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averages to eliminate monthly and
seasonal variations.
This is an extraordinarily tough market
for buyers. It's important to be calm and
realistic. If you don't know what to do or
where to begin, give me a call and let's
discuss your situation and your options.
After reaching new highs in October, sale
prices for single-family, re-sale homes in
San Francisco dropped in November. The
median price for homes fell 9.8% from
October, while the average price dropped
13.7%.
Year-over-year, the median sales price
for homes was up 12.7% and the average
price gained 23%.
Home sales fell 14% from October, and
they were off 46% year-over-year. Year-
to-date, home sales are down 14.6%.
Condo/loft prices also fell last month. The
median sales price was down 1.8% from
October, year-over-year it was up 1.5%.
The average sales price lost 5% from
October. It was flat year-over-year.
Condo/loft sales were off 14% from
October, and, they were down 23,7%
year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo/loft
sales are 2.5%.
Multiple offers continue to be the norm.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what
buyers are paying over what sellers are
asking remains in the triple digits:
105.2% for homes and 101.5% for
condos/lofts.
Average days on market, or the time from
when a property is listed to when it goes
into contract, was down to 26 for homes
and 36 for condos/lofts.
for homes plunged 7.6 points to –16.2.
Sales momentum for condos/lofts was
down 3.1 points to –1.2.
for single-family homes
fell 0.1 of a point to
+14.5. Pricing
momentum for
condos/lofts fell 1.5
points to +8.4.
Our momentum
statistics are based on
12-month moving
Hill & Company
1880 Lombard Street
San, Francisco 94123
Fax: (415) 202-1686
Cell: (415) 819-2663
AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com
http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com
DRE #01393923
Annie Williams
ANNIE WILLIAMS | ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM | HTTP://WWW.ANNIEWILLIAMSHOMES.COM
-30.0
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2018 rereport.com
Nov 18 Month % Oct 18 Year % Nov 17
Median Price: 1,442,500$ -9.8% 1,600,000$ 12.7% 1,280,000$
Average Price: 1,874,518$ -13.7% 2,173,190$ 23.0% 1,524,443$
Home Sales: 208 -14.0% 242 -46.0% 385
Sale/List Price Ratio: 107.1% -1.3% 108.6% -3.0% 110.4%
Days on Market: 26 8.3% 24 -8.6% 28
Nov 18 Month % Oct 18 Year % Nov 17
Median Price: 1,200,000$ -1.8% 1,222,000$ 1.5% 1,182,500$
Average Price: 1,276,616$ -5.0% 1,343,810$ 0.0% 1,277,100$
Home Sales: 245 -14.0% 285 -23.7% 321
Sale/List Price Ratio: 103.4% -3.1% 106.7% -0.5% 103.8%
Days on Market: 36 44.0% 25 6.7% 34
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
(Condominiums)
November 30, 2018 -- It's no secret that home sales
have lacked traction for a good number of months
now. Even with a modest 1.4% rise in existing home
sales in October, the truth is that they still remain
more than 5% below the same period last year. This
week, the National Association of Realtors noted that
their Pending Home Sales Index for October fell by
2.6%, making it now 10 consecutive months where
pending sales were lower when compared to year-
ago readings. The PSHI is based on signed contract
to buy; home purchase transaction commonly take
45-60 days to complete, and so are a harbinger for at
least a part the expected trend for existing home
sales for November and December. Those sales
figures won't come for about 4 and 8 weeks, respec-
tively.
Although it remains at a robust level, we learned last
week that enthusiasm among homebuilders had
dropped sharply in November amid a lackluster and
challenging construction climate. This week we
learned the reason for the souring demeanor: Fewer
folks are buying the homes they are building.
Sales of new homes slumped by 8.9% in October,
continuing a downtrend that began after an expan-
sion peak for sales of 712,000 (annualized) units last
November. A year on, and the present rate of sale
has slid all the way to 544,000 annual units, some
12% below the same period last year. There was a
bit of a bright spot in an upward revision for Septem-
ber sales (from 552K to 597K) but very little to be
excited about in the current climate. With the slump
in sales, supplies of unsold homes swelled to 7.4
months, a level rather above optimal stockpiles of
perhaps 6 months, and one that will likely put a
damper on new construction trends for a while. The
336,000 built-and-ready to sell units available is the
highest number of the economic expansion to date.
Moving the needle higher for new home sales may
be difficult, at least for a time. Of late, somewhat
more existing home inventory has become available
and so competes against more expensive new stock;
as well, it is likely difficult to build homes in the mar-
kets that most need additional new inventory as
tracts of open land are scarce. Other headwinds such
as firming mortgage rates don't help either, and with
the homebuying season giving way to the holiday
season, it may be spring before we see much by way
of improvement.
