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It's important to be calm and realistic. If you
don't know what to do or where to begin, give
me a call and let's discuss your situation and
your options.
Sales prices for condos/townhomes set a new
high for the second month in a row.
The median sales price for condos/townhomes
was up 12.8% year-over-year. It was up 3.8%
from September.
The average sales price for attached homes
gained 10.6% year-over-year. It was up 2.7%
from September.
Sales of condos/townhomes have been lower
than the year before six months in a row. Not
only have they been lower, they have been
significantly lower. There were 211 condos
sold last month, down 27.7% year-over-year.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes surged
in October. They were double the number of
sales in September. There were 244 homes
sold last month.
The median sales price for single-family, re-
sale homes rose 3.1% year-over-year. It was
up 7.1% from September.
The average sales price fell 11.1% year-
over-year. It was down 7.8% compared to
September.
The sales price to list price ratio, or what
buyers are paying over what sellers are
asking, was 111.1% for homes and 105.6%
for condos/townhomes. Both were higher than
the month before.
Average days on market, or the time from
when a property is listed to when it goes into
contract, was at 22 for homes and 25 for
condos/lofts.
for homes dropped 0.7 of a point to –29.9.
Sales momentum for condos/townhomes was
down 3 points to –17.6.
for single-family homes
rose 0.1 of a point to
+5.2. Pricing momentum
for condos/townhomes
rose 0.5 of a point to
+6.1.
Our momentum statistics
are based on 12-month
moving averages to
eliminate monthly and
seasonal variations.
This is an extraordinarily
tough market for buyers.
Hill & Company
1880 Lombard Street
San, Francisco 94123
Fax: (415) 202-1686
Cell: (415) 819-2663
AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com
http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com
DRE #01393923
Annie Williams
ANNIE WILLIAMS | ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM | HTTP://WWW.ANNIEWILLIAMSHOMES.COM
-40.0
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com
Oct 19 Month % Sep 19 Year % Oct 18
Median Price: 1,650,000$ 7.1% 1,540,000$ 3.1% 1,600,000$
Average Price: 1,928,523$ -7.8% 2,091,655$ -11.1% 2,168,225$
Home Sales: 244 100.0% 122 0.0% 244
Sale/List Price Ratio: 111.1% 1.9% 109.0% 2.2% 108.6%
Days on Market: 22 -21.4% 28 -9.7% 24
(Condominiums)
Oct 19 Month % Sep 19 Year % Oct 18
Median Price: 1,375,000$ 3.8% 1,325,000$ 12.8% 1,218,500$
Average Price: 1,487,942$ 2.7% 1,448,292$ 10.6% 1,345,345$
Home Sales: 211 14.1% 185 -27.7% 292
Sale/List Price Ratio: 105.6% 1.5% 104.0% -1.0% 106.7%
Days on Market: 25 -28.6% 35 -6.7% 27
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Nov. 1, 2019 -- Citing again "the implications of global
developments for the economic outlook as well as
muted inflation pressures", and that "uncertainties
about this outlook" for continued modest economic
growth remain, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates
for a third time in three months, lowering the federal
funds target rate to 1.5% from 1.75%, a level last
seen back in March 2018.
While this change as widely expected by markets,
the Fed has been struggling with exactly how to tell
markets its future intentions for monetary policy with-
out specifically tipping its hand. It did so in two ways:
First, in the statement that accompanied the close of
Wednesday's meeting, it removed the characteriza-
tion that the central bank would "act as appropriate to
sustain the expansion" in favor of a pledge that is
would " monitor the implications of incoming infor-
mation for the economic outlook as it assesses the
appropriate path of the target range for the federal
funds rate." As such, they committed to no specific
policy action, but will dig through the data and deter-
mine what needs to be done.
Second, the Fed wanted to allay any market fear or
reaction that the next move for policy (whenever it
may come) would be likely to be an increase. This
was handled in the press conference after the meet-
ing, where Fed Chair Jay Powell noted that [the
FOMC] "would need to see a really significant move
up in inflation that’s persistent before we would con-
sider raising rates to address inflation concerns."
