1. State of the Smartphone Battlefield
or
Has the iPhone Jumped the Shark?
2 May 2013

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Jumping the Shark - a term to describe a moment
when something that was once great has reached a
point where it will now decline in quality and popularity.

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How Argus Insights measures market performance (Apple iPhones)
0.69
0.7
0.71
0.72
0.73
0.74
0.75
11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09
ConsumerReportedDelight(-1to1)
Market falls out
of love with
iPhone 4S
Size of Bubble is
level of buzz
Almost half of
Apple buzz is 4S.
5 fails to delight
as much

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Broken out by brand…
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09
ConsumerReportedDelight(-1to1)
Apple LG Samsung HTC Motorola Nokia RIM

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But Many Brands Are Offering Multiple Operating Systems
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09
android iOS blackberry other windows

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Not All Handsets Are Created Equal
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09
Apple iPhone 5 Samsung Galaxy S III Samsung Galaxy Note® II
BlackBerry Z10 Droid Razr Maxx HTC One X
HTC Window Phone 8X Nokia Lumia 920 Apple iPhone 4S

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Great But What Is The Market Talking About?
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
iPhone 5
% of consumes
saying positive
things
% of consumes
saying negative
things
Allows comparison to
other experiences
Sorted by how

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Z10 Shows BlackBerry is Back with a Vengeance
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
iPhone 5
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
BlackBerry Z10

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Windows 8 Phone Also Giving Apple Grief
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
iPhone 5
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
Lumia 920

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Samsung continues to challenge Apple the Most
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
iPhone 5
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
Galaxy S3

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-5% 0% 5% 10%
Phone
Web Surfing
Music
Email
Movies
Gaming
Friends
Social Media
Significant Other
Family
Skype/Video…
Books
News/Weather/Spo…
Messaging
Work
Coworker
Laptop Substitute
Lumia 920
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Phone
Web Surfing
Music
Email
Movies
Gaming
Friends
Social Media
Significant Other
Family
Skype/Video…
Books
News/Weather/Spo…
Messaging
Work
Coworker
Laptop Substitute
Galaxy Note II
Usage Patterns Also Shift Across Leading Handsets
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Phone
Web Surfing
Music
Email
Movies
Gaming
Friends
Social Media
Significant Other
Family
Skype/Video…
Books
News/Weather/Spo…
Messaging
Work
Coworker
Laptop Substitute
iPhone 5
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Phone
Web Surfing
Music
Email
Movies
Gaming
Friends
Social Media
Significant Other
Family
Skype/Video…
Books
News/Weather/Spo…
Messaging
Work
Coworker
Laptop Substitute
BlackBerry Z10

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The iPhone has yet to jump the shark but is
practicing ski jumps…
• The iPhone 5 has not refreshed the view of Apple
• Discussion (and sales) of the 4S are as brisk as the 5
– A cheaper iPhone is as valuable an experience as the iPhone 5
– The iPhone 5 did not innovate the experience enough to shift
demand fully
• Apple is also reaching global saturation where
fragmentation of interests and experiences is beginning
– “Think different” is not longer Apple but Samsung, Nokia, and
BlackBerry
– Always on a quest to have something different than the
masses/your mom, young buyers are shifting away from iPhone
• iPhone is in danger of jumping the shark, the iPhone
6/mini might be that moment

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