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NewBase Energy News 08 January 2020 - Issue No. 1308 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oman targets 3,050 MW of renewables by 20250, 16% of total
Oman Observer + NewBase
A renewable energy development plan unveiled recently by the Oman Power and Water
Procurement Company (OPWP) — the sole buyer of electricity in the Sultanate — envisions the
procurement of 3,050 megawatts (MW) of renewables-based capacity by 2025, representing 16 per
cent of total electricity output by this timeframe.
This compares with a minimum 10 per cent share for renewables set by the Omani government by
the 2025 milestone. Indeed, by 2030, renewable energy projects may account for roughly 30 per
cent of generation capacity in the Sultanate, according to Brian Wood, Senior Adviser at OPWP, a
Member of Nama Group.
“OPWP sees a bright future for renewables,” said Wood at a sustainable energy conference held in
the city recently. “By 2025, renewable energy projects from OPWP alone would provide for 16 per
cent of electricity output.
Another 2-5 per cent may come via other development channels,” he stated. Drawing a timeline for
the delivery of 3,050 MW of renewables capacity, the official explained that the first 500 MW will
come into operation in 2021 when the Ibri II Solar Independent Power Project (IPP) is completed.
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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By 2023, a further 1,000 MW (potentially rising to 1,200 MW) will be added to the portfolio when
Manah Solar 1 and Manah Solar II are brought into operation. Also on the anvil is another solar PV
project (Solar IPP 2024) of a projected capacity of 500 MW, details of which are yet to be finalised.
By 2024, the first of two new wind-based power projects is due to be brought online. Wind IPP 2023,
with a capacity of around 100 MW, is expected to be established in Jaalan Bani Bu Ali within the
Main Interconnected System (MIS).
A much larger scheme, sized at 200 MW and planned in Duqm (Wind IPP 2024), will be operational
by 2024 as well. Oman’s maiden wind farm (Dhofar 1 Wind IPP) — a 50 MW complex built at
Harweel in Dhofar Governorate — came into operation last November.
Included in the pipeline of renewables based projects is the Barka WTE IPP — a Waste to Energy
project with a maximum capacity of 160 MW and due to come on stream by 2025. In Duqm, OPWP
envisions the potential for a 600MW Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) project with thermal storage.
The capacity level and timing of the project are under review, said Wood. Further wind development
in Dhofar Governorate may occur by 2025 depending on grid security assessment, he added.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3
UAE: Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2020, January 11 to 18.
NewBase + Trade News
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2020, set to take place next week, will begin a new decade of
ambitious global efforts to achieve the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for
2030.
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week is a key event in the world of sustainability, as it gathers specialists
and experts from around 175 countries and includes several key programmes, constituting a global
platform for promoting international dialogue on sustainability, said a Wam news agency report.
This year, the week’s scope of topics was expanded in line with the UN’s Sustainable Development
Goals to include energy, climate change, water, food, the future of transport, space exploration, and
vital health technologies and technologies for a better future. It will also discuss Artificial Intelligence,
AI, the community and the youth.
In an exclusive statement to Wam, Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, CEO of Abu Dhabi Future Energy
Company (Masdar), said that Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week will cover many strategic international
sustainable development issues, with
an emphasis on key areas such as
renewable energy, the youth, water,
the environment and waste, noting
that these topics shall be discussed
over eight days in Abu Dhabi.
Sustainable development represents
the core of the UAE Vision 2021 and
its national agenda. It also launched
several initiatives in line with the UN’s
goals, including the establishment of
the National Committee on
Sustainable Development Goals,
along with its efforts to offer aid
around the world.
The UAE recently launched the Air Quality Index; it hosts the headquarters of the International
Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), and has implemented many related local and international
projects.
In 2012, the UAE Green Growth Strategy was launched to build a green economy, under the slogan,
‘A Green Economy for Sustainable Development'. The strategy includes a range of programmes in
the areas of energy, agriculture, investment and sustainable transport and environmental policies.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Iraq: China's CNPC pulls staff from Iraq oilfield amid tensions
Reuters + NewBase
China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), a top investor in Iraqi oil, has pulled about 20 employees
from the West Qurna-1 field operated by U.S. major Exxon Mobil amid a jump in regional tensions,
a company source familiar with the matter said.
The move was made on Sunday following the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a U.S.
drone strike in Iraq last week. Iran early on Wednesday launched missile attacks on U.S.-led forces
in Iraq in retaliation, fuelling fears of a wider conflict.
“CNPC pulled out its staff from
West Qurna on Jan. 5,
following Exxon’s direction as
they are the operator, right
after the U.S. killing of
Soleimani,” the Beijing-based
source said on Wednesday.
The Chinese state oil firm has
kept staff in place at two other
Iraqi oil fields, he added.
CNPC declined to comment on
the matter. Exxon Mobil did not
immediately respond to an
email request for comment.
Iraq is the second-largest oil
producer in the Middle East
after Saudi Arabia, pumping at
about 4.6 million barrels a day.
The deteriorating security
situation poses a heightened
risk to foreign firms operating in
its oil and gas sector.
CNPC had maintained its staff of close to 60 at the Rumaila oilfield, a joint venture with operator
BP, as well as a team of about 100 at the CNPC-operated Halfaya field, said the source, who
declined to be named as he was not authorised to talk to media.
“Teams at Rumaila and Halfaya update headquarters on the securities situation on a daily basis.
For now there’s no plan for evacuations,” the source added.
China’s state-run CNOOC Ltd, which produces at the Maysan oilfield in southeast Iraq, has no
immediate evacuation plan as the firm has already put in place a “very high” level of security
measures due to long-term security concerns, said a CNOOC official.