With no specific plans to cut rates again unless eco-
nomic conditions significantly worsen and none to
raise rates until inflation is persistently strong it would
seem that we may be in for an extended pause by
the Fed, who would likely prefer to move to the side-
lines at this point.
We learned last week that sales of both new and
existing homes tailed a little bit in September, tem-
pered by rising prices, limited inventories and other
considerations. Things may pick up a little bit as we
close the year, though, as the National Association of
Realtors reported that their Pending Home Sales
Index rose by 1.5% in October to land at its high for
the year to date.
As sales of existing homes are tallied in the month
the title changes hands -- a period typically 30- to 60
days from the signing of a sales contract -- we might
expect to see firming sales of existing homes for
November and/or December. To that end, the Mort-
gage Bankers Association reported that while appli-
cations for mortgages rose by just 0.6% overall in the
week ending October 25, there was a 2.3% gain in
those for purchase money mortgages (the first in-
(Continued on page 4)
ANNIE WILLIAMS
HILL & COMPANY
FAX: (415) 202-1686
ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM
DRE #01393923
The chart above shows the National month-
ly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compiled by http://www.freddiemac.com/.
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
01-10
07-10
01-11
07-11
01-12
07-12
01-13
07-13
01-14
07-14
01-15
07-15
01-16
07-16
01-17
07-17
01-18
07-18
01-19
07-19
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,650,000 $1,928,523 244 22 111.1% 3.1% -11.1% 0.0% 7.1% -7.8% 100.0%
D1: Northwest $2,181,250 $2,281,075 20 21 106.4% 1.9% 5.7% -16.7% 3.9% 0.1% 185.7%
D2: Central West $1,460,000 $1,567,978 46 18 116.0% 5.8% 5.8% 39.4% 6.0% 8.1% 76.9%
D3: Southwest $1,306,500 $1,525,861 8 23 117.8% 13.0% 15.0% -52.9% 0.5% 17.7% -27.3%
D4: Twin Peaks $1,835,500 $1,846,176 34 20 110.8% 4.0% 0.5% -12.8% 9.3% 4.8% 161.5%
D5: Central $2,495,000 $2,737,514 37 17 107.4% -0.2% -0.3% -9.8% -19.5% -18.3% 105.6%
D6: Central North $3,137,500 $3,137,500 2 28 103.8% 14.5% 30.2% -33.3% 178.9% 178.9% 100.0%
D7: North $5,148,500 $5,137,750 8 29 103.3% -16.3% -39.0% -27.3% 25.6% 12.1% -33.3%
D8: Northeast $1,950,000 $1,950,000 2 118 104.1% -52.7% -52.7% 0.0% 142.2% 142.2% 100.0%
D9: Central East $1,775,000 $1,939,824 34 20 115.4% 18.3% 19.1% 25.9% 10.9% -12.3% 385.7%
D10: Southeast $1,100,000 $1,119,155 53 25 117.3% -4.3% -1.6% 17.8% -3.8% -8.1% 103.8%
October Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
0
50
100
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200
250
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400
$300
$800
$1,300
$1,800
$2,300
1
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com
ANNIE WILLIAMS
HILL & COMPANY
FAX: (415) 202-1686
ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM
DRE #0139392380.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
120.0%
1
0
A J O 1
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Price to List Price Ratio
© 2019 rereport.com
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum
Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com
0
50
100
150
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250
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350
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1,375,000 $1,487,942 211 25 105.6% 12.8% 10.6% -27.7% 3.8% 2.7% 14.1%
D1: Northwest $1,250,500 $1,452,411 14 21 111.0% -7.4% 6.1% -17.6% 20.5% 33.7% 133.3%
D2: Central West $1,320,000 $1,273,667 5 19 114.8% 3.1% 4.0% -54.5% 5.0% 5.6% 25.0%
D3: Southwest $720,000 $750,000 3 33 107.8% -8.6% -0.6% 0.0% -45.7% -41.5% 0.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $725,000 $889,286 7 22 106.9% -14.7% 2.0% -12.5% -2.1% 20.1% 250.0%
