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Big Lies and Small Truths About Big Data

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The hype around Big Data is driving a tidal wave of change throughout our industry. Like any tidal wave, it consists of a hodgepodge of components, is surrounded in legend, and behaves in unexpected ways. As this wave breaks over every part of the enterprise, IT, Marketing, Sales, even Development, the mix of data, tools, investment, and outright lies make it difficult to prepare effectively for it's arrival. Like many of the companies caught in the early storm surge of Big Data, Argus Insights became a big data company almost by accident. Thriving after the encounter, we would like to separate the hype of how to respond to Big Data from what we learned to be the small truths of thriving in the ocean of information all around us.

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Big Lies and Small Truths About Big Data

  1. 1. Big Lies and Small Truths Tales from an Accidental Big Data Scientist
  2. 2. Share of mind leads share of market What Marketing Wants
  3. 3. Share of mind leads share of market What IT Perceives
  4. 4. Share of mind leads share of market What Consumers Fear
  5. 5. Page 5© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Data Process In a Nutshell COLLECT REPORTANALYZE TAKE ACTION
  6. 6. Page 6© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Where is the Data From? • Owned • Purchased • Created
  7. 7. Page 7© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute What Is The Data About? People
  8. 8. Page 8© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute What is the Data About? Things
  9. 9. Share of mind leads share of market at Is The Data About? Things About People
  10. 10. Page 10© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Lie #1 “It will take millions of dollars and a huge Hadoop cluster to prove the utility of BIG DATA”
  11. 11. Page 11© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute AvgAI SIP.MLE -40 -30 -20 -10 0 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 1 3 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 2 4 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 Phrase.Count 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Start Small and Scale As Needed…
  12. 12. Page 12© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Lie #2 “Once we have the data actionable insights will start raining from the sky”
  13. 13. Page 13© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced
  14. 14. Page 14© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Need Technologist and Subject Matter Experts Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced
  15. 15. Page 15© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Lie #3 “Petabytes of data Plus statistical significance values of 0.00001 equals respect in the board room” Or “If you process it, they will come”
  16. 16. Page 16© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Small Truth #3 • Report in the language of the decision maker • Empathy in report is critical to enable action
  17. 17. Page 17© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Lie #4 “If we measure everything we will be measuring the right things”
  18. 18. Page 18© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute “Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on the industry” Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg “The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure or challenges of the mobile industry” Charles Golvin – Forrester Research “The iPhone is a niche product” Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008
  19. 19. Page 19© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute “If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.” Lord Kelvin
  20. 20. Page 20© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Others predict based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 MillionsofiPhones;BillionsofdollarsinRevenue BuzzVolumeforiPhoneModels Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for Q2 2013 iPhone Sales Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 3GS Apple iPhone 3G Apple iPhone Quarterly iPhone Sales Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Consensus Morgan Stanley Argus Insights Estimate Based onApple’s Actual Q2 iPhone Unit Volume
  21. 21. Page 22© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Argus Insights Proprietary Metrics Are Proven Predictors of Consumer Demand 3-Feb-13 23-Mar-13 23-Apr-13 23-May-13 23-Jun-13 23-Jul-13 23-Aug-13 23-Sep-13 23-Oct-13 23-Nov-13 Mapping Handset Consumer Buzz Metrics to Actual Handset Sales Actual Sales/Returns for Specific Handset Predicted Sales Using Argus Metrics from 8 weeks prior Eight Weeks Predicting Adjusted R2 = 87.8% p-value = 4.547E-22 HandsetUnitSales/Returns Using only our consumer metrics and retail pricing, Argus Insights was able to predict handset sales volume eight weeks into the future for a major smartphone brand
  22. 22. What Are They Really Talking About?
