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The Real Estate Report
Prices for single-family, re-sale homes were down,
year-over-year, for the fourth month in a row in
February.
After reaching record highs last October, due to a
slew of $10MM+ sales, both the median and
average price for homes in San Francisco have
cooled off considerably. The median price for
homes in February was down 21.6% from last year,
while the average price dropped 13.9%.
Loft/condo prices were up slightly with the median
price rising 2.9% and the average gaining 5.4%.
Home sales popped for the fourth month in a row,
rising 64.7%. Loft/condo sales, on the other hand,
were off 3.6%.
The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100%
for both homes and loft/condos: 109.8% for homes
and 103.1% for loft/townhomes.
FEBRUARY SALES STATISTICS
Sales momentum…
for homes jumped 5.5 points to +15.7. Sales
momentum for condos/townhomes fell 0.4 of a
point to +0.8.
Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes fell 4.7 points to -3.0,
putting it in negative territory for the first time since
July 2012. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose
0.3 0f a point to -3.4.
Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month
moving averages to eliminate monthly and
seasonal variations.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers.
It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't
know what to do or where to begin, give me a call
and let's discuss your situation and your options.
Hill & Company
1880 Lombard Street
San, Francisco 94123
Fax: (415) 202-1686
Cell: (415) 819-2663
AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com
http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com
DRE #01393923
Annie Williams
Annie Williams | Fax: (415) 202-1686 | AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com
Home Prices Down, Loft/Condo Prices Up
Local Market Trends March/April 2017San Francisco
Feb 17 Jan 17 Feb 16
Home Sales: 168 179 102
Median Price: 1,090,000$ 1,015,000$ 1,390,000$
Average Price: 1,387,037$ 1,301,460$ 1,611,354$
SP/LP: 109.8% 104.3% 108.8%
Days on Market: 43 50 31
Feb 17 Jan 17 Feb 16
Condo Sales: 162 157 168
Median Price: 1,129,000$ 935,000$ 1,097,500$
Average Price: 1,275,382$ 1,107,383$ 1,209,993$
SP/LP: 103.1% 101.0% 105.3%
Days on Market: 39 58 35
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0
6
MM J S N 0
7
MM J S N 0
8
MM J S N 0
9
M M J S N 1
0
MM J S N 1
1
MM J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
MM J S N 1
4
MM J S N 1
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7
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2017 rereport.com
Feb. 28, 2017 -- Recent reports indicate that con-
sumer price inflation is rising, reigniting the reflation
debate—whether or not we are shifting from a world
of low consumer price inflation to one of moderate
inflation. Rising inflation would have a significant
impact on housing markets by driving up mortgage
interest rates.
In this article, we review the reflation arguments and
consider three scenarios corresponding to higher
inflation, lower inflation, and stable inflation. We de-
scribe each scenario, include a qualitative assess-
ment of its likelihood and provide estimates of how
housing and mortgage markets would respond.
Low consumer price inflation in the United States has
been helping to keep long- term interest rates near
the lowest levels in at least a generation (See Side-
bar for a detailed discussion on the primary meas-
ures of inflation and their differences). Over the past
few years, forecasts of rising inflation and rising inter-
est rates have been off the mark. Instead of rising,
inflation and interest rates have persisted at low lev-
els. The persistence of low inflation and low interest
rates has led some economists to question whether
low inflation and low interest rates have become a
permanent feature of our modern economy.
The full article can be found here:
http://tinyurl.com/jqznbex
Annie Williams
Hill & Company
Fax: (415) 202-1686
AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com
DRE #01393923
2 Local Market Trends | San Francisco |
Reflation & the Housing Market - Freddie Mac
The chart above shows the National
monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mort-
gages as compiled by HSH.com. The aver-
age includes mortgages of all sizes, includ-
ing conforming, "expanded conforming,"
and jumbo.