With Black Friday behind us and the normally-quiet-
for-housing holiday season kicking in, it doesn't seem
likely that we'll see home sales get much of a lift
anytime soon. Mortgage rates have backed off from
recent peak levels by about an eighth of a percent-
age point which may help a bit, and with the influen-
tial 10-year Treasury holding a yield of just about 3%
(Continued on page 4)
ANNIE WILLIAMS
HILL & COMPANY
FAX: (415) 202-1686
ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM
DRE #01393923
The chart above shows the National month-
ly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compiled by http://www.freddiemac.com/.
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
01-10
07-10
01-11
07-11
01-12
07-12
01-13
07-13
01-14
07-14
01-15
07-15
01-16
07-16
01-17
07-17
01-18
07-18
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
0
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2018 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,442,500$ 1,874,518$ 208 26 107.1% 12.7% 23.0% -46.0% -9.8% -13.7% -14.0%
D1: Northwest 1,812,500$ 2,112,132$ 18 27 106.3% -6.6% 8.5% 0.0% -15.3% -2.1% -25.0%
D2: Central West 1,350,000$ 1,361,500$ 35 23 117.3% 4.7% -0.4% -12.5% -2.2% -8.1% 6.1%
D3: Southwest 1,100,000$ 1,141,000$ 13 34 107.5% -22.0% -19.9% 0.0% -4.8% -14.0% -23.5%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,602,500$ 1,742,369$ 32 20 110.4% 1.1% 7.1% -13.5% -9.2% -5.1% -17.9%
D5: Central 2,100,000$ 2,403,233$ 35 25 103.8% -18.0% -7.7% -10.3% -16.0% -12.5% -14.6%
D6: Central North 5,750,000$ 5,750,000$ 1 9 119.8% 115.6% 125.8% -75.0% 109.9% 138.6% -66.7%
D7: North 4,395,000$ 5,020,409$ 11 38 95.6% 8.2% 12.7% 10.0% -28.5% -40.4% 0.0%
D8: Northeast 3,040,000$ 3,040,000$ 2 14 101.4% 15.5% 26.6% -33.3% -81.0% -81.0% 100.0%
D9: Central East 1,480,000$ 1,935,095$ 21 36 108.4% -9.5% 10.2% -16.0% -0.9% 19.0% -19.2%
D10: Southeast 1,000,000$ 1,045,885$ 40 23 115.6% 13.6% 8.6% -23.1% -12.9% -7.5% -9.1%
November Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
ANNIE WILLIAMS
HILL & COMPANY
FAX: (415) 202-1686
ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM
DRE #013939230
10
20
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90
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San Francisco Homes: Days on Market
© 2018 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum
Sales Pricing © 2018 rereport.com
0
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2018 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,200,000$ 1,276,616$ 245 36 103.4% 1.5% 0.0% -23.7% -1.8% -5.0% -14.0%
D1: Northwest 1,252,000$ 1,282,347$ 15 41 103.7% 5.4% 1.7% 7.1% -7.3% -6.3% -11.8%
D2: Central West 675,000$ 1,011,667$ 3 85 109.6% -27.4% 1.5% 0.0% -45.8% -16.2% -70.0%
D3: Southwest 930,000$ 942,500$ 4 28 100.7% 7.5% 9.0% 100.0% 18.0% 24.9% 33.3%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,495,000$ 1,306,400$ 5 55 102.9% 145.1% 79.3% 25.0% 76.0% 49.9% -37.5%
D5: Central 1,532,500$ 1,457,951$ 42 25 108.7% 7.5% -0.6% 2.4% 12.0% 5.8% -6.7%
D6: Central North 1,250,000$ 1,201,429$ 21 28 106.0% -3.1% -8.0% -34.4% 29.2% 6.4% -19.2%
D7: North 1,315,000$ 1,503,967$ 30 23 104.1% -29.0% -33.9% 7.1% -7.0% -6.0% 50.0%
D8: Northeast 1,010,000$ 1,367,248$ 26 56 99.1% -16.9% -3.8% -45.8% -19.2% -9.7% -33.3%
D9: Central East 1,070,000$ 1,189,464$ 87 38 101.0% -7.7% 0.9% -12.1% -14.4% -13.0% -15.5%
D10: Southeast 609,000$ 675,997$ 6 71 101.2% -30.7% -19.3% 0.0% -19.3% -10.5% 200.0%
November Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
Annie Williams
Hill & Company
1880 Lombard Street
San, Francisco 94123
late Friday and other indicators also soften-
ing, we think there's a good chance of a 3-4
basis point decline in the average 30-year
FRM reported by Freddie Mac come next
Thursday, even with the first-week-of-the-
month slew of top-tier economic data hitting
the markets.
