New base 26 july 2021 energy news issue 1445 by khaled al awad i

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NewBase Energy News 26 July 2021 - Issue No. 1445 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
U.A.E: Dewa, Stanford on hitech PV system at Al Maktoum Solar Park
Wam
Dubai Electricity and Water Authority's (Dewa), using its Space-D programme, has collaborated with
Stanford University to develop an advanced system to forecast Photovoltaic (PV) production in the
short term at the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, the largest single-site solar park
in the world using the Independent Power Producer (IPP) model with a planned capacity of
5,000MW by 2030.
The new system reduces errors in the forecast to less than 10 per cent, said a statement from
Dewa. This supports the utility's efforts to achieve the Dubai Clean Energy Strategy 2050 to provide
75 percent of Dubai’s total power capacity from clean energy sources by 2050.
The system uses modern technologies such as artificial intelligence, deep learning, high-density
cameras on the main satellite and a network of metrological stations to predict irradiance, dust and
cloud movement, which can affect PV performance, it added.

Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of Dewa, said: "We are collaborating with Stanford
University at Dewa’s R&D Centre through our membership in the Energy 3.0 programme from the
university."
"The R&D centre focuses on enhancing partnerships, especially among the academic community
and harnesses all capabilities to anticipate the future, develop long-term proactive plans to keep
pace with the Fourth Industrial Revolution and innovate disruptive technologies to provide world-
class services that enhance the quality of life in Dubai," he stated.
Prof Adam Brandt, Associate Professor of Energy Resources Engineering at Stanford University,
expressed delight at the tieup with Dewa on this world-leading solar project. "Improving the ability
to forecast solar PV output will help not only Dubai but the entire world, as we shift increasingly to
a clean solar-based economy," he noted.
Executive VP (Business Development and
Excellence) Waleed Salman, said the
collaboration also exchanges knowledge
and experience to resolve critical energy
issues worldwide, accelerate innovation,
research and studies in advanced
renewable and alternative energy.
"The R&D Centre supports Dewa’s efforts
to overcome challenges in the energy
sector when generating electricity from
solar and clean energy," said Dr Saif Saeed
Almheiri, Vice President of Research &
Development at Dewa."This supports the Centre’s goals to become a global platform for promising
solutions that enrich the scientific community in the UAE and the world," he added.

Saudi fuel service station provider plans Egypt expansion
REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany By Staff Writer, Arab News
The Riyadh-headquartered Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Co. (Aldrees) has submitted
a request to acquire service stations in Egypt, as part of a wider plan to expand into the North African
country.
Argaam reported that Aldrees had not yet received a response to its acquisition query but it is
planning to open 60 fuel stations in Egypt during the second half of 2021, bringing its total number
of outlets to 644.
At the end of last year, the company owned 584 stations. Earlier this month, Vice Chairman
Abdulmohsen Aldrees told Argaam that it is aiming to have a total of 1,000 stations within the next
five years.
The Kingdom has around 11,000 fuel stations and the company said it currently holds around a 5.3
percent stake, with 90 percent of the facilities in the Kingdom owned by individual owners and only
the remaining 10 percent in the hands of larger companies.
Aldrees reported a net profit after Zakat and tax of SR75.3 million ($20.08 million) for the first half
of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 69 percent. Saudi Arabia announced on July 10 it was putting
a price cap on gasoline, to support local consumption and economy growth, as oil prices hit
multiyear highs this year.
It is the first time the country is capping prices since it first liberalized them in 2018 and linked them
to international price movement. The Kingdom issued a royal directive to keep gasoline prices at
SR2.18 for octane 91 and SR2.33 for octane 95, the Saudi Press Agency reported, citing the Energy
and Water Price Reforms Executive Committee.

