Risk Management * Risks and Risk ManagementRisks are potential events that have negative impacts on safety or project technical performance, cost or scheduleRisks are an inevitable fact of life – risks can be reduced but never eliminatedRisk Management comprises purposeful thought to the sources, magnitude, and mitigation of risk, and actions directed toward its balanced reductionBeneficial Risk - The same tools and perspectives that are used to discover, manage and reduce risks can be used to discover, manage and increase project opportunities (increased performance). * * What if? IF Predict “IF” IdentifyEvaluate “IF” AnalyzePlan for “IF” PlanTracking “IF” TrackBudget for “IF” Control Risk Management LawsTermsTypes of RiskRisk Management LawsMurphy’s Law If something can go wrong it will go wrong Finagle’s Law of Dynamic Negatives (corollary to Murphy’s Law Things will go wrong at the worst possible time What is Risk Management?Seeks or identifies risksAssesses the likelihood and impact of these risksDevelops mitigation options for all identified risksIdentifies the most significant risks and chooses which mitigation options to implementTracks progress to confirm that cumulative project risk is indeed decliningCommunicates and documents the project risk statusRepeats this process throughout the project life Risk management is a continuous and iterative decision making technique designed to improve the probability of success. It is a proactive approach that: * * Risk Matrix * Impact Probability of Occurrence 3 2 4 1 Risk Warning SignsTPMsSchedule ProjectionsCost ProjectionsSupplier problemsLate technology demonstrations Types of RiskTechnical Risks Programmatic RisksCost Schedule Supportability Risks Beneficial Risks Risk AnalysisWhat Could Go WrongWhat is the ProbabilityWhat is the Magnitude of ImpactCostSchedulePerformance Alternate Strategies (Off Ramps) Beneficial RiskHigh Risk – High Payoff Mitigation StrategyAlternate PlansCriteriaScheduleBudget Risk HandlingHave a PlanTotal ProgramBudget (Cost / Schedule) for PlanGet “Buy-In”Monitor StatusMetricsClose out Risk – In GeneralRisk is HealthyNot Identifying Risk shows:You don’t understand the program AND/ORYou are dishonest AND/ORYou think the customer is stupidIdentify all potential RiskKnock them down with Mitigation Plans Summary “It’s risky not to embrace risk.” SE = Technical Program MgmtKey focus of systems engineeringincludes the direction of a totally integrated effort of system design, test and evaluation, production, and logistics support over the system life cycleThe goal is timely deployment of an effective system, sustaining it, and satisfying the user’s need at an affordable cost.Involves balancing a system’s cost, schedule, and performance while controlling risk. * Technical Performance MeasuresTPMs are measures of the system technical performance that have been chosen because they ...

1. Risk Management
*
Risks and Risk ManagementRisks are potential events that have
negative impacts on safety or project technical performance,
cost or scheduleRisks are an inevitable fact of life – risks can
be reduced but never eliminatedRisk Management comprises
purposeful thought to the sources, magnitude, and mitigation of
risk, and actions directed toward its balanced
reductionBeneficial Risk - The same tools and perspectives that
are used to discover, manage and reduce risks can be used to
discover, manage and increase project opportunities (increased
performance).
*
*
What if?
IF
Predict “IF” IdentifyEvaluate “IF” AnalyzePlan

2. for “IF” PlanTracking “IF” TrackBudget for “IF”
Control
Risk Management
LawsTermsTypes of RiskRisk Management
LawsMurphy’s Law
If something can go wrong it will go wrong
Finagle’s Law of Dynamic Negatives (corollary to Murphy’s
Law
Things will go wrong at the worst possible time
What is Risk Management?Seeks or identifies risksAssesses the
likelihood and impact of these risksDevelops mitigation options
for all identified risksIdentifies the most significant risks and
chooses which mitigation options to implementTracks progress
to confirm that cumulative project risk is indeed
decliningCommunicates and documents the project risk
statusRepeats this process throughout the project life
Risk management is a continuous and iterative decision making
technique designed to improve the probability of success. It is a
proactive approach that:
*
*