State-run Korea Gas Corp, which participates in oil and gas development projects in Iraq such as
the Zubair oilfield and Mansuiya gas field, is monitoring the situation and has maintained its staff of
fewer than 10, a company spokesman said. (Reporting by Chen Aizhu in SINGAPORE, Muyu Xu
and Shivani Singh in BEIJING; Jane Chung in Seoul; Additional reporting by Shu Zhang in
Singapore; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Richard Pullin)
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Oman: $25 billion strategic projects to fuel economic growth
Oman Observer + NewBase
Nine mega ventures currently in various stages of implementation with investments totaling in
excess of $25 billion have been affirmed by the Omani government as imperative to sustaining the
Sultanate’s long-term socioeconomic development.
The portfolio of projects and developments, listed in the 2020 State Budget unveiled last week,
include a number of big-ticket petrochemical ventures, a lavish mixed-used waterfront development,
a large-scale logistics city, a new high-end neighborhood for Muscat, investments in food security
projects, and an upcoming copper mining scheme.
Not included in the list are a similar number of equally substantive schemes currently under
development at the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Duqm.
A brief snapshot of the nine “strategic projects” appears here below:
Salalah Ammonia Project:
Construction work began in 2017 on a 1,000 metric tonnes per day (MTPD) capacity ammonia plant
in Salalah Free Zone estimated to cost $750 million. The new plant will be integrated with 1 million
tonnes per year (tpy) capacity methanol plant of Salalah Methanol Company (SMC) at the free zone.
Besides being used as an ingredient in the production of fertilizers, ammonia is also an important
intermediate chemical in the manufacture of synthetic resins (urea based), synthetic fibres (acrylics
and nylons, and polyurethanes, among other applications.
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Ras Markaz Crude Oil Storage Terminal
Oman Tank Terminal Company LLC (OTTCO), a subsidiary of OQ (formerly Oman Oil and Orpic
Group), is setting up a major crude oil Storage Terminal at Ras Markaz near Duqm. Total investment
in Phase 1 of the storage facility, which at full build will rank among the largest of its kind in the
world, is pegged at $1.76 billion.
At the heart of the Ras Markaz Crude Oil Terminal project is a vision to position the Sultanate as an
international hub for storage of crudes and petroleum derivatives, leveraging Oman’s strategic
geographical location on the Indian Ocean. The project also creates an additional port for crude
exports.
Salalah LPG Project
Salalah LPG SFZ Co LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Oman Gas Company (OGC), is investing
around $830 million in a 300,000 tonnes per annum of LPG plant in Salalah Free Zone. It includes
a high-tech extraction plant with a nameplate capacity to process 9 million standard cubic metres of
gas per day.
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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Mina Sultan Qaboos Waterfront
UAE based real estate developer Damac has been selected by the Government of Oman to develop
Mina Al Sultan Qaboos into a world-class, waterfront mixed-use destination through a joint venture
with Omran, the government’s investment, growth and development arm.
‘Mina Al Sultan Qaboos Waterfront’ is being redeveloped into a $ 2 billion integrated tourist port and
lifestyle destination that includes hotels, residences, as well as a dining, retail and leisure offering.
Liwa Plastics Industries Complex
The Liwa Plastics Industries Complex (LPIC), a signature investment of OQ (formerly Oman Oil &
Orpic Group), is a transformational project that will improve the Group’s product mix and business
model, increase its profit and support the development of a downstream plastics industry in Oman.
Located at Sohar Port, the $6.4 billion project will be formally launched this year.
Khazaen Economic City
Oman’s first integrated logistics city is coming up on a 52 sq km site near Barka, just off the Batinah
Expressway. It will serve as Oman’s northern logistics hub, connecting a number of key
development projects across the Sultanate via its extensive dry port facilities. Khazaen will also host
dedicated areas for commercial, industrial, and residential use, whilst also providing the residents
of the wider region with new health, education and leisure facilities.
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Madinat Al Irfan Project
Conceived as a new downtown for the capital region, Madinat Al Irfan will come up in multiple
phases on prime real estate in Muscat. A joint venture between Omran and Dubai’s Majid Al Futtaim
(MAF) will pave the way for investments estimated at $13 billion in commercial, residential,
education, healthcare, entertainment, and hospitality developments.
Oman Food Investment Holding projects
Oman Food Investment Holding Company (OFIC), the wholly government-owned food sector
investment flagship, is spearheading the development of projects in dairy, poultry, livestock farming,
red meat production, agro production and processing, dates and date processing, and other
foodstuff processing schemes. Investments are estimated to total $1 billion and will go a long way
in securing Oman’s food requirements. Mazoon Dairy, the flagship venture of OFIC, was launched
late last year.
Copper Mining in Al Mudhaibi
Large-scale copper mining is set to take off in the Sultanate with the joint venture Al Hadeetha
Resources set to develop a major copper deposit at Washihi-Mazzaza in Al Mudhaibi Wilayat. It
targets the commercialisation of an estimated 16 million tonnes of copper ore — billed as the largest
single copper resource in the Sultanate to date. The project includes plans for a 1 million tonnes per
annum copper concentration plant with an initial 10-year mine life.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Kuwait: Kuwait Petroleum & Qatar Petroleum sign LNG agreement
Gulf News + NewBase
Kuwait Petroleum and Qatar Petroleum have entered into a long term Sale and Purchase
Agreement for the supply of up to 3 million tons per annum of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to the
State of Kuwait.
The agreement was signed by His Excellency Dr. Khaled A. Al-Fadhel, the Minister of Oil and the
Minister of Electricity & Water, the Chairman of the Board of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and His
Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and
CEO of Qatar Petroleum, during a special ceremony held in Kuwait City.
Under the 15-year agreement, LNG deliveries to Kuwait’s new
world-class LNG receiving terminal at Al-Zour Port will commence
in 2022 to support meeting Kuwait’s growing energy needs and
demand, particularly in the power generation sector.
His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State
for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of Qatar Petroleum
welcomed the signing of the agreement and said, 'We are pleased
and proud to join hands with Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, and
we look forward to providing reliable LNG supplies to our brothers
in the State of Kuwait for decades to come.'