Iraq, Total to work on associated gas, solar power projects
Bloomberg + NewBase
Iraq and French oil major Total agreed to jointly work on developing four associated gas and solar
power projects, the country's oil ministry said March 29, as OPEC's second largest producer seeks
to reduce dependence on Iranian energy imports needed for power generation.
The most important project is construction of complexes and units to treat associated gas, which
will be in two phases with a capacity of 600 million cf, the ministry said. The other projects are a
solar energy plant with capacity of 1,000 MW for the Ministry of Electricity, a sea water project and
development of the Ratawi field to increase natural gas output.
Iraq and Total, which signed on Jan. 27 a memorandum of understanding for developing "big
projects," want to cooperate on associated gas projects in Ratawi in the south, Diyala in the east
and Anbar in the northeast, Iraq's Oil Minister Ihsan Ismaael said in a ministry statement on March 17.
Iraq is trying to lower its dependence on
Iranian gas and electricity imports as it
comes under increasing US pressure.
Since the US imposed sanctions on
Tehran's energy sector in 2018, Iraq has
been receiving waivers from Washington
to continue importing energy from Iran.
Iraq needs Iranian energy imports to avert
acute power shortages that have led to
protests in the past, especially in the hot
summer months when temperatures can
reach 50 C in the south.
Gas flaring
Iraq mainly produces gas that is pumped
with oil, which is subject to OPEC+ quota
restrictions, limiting the amount that can
be used for power generation. Iraq also
plans to capture associated gas that is
mostly burned, with the country branded
as the world's second-worst gas flaring
nation after Russia in 2019, according to a World Bank report.
Iraq has plans to import electricity from Saudi Arabia, the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council,
Turkey and Jordan and is also mulling developing solar power projects to help plug power
shortages.
Total has limited operations in Iraq compared to other oil majors such as ExxonMobil, Eni and BP.
In the associated gas agreement, Total will establish a central gas complex in Ratawi with the aim
of collecting and refining associated gas from Ratawi,
West Qurnah/2, Majnun, Tuba and Lahis oil fields. Iraq said it has been trying to start the integrated
seawater project for more than 10 years, but did not elaborate on what is involved. The Ratawi field
project will seek to maximize natural gas production, according to the statement.
The French company has a 22.5% stake in Halfaya oil field in Missan province in the south and also
holds an 18% stake in Sarsang exploration block in the semiautonomous Kurdish region in the north.

Iraq suffers from acute gas shortages as 50% of gross gas produced is routinely flared (see chart),
with almost all of the remaining 1.29bn cfd sales gas output used for power generation. To cover
the gap Baghdad imports 750mn from neighboring Iran in addition to more than 1,250 MW in
electricity, but power provision is still lacking.
The bulk of Iraq’s gas processing capacity lies with the Shell-led Basrah Gas Company (BGC: South
Gas Company 51%, Shell 44%, Mitsubishi 5%). BGC processes gas from the BP-operated Rumaila
field, Eni’s Zubair and Exxon’s West Qurna-1. BGC in 2019 took FID on a 400mn cfd two-train
expansion project to boost its processing capacity to 1.4bn cfd (MEES, 15 February 2019). Also
located at Ratawi, this is due to be finished by end-2023.
Finalization of the Ratawi South Gas Project would be a major boost for Iraq’s plans to fully eliminate
gas flaring. The deadline for this ambition was last year pushed back from 2021 to 2025 in an
acknowledgement of slow progress on various projects (MEES, 28 August 2020).
Nevertheless, during a high-level delegation visit to Saudi Arabia this week, Mr Ismaael was far
more optimistic. Not only will Iraq eliminate flaring by 2025, but it will also boost gas production from
around 3bn cfd currently “to a level between 4 and 5bn cfd.” The likelihood of this being achieved
appears very slim.
As Iraq pushes to expand its gas capacity, there are a range of other gas projects up for grabs in
“Maysan, Dhi Qar, Akkas in Anbar and Mansuriya in Diyala” according to Karim Hattab, the oil
minister’s deputy for upstream affairs. Baker Hughes finally inked a contract to process 200mn cfd
in Dhi Qar’s Nasiriyah field in January (MEES, 29 January) replacing a previous contract signed
three years prior
Baghdad is struggling to kick-start development of two non-associated gas fields, Mansuriya and
Akkas, with planned combined capacity of 500mn cfd. The ministry has given up on majors taking
the fields given security concerns (MEES, 19 February) and hopes to bring in “second tier”
companies.

