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The median sales price for attached homes
was up a whopping 32.5% year-over-year. It
was up 2.9% from August.
The average sales price for attached homes
jumped 25.3% year-over-year. It was up 3.8%
from August.
Sales of both detached and attached homes
in San Francisco have been lower than the
year before five months in a row. Not only
have they been lower, they have been
significantly lower.
Home sales were down 62.5% from last
September. There were 122 homes sold last
month. There were 185 condos sold last
month, down 17.4% year-over-year.
The median sales price for single-family, re-
sale homes popped 18.9% year-over-year. It
was down 3.9% from August.
The average sales price jumped 41.4% year-
over-year. It was up 13.8% compared to
August.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what
buyers are paying over what sellers are
asking, was 109.0% for homes and 102.9%
for condos/lofts. Both were lower than the
month before.
Average days on market, or the time from
when a property is listed to when it goes into
contract, was at 28 for homes and 35 for
condos/lofts.
for homes plummeted 11.8 points to –29.2.
Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down
3.6 points to –14.6.
for single-family homes rose 1.5 points to
+5.1. Pricing momentum
for condos/lofts rose 2.9
points to +5.6.
Our momentum statistics
are based on 12-month
moving averages to
eliminate monthly and
seasonal variations.
This is an extraordinarily
tough market for buyers.
It's important to be calm
and realistic. If you don't
know what to do or where
to begin, give me a call
Hill & Company
1880 Lombard Street
San, Francisco 94123
Fax: (415) 202-1686
Cell: (415) 819-2663
AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com
http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com
DRE #01393923
Annie Williams
ANNIE WILLIAMS | ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM | HTTP://WWW.ANNIEWILLIAMSHOMES.COM
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
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20.0
30.0
0
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MMJ SN 0
7
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com
Sep 19 Month % Aug 19 Year % Sep 18
Median Price: 1,540,000$ -3.9% 1,602,500$ 18.9% 1,295,000$
Average Price: 2,091,655$ 13.8% 1,838,712$ 41.4% 1,479,337$
Home Sales: 122 -26.5% 166 -52.5% 257
Sale/List Price Ratio: 109.0% -2.0% 111.2% -1.0% 110.2%
Days on Market: 28 7.7% 26 11.3% 25
(Condominiums)
Sep 19 Month % Aug 19 Year % Sep 18
Median Price: 1,325,000$ 2.9% 1,288,000$ 32.5% 1,000,000$
Average Price: 1,448,292$ 3.9% 1,393,459$ 25.3% 1,156,163$
Home Sales: 185 -8.0% 201 -17.4% 224
Sale/List Price Ratio: 104.0% -0.8% 104.9% -1.6% 105.8%
Days on Market: 35 6.1% 33 25.2% 28
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Sep. 27, 2019 -- Just a week after mortgage rates
staged their biggest increase in several years, fresh
concerns about the U.S. political climate spooked
investors, and at least some money sloshed out of
riskier investments and back in to the relative safety
of sovereign bonds. This flare of demand helped
push down yields and mortgage rates, with the
benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage taking back
a bit more than half of the prior week's increase.
It's not uncommon to see rather more volatility in
markets once we pass the Labor Day holiday, when
quiet summer markets give way to a quickened pace
of activity. Last year, for example, a very flat summer
pattern for rates gave way to a several-week spike
that saw rates kick more than a third of a percentage
point higher. We may have been on a similar course,
but the announcement this week that House Demo-
crats will be opening a "formal" impeachment inquiry
into President Trump's actions injected a new degree
of uncertainty into the climate, and the corresponding
measure of caution expressed by investors took the
legs out from under the recent increase in yields and
rates.
Last week's flare in mortgage rates (on top of a
smaller one the week prior) had the expected effect
on mortgage applications. In the week ending Sep-
tember 20, the Mortgage Bankers Association report-
ed a 10.1% decline in applications for new mortgag-
es, with a 3.1% decline in purchase-money apps
accompanied by an unsurprising 15.2% decline in
those for refinances. The change to the first group
broke a 3-week string of gains; the second group has
only two small positive weeks since a huge upward
spike in early August. Since then, the trends for refi-
nancing have largely been diminishing despite still-
favorable mortgage rates.
