7-* Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Risk Management Chapter 7 7-* Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Risk Risk management - the art and science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk factors throughout the life of a project and in the best interest of its objectives. Project risk – any possible event that can negatively affect the viability of a project * Why Do Projects Fail?Generally, from poor risk managementFailure to identify risksFailure to actively/aggressively plan for, attack and eliminate “project killing” risksRisk comes in different shapes and sizesSchedule risks (short to long)Cost risks (small to large)Technology risks (probable to impossible) * * Elements of Risk ManagementManaging risk consists of: identifying, addressing and eliminating risksWhen does this occur?(WORST) Crisis management/Fire fighting : addressing risk after they present a big problem(BAD) Fix on failure : finding and addressing as the occur.(OKAY) Risk Mitigation : plan ahead and allocate resources to address risk that occur, but don’t try to eliminate them before they occur(GOOD) Prevention : part of the plan to identify and prevent risks before they become problems(BEST) Eliminate Root Causes : part of the plan to identify and eliminate the factors that make specific risks possible * * Elements of Risk ManagementEffective Risk Management is made up of:Risk Assessment: identify, analyze, prioritizeRisk Control: planning, resolution, monitoring RISK MANAGEMENT RISK CONTROL RISK ASSESSMENT IDENTIFICATION ANALYSIS PLANNING PRIORITIZATION RESOLUION MONITORING * * Risk Assessment TasksIdentification: produces a list of risks that have potential to disrupt your project’s scheduleAnalysis: assesses the likelihood and impact of each identified risk, and the risk levels of possible alternativesPrioritization: prioritizes the list by impactserves as the basis for risk control tasks * * Risk Control TasksPlanning: produces your plan for dealing with each risk Must ensure consistency of the risk management plan with your overall project planResolution: executing your plan to deal with the risksMonitoring: staying on top of your plan and re-evaluate for new risks * 7-* Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Risk Vs Amount at Stake Phase 1 Conceive (C) Phase 2 Develop (D) Phase 3 Execute (E) Phase 4 Finish (F) Time $ Value Increasing Risk Total Project Life Cycle Amount at stake Plan Produce Opportunity and risk Period of highest risk impact Combined risk impact 7-* Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Process of Risk Management What is likely to happen? What can be done? What are the warning signs? What are the likely outcomes? Project Risk = (Probability of Event)(Consequences of Event) 7-* Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. .

1. 7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Risk Management
Chapter 7
7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Risk
Risk management - the art and science of identifying,
analyzing, and responding to risk factors throughout the life of
a project and in the best interest of its objectives.
Project risk – any possible event that can negatively affect
the viability of a project
*
Why Do Projects Fail?Generally, from poor risk
managementFailure to identify risksFailure to
actively/aggressively plan for, attack and eliminate “project
killing” risksRisk comes in different shapes and sizesSchedule
risks (short to long)Cost risks (small to large)Technology risks
(probable to impossible)

2. *
*
Elements of Risk ManagementManaging risk consists of:
identifying, addressing and eliminating risksWhen does this
occur?(WORST) Crisis management/Fire fighting : addressing
risk after they present a big problem(BAD) Fix on failure :
finding and addressing as the occur.(OKAY) Risk Mitigation :
plan ahead and allocate resources to address risk that occur, but
don’t try to eliminate them before they occur(GOOD)
Prevention : part of the plan to identify and prevent risks before
they become problems(BEST) Eliminate Root Causes : part of
the plan to identify and eliminate the factors that make specific
risks possible
*
*
Elements of Risk ManagementEffective Risk Management is
made up of:Risk Assessment: identify, analyze, prioritizeRisk
Control: planning, resolution, monitoring

3. RISK
MANAGEMENT
RISK
CONTROL
RISK
ASSESSMENT
IDENTIFICATION
ANALYSIS
PLANNING
PRIORITIZATION
RESOLUION
MONITORING
*
*
Risk Assessment TasksIdentification: produces a list of risks
that have potential to disrupt your project’s scheduleAnalysis:
assesses the likelihood and impact of each identified risk, and
the risk levels of possible alternativesPrioritization: prioritizes
the list by impactserves as the basis for risk control tasks
*