3. Risk Matrix
*
Impact
Probability of Occurrence
3
2
4
1
Risk Warning SignsTPMsSchedule ProjectionsCost
ProjectionsSupplier problemsLate technology demonstrations

4. Types of RiskTechnical Risks
Programmatic RisksCost Schedule
Supportability Risks
Beneficial Risks
Risk AnalysisWhat Could Go WrongWhat is the
ProbabilityWhat is the Magnitude of
ImpactCostSchedulePerformance
Alternate Strategies (Off Ramps)
Beneficial RiskHigh Risk – High Payoff
Mitigation StrategyAlternate PlansCriteriaScheduleBudget
Risk HandlingHave a PlanTotal ProgramBudget (Cost /
Schedule) for PlanGet “Buy-In”Monitor StatusMetricsClose out
Risk – In GeneralRisk is HealthyNot Identifying Risk
shows:You don’t understand the program
AND/ORYou are dishonest
AND/ORYou think the customer is stupidIdentify all potential
RiskKnock them down with Mitigation Plans

5. Summary
“It’s risky not to embrace risk.”
SE = Technical Program MgmtKey focus of systems
engineeringincludes the direction of a totally integrated effort
of system design, test and evaluation, production, and logistics
support over the system life cycleThe goal is timely deployment
of an effective system, sustaining it, and satisfying the user’s
need at an affordable cost.Involves balancing a system’s cost,
schedule, and performance while controlling risk.
*
Technical Performance MeasuresTPMs are measures of the
system technical performance that have been chosen because
they are indicators of system success. They are based on the
driving requirements or technical parameters of high risk or
significance - e.g., mass, power or data rate.TPMs are
analogous to the programmatic measures of expected total cost
or estimated time-to-completion (schedule).
*

6. Technical Performance MeasuresActual versus planned progress
of TPMs are tracked so the systems engineer or project manager
can assess progress and the risk associated with each TPM. The
final, delivered system value can be estimated by extending the
TPM trend line and using the recommended contingency values
for each project phase.The project life trend-to-date, current
value, and forecast of all TPMs are reviewed periodically
(typically monthly) and at all major milestone reviews.
*
*
TPMs Are ToolsTechnique of predicting the future value of a
key technical performance parameter Continuous verification
confirms progress and identifies variances Assessed values
falling outside established tolerances indicate the need for
management attention
Why TPMsA well thought out TPM program provides Early
warning of technical problemsSupports assessments of the
extent to which operational requirements will be metAssesses
the impacts of proposed changes made to lower-level elements
in the system hierarchy on system performance.
Balancing Cost, Sked, Performance

7. Selecting TPMsParameters to be tracked are typically based on
the combined needs of the customer and the
contractorContractor may track more items than are reported to
the customer, as the contractor needs information at a more
detailed level than does the customer program office.Customer
requires visibility into the technical performance of key
elements of the work breakdown structureEspecially those
which are needed to meet system key performance parameters
(KPPs), are cost drives, lie on critical path or high risk items
Example TPM
Shipboard
Fire Control System
CW
Transmitter
Data
Processor
Antenna
Power Density Detection Range
Slew Time Tx Ant Side lobes
CW Ant Side lobes Tx Track Acc
AM NoiseFM Noise
Pointing Acc Weight
Radiated Power MTBF
MTTR Range Res
Angle Res
AM/FM Noise
Radiated Pwr
MTBF
MTBF
Memory

8. Proc Speed
MTTR
Slew Time
MTTR
Side Lobes
Beam Width
TPM SelectionThe level of the system at which parameters are
selected is based on how readily the information supports timely
design decisions.For example, the timely identification and
neutralization of targets and threats are essential to both the
operational effectiveness and survivability of a ship. If there is
a risk associated with meeting the detection range requirement
allocated to the ship’s fire control system, then the technical
manager will want to have data that supports design decisions
related to achieving both the system and subsystem performance
during the design process, such as predicted (and actual)
radiated power and data processor speed.
TPM SelectionThese are metrics that can be measured under
laboratory conditions before costly and time-consuming
fabrication, integration, and conformance testing of higher
assemblies; and continued monitoring assures that required
values are met under actual environmental conditions and
system loading.Thoughtful selection of the parameters to
measure can minimize unpleasant surprises in formal
developmental and operational testing.
Conceptual TPM Graphic

