Big Lies and Small Truths About Big Data

John Feland
John FelandData Whisperer and Design Thinker
Big Lies and Small Truths
Tales from an Accidental Big Data Scientist
Share of mind leads share of market
What Marketing Wants
Share of mind leads share of market
What IT Perceives
Share of mind leads share of market
What Consumers Fear
Page 5© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Big Data Process In a Nutshell
COLLECT REPORTANALYZE TAKE
ACTION
Page 6© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Where is the Data From?
• Owned
• Purchased
• Created
Page 7© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
What Is The Data About? People
Page 8© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
What is the Data About? Things
Share of mind leads share of market
at Is The Data About? Things About People
Page 10© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Big Lie #1
“It will take millions
of dollars and a huge
Hadoop cluster to
prove the utility of
BIG DATA”
Page 11© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
AvgAI
SIP.MLE
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
1
3
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2
4
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Phrase.Count
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Start Small and Scale As Needed…
Page 12© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Big Lie #2
“Once we have the
data actionable
insights will start
raining from the sky”
Page 13© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced
Page 14© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Need Technologist and Subject Matter Experts
Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced
Page 15© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Big Lie #3
“Petabytes of data Plus statistical
significance values of 0.00001
equals respect in the board room”
Or
“If you process it, they will
come”
Page 16© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Small Truth #3
• Report in the language of the decision maker
• Empathy in report is critical to enable action
Page 17© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Big Lie #4
“If we measure
everything we will be
measuring the right
things”
Page 18© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
“Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this
market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on the
industry”
Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg
“The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental
structure or challenges of the mobile industry”
Charles Golvin – Forrester Research
“The iPhone is a niche product”
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008
Page 19© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
“If you can not measure it,
you can not improve it.”
Lord Kelvin
Page 20© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Others predict based on what consumers bought,
Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2
2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013
MillionsofiPhones;BillionsofdollarsinRevenue
BuzzVolumeforiPhoneModels
Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for
Q2 2013 iPhone Sales
Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 3GS
Apple iPhone 3G Apple iPhone Quarterly iPhone Sales
Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc.
Consensus
Morgan Stanley
Argus Insights
Estimate Based onApple’s Actual Q2
iPhone Unit Volume
Page 22© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Argus Insights Proprietary Metrics Are Proven Predictors of
Consumer Demand
3-Feb-13 23-Mar-13 23-Apr-13 23-May-13 23-Jun-13 23-Jul-13 23-Aug-13 23-Sep-13 23-Oct-13 23-Nov-13
Mapping Handset Consumer Buzz Metrics to Actual Handset Sales
Actual Sales/Returns for Specific Handset
Predicted Sales Using Argus Metrics from 8 weeks prior
Eight Weeks Predicting
Adjusted R2 = 87.8%
p-value = 4.547E-22
HandsetUnitSales/Returns
Using only our consumer metrics and retail pricing, Argus Insights
was able to predict handset sales volume eight weeks into the
future for a major smartphone brand
What Are They Really Talking About?
Page 29© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Lots of chatter but few conversations
Nothing says “I love you” like a man’s armpit
wearing Old Spice inside of a tuxedo on a
battleship that has a mariachi band to serenade
you.
“Dear axe body spray, please out a suggested
serving size on your bottle. Sincerely, choking girls
everywhere.”
Page 30© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Behavior over Buzz
• Brand Story
– Traditional media
– Digital media
– Digital Advocacy
• Product Reality
– Mostly shared in
consumer reviews
– Proven leading
indicator of sales
performanc
Page 31© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
When Consumers engage reveals how to
engage…
• Different segments of consumers engage at
different times of the day
• Each segment has unique influences that shape
advocacy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
ConsumerTweetsfromDallas,NYC,
andSanJose
Lipstick Mentions By Valid Consumers (Normalized to EST)
What to
What to
Which What I saw!