There is no doubt that low mortgage rates have in-
creased interest in the housing market. The National
Association of Realtors reported that their Pending
Home Sales Index moved 1.6% higher in August, an
advance indication that existing home sales may
continue a mild upward pattern, but limited invento-
ries of homes available to buy will likely continue to
be a tempering factor.
However, nothing to buy in the existing home market,
rising incomes and more means improving times for
sales in the new construction market, where sales of
new homes rose 7.1% in August to a 713,000 annual
pace. July's initial figure was also revised higher, so
this uptrend is even enhanced to a degree. Stock-
piles of unsold new homes had gotten a little bloated
earlier this year, rising as high as 6.7 months of sup-
ply, but solid sales since May driven by builder price
cutting has trimmed that back to just 5.5 months in
(Continued on page 4)
ANNIE WILLIAMS
HILL & COMPANY
FAX: (415) 202-1686
ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM
DRE #01393923
The chart above shows the National month-
ly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compiled by http://www.freddiemac.com/.
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
01-10
07-10
01-11
07-11
01-12
07-12
01-13
07-13
01-14
07-14
01-15
07-15
01-16
07-16
01-17
07-17
01-18
07-18
01-19
07-19
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,540,000 $2,091,655 122 28 109.0% 18.9% 41.4% -52.5% -3.9% 13.8% -26.5%
D1: Northwest $2,100,000 $2,279,714 7 27 101.3% -20.8% -16.6% -36.4% -2.3% -3.4% -12.5%
D2: Central West $1,377,500 $1,450,267 26 28 114.9% -4.0% -2.8% -27.8% -13.0% -13.2% -18.8%
D3: Southwest $1,300,000 $1,296,455 11 15 116.8% 6.1% -2.4% 0.0% 5.7% -6.3% -26.7%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,680,000 $1,760,885 13 22 112.9% -5.2% -5.3% -35.0% 3.4% -0.7% -31.6%
D5: Central $1,255,000 $1,353,357 14 22 107.8% 56.1% 44.5% 28.6% 21.6% 35.7% -25.0%
D6: Central North $1,125,000 $1,125,000 1 12 102.3% -25.7% -42.9% -66.7% -60.9% -65.3% -66.7%
D7: North $4,100,000 $4,581,750 12 48 102.2% -33.9% -27.7% 140.0% 12.3% 12.4% 140.0%
D8: Northeast $805,000 $805,000 1 8 100.8% -86.0% -86.0% 0.0% -76.1% -76.1% -50.0%
D9: Central East $1,600,000 $2,212,143 7 39 107.9% 3.2% 31.9% -41.7% -0.3% 24.9% -63.2%
D10: Southeast $929,000 $956,344 22 40 105.3% 14.4% 14.7% -21.2% -7.0% -2.5% -33.3%
September Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
0
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$300
$800
$1,300
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$2,300
1
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com
ANNIE WILLIAMS
HILL & COMPANY
FAX: (415) 202-1686
ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM
DRE #0139392380.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
120.0%
1
0
A J O 1
1
A J O 1
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A J O 1
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A J
San Francisco Homes: Sales Price to List Price Ratio
© 2019 rereport.com
-50.0
-40.0
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-20.0
-10.0
0.0
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum
Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com
0
50
100
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350
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,325,000 $1,448,292 185 35 104.0% 32.5% 25.3% -17.4% 2.9% 3.9% -8.0%
D1: Northwest $1,037,500 $1,086,000 6 37 107.6% -35.2% -26.4% -33.3% -28.4% -27.1% -53.8%
D2: Central West $1,257,500 $1,206,250 4 22 122.4% 5.7% 1.4% 100.0% 39.7% 39.0% -20.0%
D3: Southwest $1,325,000 $1,283,000 3 95 101.8% 89.3% 83.3% 200.0% -0.1% 6.5% 0.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $740,250 $740,250 2 10 109.8% -46.4% -46.4% 0.0% -33.6% -32.9% -50.0%
