individual desires. Family members often have to compromise or sacrifice what
they want in order to belong in their family. Some members request to establish a permanent sense of home while others don't. This is shown in the
opposite opinions of moving within the family based on how they fitted in the town they were living in for example the... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
The berries appear twice in the poem. At the start "she held out her hands bright with berries, the first of the season". Here they appear as bright
and in season or ready to eat. They also appear at the end of the poem as "shrivelled fruit". This means that the berries would be old and simply not
enjoyable to eat. This shows that the family is not in a place long enough to be able to grow a healthy crop. These berries represent the family as they
also appear to be happy at the start of the poem as they were settled in their home, loving life however after the father announces that they would be
moving, turned into 'shrivelled fruit' as they are thought to be sad and unhappy due to their constant movements. This relates to shrivelled fruit as it is
not

Internet Field Trip
Assignment #2: Internet Field Trip
Forecasting Methods
Genius forecasting – This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case
of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with
uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many
examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass.
Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Each is an expert in his own discipline, and it is through the synthesis of these opinions that a final forecast is obtained. One method of arriving at a
consensus forecast would be to put all the experts in a room and let them "argue it out". This method falls short because the situation is often controlled
by those individuals that have the best group interaction and persuasion skills. A better method is known as the Delphi technique. This method seeks to
rectify the problems of face–to–face confrontation in the group, so the responses and respondents remain anonymous. The classical technique proceeds
in well–defined sequence. In the first round, the participants are asked to write their predictions. Their responses are collated and a copy is given to
each of the participants. The participants are asked to comment on extreme views and to defend or modify their original opinion based on what the
other participants have written. Again, the answers are collated and fed back to the participants. In the final round, participants are asked to reassess
their original opinion in view of those presented by other participants. The Delphi method general produces a rapid narrowing of opinions. It

Oak Park Township's Potential Trend Equation
1 Introduction This report presents projections of Oak Park Township's population for the year 2030. These projections were done by three methods
such as the following: allocation, trend extrapolation, and cohort–component. These projected processes and results can be elaborated by methods in
the following sections. 2 Population Projection Methods 2.1 Allocation Allocation, this method uses larger region's population or projections and
percentage of population of a smaller area in the larger region to estimate smaller area's population. Oak Park Township is located in Cook County, so
the first step is to obtain the most recent population of Cook County and Oak Park Township and the projected population of Cook County in 2030.
According to... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Then, using the population of each five–year cohort in 2000, we projected the population excluding migration in 2010. Comparing the census and
projected population in 2010, the10–year migration rates were estimated. So, with the migration rates, the migration of 2030 could be projected. Due
to the projected births, deaths and migration in 2030, the projected population of Oak park Township in 2030 was shown in following Table 4.
Comparatively speaking, the allocation and trend extrapolation methods require less data and simply assume current distributions and the trend will
continue. However, the cohort component method relies on more data and assumptions than the others. It can be rationally projected. That is to say,
if obtaining the data and assumptions is not difficult, the cohort component could provide a reliable projection. 3 Conclusion The results of the
projected population of Oak Park Township in 2030 by different methods were distinctly shown in Table 6. These projections have quite a bit of
difference. According to the above comparison of three methods, the cohort component should be the reliable one. In conclusion, the population of
Oak Park Township is likely to see a reduction, compared with 2010. The population is projected from 51,878 to 45,187, a decrease of 6,691 or–12.9

Projections, Forecasts, And Estimates Essay
2.4 Projections, Forecasts, or Estimates The definition of projections, forecasts, and estimates are all different and should not be used without knowing
the exact meanings which are: Projection: the familiar word for statements that are taken from mathematics and are based on inferences decided in
advance. Forcast: the statement that has the highest probability to happen in the future. Estimate: is about specific statistics from the past or present
statistics. o Estimates fill in the years between two different census. 3.1.1 Typolography of projection Methods Subective projections are assumptions,
and they stay away from elaborate orderly and procedural methods. They can only show impressions of predispositions of the later to come population.
Objective projections take the quantitative way of gathering data and use a quatitative strategy to attain a projected outcome. Objection projections
dependo n the selection of the right projection technique. The major projection methods are: structual method, cohort–component, and the trend
extrapolation method. 3.4 Trend Extrapolation Methods Extending the application of past trends into the time beyond the observation range is the
essence of all the extrapolation methods. The extrapolation method is best used for modest sized population projections that have low data needs ,
inexpensive, and able to be used effortlessly. Sometimes data, such as population trends is easier to see and understand in graphical form. A simple

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