'This agreement extends Qatar’s long standing LNG supply relationship with Kuwait well into the
2030’s and highlights our commitment to meeting Kuwait’s LNG requirements. We are confident
that the exceptional reliability of our LNG supplies will provide KPC with the required flexibility and
supply security to fuel the State of Kuwait’s impressive growth,' His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi
concluded.
On his part, His Excellency Dr. Khaled A. Al-Fadhel, the Minister of Oil and the Minister of Electricity
& Water, the Chairman of the Board of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said, 'The state of Kuwait is
embarking on an ambitious path of economic growth, which requires cleaner energy sources such
as natural gas that will contribute to reducing emissions and improving local air quality. Whilst KPC
is working towards increasing local natural gas production, there remains a pressing need to secure
imports of natural gas supplies.'
This agreement reinforces the solid brotherly relationship between Kuwait and Qatar and further
strengthens the ties between Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Qatar Petroleum.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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NewBase January 08-2020 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil charts steadier course as tensions on Iran strike ebb - for now
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices were about 1% higher on Wednesday, but well below highs hit in a frenetic start to the
trading day after a rocket attack by Iran on American forces in Iraq raised the specter of a spiraling
conflict and disruption to crude flows.
Prices gave up most of their gains after early surges as analysts said market tension could ease as
long as oil production facilities remain unaffected by attacks. Tweets by U.S. President Donald
Trump and Iran’s foreign minister also appeared to signal a period of calm - for now.
Brent crude futures were up 74 cents, or 1.08%, to $69.01 by around 0843 GMT, after earlier rising
as high as $71.75, the most since mid-September 2019.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 54 cents, or 0.86%, to $63.24 a barrel. It earlier hit
$65.85, the highest since late April last year.
Oil price special
coverage
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Analysts said oil markets remained focused for now on the targets in the Wednesday attack being
military, rather than oil industry facilities.
“I think (Brent) prices will yo-yo around $70-75 unless the U.S. escalates by attacks on Iranian
territory. But I doubt that Iran will escalate to all-out war, which they cannot win,” said Tilak Doshi,
visiting senior fellow, Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.
Early indications suggested no U.S. casualties, one source told Reuters, although other officials
declined to comment. Iranian state television said 80 “American terrorists” had been killed and U.S.
helicopters and military equipment damaged.
Iraq, Germany, Denmark and Norway said none of their troops were killed or injured.
“The reality remains that there has been no reports of oil supply disruptions and these attacks were
aimed at military installations in Iraq,” said Victor Shum, vice president of energy consulting at IHS
Markit in Singapore, adding the world is well supplied with oil at the moment.
OPEC RESPONSE
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will respond to any possible oil shortages if
necessary but it also has “limitations”, the United Arab Emirates energy minister said on
Wednesday.
Suhail al-Mazrouei also said he sees no immediate risk of supplies through the important Strait of
Hormuz being blocked.
(GRAPHIC: Oil, gold prices retreat after initial surge following Iran's attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq -
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Oil Shippers Raise Offers for Middle East Route on Gulf Risk
Owners of oil tankers are boosting their rates to haul crude on a key route from the Middle East as
risks in the Gulf escalate after Iran retaliated against the U.S. killing of a top general.
Shipowners are offering rates for supertankers carrying crude from the Persian Gulf to China at
increasingly higher levels, in some cases at least 14% above previous bookings, according to
brokers and oil traders in Asia. While there have been no fixtures reported at that level, owners are
seeking a premium to enter and load from the region, they said.
The spike in costs for the key shipping route shows how the escalating conflict between the U.S.
and Iran is spilling over into global oil supply chains. It’s the latest shock to hit the freight market,
which has been shaken over the past year by sanctions on a top Chinese shipowner for transporting
Iranian oil and the sabotage of tankers near the Strait of Hormuz -- an act blamed on Iran. More
recently, freight rates climbed due to new maritime rules that mandated the use of cleaner-burning
ship-fuels.
“In a situation like this, it’s not surprising that shipowners are charging higher freight rates, because
they have to protect their balance sheets in anticipation of insurance premiums rising,” said Tilak
Doshi, a visiting fellow at the NUS Middle East Institute in Singapore who previously worked at
Saudi Aramco and Louis Dreyfus Energy.
Shipping costs are typically negotiated in terms of Worldscale, an industry standard that reflects a
percentage of an underlying flat rate. Shipowners have offered rates for the Middle East to China
route of between 165 and 180 Worldscale points, according to the brokers and oil traders in Asia,
who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak to the media.
Earlier this week, ships for the same route were provisionally chartered at between 140 and 150
Worldscale points, up from about 122 before the U.S. airstrikes on Friday.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Oil Markets in Turmoil After Iran Attacks Reignite Supply Fears
Bloomberg + NewBase
Oil prices jumped back above $70 a barrel after Iran attacked two U.S.-Iraqi bases in its first
response to the killing of its top general, before paring much of their advance as Tehran signaled
the strike was over.
Futures in London initially surged more than 5% as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed
responsibility for the missile strikes, which the Pentagon said were launched from Iran. Prices then
pulled back after the country’s foreign minister said it had “concluded proportionate measures in
self-defense” and U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that “all is well” following the attacks.
While oil flows from the Middle East continue to be unimpeded for now, the risk the conflict will
disrupt global supplies is spooking the market. Most crude exports from the Persian Gulf, including
shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq, go through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway
that Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down if there’s a war.
The impact of the strike also spilled over into other assets, with gold surging to the highest level
in six years, while U.S. and European stock futures declined.
Oil has had a dramatic start to the year, triggered by the U.S. airstrike that killed General Qassem
Soleimani last week. Iran said Tuesday it was assessing 13 possible ways to inflict a “historic
nightmare” on America after the assassination of the military commander near Baghdad’s
international airport.
“We’re at a point where supplies from the Middle East could be disrupted at any moment as tensions
escalate further after Iran’s retaliation,” said Kwangrae Kim, a commodities analyst at Samsung
Futures Inc. “Oil markets could see another jump, depending on how the U.S. responds. We should
be bracing for a volatile ride.”