D5: Central $1,580,000 $1,579,720 25 23 111.9% 1.9% 9.9% 0.0% 8.6% -0.9% -3.8%
D6: Central North $1,265,000 $1,351,230 20 34 111.0% 8.4% 5.6% 42.9% -1.6% 0.6% -9.1%
D7: North $1,700,000 $2,069,464 29 19 101.2% 31.3% 52.4% 16.0% -6.8% 6.7% 7.4%
D8: Northeast $1,328,000 $1,463,690 21 64 101.3% 4.2% 0.8% -22.2% 2.2% -6.4% 0.0%
D9: Central East $1,285,000 $1,314,023 66 33 100.8% 24.8% 14.1% -4.3% 19.8% 7.7% -1.5%
D10: Southeast $750,000 $758,333 3 62 103.0% -1.6% 1.2% -50.0% 2.2% 8.3% -50.0%
September Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
Annie Williams
Hill & Company
1880 Lombard Street
San, Francisco 94123
September. Thinning inventories amid solid de-
mand usually means rising prices, and rise they
did, with the median price of a new home sold ris-
ing by 8.8% compared to those sold in July. As
well, builders need to get busy again, as the
324,000 units built and ready to be sold was actual-
ly the smallest number since September 2018.
(Continued from page 2)
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1
0
MM JS N 1
1
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MMJ S
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice
Change
© 2019 rereport.com
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
1
0
MM J SN 1
1
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MMJ S
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price
Change
© 2019 rereport.com

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Annie Williams Real Estate Report - October 2019

  • 1. and let's discuss your situation and your options. The median sales price for attached homes was up a whopping 32.5% year-over-year. It was up 2.9% from August. The average sales price for attached homes jumped 25.3% year-over-year. It was up 3.8% from August. Sales of both detached and attached homes in San Francisco have been lower than the year before five months in a row. Not only have they been lower, they have been significantly lower. Home sales were down 62.5% from last September. There were 122 homes sold last month. There were 185 condos sold last month, down 17.4% year-over-year. The median sales price for single-family, re- sale homes popped 18.9% year-over-year. It was down 3.9% from August. The average sales price jumped 41.4% year- over-year. It was up 13.8% compared to August. The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, was 109.0% for homes and 102.9% for condos/lofts. Both were lower than the month before. Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was at 28 for homes and 35 for condos/lofts. for homes plummeted 11.8 points to –29.2. Sales momentum for condos/lofts was down 3.6 points to –14.6. for single-family homes rose 1.5 points to +5.1. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 2.9 points to +5.6. Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San, Francisco 94123 Fax: (415) 202-1686 Cell: (415) 819-2663 AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com DRE #01393923 Annie Williams ANNIE WILLIAMS | ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM | HTTP://WWW.ANNIEWILLIAMSHOMES.COM -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 0 6 MMJ SN 0 7 MMJ S N0 8 MM JS N0 9 MM JS N1 0 MM JS N1 1 MMJ SN 1 2 MMJ SN 1 3 MMJ SN 1 4 MM JS N1 5 MM JS N1 6 MM JS N1 7 MM JS N 1 8 MMJ SN 1 9 MMJ S San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com Sep 19 Month % Aug 19 Year % Sep 18 Median Price: 1,540,000$ -3.9% 1,602,500$ 18.9% 1,295,000$ Average Price: 2,091,655$ 13.8% 1,838,712$ 41.4% 1,479,337$ Home Sales: 122 -26.5% 166 -52.5% 257 Sale/List Price Ratio: 109.0% -2.0% 111.2% -1.0% 110.2% Days on Market: 28 7.7% 26 11.3% 25 (Condominiums) Sep 19 Month % Aug 19 Year % Sep 18 Median Price: 1,325,000$ 2.9% 1,288,000$ 32.5% 1,000,000$ Average Price: 1,448,292$ 3.9% 1,393,459$ 25.3% 1,156,163$ Home Sales: 185 -8.0% 201 -17.4% 224 Sale/List Price Ratio: 104.0% -0.8% 104.9% -1.6% 105.8% Days on Market: 35 6.1% 33 25.2% 28 Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes)