Page 32© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Behaviors Swamp Brands, Consumers Drive
Content
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
SocialMentionsfrom
27Nov-2Dec2013
Comparing Lipstick Mention vs. Brand Social Mentions
General Lipstick
Mentions Occur 100
times more than
any major brand
Page 33© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
VS
Page 34© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Humankind has been fascinated for centuries!
Page 35© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Tracking Target Segments since Oct 2012 in Twitter
Walking Dead Premiere
Vampire Diaries
Premiere
Zombie Chatter is steadily 2X that of Vampire ChatterZombies are gender balanced. Twice as many women mention vampires
Page 36© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Somewhere in suburban Georgia
Page 37© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Introducing the Zompire Index
• Needed a way to track the both targets
• Normalized for state populations to
understand relative strength of segment
• Since one target is larger than the other
needed a way to balance
Page 38© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Visualizing the Balance of Power across Target Segments
Deeper Dive into IoT
Page 40© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Internet of Things continues to Drive Significant Social Buzz
IBM Pledges $3 billion to
IoT Center
Page 41© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
IoT Attracts More Attention than Home Automation
Page 42© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Wearables, driven only partially by Apple Watch Attract more
Attention than IoT
Page 43© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Even within IoT, Wearables drives more attention than Big
Data
Page 44© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Iot Means Many Things But Mainly Internet Of Things
Page 45© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Industrial Internet is Getting the Most Attention Within IoT
Page 46© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Security Concerns Trump Privacy Most Always
Page 47© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Within IoT Manufacturing and Logistics Buzz is Limited
Significant discussion on
privacy and security related to
manufacturing at US
government level
Page 48© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Bluetooth and WiFi dominate IoT discussions
ZigBee and Zwave fail to
grab any attention
Page 49© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Mind the Gap between Devices and Apps
Page 50© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Smart Home App Experience As As Varied As The Brands
That Make Them
Page 51© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
MSO Are Slowly Losing Ground With Consumers Based On
App Experience
Size of bubble represents
number of consumer App
Reviews (with text) per day
Delight Scale based on Consumer
Star Ratings, most accurate public
metric of success
Data gather regularly from Apple, Google,
Amazon and Windows App Stores
Slow decay over time is normal for brands
that have not refreshed their user experience
Page 52© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Though Falling, MSO’s Are Outperforming Almost Everyone Else,
Even Nest!
MSO’s Dominate Category in Early 2015
Vivint moves from 3rd to 1st place in hearts of consumers.
Alarm.com consistently delivers
on promised experience
ADT offers a disappointing Smart
Home Experience
Page 53© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
MSO’s Beat Out AT&T Across Many Aspects of the App
Experience
MSO’s offer a
more usable an
stable app
experience
compared to AT&
Red Illustrates % Of Reviews With Negative Views On Topic, Green Is Positive And Gray Is Neutral
AT&T Consumers
suffer through
poorly crafted and
sluggish
experience
Please contact us if you’d like to know more!