4. *
Risk Control TasksPlanning: produces your plan for dealing
with each risk Must ensure consistency of the risk management
plan with your overall project planResolution: executing your
plan to deal with the risksMonitoring: staying on top of your
plan and re-evaluate for new risks
*
7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Risk Vs Amount at Stake
Phase 1 Conceive (C)
Phase 2 Develop (D)
Phase 3 Execute (E)
Phase 4 Finish (F)
Time
$ Value
Increasing Risk
Total Project Life Cycle
Amount at stake

5. Plan
Produce
Opportunity and risk
Period of highest risk impact
Combined risk impact
7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Process of Risk Management
What is likely to happen?
What can be done?
What are the warning signs?
What are the likely outcomes?
Project Risk = (Probability of Event)(Consequences of Event)
7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Four Stages of Risk Management
Risk identification
Analysis of probability and consequences
Risk mitigation strategies
Control and documentation

6. 7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Risk Clusters
Financial
Technical
Contractual/Legal
Commercial
Execution
Common TypesAbsenteeismResignationStaff pulled awayTime
overruns
Skills unavailable
Ineffective Training
Specs incomplete
Change orders
7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Risk Factor Identification
Brainstorming meetings
Expert opinion
Past history
Multiple (or team based) assessments
LSU 10/09/2007
Risk Management
*
Assessing the risk impactNot all risks need to be subject to

7. monitoring and controlUse a Scenario Analysis to assess the
risk event impactDetermine all consequences and their severity
if the event happensIdentify when, during the project, will the
event likely happenEstimate the probability that the risk event
will occurDetermine how difficult it will be to detect the event
occurrence
Figure from “Project Management” by Gray and Larson
Risk Management
LSU 10/09/2007
Risk Management
*
Ranking the risk importance
Based on figure from “Project Management” by Gray and
LarsonRank risks from those that can be neglected to those that
require elevated vigilanceA Risk Severity Matrix can be helpful
in prioritizing risksPlot of event probability versus impactRed
zone identifies the most important eventsYellow zone lists risks
that are moderately importantGreen zone events probably can be
safely ignoredNote that the zones are not symmetrical across the
matrixHigh impact low probability events much more important
than likely low impact events
Risk Management
Risk & Opportunity
Assessment Model (ROAM)
Project Opportunity
Risk Assessment
Excellent Opportunity Low Risk
Excellent Opportunity High Risk
Marginal Opportunity High Risk

8. Marginal Opportunity Low Risk
High
Medium
Low
Low
High
Medium
7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Project Risk Scoring
Identify factors and assess the probability (Pf ) and
consequences (Cf) of failure
Calculate overall probability & consequence
Calculate overall risk factor
7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Risk Mitigation Strategies
Accept

9. Minimize
Share
Transfer
Contingency Reserves
Task contingency
Managerial contingency
Mentoring
Cross training
7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Control & Documentation
Help managers classify and codify risks, responses, and
outcomes
Change management report system
answersWhat?Who?When?Why?How?
7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Project Risk Analysis & Management
Extends risk management over project’s life cycle
Key Features of PRAM
Risk management follows a life cycle
Risk management strategy changes over the project life cycle
Synthesized, coherent approach

10. 7-*
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as
Prentice Hall
Nine Phases of Risk Assessment
DefineFocusIdentifyStructureClarify ownership of
risksEstimateEvaluatePlanManage
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Running head: BUSN311 - Quantitative Methods and Analysis
1
Unit 3 – Survey Sample Size
Type your Name Here
American InterContinental University
Abstract