  • 2. Sep. 27, 2019 -- Just a week after mortgage rates staged their biggest increase in several years, fresh concerns about the U.S. political climate spooked investors, and at least some money sloshed out of riskier investments and back in to the relative safety of sovereign bonds. This flare of demand helped push down yields and mortgage rates, with the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage taking back a bit more than half of the prior week's increase. It's not uncommon to see rather more volatility in markets once we pass the Labor Day holiday, when quiet summer markets give way to a quickened pace of activity. Last year, for example, a very flat summer pattern for rates gave way to a several-week spike that saw rates kick more than a third of a percentage point higher. We may have been on a similar course, but the announcement this week that House Demo- crats will be opening a "formal" impeachment inquiry into President Trump's actions injected a new degree of uncertainty into the climate, and the corresponding measure of caution expressed by investors took the legs out from under the recent increase in yields and rates. Last week's flare in mortgage rates (on top of a smaller one the week prior) had the expected effect on mortgage applications. In the week ending Sep- tember 20, the Mortgage Bankers Association report- ed a 10.1% decline in applications for new mortgag- es, with a 3.1% decline in purchase-money apps accompanied by an unsurprising 15.2% decline in those for refinances. The change to the first group broke a 3-week string of gains; the second group has only two small positive weeks since a huge upward spike in early August. Since then, the trends for refi- nancing have largely been diminishing despite still- favorable mortgage rates. There is no doubt that low mortgage rates have in- creased interest in the housing market. The National Association of Realtors reported that their Pending Home Sales Index moved 1.6% higher in August, an advance indication that existing home sales may continue a mild upward pattern, but limited invento- ries of homes available to buy will likely continue to be a tempering factor. However, nothing to buy in the existing home market, rising incomes and more means improving times for sales in the new construction market, where sales of new homes rose 7.1% in August to a 713,000 annual pace. July's initial figure was also revised higher, so this uptrend is even enhanced to a degree. Stock- piles of unsold new homes had gotten a little bloated earlier this year, rising as high as 6.7 months of sup- ply, but solid sales since May driven by builder price cutting has trimmed that back to just 5.5 months in (Continued on page 4) ANNIE WILLIAMS HILL & COMPANY FAX: (415) 202-1686 ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM DRE #01393923 The chart above shows the National month- ly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by http://www.freddiemac.com/. 