Germany: US reach deal on controversial Russian gas pipeline
BBC news + NewBase
The US says it has reached a deal with Germany to prevent Russia from using its Nord Stream 2
gas pipeline as political leverage over Europe. The near-complete 1,230km (764 miles) pipeline
under the Baltic Sea will double Russian gas exports to Germany.
US official Victoria Nuland said it was "a bad pipeline", but said the deal envisaged sanctions against
Moscow if it tried to blackmail Ukraine.
Ukraine says the Nord Stream 2
pipeline threatens its security.
The country has been fighting Russian-
backed separatists in the east since
2014. Russia also annexed the Crimea
peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. Kyiv
fears a full-scale Russian invasion once
Nord Stream 2 is fully operational.
Ukraine also stands to lose about $3bn
(£2.2bn) a year in gas transit fees.
Poland is also opposing the pipeline,
which runs from Vyborg in Russia under
the Baltic Sea to Lubmin in Germany.
Poland says the $10bn project
threatens the security of central and
eastern Europe.
Russia denies this and describes the
project as commercially beneficial for all
involved.
Under the terms of the US-German deal, Ukraine will get $50 million in green energy technology
credits and a guarantee of repayment for gas transit fees it will lose by being bypassed by the
pipeline through 2024, according to the Associated Press.
In May, US President Joe Biden's administration waived sanctions on a company building the
pipeline, despite a strong opposition from Republican lawmakers.
Mr Biden's White House opposes the pipeline, but analysts say he is reluctant to risk a transatlantic
rift with Germany at a time when he has been trying to reach out to European allies.
Like its already operational twin Nord Stream, the new pipeline will have the capacity of 55bn cubic
metres of gas per year to Europe.

U.S. gas prices at multi-year highs will protect stocks: Kemp
Reuters - John Kemp
Natural gas is transferred into the SoCalGas system after being collected and purified at a Calgren
collection facility in Pixley, California, U.S., October 2, 2019. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo
Front-month futures prices for gas delivered at Henry Hub climbed to over $3.95 per million British
thermal units on Wednesday, the highest since late 2018 and before that late 2014, up from just
$1.68 a year ago.
In contrast to crude oil, gas futures typically trade in contango, with nearby contracts trading at a
discount to later-dated ones, driven by the greater technical challenges and cost of storing a gas
rather than a liquid.
But the six-month calendar spread has narrowed to just a 9 cent contango, in the 76th percentile,
compared with a contango of $1.11 a year ago, in the 2nd percentile for all trading days since 2010.
The epidemic depressed gas consumption in the second and third quarters of 2020 and led to a
large build up of inventories (https://tmsnrt.rs/3rtwTaT).
Late last year, working stocks in underground storage had risen to almost 4,000 billion cubic metres,
according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration ("Weekly natural gas storage
report", July 22).

But ultra-low prices depressed drilling and production through the second half of 2020 and into
2021, curbing the stock build and holding inventories just below the previous record.
Then the blast of cold weather that hit Texas in February accelerated the rebalancing process by
boosting consumption and more importantly leading to a large loss of production as wells froze off.
By April, stocks had fallen below the five-year average, since when prices and spreads have climbed
sharply higher to conserve the remaining inventories.
Rebalancing has been helped by close to average temperatures the most populous areas of the
United States since June, notwithstanding the heatwave in the Northwest, limiting overall electricity
use from air-conditioning.
PROTECTING STOCKS
In the short term, higher gas prices will encourage power generators to run gas-fired turbines for
fewer hours over the next few months, running coal-fired units instead, to reduce gas combustion.
In the medium term, higher prices should encourage a faster rise in gas-directed drilling and
production, which will filter through in the first half of 2022.
So far, rig counts and output have barely recovered from last year's slump. The number of gas rigs
has risen by just 36 or 53% from its cyclical low in July 2020, compared with an increase of 199 or
110% in oil-directed rigs.

As a result, gas production in the three months between February and April was unchanged from
the same period two years earlier, after growing rapidly at an average rate of 4.6% per year between
2010 and 2018.
If higher prices are sustained, however,
there is scope for the rig count and output
to increase significantly. The last time
prices were at current levels, in late 2018,
the number of active rigs was almost
double, at nearly 200.
Since then, the industry has consolidated
and many of the larger producers are
focused on returning money to
shareholders and strengthening balance
sheets, rather than growing production.
Nonetheless, prices are sending a strong
signal about the need for higher output,
with a return to significant production
growth likely over the next 12 months.