D5: Central $1,650,000 $1,662,713 48 14 110.2% 20.3% 19.4% 4.3% 4.4% 5.3% 92.0%
D6: Central North $1,275,000 $1,269,643 14 20 110.3% 30.8% 12.8% -48.1% 0.8% -6.0% -30.0%
D7: North $1,538,000 $1,830,017 29 22 104.4% 8.8% 14.3% 45.0% -9.5% -11.6% 0.0%
D8: Northeast $1,385,000 $1,655,037 27 26 103.5% 10.8% 9.3% -30.8% 4.3% 13.1% 28.6%
D9: Central East $1,174,000 $1,340,084 60 38 100.7% -6.1% -2.5% -42.9% -8.6% 2.0% -9.1%
D10: Southeast $742,000 $742,000 1 105 97.0% -12.7% -8.6% -66.7% -1.1% -2.2% -66.7%
October Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
Annie Williams
Hill & Company
1880 Lombard Street
San, Francisco 94123
crease since September) while applications for
refinancing slid by 0.5 percent.
While there is plenty more new data on tap for in-
vestors to consider, the indication for mortgage
rates as we close this week is one of decline. If it
holds, we think there's a chance for a 6-8 basis
point decline in the offered rate for a conforming
30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac next
Thursday, dropping us back closer to the middle of
the summer-fall range so far.
(Continued from page 2)
-30.0%
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10.0%
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70.0%
1
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice
Change
© 2019 rereport.com
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
1
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MM J S
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price
Change
© 2019 rereport.com

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Annie Williams Real Estate Report - November 2019

  • 1. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options. Sales prices for condos/townhomes set a new high for the second month in a row. The median sales price for condos/townhomes was up 12.8% year-over-year. It was up 3.8% from September. The average sales price for attached homes gained 10.6% year-over-year. It was up 2.7% from September. Sales of condos/townhomes have been lower than the year before six months in a row. Not only have they been lower, they have been significantly lower. There were 211 condos sold last month, down 27.7% year-over-year. Sales of single-family, re-sale homes surged in October. They were double the number of sales in September. There were 244 homes sold last month. The median sales price for single-family, re- sale homes rose 3.1% year-over-year. It was up 7.1% from September. The average sales price fell 11.1% year- over-year. It was down 7.8% compared to September. The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, was 111.1% for homes and 105.6% for condos/townhomes. Both were higher than the month before. Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was at 22 for homes and 25 for condos/lofts. for homes dropped 0.7 of a point to –29.9. Sales momentum for condos/townhomes was down 3 points to –17.6. for single-family homes rose 0.1 of a point to +5.2. Pricing momentum for condos/townhomes rose 0.5 of a point to +6.1. Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San, Francisco 94123 Fax: (415) 202-1686 Cell: (415) 819-2663 AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com DRE #01393923 Annie Williams ANNIE WILLIAMS | ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM | HTTP://WWW.ANNIEWILLIAMSHOMES.COM -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 0 6 MMJ SN 0 7 MMJ SN0 8 MM JS N0 9 MM JS N1 0 MM JS N1 1 MM JS N1 2 MMJ SN 1 3 MMJ SN 1 4 MMJ SN 1 5 MMJ SN 1 6 MM JS N1 7 MM JS N1 8 MM JS N1 9 MM JS San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com Oct 19 Month % Sep 19 Year % Oct 18 Median Price: 1,650,000$ 7.1% 1,540,000$ 3.1% 1,600,000$ Average Price: 1,928,523$ -7.8% 2,091,655$ -11.1% 2,168,225$ Home Sales: 244 100.0% 122 0.0% 244 Sale/List Price Ratio: 111.1% 1.9% 109.0% 2.2% 108.6% Days on Market: 22 -21.4% 28 -9.7% 24 (Condominiums) Oct 19 Month % Sep 19 Year % Oct 18 Median Price: 1,375,000$ 3.8% 1,325,000$ 12.8% 1,218,500$ Average Price: 1,487,942$ 2.7% 1,448,292$ 10.6% 1,345,345$ Home Sales: 211 14.1% 185 -27.7% 292 Sale/List Price Ratio: 105.6% 1.5% 104.0% -1.0% 106.7% Days on Market: 25 -28.6% 35 -6.7% 27 Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes)