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Brent crude rose as much as $3.48 to $71.75 a barrel before trading 0.9% higher at $68.85 on the
ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 7:26 a.m. in London. West Texas Intermediate climbed as
much as $2.95, or 4.7%, to $65.65 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, later retreating to $63.12.
OPEC is confident that Middle East leaders are doing everything possible to restore calm in the
region, Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said after the attacks. Iraqi oil facilities remain
secure, he said.
Investors are paying up to protect against higher prices after the strikes. Call options on WTI --
which allow the holder to buy futures at a set price -- are at the biggest premium to puts since
September, when it spiked in the wake of attacks on Saudi Arabian oil sites. Implied volatility -- a
key measure of how expensive the options are -- reached the highest since early December.
“If Iran seeks further targets for retaliation to the killing of Soleimani, but without crossing declared
U.S. red lines that would prompt a military response, energy infrastructure may be appealing,” said
Jason Bordoff, a former Obama administration official who now works at Columbia University. An
actual supply disruption would send prices soaring, depending on the magnitude and expected
duration of the outage, he said.
While there’s nervousness around the safety of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, there’s still
a comfortable oil supply cushion. OPEC is sitting on huge amounts of spare capacity after reducing
supplies for most of the past three years and the U.S., the world’s largest crude producer, recently
reported its second consecutive month as a net petroleum exporter. Big oil consumers including the
U.S. and China also hold millions of barrels in strategic reserves that can be deployed to offset any
shortage.
The risk premium is “likely to come back into place,” Daniel Hynes, a senior strategist at Australia
& New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “The risks to ongoing
disruptions in the industry are very high.”
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NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world – Special Jan-08-2020
Energy commodity prices rose more than other goods in 2019
And Oil prices were lower than 2018. U.S. EIA, based on S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI)
The energy portion of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) ended 2019 22% higher
than it began the year. Price indexes for other commodity types also increased in 2019, but not as
much as the energy commodity index.
Composed of 24 individual commodity contracts organized into five sub-indexes, the values of the
GSCI and its sub-indexes are calculated as weighted averages. The weight assigned to each
commodity reflects its significance to the world economy in a given year as measured by its
production volume and liquidity.
Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil ended the year 31% and
20% higher, respectively, than on January 2, 2019. WTI’s increase of 31% was the largest increase
of all GSCI commodities in 2019.
Other energy commodities such as RBOB (reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending—
essentially the petroleum component of motor gasoline), heating oil, and gasoil rose by 28%, 19%,
and 19%, respectively, in 2019.
Natural gas was the only GSCI energy commodity to decrease in 2019: prompt-month natural gas
futures sold on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 26% from $2.96 per million British thermal
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units (MMBtu) on January 2 to $2.19/MMBtu on December 31—the largest percentage decline of
all commodities in the GSCI in 2019.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI)
Price changes for each commodity are weighted by their relative importance in the broader market.
WTI and Brent crude oil prices accounted for 72% of the weighting in the S&P GSCI energy index
and 45% of the total GSCI in 2019.
Since the creation of the GSCI in 1991, WTI and Brent have been the GSCI’s highest and second-
highest weighted commodities, respectively, so both the GSCI and the energy sub-index tend to
follow major price movements of these crude oils.
Prices of many nonenergy commodities tend to move in the same direction as energy commodities.
For instance, because consumers use more copper and more crude oil when the economy is
expanding, copper prices and the Brent crude oil price typically move together.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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Conversely, precious metals such as gold and silver are typically seen as safe assets with values
that increase with economic contractions. Gold and silver prices are positively correlated with each
other but negatively correlated with commodities associated with economic expansion.
Note: Correlation values are based on the correlation coefficient of the weekly dollar price changes
of two commodities’ prices between January 2 and December 31, 2019.
Crude oil prices were generally lower in 2019 than in 2018
The price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, averaged $64 per barrel (b) in 2019, $7/b
lower than its 2018 average. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the U.S.
benchmark, averaged $57/b in 2019, $7/b lower than in 2018.
Compared with recent years, both crude oil prices traded within relatively narrow price ranges
throughout the year. Brent prices reached an annual daily low of $55/b in early January, rising to a
daily high of $75/b in late April. The resulting range of $20/b is the narrowest since 2003. WTI prices
ranged from $47/b to $66/b.
More recently, crude oil prices have increased following the January 3 U.S. military operation in
Iraq, likely reflecting an increase in geopolitical risk.
Although the 2019 range of daily prices remained relatively narrow, Brent and WTI front-month
futures prices did experience their largest single-day price increases since 2008. On Monday,
September 16, 2019, the first full day of trading after an attack on key energy installations in Saudi
Arabia, Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by $9/b and $8/b, respectively. The price increases
were relatively short lived, and prices returned to pre-attack levels by the end of the month because
of Saudi Arabia’s ability to bring production back online within weeks of the attack and global
concerns about demand growth.
Throughout 2019, increases in U.S. petroleum production put downward pressure on crude oil
prices. In addition, the production increases likely limited the effect on prices from the attack on
Saudi Arabia, production cut announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
Countries (OPEC), and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela that limited crude oil exports from
those countries.
Outside the United States, crude oil production from major producers such as Saudi
Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran declined in 2019. EIA expects that total OPEC crude oil production
averaged 29.8 million b/d in 2019, a decline from the 2018 average of 32.0 million b/d. U.S. crude
oil imports from OPEC countries were at their lowest level in several decades. To continue limiting
excess crude oil supply, on December 7, 2019, OPEC+ (OPEC plus 10 other nations such as
Russia, Mexico, and Kazakhstan) announced they were deepening the production cuts originally
announced in December 2018.
Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly data through
October and short-term forecasts for November and December, 2019 will likely be a record year for
several U.S. crude oil and petroleum metrics. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil and other liquids
production will reach an annual average of 19.6 million barrels per day (b/d), the highest level on
record. EIA also expects U.S. crude oil production will average 12.3 million b/d in 2019, making the
United States the largest crude oil producer in the world.