March/April 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
$1,900
0
9
M M J S N 1
0
M M J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
M M J S N 1
7
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2017 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,090,000$ 1,387,037$ 168 43 109.8% -21.6% -13.9% 64.7% 7.4% 6.6% -6.1%
D1: Northwest 2,025,000$ 1,835,000$ 5 48 108.3% 6.6% -28.5% -54.5% -8.4% -23.4% -44.4%
D2: Central West 1,186,000$ 1,279,385$ 13 19 125.3% -3.2% -0.5% -31.6% 3.1% 9.3% -18.8%
D3: Southwest 920,000$ 1,131,286$ 7 78 114.6% 5.1% 11.0% -41.7% -2.4% 3.8% -53.3%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,591,000$ 1,554,336$ 12 22 116.1% -1.1% -15.3% -7.7% 21.3% 18.3% -14.3%
D5: Central 2,475,000$ 2,689,056$ 18 24 107.7% 8.7% 1.7% 100.0% -8.7% -3.1% 63.6%
D6: Central North 3,250,000$ 2,650,000$ 3 9 112.1% -6.8% -24.0% 50.0% 20.9% -1.4% 50.0%
D7: North 6,755,000$ 6,755,000$ 2 60 115.1% 119.7% 46.1% -71.4% 45.3% 51.0% -50.0%
D8: Northeast 6,100,000$ 6,100,000$ 1 170 87.2% n/a n/a n/a 258.8% 258.8% 0.0%
D9: Central East 1,287,500$ 1,286,682$ 18 26 113.7% 3.0% 4.7% 100.0% -11.2% -11.2% 100.0%
D10: Southeast 847,500$ 881,607$ 26 42 112.8% 18.5% 13.9% 0.0% 2.8% 4.0% 30.0%
February Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
01-08
07-08
01-09
07-09
01-10
07-10
01-11
07-11
01-12
07-12
01-13
07-13
01-14
07-14
01-15
07-15
01-16
07-16
01-17
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of prices
were higher and 50% were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or the
price paid for the property divided
by the asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current rate
of sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell that
hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number pf properties actively for
sale as of the last day of the month.
Annie Williams
Hill & Company
Fax: (415) 202-1686
AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com
DRE #01393923
Local Market Trends | San Francisco | 3March/April 2017
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,129,000$ 1,275,382$ 162 39 103.1% 2.9% 5.4% -3.6% 20.7% 15.2% 3.2%
D1: Northwest 541,000$ 782,000$ 3 13 121.1% -49.7% -27.5% -40.0% -41.5% -33.3% -25.0%
D2: Central West -$ -$ 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
D3: Southwest 650,000$ 852,980$ 3 8 104.5% -43.5% -16.9% 0.0% -35.5% -14.5% -25.0%
D4: Twin Peaks 645,000$ 645,000$ 2 32 103.4% -17.3% -9.7% -33.3% -8.4% -8.4% 0.0%
D5: Central 1,526,000$ 1,643,857$ 21 21 107.0% 12.0% 31.4% 31.3% 24.6% 35.5% 10.5%
D6: Central North 1,350,000$ 1,289,159$ 15 21 104.3% 27.4% 3.9% 25.0% 11.1% 2.9% -11.8%
D7: North 1,625,000$ 1,679,464$ 26 43 100.7% 17.1% -9.5% 62.5% 16.5% 11.4% 85.7%
D8: Northeast 865,000$ 1,518,333$ 21 49 98.7% -3.1% 41.1% -25.0% -22.7% 23.3% -30.0%
D9: Central East 1,023,500$ 1,146,684$ 52 41 104.2% 2.9% 4.8% -7.1% 12.8% 4.7% 18.2%
D10: Southeast 520,000$ 520,000$ 2 57 101.1% -24.1% -26.6% -50.0% -17.7% -17.7% 0.0%
February Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
0
9
M M J S N 1
0
M M J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
M M J S N 1
7
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2017 rereport.com
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
0
6
M M J S N 0
7
MM J S N 0
8
MM J S N 0
9
M M J S N 1
0
MM J S N 1
1
MM J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
MM J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
MM J S N 1
7
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum
Sales Pricing © 2017 rereport.com
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
9
A J O 1
0
A J O 1
1
A J O 1
2
A J O 1
3
A J O 1
4
A J O 1
5
A J O 1
6
A J O 1
7
San Francisco Homes: Days on Market
© 2017 rereport.com
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given.