  • 2. Nov. 1, 2019 -- Citing again "the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures", and that "uncertainties about this outlook" for continued modest economic growth remain, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a third time in three months, lowering the federal funds target rate to 1.5% from 1.75%, a level last seen back in March 2018. While this change as widely expected by markets, the Fed has been struggling with exactly how to tell markets its future intentions for monetary policy with- out specifically tipping its hand. It did so in two ways: First, in the statement that accompanied the close of Wednesday's meeting, it removed the characteriza- tion that the central bank would "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion" in favor of a pledge that is would " monitor the implications of incoming infor- mation for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate." As such, they committed to no specific policy action, but will dig through the data and deter- mine what needs to be done. Second, the Fed wanted to allay any market fear or reaction that the next move for policy (whenever it may come) would be likely to be an increase. This was handled in the press conference after the meet- ing, where Fed Chair Jay Powell noted that [the FOMC] "would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we would con- sider raising rates to address inflation concerns." With no specific plans to cut rates again unless eco- nomic conditions significantly worsen and none to raise rates until inflation is persistently strong it would seem that we may be in for an extended pause by the Fed, who would likely prefer to move to the side- lines at this point. We learned last week that sales of both new and existing homes tailed a little bit in September, tem- pered by rising prices, limited inventories and other considerations. Things may pick up a little bit as we close the year, though, as the National Association of Realtors reported that their Pending Home Sales Index rose by 1.5% in October to land at its high for the year to date. As sales of existing homes are tallied in the month the title changes hands -- a period typically 30- to 60 days from the signing of a sales contract -- we might expect to see firming sales of existing homes for November and/or December. To that end, the Mort- gage Bankers Association reported that while appli- cations for mortgages rose by just 0.6% overall in the week ending October 25, there was a 2.3% gain in those for purchase money mortgages (the first in- (Continued on page 4) ANNIE WILLIAMS HILL & COMPANY FAX: (415) 202-1686 ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM DRE #01393923 The chart above shows the National month- ly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by http://www.freddiemac.com/. 