In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA expects U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net
imports will average 490,000 b/d in 2019, down from 2.3 million b/d in 2018. In September and
October, the United States exported more petroleum (crude oil and products) than it imported for
the first time on record, based on monthly values since 1973. EIA’s monthly data through December
2019 will be available by the end of February 2020.
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
The Editor :”Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk
Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 28 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations
base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in
Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas
compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences
in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating
stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent
drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many
MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences
held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite
Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 2020 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21
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New base energy news 08 january 2020 issue no. 1308 - senior editor eng. khaled al awadi -_compressed2

  • 1. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 08 January 2020 - Issue No. 1308 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Oman targets 3,050 MW of renewables by 20250, 16% of total Oman Observer + NewBase A renewable energy development plan unveiled recently by the Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP) — the sole buyer of electricity in the Sultanate — envisions the procurement of 3,050 megawatts (MW) of renewables-based capacity by 2025, representing 16 per cent of total electricity output by this timeframe. This compares with a minimum 10 per cent share for renewables set by the Omani government by the 2025 milestone. Indeed, by 2030, renewable energy projects may account for roughly 30 per cent of generation capacity in the Sultanate, according to Brian Wood, Senior Adviser at OPWP, a Member of Nama Group. “OPWP sees a bright future for renewables,” said Wood at a sustainable energy conference held in the city recently. “By 2025, renewable energy projects from OPWP alone would provide for 16 per cent of electricity output. Another 2-5 per cent may come via other development channels,” he stated. Drawing a timeline for the delivery of 3,050 MW of renewables capacity, the official explained that the first 500 MW will come into operation in 2021 when the Ibri II Solar Independent Power Project (IPP) is completed. www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
  • 2. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 By 2023, a further 1,000 MW (potentially rising to 1,200 MW) will be added to the portfolio when Manah Solar 1 and Manah Solar II are brought into operation. Also on the anvil is another solar PV project (Solar IPP 2024) of a projected capacity of 500 MW, details of which are yet to be finalised. By 2024, the first of two new wind-based power projects is due to be brought online. Wind IPP 2023, with a capacity of around 100 MW, is expected to be established in Jaalan Bani Bu Ali within the Main Interconnected System (MIS). A much larger scheme, sized at 200 MW and planned in Duqm (Wind IPP 2024), will be operational by 2024 as well. Oman’s maiden wind farm (Dhofar 1 Wind IPP) — a 50 MW complex built at Harweel in Dhofar Governorate — came into operation last November. Included in the pipeline of renewables based projects is the Barka WTE IPP — a Waste to Energy project with a maximum capacity of 160 MW and due to come on stream by 2025. In Duqm, OPWP envisions the potential for a 600MW Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) project with thermal storage. The capacity level and timing of the project are under review, said Wood. Further wind development in Dhofar Governorate may occur by 2025 depending on grid security assessment, he added.
  • 3. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 UAE: Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2020, January 11 to 18. NewBase + Trade News Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2020, set to take place next week, will begin a new decade of ambitious global efforts to achieve the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030. Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week is a key event in the world of sustainability, as it gathers specialists and experts from around 175 countries and includes several key programmes, constituting a global platform for promoting international dialogue on sustainability, said a Wam news agency report. This year, the week’s scope of topics was expanded in line with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals to include energy, climate change, water, food, the future of transport, space exploration, and vital health technologies and technologies for a better future. It will also discuss Artificial Intelligence, AI, the community and the youth. In an exclusive statement to Wam, Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, CEO of Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), said that Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week will cover many strategic international sustainable development issues, with an emphasis on key areas such as renewable energy, the youth, water, the environment and waste, noting that these topics shall be discussed over eight days in Abu Dhabi. Sustainable development represents the core of the UAE Vision 2021 and its national agenda. It also launched several initiatives in line with the UN’s goals, including the establishment of the National Committee on Sustainable Development Goals, along with its efforts to offer aid around the world. The UAE recently launched the Air Quality Index; it hosts the headquarters of the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), and has implemented many related local and international projects. In 2012, the UAE Green Growth Strategy was launched to build a green economy, under the slogan, ‘A Green Economy for Sustainable Development'. The strategy includes a range of programmes in the areas of energy, agriculture, investment and sustainable transport and environmental policies.
  • 4. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Iraq: China's CNPC pulls staff from Iraq oilfield amid tensions Reuters + NewBase China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), a top investor in Iraqi oil, has pulled about 20 employees from the West Qurna-1 field operated by U.S. major Exxon Mobil amid a jump in regional tensions, a company source familiar with the matter said. The move was made on Sunday following the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. drone strike in Iraq last week. Iran early on Wednesday launched missile attacks on U.S.-led forces in Iraq in retaliation, fuelling fears of a wider conflict. “CNPC pulled out its staff from West Qurna on Jan. 5, following Exxon’s direction as they are the operator, right after the U.S. killing of Soleimani,” the Beijing-based source said on Wednesday. The Chinese state oil firm has kept staff in place at two other Iraqi oil fields, he added. CNPC declined to comment on the matter. Exxon Mobil did not immediately respond to an email request for comment. Iraq is the second-largest oil producer in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia, pumping at about 4.6 million barrels a day. The deteriorating security situation poses a heightened risk to foreign firms operating in its oil and gas sector. CNPC had maintained its staff of close to 60 at the Rumaila oilfield, a joint venture with operator BP, as well as a team of about 100 at the CNPC-operated Halfaya field, said the source, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to talk to media. “Teams at Rumaila and Halfaya update headquarters on the securities situation on a daily basis. For now there’s no plan for evacuations,” the source added. China’s state-run CNOOC Ltd, which produces at the Maysan oilfield in southeast Iraq, has no immediate evacuation plan as the firm has already put in place a “very high” level of security measures due to long-term security concerns, said a CNOOC official. State-run Korea Gas Corp, which participates in oil and gas development projects in Iraq such as the Zubair oilfield and Mansuiya gas field, is monitoring the situation and has maintained its staff of fewer than 10, a company spokesman said. (Reporting by Chen Aizhu in SINGAPORE, Muyu Xu and Shivani Singh in BEIJING; Jane Chung in Seoul; Additional reporting by Shu Zhang in Singapore; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Richard Pullin)
  • 5. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Oman: $25 billion strategic projects to fuel economic growth Oman Observer + NewBase Nine mega ventures currently in various stages of implementation with investments totaling in excess of $25 billion have been affirmed by the Omani government as imperative to sustaining the Sultanate’s long-term socioeconomic development. The portfolio of projects and developments, listed in the 2020 State Budget unveiled last week, include a number of big-ticket petrochemical ventures, a lavish mixed-used waterfront development, a large-scale logistics city, a new high-end neighborhood for Muscat, investments in food security projects, and an upcoming copper mining scheme. Not included in the list are a similar number of equally substantive schemes currently under development at the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Duqm. A brief snapshot of the nine “strategic projects” appears here below: Salalah Ammonia Project: Construction work began in 2017 on a 1,000 metric tonnes per day (MTPD) capacity ammonia plant in Salalah Free Zone estimated to cost $750 million. The new plant will be integrated with 1 million tonnes per year (tpy) capacity methanol plant of Salalah Methanol Company (SMC) at the free zone. Besides being used as an ingredient in the production of fertilizers, ammonia is also an important intermediate chemical in the manufacture of synthetic resins (urea based), synthetic fibres (acrylics and nylons, and polyurethanes, among other applications.