http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights
1-877-992-7487 sales@argusinsights.com
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Big Lies and Small Truths About Big Data

  • 1. Big Lies and Small Truths Tales from an Accidental Big Data Scientist
  • 2. Share of mind leads share of market What Marketing Wants
  • 3. Share of mind leads share of market What IT Perceives
  • 4. Share of mind leads share of market What Consumers Fear
  • 5. Page 5© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Data Process In a Nutshell COLLECT REPORTANALYZE TAKE ACTION
  • 6. Page 6© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Where is the Data From? • Owned • Purchased • Created
  • 7. Page 7© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute What Is The Data About? People
  • 8. Page 8© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute What is the Data About? Things
  • 9. Share of mind leads share of market at Is The Data About? Things About People
  • 10. Page 10© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Lie #1 “It will take millions of dollars and a huge Hadoop cluster to prove the utility of BIG DATA”
  • 11. Page 11© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute AvgAI SIP.MLE -40 -30 -20 -10 0 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 1 3 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 2 4 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 Phrase.Count 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Start Small and Scale As Needed…
  • 12. Page 12© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Lie #2 “Once we have the data actionable insights will start raining from the sky”
  • 13. Page 13© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced
  • 14. Page 14© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Need Technologist and Subject Matter Experts Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced
  • 15. Page 15© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Lie #3 “Petabytes of data Plus statistical significance values of 0.00001 equals respect in the board room” Or “If you process it, they will come”
  • 16. Page 16© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Small Truth #3 • Report in the language of the decision maker • Empathy in report is critical to enable action
  • 17. Page 17© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Big Lie #4 “If we measure everything we will be measuring the right things”
  • 18. Page 18© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute “Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on the industry” Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg “The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure or challenges of the mobile industry” Charles Golvin – Forrester Research “The iPhone is a niche product” Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008
  • 19. Page 19© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute “If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.” Lord Kelvin
  • 20. Page 20© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Others predict based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 MillionsofiPhones;BillionsofdollarsinRevenue BuzzVolumeforiPhoneModels Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for Q2 2013 iPhone Sales Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 3GS Apple iPhone 3G Apple iPhone Quarterly iPhone Sales Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Consensus Morgan Stanley Argus Insights Estimate Based onApple’s Actual Q2 iPhone Unit Volume
  • 21. Page 22© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Argus Insights Proprietary Metrics Are Proven Predictors of Consumer Demand 3-Feb-13 23-Mar-13 23-Apr-13 23-May-13 23-Jun-13 23-Jul-13 23-Aug-13 23-Sep-13 23-Oct-13 23-Nov-13 Mapping Handset Consumer Buzz Metrics to Actual Handset Sales Actual Sales/Returns for Specific Handset Predicted Sales Using Argus Metrics from 8 weeks prior Eight Weeks Predicting Adjusted R2 = 87.8% p-value = 4.547E-22 HandsetUnitSales/Returns Using only our consumer metrics and retail pricing, Argus Insights was able to predict handset sales volume eight weeks into the future for a major smartphone brand
  • 22. What Are They Really Talking About?
  • 23. Page 29© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Lots of chatter but few conversations Nothing says “I love you” like a man’s armpit wearing Old Spice inside of a tuxedo on a battleship that has a mariachi band to serenade you. “Dear axe body spray, please out a suggested serving size on your bottle. Sincerely, choking girls everywhere.”
  • 24. Page 30© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Behavior over Buzz • Brand Story – Traditional media – Digital media – Digital Advocacy • Product Reality – Mostly shared in consumer reviews – Proven leading indicator of sales performanc
  • 25. Page 31© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute When Consumers engage reveals how to engage… • Different segments of consumers engage at different times of the day • Each segment has unique influences that shape advocacy 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ConsumerTweetsfromDallas,NYC, andSanJose Lipstick Mentions By Valid Consumers (Normalized to EST) What to What to Which What I saw!
  • 26. Page 32© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Behaviors Swamp Brands, Consumers Drive Content 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 SocialMentionsfrom 27Nov-2Dec2013 Comparing Lipstick Mention vs. Brand Social Mentions General Lipstick Mentions Occur 100 times more than any major brand
  • 27. Page 33© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute VS
  • 28. Page 34© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Humankind has been fascinated for centuries!