U.S. N.gas exports to Mexico, a new monthly record in June 2021
Source: Graph by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from Wood Mackenzie
Natural gas pipeline exports from the United States to Mexico surpassed 7 billion cubic feet per day
(Bcf/d) on multiple days during June, according to data from Wood Mackenzie. The highest amount
of pipeline exports, 7.4 Bcf/d, was sent out on June 17.
Over the past few years, Mexico has expanded its natural gas pipeline infrastructure and has relied
increasingly on imported natural gas from U.S. pipelines. Pipeline imports accounted for 76% of
Mexico’s total natural gas supply in June 2021, compared with 40% in June 2015. Mexico has
reduced both its natural gas production and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a share of its
total natural gas supply.
U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.8 Bcf/d in June 2021, up 25% from June
2020 and 44% more than the previous five-year (2016–2020) monthly average. We expect these
record-high flows, which were driven by increased power demand, high temperatures, and greater
industrial demand in June, to continue through the summer.
New pipeline additions that went into service during 2020 and in the first half of 2021 increased the
volume of natural gas flowing to natural gas-fired power plants, industrial plants, and pipeline
interconnections throughout Mexico.
Two cross-border pipelines drove the growth: the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline, which has a
capacity of 2.6 Bcf/d and delivers natural gas from the U.S. border at Brownsville, Texas, to Tuxpan

in Veracruz, Mexico, and the Trans-Pecos Pipeline (part of the Wahalajara system), which has a
capacity of 1.4 Bcf/d and delivers natural gas to the U.S. border at Presidio, Texas.
The Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline increased flows to an estimated 1.7 Bcf/d in June 2021,
compared with year-ago levels of 0.8 Bcf/d. The pipeline’s volume increased because of expanded
infrastructure in Mexico, which has allowed more natural gas to flow to power plants in the Mexico
City region and to Mérida markets in the Yucatán Peninsula.
The Trans-Pecos Pipeline increased flows to the Wahalajara pipeline system to 0.8 Bcf/d, compared
with year-ago levels of 0.2 Bcf/d. This pipeline connects the Waha Hub in West Texas to
Guadalajara and other population centers in West-Central Mexico.
Some of this increase is the result of the increased flow capacity on the Villa de Reyes-
Aguascalientes-Guadalajara Pipeline (VAG) in Central Mexico and subsequent delivery points that
entered service when the pipeline was completed in October 2020.
Because of increased access to natural gas imports, Mexico has increased its use of natural gas to
generate electricity. Power plants in Mexico used about 4.9 Bcf/d of natural gas for power generation
in June, up 19% compared with last year.
Seasonally high temperatures in areas of Northern and Central Mexico during parts of June also
increased demand for electricity. Industrial sector natural gas demand reached 3.3 Bcf/d in June,
up 31% compared with last year, largely driven by the return to pre-pandemic demand levels and
the reversal of related economic effects.

NewBase July 26-2021 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil falls $1/bbl as coronavirus, floods threaten demand
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices fell nearly $1 on Monday as concerns about fuel demand from the spread of COVID-19
variants, as well as floods in China, offset expectations of tight supplies through the rest of the year.
Brent crude futures for September fell 93 cents, or 1.26%, to $73.17 a barrel by 0927 GMT while
U.S. Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.05 a barrel, down 102 cents. Earlier, both contracts
dipped just over $1.
Coronavirus cases continued to rise over the weekend with some countries posting record daily
increases and extending lockdown measures that could slow oil demand. China, the world's largest
crude importer, has also seen a rise in COVID-19 cases while the nation battled severe floods and
a typhoon in central and eastern parts of the country. read more
Also, Beijing's crackdown on the misuse of import quotas combined with the impact of high crude
prices could see China's growth in oil imports sink to the lowest in two decades in 2021, despite an
expected rise in refining rates in the second half. read more
Oil price special
coverage