  • 6. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Ras Markaz Crude Oil Storage Terminal Oman Tank Terminal Company LLC (OTTCO), a subsidiary of OQ (formerly Oman Oil and Orpic Group), is setting up a major crude oil Storage Terminal at Ras Markaz near Duqm. Total investment in Phase 1 of the storage facility, which at full build will rank among the largest of its kind in the world, is pegged at $1.76 billion. At the heart of the Ras Markaz Crude Oil Terminal project is a vision to position the Sultanate as an international hub for storage of crudes and petroleum derivatives, leveraging Oman’s strategic geographical location on the Indian Ocean. The project also creates an additional port for crude exports. Salalah LPG Project Salalah LPG SFZ Co LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Oman Gas Company (OGC), is investing around $830 million in a 300,000 tonnes per annum of LPG plant in Salalah Free Zone. It includes a high-tech extraction plant with a nameplate capacity to process 9 million standard cubic metres of gas per day.
  • 7. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Mina Sultan Qaboos Waterfront UAE based real estate developer Damac has been selected by the Government of Oman to develop Mina Al Sultan Qaboos into a world-class, waterfront mixed-use destination through a joint venture with Omran, the government’s investment, growth and development arm. ‘Mina Al Sultan Qaboos Waterfront’ is being redeveloped into a $ 2 billion integrated tourist port and lifestyle destination that includes hotels, residences, as well as a dining, retail and leisure offering. Liwa Plastics Industries Complex The Liwa Plastics Industries Complex (LPIC), a signature investment of OQ (formerly Oman Oil & Orpic Group), is a transformational project that will improve the Group’s product mix and business model, increase its profit and support the development of a downstream plastics industry in Oman. Located at Sohar Port, the $6.4 billion project will be formally launched this year. Khazaen Economic City Oman’s first integrated logistics city is coming up on a 52 sq km site near Barka, just off the Batinah Expressway. It will serve as Oman’s northern logistics hub, connecting a number of key development projects across the Sultanate via its extensive dry port facilities. Khazaen will also host dedicated areas for commercial, industrial, and residential use, whilst also providing the residents of the wider region with new health, education and leisure facilities.
  • 8. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Madinat Al Irfan Project Conceived as a new downtown for the capital region, Madinat Al Irfan will come up in multiple phases on prime real estate in Muscat. A joint venture between Omran and Dubai’s Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) will pave the way for investments estimated at $13 billion in commercial, residential, education, healthcare, entertainment, and hospitality developments. Oman Food Investment Holding projects Oman Food Investment Holding Company (OFIC), the wholly government-owned food sector investment flagship, is spearheading the development of projects in dairy, poultry, livestock farming, red meat production, agro production and processing, dates and date processing, and other foodstuff processing schemes. Investments are estimated to total $1 billion and will go a long way in securing Oman’s food requirements. Mazoon Dairy, the flagship venture of OFIC, was launched late last year. Copper Mining in Al Mudhaibi Large-scale copper mining is set to take off in the Sultanate with the joint venture Al Hadeetha Resources set to develop a major copper deposit at Washihi-Mazzaza in Al Mudhaibi Wilayat. It targets the commercialisation of an estimated 16 million tonnes of copper ore — billed as the largest single copper resource in the Sultanate to date. The project includes plans for a 1 million tonnes per annum copper concentration plant with an initial 10-year mine life.
  • 9. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 Kuwait: Kuwait Petroleum & Qatar Petroleum sign LNG agreement Gulf News + NewBase Kuwait Petroleum and Qatar Petroleum have entered into a long term Sale and Purchase Agreement for the supply of up to 3 million tons per annum of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to the State of Kuwait. The agreement was signed by His Excellency Dr. Khaled A. Al-Fadhel, the Minister of Oil and the Minister of Electricity & Water, the Chairman of the Board of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of Qatar Petroleum, during a special ceremony held in Kuwait City. Under the 15-year agreement, LNG deliveries to Kuwait’s new world-class LNG receiving terminal at Al-Zour Port will commence in 2022 to support meeting Kuwait’s growing energy needs and demand, particularly in the power generation sector. His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of Qatar Petroleum welcomed the signing of the agreement and said, 'We are pleased and proud to join hands with Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, and we look forward to providing reliable LNG supplies to our brothers in the State of Kuwait for decades to come.' 'This agreement extends Qatar’s long standing LNG supply relationship with Kuwait well into the 2030’s and highlights our commitment to meeting Kuwait’s LNG requirements. We are confident that the exceptional reliability of our LNG supplies will provide KPC with the required flexibility and supply security to fuel the State of Kuwait’s impressive growth,' His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi concluded. On his part, His Excellency Dr. Khaled A. Al-Fadhel, the Minister of Oil and the Minister of Electricity & Water, the Chairman of the Board of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said, 'The state of Kuwait is embarking on an ambitious path of economic growth, which requires cleaner energy sources such as natural gas that will contribute to reducing emissions and improving local air quality. Whilst KPC is working towards increasing local natural gas production, there remains a pressing need to secure imports of natural gas supplies.' This agreement reinforces the solid brotherly relationship between Kuwait and Qatar and further strengthens the ties between Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Qatar Petroleum.