  23. 23. Page 29© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Lots of chatter but few conversations Nothing says “I love you” like a man’s armpit wearing Old Spice inside of a tuxedo on a battleship that has a mariachi band to serenade you. “Dear axe body spray, please out a suggested serving size on your bottle. Sincerely, choking girls everywhere.”
  24. 24. Page 30© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Behavior over Buzz • Brand Story – Traditional media – Digital media – Digital Advocacy • Product Reality – Mostly shared in consumer reviews – Proven leading indicator of sales performanc
  25. 25. Page 31© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute When Consumers engage reveals how to engage… • Different segments of consumers engage at different times of the day • Each segment has unique influences that shape advocacy 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ConsumerTweetsfromDallas,NYC, andSanJose Lipstick Mentions By Valid Consumers (Normalized to EST) What to What to Which What I saw!
  26. 26. Page 32© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Behaviors Swamp Brands, Consumers Drive Content 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 SocialMentionsfrom 27Nov-2Dec2013 Comparing Lipstick Mention vs. Brand Social Mentions General Lipstick Mentions Occur 100 times more than any major brand
  27. 27. Page 33© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute VS
  28. 28. Page 34© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Humankind has been fascinated for centuries!
  29. 29. Page 35© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Tracking Target Segments since Oct 2012 in Twitter Walking Dead Premiere Vampire Diaries Premiere Zombie Chatter is steadily 2X that of Vampire ChatterZombies are gender balanced. Twice as many women mention vampires
  30. 30. Page 36© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Somewhere in suburban Georgia
  31. 31. Page 37© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Introducing the Zompire Index • Needed a way to track the both targets • Normalized for state populations to understand relative strength of segment • Since one target is larger than the other needed a way to balance
  32. 32. Page 38© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Visualizing the Balance of Power across Target Segments
  33. 33. Deeper Dive into IoT
  34. 34. Page 40© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Internet of Things continues to Drive Significant Social Buzz IBM Pledges $3 billion to IoT Center
  35. 35. Page 41© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute IoT Attracts More Attention than Home Automation
  36. 36. Page 42© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Wearables, driven only partially by Apple Watch Attract more Attention than IoT
  37. 37. Page 43© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Even within IoT, Wearables drives more attention than Big Data
  38. 38. Page 44© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Iot Means Many Things But Mainly Internet Of Things
  39. 39. Page 45© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Industrial Internet is Getting the Most Attention Within IoT
  40. 40. Page 46© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Security Concerns Trump Privacy Most Always
  41. 41. Page 47© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Within IoT Manufacturing and Logistics Buzz is Limited Significant discussion on privacy and security related to manufacturing at US government level
  42. 42. Page 48© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Bluetooth and WiFi dominate IoT discussions ZigBee and Zwave fail to grab any attention
  43. 43. Page 49© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Mind the Gap between Devices and Apps
  44. 44. Page 50© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Smart Home App Experience As As Varied As The Brands That Make Them
  45. 45. Page 51© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute MSO Are Slowly Losing Ground With Consumers Based On App Experience Size of bubble represents number of consumer App Reviews (with text) per day Delight Scale based on Consumer Star Ratings, most accurate public metric of success Data gather regularly from Apple, Google, Amazon and Windows App Stores Slow decay over time is normal for brands that have not refreshed their user experience
  46. 46. Page 52© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Though Falling, MSO’s Are Outperforming Almost Everyone Else, Even Nest! MSO’s Dominate Category in Early 2015 Vivint moves from 3rd to 1st place in hearts of consumers. Alarm.com consistently delivers on promised experience ADT offers a disappointing Smart Home Experience
  47. 47. Page 53© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute MSO’s Beat Out AT&T Across Many Aspects of the App Experience MSO’s offer a more usable an stable app experience compared to AT& Red Illustrates % Of Reviews With Negative Views On Topic, Green Is Positive And Gray Is Neutral AT&T Consumers suffer through poorly crafted and sluggish experience
  48. 48. Please contact us if you’d like to know more! http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights 1-877-992-7487 sales@argusinsights.com

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