  • 29. Page 35© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Tracking Target Segments since Oct 2012 in Twitter Walking Dead Premiere Vampire Diaries Premiere Zombie Chatter is steadily 2X that of Vampire ChatterZombies are gender balanced. Twice as many women mention vampires
  • 30. Page 36© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Somewhere in suburban Georgia
  • 31. Page 37© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Introducing the Zompire Index • Needed a way to track the both targets • Normalized for state populations to understand relative strength of segment • Since one target is larger than the other needed a way to balance
  • 32. Page 38© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Visualizing the Balance of Power across Target Segments
  • 34. Page 40© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Internet of Things continues to Drive Significant Social Buzz IBM Pledges $3 billion to IoT Center
  • 35. Page 41© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute IoT Attracts More Attention than Home Automation
  • 36. Page 42© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Wearables, driven only partially by Apple Watch Attract more Attention than IoT
  • 37. Page 43© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Even within IoT, Wearables drives more attention than Big Data
  • 38. Page 44© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Iot Means Many Things But Mainly Internet Of Things
  • 39. Page 45© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Industrial Internet is Getting the Most Attention Within IoT
  • 40. Page 46© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Security Concerns Trump Privacy Most Always
  • 41. Page 47© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Within IoT Manufacturing and Logistics Buzz is Limited Significant discussion on privacy and security related to manufacturing at US government level
  • 42. Page 48© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Bluetooth and WiFi dominate IoT discussions ZigBee and Zwave fail to grab any attention
  • 43. Page 49© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Mind the Gap between Devices and Apps
  • 44. Page 50© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Smart Home App Experience As As Varied As The Brands That Make Them
  • 45. Page 51© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute MSO Are Slowly Losing Ground With Consumers Based On App Experience Size of bubble represents number of consumer App Reviews (with text) per day Delight Scale based on Consumer Star Ratings, most accurate public metric of success Data gather regularly from Apple, Google, Amazon and Windows App Stores Slow decay over time is normal for brands that have not refreshed their user experience
  • 46. Page 52© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Though Falling, MSO’s Are Outperforming Almost Everyone Else, Even Nest! MSO’s Dominate Category in Early 2015 Vivint moves from 3rd to 1st place in hearts of consumers. Alarm.com consistently delivers on promised experience ADT offers a disappointing Smart Home Experience
  • 47. Page 53© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute MSO’s Beat Out AT&T Across Many Aspects of the App Experience MSO’s offer a more usable an stable app experience compared to AT& Red Illustrates % Of Reviews With Negative Views On Topic, Green Is Positive And Gray Is Neutral AT&T Consumers suffer through poorly crafted and sluggish experience
  • 48. Please contact us if you’d like to know more! http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights 1-877-992-7487 sales@argusinsights.com

Editor's Notes

  1. Big Lies and Small Truths: Tales from the Accidental Big Data Scientist Speaker: John Feland, Ph.D., Argus Insights We have reached a stage in the evolution of Big Data where collecting and accessing tremendous amounts of data has moved from challenging to mundane. The next challenge will be in turning these storehouses into analytical work horses for businesses in a variety of marketplaces. In this talk, Dr. John Feland will describe the lessons he learned from deployments of predictive analytics in Digital Marketing and the Internet of Things. John will also share how he accidentally founded a Big Data company, what he has learned along the way to separate the hype from the useful, and where he postulates that Big Data could take us. John Feland, Ph.D., is the founder and CEO of Argus Insights, a leader in Experience Analytics that was started in 2009 to answer the question "How can traditional market research be improved and help drive innovation instead of validation?" John has taught Design and Innovation at Stanford University, and he led the team that created the first working Multi-Touch Smartphone prototype six months before the iPhone was announced. Driven by his deep experience in the Consumer Electronics value chain and human center design, John has built an enterprise focused on helping clients uncover unfair methods of competing by delighting customers.
  2. Snapshot from brazil? Being washed away by paper work? Minority report? Enemy of the state?
  3. Depends on the goal Prototype First Anything done well with Hadoop can be done poorly and cheaply by something else
  4. Medical clinic from
  5. iPhone, Nokia logos Quotes from industry pundits about iPhone
  6. Social sampling shows Lipstick brand conversations occupy less than 1% of consumer lipstick mentions Out of brand social analysis can reveal emerging trends, influencers, and new competitors
  7. 10% of total mentions Filters constructed to focus not on brands, shows, movies but pure mentions of vampires and zombies Vampires 476596 tweets Zombies 715615 tweets
  8. 1897 Dracula 2009 P,P and Z Twilight 2005