  • 10. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 NewBase January 08-2020 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil charts steadier course as tensions on Iran strike ebb - for now Reuters + NewBase Oil prices were about 1% higher on Wednesday, but well below highs hit in a frenetic start to the trading day after a rocket attack by Iran on American forces in Iraq raised the specter of a spiraling conflict and disruption to crude flows. Prices gave up most of their gains after early surges as analysts said market tension could ease as long as oil production facilities remain unaffected by attacks. Tweets by U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s foreign minister also appeared to signal a period of calm - for now. Brent crude futures were up 74 cents, or 1.08%, to $69.01 by around 0843 GMT, after earlier rising as high as $71.75, the most since mid-September 2019. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 54 cents, or 0.86%, to $63.24 a barrel. It earlier hit $65.85, the highest since late April last year. Oil price special coverage
  • 11. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 Analysts said oil markets remained focused for now on the targets in the Wednesday attack being military, rather than oil industry facilities. “I think (Brent) prices will yo-yo around $70-75 unless the U.S. escalates by attacks on Iranian territory. But I doubt that Iran will escalate to all-out war, which they cannot win,” said Tilak Doshi, visiting senior fellow, Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore. Early indications suggested no U.S. casualties, one source told Reuters, although other officials declined to comment. Iranian state television said 80 “American terrorists” had been killed and U.S. helicopters and military equipment damaged. Iraq, Germany, Denmark and Norway said none of their troops were killed or injured. “The reality remains that there has been no reports of oil supply disruptions and these attacks were aimed at military installations in Iraq,” said Victor Shum, vice president of energy consulting at IHS Markit in Singapore, adding the world is well supplied with oil at the moment. OPEC RESPONSE The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will respond to any possible oil shortages if necessary but it also has “limitations”, the United Arab Emirates energy minister said on Wednesday. Suhail al-Mazrouei also said he sees no immediate risk of supplies through the important Strait of Hormuz being blocked. (GRAPHIC: Oil, gold prices retreat after initial surge following Iran's attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq -
  • 12. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 Oil Shippers Raise Offers for Middle East Route on Gulf Risk Owners of oil tankers are boosting their rates to haul crude on a key route from the Middle East as risks in the Gulf escalate after Iran retaliated against the U.S. killing of a top general. Shipowners are offering rates for supertankers carrying crude from the Persian Gulf to China at increasingly higher levels, in some cases at least 14% above previous bookings, according to brokers and oil traders in Asia. While there have been no fixtures reported at that level, owners are seeking a premium to enter and load from the region, they said. The spike in costs for the key shipping route shows how the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran is spilling over into global oil supply chains. It’s the latest shock to hit the freight market, which has been shaken over the past year by sanctions on a top Chinese shipowner for transporting Iranian oil and the sabotage of tankers near the Strait of Hormuz -- an act blamed on Iran. More recently, freight rates climbed due to new maritime rules that mandated the use of cleaner-burning ship-fuels. “In a situation like this, it’s not surprising that shipowners are charging higher freight rates, because they have to protect their balance sheets in anticipation of insurance premiums rising,” said Tilak Doshi, a visiting fellow at the NUS Middle East Institute in Singapore who previously worked at Saudi Aramco and Louis Dreyfus Energy. Shipping costs are typically negotiated in terms of Worldscale, an industry standard that reflects a percentage of an underlying flat rate. Shipowners have offered rates for the Middle East to China route of between 165 and 180 Worldscale points, according to the brokers and oil traders in Asia, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak to the media. Earlier this week, ships for the same route were provisionally chartered at between 140 and 150 Worldscale points, up from about 122 before the U.S. airstrikes on Friday.
  • 13. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Oil Markets in Turmoil After Iran Attacks Reignite Supply Fears Bloomberg + NewBase Oil prices jumped back above $70 a barrel after Iran attacked two U.S.-Iraqi bases in its first response to the killing of its top general, before paring much of their advance as Tehran signaled the strike was over. Futures in London initially surged more than 5% as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for the missile strikes, which the Pentagon said were launched from Iran. Prices then pulled back after the country’s foreign minister said it had “concluded proportionate measures in self-defense” and U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that “all is well” following the attacks. While oil flows from the Middle East continue to be unimpeded for now, the risk the conflict will disrupt global supplies is spooking the market. Most crude exports from the Persian Gulf, including shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq, go through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down if there’s a war. The impact of the strike also spilled over into other assets, with gold surging to the highest level in six years, while U.S. and European stock futures declined. Oil has had a dramatic start to the year, triggered by the U.S. airstrike that killed General Qassem Soleimani last week. Iran said Tuesday it was assessing 13 possible ways to inflict a “historic nightmare” on America after the assassination of the military commander near Baghdad’s international airport. “We’re at a point where supplies from the Middle East could be disrupted at any moment as tensions escalate further after Iran’s retaliation,” said Kwangrae Kim, a commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. “Oil markets could see another jump, depending on how the U.S. responds. We should be bracing for a volatile ride.”