11. This is a single paragraph, no indentation is required. The next
page will be an abstract; “a brief, comprehensive summary of
the contents of the article; it allows the readers to survey the
contents of an article quickly” (Publication Manual, 2010). The
length of this abstract should be 35-50 words (2-3 sentences).
NOTE: the abstract must be on page 2 and the body of the paper
will begin on page 3.
Introduction
Provide a brief introduction (2-3 sentences) to the email you are
writing for the purposes of previewing what will be covered.
Entertainment Survey
Using a newspaper article from AIU library’s full-text
database: National Newspapers (Proquest), create a lecture
(with citations) which includes the following: Describe an
entertainment poll or survey. Analyze the number of people who
participated in the sample compared to the number in the
population. Most news articles will not provide information on
the number of people surveyed. In this case critique the validity
of the results. (Be sure to cite the article which must be from
National Newspapers -ProQuest) NOTE: There is a research
Guide in the classroom to help with this assignment. Discuss
how the results of the survey can be used to tell a story or
support an idea of the sponsoring company or media group.
Political Survey
Using polls from one of the following sources: http://people-
press.org/question-search/ or http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
Describe a political poll or survey. Analyze the number of
people who participated in the sample compared to the number
in the population. Discuss how the results of the survey can be
used to tell a story or support an idea of the sponsoring
company or media group.

12. General Survey
Using polls from one of the following sources:http://people-
press.org/question-search/ or http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
Describe a general opinion poll or survey. Analyze the number
of people who participated in the sample compared to the
number in the population. Discuss how the results of the survey
can be used to tell a story or support an idea of the sponsoring
company or media group.
Overview
Consider the three surveys presented. Using the knowledge you
learned from the textbook, compare and contrast the sample
sizes in each of the three surveys mentioned in the post and
determine if the samples sizes are appropriate. In your opinion,
which appears to be the most valid? (Cite and reference the
textbook) This section of the paper will be 2-3 pages in length
and each survey or poll described MUST come from AIU
Library’s National Newspapers- ProQuest Database and Pew
Research Center or Gallup. Please do not use quotes or copy
definitions. You will not receive credit for understanding the
materials if you use the words of others. Keep in mind that
since you did research and you have citations in the body of the
post, you must also place a reference list at the end containing
the textbook and the articles cited.
Application: Copy of Survey
Create your own 3 question Entertainment or General Opinion
Survey using http://www.zoomerang.com/basic/ or another free
survey program or http://www.surveymonkey.com/. Secure a
minimum of 20 responses. Your survey respondents may be
friends, family or classmates. (NOTE: The small sample size
was chosen for convenience and as you know is not a valid
sample. The goal is for you to create, deploy and analyze a
simple survey.) Include a copy of your survey.
Application: Results - Chart 1
Provide charts of your results and describe the 3 charts in
words.
Application: Results - Chart 2

13. Provide charts of your results and describe the 3 charts in
words.
Application: Results - Chart 3
Provide charts of your results and describe the 3 charts in
words.
Application: Surveys and Business
Explain how the results of your survey can be used by a media
group or company. This section of the paper will contain 1 page
of text and 3 charts.
Conclusion
Add some concluding remarks-can be a sentence or two.
References
NOTE: The reference list starts on a new page after your
conclusion.
For help with formatting citations and references using rules
outlined in the APA Manual’s 6th Edition, please check out the
AIU APA guide located under the Interactive Learning section
on the left side of the course.
General Form for Electronic References
NOTE: A reference list is presented alphabetically by author's
last name
Note: Some elements of the 6th edition's style guidelines for
electronic resources differ from previously published
guidelines.
Electronic sources include aggregated databases, online
journals, Web sites or Web pages, newsgroups, Web- or e-mail-
based discussion groups, and Web- or e-mail-based newsletters.
Online periodical:
Author, A. A., Author, B. B., & Author, C. C. (2000). Title of
article. Title of Periodical, xx, xxxxx.
Retrieved month day, year, from source.

14. EXAMPLE:
Reinartz, Werner, Thomas, Jacquelyn S., Kumar, V. (2005).
Balancing acquisition and
resources to maximize customer profitability. Journal of
Marketing, v69, Issue 1. Retrieved
6/13/2005, from Business Source Premier.