Annie Williams
Hill & Company
1880 Lombard Street
San, Francisco 94123
Go online to see the full report with the district by district breakdown: http://rereport.com/sf/aw/
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
0
9
M M J S N 1
0
MM J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
M M J S N 1
7
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change
© 2017 rereport.com
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
0
9
M M J S N 1
0
M M J S N 1
1
M M J S N 1
2
M M J S N 1
3
M M J S N 1
4
M M J S N 1
5
M M J S N 1
6
M M J S N 1
7
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2017 rereport.com

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Annie Williams Real Estate Report Mar-Apr 2017

  • 1. The Real Estate Report Prices for single-family, re-sale homes were down, year-over-year, for the fourth month in a row in February. After reaching record highs last October, due to a slew of $10MM+ sales, both the median and average price for homes in San Francisco have cooled off considerably. The median price for homes in February was down 21.6% from last year, while the average price dropped 13.9%. Loft/condo prices were up slightly with the median price rising 2.9% and the average gaining 5.4%. Home sales popped for the fourth month in a row, rising 64.7%. Loft/condo sales, on the other hand, were off 3.6%. The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for both homes and loft/condos: 109.8% for homes and 103.1% for loft/townhomes. FEBRUARY SALES STATISTICS Sales momentum… for homes jumped 5.5 points to +15.7. Sales momentum for condos/townhomes fell 0.4 of a point to +0.8. Pricing momentum… for single-family homes fell 4.7 points to -3.0, putting it in negative territory for the first time since July 2012. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts rose 0.3 0f a point to -3.4. Our momentum statistics are based on 12-month moving averages to eliminate monthly and seasonal variations. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options. Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San, Francisco 94123 Fax: (415) 202-1686 Cell: (415) 819-2663 AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com DRE #01393923 Annie Williams Annie Williams | Fax: (415) 202-1686 | AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com Home Prices Down, Loft/Condo Prices Up Local Market Trends March/April 2017San Francisco Feb 17 Jan 17 Feb 16 Home Sales: 168 179 102 Median Price: 1,090,000$ 1,015,000$ 1,390,000$ Average Price: 1,387,037$ 1,301,460$ 1,611,354$ SP/LP: 109.8% 104.3% 108.8% Days on Market: 43 50 31 Feb 17 Jan 17 Feb 16 Condo Sales: 162 157 168 Median Price: 1,129,000$ 935,000$ 1,097,500$ Average Price: 1,275,382$ 1,107,383$ 1,209,993$ SP/LP: 103.1% 101.0% 105.3% Days on Market: 39 58 35 (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC) Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes) -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 0 6 MM J S N 0 7 MM J S N 0 8 MM J S N 0 9 M M J S N 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 M M J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 MM J S N 1 5 MM J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum Sales Pricing © 2017 rereport.com
  • 2. Feb. 28, 2017 -- Recent reports indicate that con- sumer price inflation is rising, reigniting the reflation debate—whether or not we are shifting from a world of low consumer price inflation to one of moderate inflation. Rising inflation would have a significant impact on housing markets by driving up mortgage interest rates. In this article, we review the reflation arguments and consider three scenarios corresponding to higher inflation, lower inflation, and stable inflation. We de- scribe each scenario, include a qualitative assess- ment of its likelihood and provide estimates of how housing and mortgage markets would respond. Low consumer price inflation in the United States has been helping to keep long- term interest rates near the lowest levels in at least a generation (See Side- bar for a detailed discussion on the primary meas- ures of inflation and their differences). Over the past few years, forecasts of rising inflation and rising inter- est rates have been off the mark. Instead of rising, inflation and interest rates have persisted at low lev- els. The persistence of low inflation and low interest rates has led some economists to question whether low inflation and low interest rates have become a permanent feature of our modern economy. The full article can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/jqznbex Annie Williams Hill & Company Fax: (415) 202-1686 AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com DRE #01393923 2 Local Market Trends | San Francisco | Reflation & the Housing Market - Freddie Mac The chart above shows the National monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mort- gages as compiled by HSH.com. The aver- age includes mortgages of all sizes, includ- ing conforming, "expanded