  • 14. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 Brent crude rose as much as $3.48 to $71.75 a barrel before trading 0.9% higher at $68.85 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 7:26 a.m. in London. West Texas Intermediate climbed as much as $2.95, or 4.7%, to $65.65 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, later retreating to $63.12. OPEC is confident that Middle East leaders are doing everything possible to restore calm in the region, Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said after the attacks. Iraqi oil facilities remain secure, he said. Investors are paying up to protect against higher prices after the strikes. Call options on WTI -- which allow the holder to buy futures at a set price -- are at the biggest premium to puts since September, when it spiked in the wake of attacks on Saudi Arabian oil sites. Implied volatility -- a key measure of how expensive the options are -- reached the highest since early December. “If Iran seeks further targets for retaliation to the killing of Soleimani, but without crossing declared U.S. red lines that would prompt a military response, energy infrastructure may be appealing,” said Jason Bordoff, a former Obama administration official who now works at Columbia University. An actual supply disruption would send prices soaring, depending on the magnitude and expected duration of the outage, he said. While there’s nervousness around the safety of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, there’s still a comfortable oil supply cushion. OPEC is sitting on huge amounts of spare capacity after reducing supplies for most of the past three years and the U.S., the world’s largest crude producer, recently reported its second consecutive month as a net petroleum exporter. Big oil consumers including the U.S. and China also hold millions of barrels in strategic reserves that can be deployed to offset any shortage. The risk premium is “likely to come back into place,” Daniel Hynes, a senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “The risks to ongoing disruptions in the industry are very high.”
  • 15. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 NewBase Special Coverage The Energy world – Special Jan-08-2020 Energy commodity prices rose more than other goods in 2019 And Oil prices were lower than 2018. U.S. EIA, based on S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) The energy portion of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) ended 2019 22% higher than it began the year. Price indexes for other commodity types also increased in 2019, but not as much as the energy commodity index. Composed of 24 individual commodity contracts organized into five sub-indexes, the values of the GSCI and its sub-indexes are calculated as weighted averages. The weight assigned to each commodity reflects its significance to the world economy in a given year as measured by its production volume and liquidity. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil ended the year 31% and 20% higher, respectively, than on January 2, 2019. WTI’s increase of 31% was the largest increase of all GSCI commodities in 2019. Other energy commodities such as RBOB (reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending— essentially the petroleum component of motor gasoline), heating oil, and gasoil rose by 28%, 19%, and 19%, respectively, in 2019. Natural gas was the only GSCI energy commodity to decrease in 2019: prompt-month natural gas futures sold on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 26% from $2.96 per million British thermal
  • 16. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 units (MMBtu) on January 2 to $2.19/MMBtu on December 31—the largest percentage decline of all commodities in the GSCI in 2019. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) Price changes for each commodity are weighted by their relative importance in the broader market. WTI and Brent crude oil prices accounted for 72% of the weighting in the S&P GSCI energy index and 45% of the total GSCI in 2019. Since the creation of the GSCI in 1991, WTI and Brent have been the GSCI’s highest and second- highest weighted commodities, respectively, so both the GSCI and the energy sub-index tend to follow major price movements of these crude oils. Prices of many nonenergy commodities tend to move in the same direction as energy commodities. For instance, because consumers use more copper and more crude oil when the economy is expanding, copper prices and the Brent crude oil price typically move together.
  • 17. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 Conversely, precious metals such as gold and silver are typically seen as safe assets with values that increase with economic contractions. Gold and silver prices are positively correlated with each other but negatively correlated with commodities associated with economic expansion. Note: Correlation values are based on the correlation coefficient of the weekly dollar price changes of two commodities’ prices between January 2 and December 31, 2019. Crude oil prices were generally lower in 2019 than in 2018 The price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, averaged $64 per barrel (b) in 2019, $7/b lower than its 2018 average. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, averaged $57/b in 2019, $7/b lower than in 2018. Compared with recent years, both crude oil prices traded within relatively narrow price ranges throughout the year. Brent prices reached an annual daily low of $55/b in early January, rising to a daily high of $75/b in late April. The resulting range of $20/b is the narrowest since 2003. WTI prices ranged from $47/b to $66/b. More recently, crude oil prices have increased following the January 3 U.S. military operation in Iraq, likely reflecting an increase in geopolitical risk. Although the 2019 range of daily prices remained relatively narrow, Brent and WTI front-month futures prices did experience their largest single-day price increases since 2008. On Monday, September 16, 2019, the first full day of trading after an attack on key energy installations in Saudi Arabia, Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by $9/b and $8/b, respectively. The price increases were relatively short lived, and prices returned to pre-attack levels by the end of the month because of Saudi Arabia’s ability to bring production back online within weeks of the attack and global concerns about demand growth. Throughout 2019, increases in U.S. petroleum production put downward pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, the production increases likely limited the effect on prices from the attack on Saudi Arabia, production cut announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
  • 18. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 Countries (OPEC), and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela that limited crude oil exports from those countries. Outside the United States, crude oil production from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran declined in 2019. EIA expects that total OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.8 million b/d in 2019, a decline from the 2018 average of 32.0 million b/d. U.S. crude oil imports from OPEC countries were at their lowest level in several decades. To continue limiting excess crude oil supply, on December 7, 2019, OPEC+ (OPEC plus 10 other nations such as Russia, Mexico, and Kazakhstan) announced they were deepening the production cuts originally announced in December 2018. Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly data through October and short-term forecasts for November and December, 2019 will likely be a record year for several U.S. crude oil and petroleum metrics. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil and other liquids production will reach an annual average of 19.6 million barrels per day (b/d), the highest level on record. EIA also expects U.S. crude oil production will average 12.3 million b/d in 2019, making the United States the largest crude oil producer in the world. In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA expects U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports will average 490,000 b/d in 2019, down from 2.3 million b/d in 2018. In September and October, the United States exported more petroleum (crude oil and products) than it imported for the first time on record, based on monthly values since 1973. EIA’s monthly data through December 2019 will be available by the end of February 2020.
  • 19. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE The Editor :”Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b Mobile: +971504822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 28 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 2020 K. Al Awadi
  • 20. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20
  • 21. Copyright © 2020 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21 For Your Recruitments needs and Top Talents, please seek our approved agents below