9. Team ProjectMake sure you have at least 4-5 TPMs for your
project. They must be presented in graphical form like previous
slide
*
PAGE
1
Insert name
Title
Specific purpose:
Introduction
I. Open with impact
A. (Use sub-points if needed)
II. Connect:
III. Thesis:
IV. Preview:
Body
I. Main point:
Transition: (How you plan to move from your first main point
onto your second main body point)
II. Main point:
1.
Transition: (How you plan to move from your second main point
onto your third main body point)

10. I. Main point:
Transition: (How you plan to move from your third main point
onto your conclusion)
Conclusion
I. Review:
II. Conclude with impact:
References
[Insert APA style references in alphabetical order – for help
refer to Purdue Owl]
Persuasive Speech
Basics
7-9 minutes of speaking time
PowerPoint or Prezi is required
Required to orally cite 6 sources
At least 1 must be from someone who opposes your position.
Aim for more than 1 to fully address the opposing side & to
strengthen your level of persuasiveness.
Speech is worth 150 pts
An outline is required (30 pts)
Must be submitted to Turnitin
Bring a hard copy on your speech day

11. The Art of Persuasion
Persuasion: An attempt to change attitudes, values, behaviors,
or beliefs.
Persuasion has been studied since ancient Greece.
Aristotle & Plato were all contributors to modern persuasion in
one way or another.
Much of society operates off of persuasion.
Vote 4 Stuff
Persuasion is happening right now.
How?
What did you do this morning?
Ethos, Pathos, & Logos right now
Grading Breakdown
Organization: 20 points
Content: 70 points
Delivery: 20 points
PPT Slides: 20 points
Overall: 20 points
Organization (20 pts)
Note: thesis & audience connection are combined in the rubric,
but are still distinctly separate elements of your speech.
Note: Conclusion-impact isn’t included in Organization, but

12. becomes your Call to Action & Impact in Content.
Content (70 pts)
Support: Information that supports your stance on the topic.
Refutation: Information from the opposing side.
Reasoning: Evaluate why you want to persuade us on this topic
and incorporate this reasoning.
Call to Action & Impact:
What do we need to recognize about this topic?
What action are you asking us to take? (funding issue, more
awareness, attend workshops, knowledge about on campus
resources, participate in their 5k, etc.)
Is it feasible and reasonable?
Stated in the conclusion.
Content (70 pts)
Source quantity: 6 or more sources
Source quality: High quality, academic (academic journals,
encyclopedias, books, podcasts, documentaries, interviews, etc.)
No more than 2 websites used as sources.
Show your research skills & how they’ve developed.
Source utilization: Correctly cited in APA & sources are being
cited at accurate moments in the speech between your own
commentaries.
Take your research even more seriously than before.

13. Delivery (20 pts)
A heavy reliance on PowerPoint/Prezi slides will affect your
delivery grade.
Consider spending more time practicing your speech to get
comfortable with using the slides and technology.
PowerPoint Slides (20 pts)
Keep design in mind. Don’t overdo it with graphics, animations,
bright font, and hard to read text.
Know which parts of your speech correspond with your slides.
Be able to move through your slides, at the same pace of your
speech.
PowerPoint Slides (20 pts)
Here’s a preview of what NOT to do (& our PowerPoint
workshop):
Overall (20 pts)
Topic choice: Choose a controversial topic that has an opposing
side.
Persuasiveness: Have you moved us in some way to leave this
classroom and spend some time looking into this topic you
presented on?

14. -Will we actually be able & want to act on your call to action?
-Will we ultimately recognize the impact of this topic?
Activity: Recognizing Persuasion
Let’s Analyze:
Who’s the speaker?
What’s the intended audience?
What’s the overall message being delivered?
David Beckham
Ozzy Osbourne
Levi's
Darren's Dance Grooves
Skype
Child of the 90's-Microsoft
Ship My Pants-KMART
Don’t You Want to Be Just Like…
Kim Kardashian and use Charmin?
Usher and “burn” through your money?