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-16 07-16 01-17 07-17 01-18 07-18 01-19 07-19 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco $1,650,000 $1,928,523 244 22 111.1% 3.1% -11.1% 0.0% 7.1% -7.8% 100.0% D1: Northwest $2,181,250 $2,281,075 20 21 106.4% 1.9% 5.7% -16.7% 3.9% 0.1% 185.7% D2: Central West $1,460,000 $1,567,978 46 18 116.0% 5.8% 5.8% 39.4% 6.0% 8.1% 76.9% D3: Southwest $1,306,500 $1,525,861 8 23 117.8% 13.0% 15.0% -52.9% 0.5% 17.7% -27.3% D4: Twin Peaks $1,835,500 $1,846,176 34 20 110.8% 4.0% 0.5% -12.8% 9.3% 4.8% 161.5% D5: Central $2,495,000 $2,737,514 37 17 107.4% -0.2% -0.3% -9.8% -19.5% -18.3% 105.6% D6: Central North $3,137,500 $3,137,500 2 28 103.8% 14.5% 30.2% -33.3% 178.9% 178.9% 100.0% D7: North $5,148,500 $5,137,750 8 29 103.3% -16.3% -39.0% -27.3% 25.6% 12.1% -33.3% D8: Northeast $1,950,000 $1,950,000 2 118 104.1% -52.7% -52.7% 0.0% 142.2% 142.2% 100.0% D9: Central East $1,775,000 $1,939,824 34 20 115.4% 18.3% 19.1% 25.9% 10.9% -12.3% 385.7% D10: Southeast $1,100,000 $1,119,155 53 25 117.3% -4.3% -1.6% 17.8% -3.8% -8.1% 103.8% October Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $300 $800 $1,300 $1,800 $2,300 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N 1 9 MM J S San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com
  • 3. ANNIE WILLIAMS HILL & COMPANY FAX: (415) 202-1686 ANNIEWILLIAMSSF@GMAIL.COM DRE #0139392380.0% 85.0% 90.0% 95.0% 100.0% 105.0% 110.0% 115.0% 120.0% 1 0 A J O 1 1 A J O 1 2 A J O 1 3 A J O 1 4 A J O 1 5 A J O 1 6 A J O 1 7 A J O 1 8 A J O 1 9 A J O San Francisco Homes: Sales Price to List Price Ratio © 2019 rereport.com -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 0 6 MM JS N 0 7 MM J S N0 8 MM JS N 0 9 MM J S N1 0 MM JS N 1 1 MM J S N1 2 MM JS N 1 3 MM J S N1 4 MM JS N 1 5 MM J S N1 6 MM JS N 1 7 MM J S N1 8 MM JS N 1 9 MMJ S San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum Sales Pricing © 2019 rereport.com 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 $300 $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 MM J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 MM J S N 1 8 MM J S N 1 9 MM J S San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2019 rereport.com Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco $1,375,000 $1,487,942 211 25 105.6% 12.8% 10.6% -27.7% 3.8% 2.7% 14.1% D1: Northwest $1,250,500 $1,452,411 14 21 111.0% -7.4% 6.1% -17.6% 20.5% 33.7% 133.3% D2: Central West $1,320,000 $1,273,667 5 19 114.8% 3.1% 4.0% -54.5% 5.0% 5.6% 25.0% D3: Southwest $720,000 $750,000 3 33 107.8% -8.6% -0.6% 0.0% -45.7% -41.5% 0.0% D4: Twin Peaks $725,000 $889,286 7 22 106.9% -14.7% 2.0% -12.5% -2.1% 20.1% 250.0% D5: Central $1,650,000 $1,662,713 48 14 110.2% 20.3% 19.4% 4.3% 4.4% 5.3% 92.0% D6: Central North $1,275,000 $1,269,643 14 20 110.3% 30.8% 12.8% -48.1% 0.8% -6.0% -30.0% D7: North $1,538,000 $1,830,017 29 22 104.4% 8.8% 14.3% 45.0% -9.5% -11.6% 0.0% D8: Northeast $1,385,000 $1,655,037 27 26 103.5% 10.8% 9.3% -30.8% 4.3% 13.1% 28.6% D9: Central East $1,174,000 $1,340,084 60 38 100.7% -6.1% -2.5% -42.9% -8.6% 2.0% -9.1% D10: Southeast $742,000 $742,000 1 105 97.0% -12.7% -8.6% -66.7% -1.1% -2.2% -66.7% October Sales Statistics (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
  • 4. Annie Williams Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San, Francisco 94123 crease since September) while applications for refinancing slid by 0.5 percent. While there is plenty more new data on tap for in- vestors to consider, the indication for mortgage rates as we close this week is one of decline. If it holds, we think there's a chance for a 6-8 basis point decline in the offered rate for a conforming 30-year FRM as reported by Freddie Mac next Thursday, dropping us back closer to the middle of the summer-fall range so far. (Continued from page 2) -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 1 0 MM J SN 1 1 MM J SN 1 2 MM J SN 1 3 MM J SN 1 4 MM J SN 1 5 MM J SN 1 6 MM J SN 1 7 MM J SN 1 8 MM J SN 1 9 MM J S San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change © 2019 rereport.com -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 1 0 MM J SN 1 1 MM J SN 1 2 MM J SN 1 3 MM J SN 1 4 MM J SN 1 5 MM J SN 1 6 MM J SN 1 7 MM J SN 1 8 MM J SN 1 9 MM J S San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change © 2019 rereport.com