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-16 07-16 01-17 07-17 01-18 07-18 01-19 07-19 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco $1,540,000 $2,091,655 122 28 109.0% 18.9% 41.4% -52.5% -3.9% 13.8% -26.5% D1: Northwest $2,100,000 $2,279,714 7 27 101.3% -20.8% -16.6% -36.4% -2.3% -3.4% -12.5% D2: Central West $1,377,500 $1,450,267 26 28 114.9% -4.0% -2.8% -27.8% -13.0% -13.2% -18.8% D3: Southwest $1,300,000 $1,296,455 11 15 116.8% 6.1% -2.4% 0.0% 5.7% -6.3% -26.7% D4: Twin Peaks $1,680,000 $1,760,885 13 22 112.9% -5.2% -5.3% -35.0% 3.4% -0.7% -31.6% D5: Central $1,255,000 $1,353,357 14 22 107.8% 56.1% 44.5% 28.6% 21.6% 35.7% -25.0% D6: Central North $1,125,000 $1,125,000 1 12 102.3% -25.7% -42.9% -66.7% -60.9% -65.3% -66.7% D7: North $4,100,000 $4,581,750 12 48 102.2% -33.9% -27.7% 140.0% 12.3% 12.4% 140.0% D8: Northeast $805,000 $805,000 1 8 100.8% -86.0% -86.0% 0.0% -76.1% -76.1% -50.0% D9: Central East $1,600,000 $2,212,143 7 39 107.9% 3.2% 31.9% -41.7% -0.3% 24.9% -63.2% D10: Southeast $929,000 $956,344 22 40 105.3% 14.4% 14.7% -21.2% -7.0% -2.5% -33.3% September Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $300 $800 $1,300 $1,800 $2,300 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N 1 9 MM J S San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com
  • 3. ANNIE WILLIAMS HILL & COMPANY FAX: (415) 202-1686 ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM DRE #0139392380.0% 85.0% 90.0% 95.0% 100.0% 105.0% 110.0% 115.0% 120.0% 1 0 A J O 1 1 A J O 1 2 A J O 1 3 A J O 1 4 A J O 1 5 A J O 1 6 A J O 1 7 A J O 1 8 A J O 1 9 A J San Francisco Homes: Sales Price to List Price Ratio © 2019 rereport.com -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 0 6 MM J SN 0 7 MM JS N 0 8 MMJ S N 0 9 MM J S N 1 0 MM J S N1 1 MM J SN 1 2 MM JS N 1 3 MMJ S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N1 6 MM J SN 1 7 MM JS N 1 8 MM J S N 1 9 MM J S San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 $300 $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N 1 9 MM J S San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco $1,325,000 $1,448,292 185 35 104.0% 32.5% 25.3% -17.4% 2.9% 3.9% -8.0% D1: Northwest $1,037,500 $1,086,000 6 37 107.6% -35.2% -26.4% -33.3% -28.4% -27.1% -53.8% D2: Central West $1,257,500 $1,206,250 4 22 122.4% 5.7% 1.4% 100.0% 39.7% 39.0% -20.0% D3: Southwest $1,325,000 $1,283,000 3 95 101.8% 89.3% 83.3% 200.0% -0.1% 6.5% 0.0% D4: Twin Peaks $740,250 $740,250 2 10 109.8% -46.4% -46.4% 0.0% -33.6% -32.9% -50.0% D5: Central $1,580,000 $1,579,720 25 23 111.9% 1.9% 9.9% 0.0% 8.6% -0.9% -3.8% D6: Central North $1,265,000 $1,351,230 20 34 111.0% 8.4% 5.6% 42.9% -1.6% 0.6% -9.1% D7: North $1,700,000 $2,069,464 29 19 101.2% 31.3% 52.4% 16.0% -6.8% 6.7% 7.4% D8: Northeast $1,328,000 $1,463,690 21 64 101.3% 4.2% 0.8% -22.2% 2.2% -6.4% 0.0% D9: Central East $1,285,000 $1,314,023 66 33 100.8% 24.8% 14.1% -4.3% 19.8% 7.7% -1.5% D10: Southeast $750,000 $758,333 3 62 103.0% -1.6% 1.2% -50.0% 2.2% 8.3% -50.0% September Sales Statistics (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
  • 4. Annie Williams Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San, Francisco 94123 September. Thinning inventories amid solid de- mand usually means rising prices, and rise they did, with the median price of a new home sold ris- ing by 8.8% compared to those sold in July. As well, builders need to get busy again, as the 324,000 units built and ready to be sold was actual- ly the smallest number since September 2018. (Continued from page 2) -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 1 0 MM JS N 1 1 MM JS N 1 2 MM JS N 1 3 MM JS N 1 4 MM JS N 1 5 MM JS N 1 6 MMJ S N1 7 MMJ S N1 8 MMJ S N1 9 MMJ S San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change © 2019 rereport.com -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 1 0 MM J SN 1 1 MM J SN 1 2 MM J SN 1 3 MM J SN 1 4 MM J SN 1 5 MM J SN 1 6 MM J S N1 7 MMJ S N1 8 MMJ S N1 9 MMJ S San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change © 2019 rereport.com