conforming," and jumbo. March/April 2017 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 $300 $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 $1,900 0 9 M M J S N 1 0 M M J S N 1 1 M M J S N 1 2 M M J S N 1 3 M M J S N 1 4 M M J S N 1 5 M M J S N 1 6 M M J S N 1 7 San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2017 rereport.com Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco 1,090,000$ 1,387,037$ 168 43 109.8% -21.6% -13.9% 64.7% 7.4% 6.6% -6.1% D1: Northwest 2,025,000$ 1,835,000$ 5 48 108.3% 6.6% -28.5% -54.5% -8.4% -23.4% -44.4% D2: Central West 1,186,000$ 1,279,385$ 13 19 125.3% -3.2% -0.5% -31.6% 3.1% 9.3% -18.8% D3: Southwest 920,000$ 1,131,286$ 7 78 114.6% 5.1% 11.0% -41.7% -2.4% 3.8% -53.3% D4: Twin Peaks 1,591,000$ 1,554,336$ 12 22 116.1% -1.1% -15.3% -7.7% 21.3% 18.3% -14.3% D5: Central 2,475,000$ 2,689,056$ 18 24 107.7% 8.7% 1.7% 100.0% -8.7% -3.1% 63.6% D6: Central North 3,250,000$ 2,650,000$ 3 9 112.1% -6.8% -24.0% 50.0% 20.9% -1.4% 50.0% D7: North 6,755,000$ 6,755,000$ 2 60 115.1% 119.7% 46.1% -71.4% 45.3% 51.0% -50.0% D8: Northeast 6,100,000$ 6,100,000$ 1 170 87.2% n/a n/a n/a 258.8% 258.8% 0.0% D9: Central East 1,287,500$ 1,286,682$ 18 26 113.7% 3.0% 4.7% 100.0% -11.2% -11.2% 100.0% D10: Southeast 847,500$ 881,607$ 26 42 112.8% 18.5% 13.9% 0.0% 2.8% 4.0% 30.0% February Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 01-08 07-08 01-09 07-09 01-10 07-10 01-11 07-11 01-12 07-12 01-13 07-13 01-14 07-14 01-15 07-15 01-16 07-16 01-17 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
  • 3. Table Definitions _______________ Median Price The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50% were lower. Average Price Add all prices and divide by the number of sales. SP/LP Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property divided by the asking price. DOI Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the property for sale at the current rate of sales. Pend Property under contract to sell that hasn’t closed escrow. Inven Number pf properties actively for sale as of the last day of the month. Annie Williams Hill & Company Fax: (415) 202-1686 AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com DRE #01393923 Local Market Trends | San Francisco | 3March/April 2017 Unit Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales San Francisco 1,129,000$ 1,275,382$ 162 39 103.1% 2.9% 5.4% -3.6% 20.7% 15.2% 3.2% D1: Northwest 541,000$ 782,000$ 3 13 121.1% -49.7% -27.5% -40.0% -41.5% -33.3% -25.0% D2: Central West -$ -$ 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a D3: Southwest 650,000$ 852,980$ 3 8 104.5% -43.5% -16.9% 0.0% -35.5% -14.5% -25.0% D4: Twin Peaks 645,000$ 645,000$ 2 32 103.4% -17.3% -9.7% -33.3% -8.4% -8.4% 0.0% D5: Central 1,526,000$ 1,643,857$ 21 21 107.0% 12.0% 31.4% 31.3% 24.6% 35.5% 10.5% D6: Central North 1,350,000$ 1,289,159$ 15 21 104.3% 27.4% 3.9% 25.0% 11.1% 2.9% -11.8% D7: North 1,625,000$ 1,679,464$ 26 43 100.7% 17.1% -9.5% 62.5% 16.5% 11.4% 85.7% D8: Northeast 865,000$ 1,518,333$ 21 49 98.7% -3.1% 41.1% -25.0% -22.7% 23.3% -30.0% D9: Central East 1,023,500$ 1,146,684$ 52 41 104.2% 2.9% 4.8% -7.1% 12.8% 4.7% 18.2% D10: Southeast 520,000$ 520,000$ 2 57 101.1% -24.1% -26.6% -50.0% -17.7% -17.7% 0.0% February Sales Statistics (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 $300 $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 0 9 M M J S N 1 0 M M J S N 1 1 M M J S N 1 2 M M J S N 1 3 M M J S N 1 4 M M J S N 1 5 M M J S N 1 6 M M J S N 1 7 San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) Ave Med Units © 2017 rereport.com -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 0 6 M M J S N 0 7 MM J S N 0 8 MM J S N 0 9 M M J S N 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 MM J S N 1 2 M M J S N 1 3 MM J S N 1 4 M M J S N 1 5 M M J S N 1 6 MM J S N 1 7 San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum Sales Pricing © 2017 rereport.com 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 9 A J O 1 0 A J O 1 1 A J O 1 2 A J O 1 3 A J O 1 4 A J O 1 5 A J O 1 6 A J O 1 7 San Francisco Homes: Days on Market © 2017 rereport.com
  • 4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT San Francisco This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com. Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given. Annie Williams Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San, Francisco 94123 Go online to see the full report with the district by district breakdown: http://rereport.com/sf/aw/ -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 0 9 M M J S N 1 0 MM J S N 1 1 M M J S N 1 2 M M J S N 1 3 M M J S N 1 4 M M J S N 1 5 M M J S N 1 6 M M J S N 1 7 San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change © 2017 rereport.com -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 0 9 M M J S N 1 0 M M J S N 1 1 M M J S N 1 2 M M J S N 1 3 M M J S N 1 4 M M J S N 1 5 M M J S N 1 6 M M J S N 1 7 San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change © 2017 rereport.com