(Continued from page 2)
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change
© 2018 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2018 rereport.com

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San Francisco Home Sales Decline as Prices Drop in November

  • 1. averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options. After reaching new highs in October, sale prices for single-family, re-sale homes in San Francisco dropped in November. The median price for homes fell 9.8% from October, while the average price dropped 13.7%. Year-over-year, the median sales price for homes was up 12.7% and the average price gained 23%. Home sales fell 14% from October, and they were off 46% year-over-year. Year- to-date, home sales are down 14.6%. Condo/loft prices also fell last month. The median sales price was down 1.8% from October, year-over-year it was up 1.5%. The average sales price lost 5% from October. It was flat year-over-year. Condo/loft sales were off 14% from October, and, they were down 23,7% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo/loft sales are 2.5%. Multiple offers continue to be the norm. The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking remains in the triple digits: 105.2% for homes and 101.5% for condos/lofts. Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was down to 26 for homes and 36 for condos/lofts. for homes plunged 7.6 points to –16.2. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down 3.1 points to –1.2. for single-family homes fell 0.1 of a point to +14.5. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts fell 1.5 points to +8.4. Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San, Francisco 94123 Fax: (415) 202-1686 Cell: (415) 819-2663 AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com DRE #01393923 Annie Williams ANNIE WILLIAMS | ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM | HTTP://WWW.ANNIEWILLIAMSHOMES.COM -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 0 6 MM J S N 0 7 MM J S N 0 8 MM J S N 0 9 MM J S N 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum Sales Pricing © 2018 rereport.com Nov 18 Month % Oct 18 Year % Nov 17 Median Price: 1,442,500$ -9.8% 1,600,000$ 12.7% 1,280,000$ Average Price: 1,874,518$ -13.7% 2,173,190$ 23.0% 1,524,443$ Home Sales: 208 -14.0% 242 -46.0% 385 Sale/List Price Ratio: 107.1% -1.3% 108.6% -3.0% 110.4% Days on Market: 26 8.3% 24 -8.6% 28 Nov 18 Month % Oct 18 Year % Nov 17 Median Price: 1,200,000$ -1.8% 1,222,000$ 1.5% 1,182,500$ Average Price: 1,276,616$ -5.0% 1,343,810$ 0.0% 1,277,100$ Home Sales: 245 -14.0% 285 -23.7% 321 Sale/List Price Ratio: 103.4% -3.1% 106.7% -0.5% 103.8% Days on Market: 36 44.0% 25 6.7% 34 Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes) (Condominiums)
  • 2. November 30, 2018 -- It's no secret that home sales have lacked traction for a good number of months now. Even with a modest 1.4% rise in existing home sales in October, the truth is that they still remain more than 5% below the same period last year. This week, the National Association of Realtors noted that their Pending Home Sales Index for October fell by 2.6%, making it now 10 consecutive months where pending sales were lower when compared to year- ago readings. The PSHI is based on signed contract to buy; home purchase transaction commonly take 45-60 days to complete, and so are a harbinger for at least a part the expected trend for existing home sales for November and December. Those sales figures won't come for about 4 and 8 weeks, respec- tively. Although it remains at a robust level, we learned last week that enthusiasm among homebuilders had dropped sharply in November amid a lackluster and challenging construction climate. This week we learned the reason for the souring demeanor: Fewer folks are buying the homes they are building. Sales of new homes slumped by 8.9% in October, continuing a downtrend that began after an expan- sion peak for sales of 712,000 (annualized) units last November. A year on, and the present rate of sale has slid all the way to 544,000 annual units, some 12% below the same period last year. There was a bit of a bright spot in an upward revision for Septem- ber sales (from 552K to 597K) but very little to be excited about in the current climate. With the slump in sales, supplies of unsold homes swelled to 7.4 months, a level rather above optimal stockpiles of perhaps 6 months, and one that will likely put a damper on new construction trends for a while. The 336,000 built-and-ready to sell units available is the highest number of the economic expansion to date. Moving the needle higher for new home sales may be difficult, at least for a time. Of late, somewhat more existing home inventory has become available and so competes