"The delta variant is still spreading and China has started to clamp down on teapots so their import
growth would not be that much," said Avtar Sandu, a senior commodities manager at Singapore's
Phillips Futures, referring to independent refiners.
He added that investors are looking ahead to the next Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. oil
inventories data later this week for price direction.
Strong U.S. demand and expectations of tight supplies are underpinning prices, enabling both
contracts to recover from a 7% slump last Monday to mark their first gains in 2-3 weeks last week.
"Bargain hunters came in droves when Brent got below $70 and the economic demand for energy
looks robust," Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore's OCBC Bank said.
"Demand data especially from the U.S. continues to be strong and has reduced those concerns."
Global oil markets are expected to remain in deficit despite a decision by the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies to raise production through the rest of the year.
The prospect of a swift return of Iranian supplies is diminishing as talks to revive a 2015 nuclear
deal have been pushed back to August. Meanwhile, the United States is considering cracking down
on Iranian oil sales to China as it braces for the possibility that Tehran may not return to nuclear
talks or may adopt a harder line whenever it does, a U.S. official said. read more
In the United States, the recovery in oil drilling has been modest as producers restrained spending.
U.S. oil rigs rose by seven to 387 last week, their highest since April 2020, energy services firm
Baker Hughes Co (BKR.N) said on Friday.
Monday's sell-off also came on the heels of a Friday report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) which showed that money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and
options positions in the week to July 20.

NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world – July - 26- -2021
U.S. Jet Fuel Glut Is Too Big for Surging Air Travel to Drain
Jeffrey Bair and Jill R. Shah , ©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
The U.S. is swimming in so much jet fuel that even this summer’s surge in air travel can’t save the
market.
Air traffic in the U.S. has jumped to more than 2 million passengers a day, about 78% of where it
was in the summer of 2019, according to the Transportation Security Administration.
That’s done little to diminish the massive glut in jet fuel stockpiles, which stand at their highest
seasonal level in a decade. Part of the problem is that refiners are trying to cash in on resurgent
gasoline demand by raising production rates, which indirectly leads to more jet fuel output.
The global oil market can’t fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until jet fuel consumption is back to
normal. The U.S. has one barrel of jet fuel for every three barrels of diesel and every five barrels of
gasoline in inventory, Energy Information Administration figures show, leaving the aviation sector
exerting considerable influence on how much refiners can process.
“Traffic data is a false flag for the jet fuel market,” said Zachary Rogers, director of global oil service
at Rapidan Energy Group. “The real metric is the quantity of international flights, which at this point
has barely recovered, and there are looming headwinds.”

The best indicator of the market mismatch is the widening gap between jet fuel and diesel. Typically
the two products trade within a nickel of each other but currently physical jet fuel is 18 cents a gallon
less in the U.S. Gulf Coast refining hub. Most analysts say a 10-cent spread would point to the
beginning of a recovery in jet fuel markets.
“Meeting gasoline demand meant swamping the market with jet fuel, which bled into the diesel pool,
as refiners can only minimize middle distillate supplies to a certain extent,” said Linda Giesecke,
manager of global fuels at ESAI Energy.
Most forecasts for the recovery in aviation place the return to pre-2020 conditions at next year or
later. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts wrote in a recent note that world jet fuel consumption will be
at 80% of normal after next winter.
Some airlines are still advising caution over the travel comeback, with Southwest Airlines Co. and
American Airlines Group Inc. reining in optimism this week. The return of vital international business
trips remains cloudy, with flights still restricted from much of Europe and the U.K. as the delta variant
gains ground.
The big gains in jet fuel demand already have been made, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader
at CIBC Private Wealth, US. The market will continue to move toward firmer footing, but the rate of
change may slow, she said.
“I feel like the market really is anticipating still significant improvements, and I think they might be a
little smaller than that,” she said.

NewBase Energy News 26 July 2021 - Issue No. 1445 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General
Petroleum Corp. “Emarat “with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC
area via Hawk Energy Service, as the UAE operations base. Khaled is the Founder
of NewBase Energy news articles issues, an international consultant, advisor,
ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste
management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and
sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities &
gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas
pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted &
finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements.
Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass
energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous
conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor-
in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with more than 1400 popular
articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste
management and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference
for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC
leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above.

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