against more expensive new stock; as well, it is likely difficult to build homes in the mar- kets that most need additional new inventory as tracts of open land are scarce. Other headwinds such as firming mortgage rates don't help either, and with the homebuying season giving way to the holiday season, it may be spring before we see much by way of improvement. With Black Friday behind us and the normally-quiet- for-housing holiday season kicking in, it doesn't seem likely that we'll see home sales get much of a lift anytime soon. Mortgage rates have backed off from recent peak levels by about an eighth of a percent- age point which may help a bit, and with the influen- tial 10-year Treasury holding a yield of just about 3% (Continued on page 4) ANNIE WILLIAMS HILL & COMPANY FAX: (415) 202-1686 ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM DRE #01393923 The chart above shows the National month- ly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by http://www.freddiemac.com/. 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-16 07-16 01-17 07-17 01-18 07-18 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $300 $800 $1,300 $1,800 $2,300 0 9 MM J S N 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2018 rereport.com Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco 1,442,500$ 1,874,518$ 208 26 107.1% 12.7% 23.0% -46.0% -9.8% -13.7% -14.0% D1: Northwest 1,812,500$ 2,112,132$ 18 27 106.3% -6.6% 8.5% 0.0% -15.3% -2.1% -25.0% D2: Central West 1,350,000$ 1,361,500$ 35 23 117.3% 4.7% -0.4% -12.5% -2.2% -8.1% 6.1% D3: Southwest 1,100,000$ 1,141,000$ 13 34 107.5% -22.0% -19.9% 0.0% -4.8% -14.0% -23.5% D4: Twin Peaks 1,602,500$ 1,742,369$ 32 20 110.4% 1.1% 7.1% -13.5% -9.2% -5.1% -17.9% D5: Central 2,100,000$ 2,403,233$ 35 25 103.8% -18.0% -7.7% -10.3% -16.0% -12.5% -14.6% D6: Central North 5,750,000$ 5,750,000$ 1 9 119.8% 115.6% 125.8% -75.0% 109.9% 138.6% -66.7% D7: North 4,395,000$ 5,020,409$ 11 38 95.6% 8.2% 12.7% 10.0% -28.5% -40.4% 0.0% D8: Northeast 3,040,000$ 3,040,000$ 2 14 101.4% 15.5% 26.6% -33.3% -81.0% -81.0% 100.0% D9: Central East 1,480,000$ 1,935,095$ 21 36 108.4% -9.5% 10.2% -16.0% -0.9% 19.0% -19.2% D10: Southeast 1,000,000$ 1,045,885$ 40 23 115.6% 13.6% 8.6% -23.1% -12.9% -7.5% -9.1% November Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
  • 3. ANNIE WILLIAMS HILL & COMPANY FAX: (415) 202-1686 ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM DRE #013939230 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 9 A J O 1 0 A J O 1 1 A J O 1 2 A J O 1 3 A J O 1 4 A J O 1 5 A J O 1 6 A J O 1 7 A J O 1 8 A J O San Francisco Homes: Days on Market © 2018 rereport.com -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 0 6 MM J S N 0 7 MM J S N 0 8 MM J S N 0 9 MM J S N 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum Sales Pricing © 2018 rereport.com 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $300 $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 0 9 MM J S N 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2018 rereport.com Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco 1,200,000$ 1,276,616$ 245 36 103.4% 1.5% 0.0% -23.7% -1.8% -5.0% -14.0% D1: Northwest 1,252,000$ 1,282,347$ 15 41 103.7% 5.4% 1.7% 7.1% -7.3% -6.3% -11.8% D2: Central West 675,000$ 1,011,667$ 3 85 109.6% -27.4% 1.5% 0.0% -45.8% -16.2% -70.0% D3: Southwest 930,000$ 942,500$ 4 28 100.7% 7.5% 9.0% 100.0% 18.0% 24.9% 33.3% D4: Twin Peaks 1,495,000$ 1,306,400$ 5 55 102.9% 145.1% 79.3% 25.0% 76.0% 49.9% -37.5% D5: Central 1,532,500$ 1,457,951$ 42 25 108.7% 7.5% -0.6% 2.4% 12.0% 5.8% -6.7% D6: Central North 1,250,000$ 1,201,429$ 21 28 106.0% -3.1% -8.0% -34.4% 29.2% 6.4% -19.2% D7: North 1,315,000$ 1,503,967$ 30 23 104.1% -29.0% -33.9% 7.1% -7.0% -6.0% 50.0% D8: Northeast 1,010,000$ 1,367,248$ 26 56 99.1% -16.9% -3.8% -45.8% -19.2% -9.7% -33.3% D9: Central East 1,070,000$ 1,189,464$ 87 38 101.0% -7.7% 0.9% -12.1% -14.4% -13.0% -15.5% D10: Southeast 609,000$ 675,997$ 6 71 101.2% -30.7% -19.3% 0.0% -19.3% -10.5% 200.0% November Sales Statistics (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
  • 4. Annie Williams Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San, Francisco 94123 late Friday and other indicators also soften- ing, we think there's a good chance of a 3-4 basis point decline in the average 30-year FRM reported by Freddie Mac come next Thursday, even with the first-week-of-the- month slew of top-tier economic data hitting the markets. (Continued from page 2) -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 0 9 MM J S N 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change © 2018 rereport.com -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 0 9 MM J S N 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change © 2018 rereport.com