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Do Consumers Want a New
4(01)K Display?
“Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this
market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark
on the industry”
Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg

“The iPhone is a niche product”
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008

“The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental
structure or challenges of the mobile industry”
Charles Golvin – ForresterArgus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
© 2013 Research

Page 2
“If you can not measure
it, you can not improve it.”
Lord Kelvin

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 3
Measuring the Gap Between Brand Promise and Consumer
Reality

© 2012 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 4
Consumer Review Derived Demand Metrics Are Effective Leading Indicators

WorldWide Monthly Sales
Millions

Comparing NPD Actual Sales to Argus Insights Predictions
$4,500
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$-

$ NPD Sold Actual
Predicted Using Argus Insights Metrics

• Delight and Buzz are affective leading indicators of consumer demand
• Traditional sales forecasts are based on what consumers bought, Argus
Insights metrics track what consumer enjoyed
• Has been used to find disruptive products and brands
• Efficacy tested across Smartphones, Tablets, Automobiles, Televisions and
more
2

Adjusted R of 72.4% and a p-value of 0.0017

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 5
Others predict based on what consumers bought,
Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love

7000

Argus Insights 60
Estimate Based

Apple’s Actual Q2
iPhone Unit Volume

6000

50

5000

40

4000
30

3000

Morgan Stanley
20

2000
1000

10

Consensus

0

0
Qtr1

Qtr2

Qtr3

Qtr4

Qtr1

Qtr2

Qtr3

Qtr4

Qtr1

Qtr2

2011

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc.

Apple iPhone 4

Apple iPhone 4S

Apple iPhone 5

Apple iPhone 3GS

Apple iPhone 3G

Millions of iPhones; Billions of dollars in
Revenue

Buzz Volume for iPhone Models

Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for
Q2 2013 iPhone Sales

Apple iPhone

Quarterly iPhone Sales
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 6
High Performance Displays
Consumers First Introduction to High Performance Displays…

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 8
Results of iPhone 5S and 5C launch
AKA “We miss Steve!”

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 9
Samsung and Apple Consumers Held Their Breath Before the iPhone
Launch
1
0.68

Apple

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
14

19

24

29

34

Week Number

1

0.63

Samsung

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
14

19

24

29

34

Week Number
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 10
Other Handset Customers Barely Skipped A Beat
HTC

1

0.55

0.5
0
14

19

24

29

34

LG

1
0.5
0.43

0

Motorola

14

24

29

34

1

0.55

0.5
0
14

Nokia

19

19

24

29

34

1
0.5
0.51

0
14

19

24
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

29

34
Page 11
Less surprises equals less buzz

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 12
iPhone 5S and 5C Are Slow To Accelerate

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 13
Lowest iPhone Demand at Launch In A Long Time

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 14
What’s so Ultra About 4K?
Remember When?

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 16
But at CES 2013, 4K was the New 3D TV

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 17
How is 4K Adoption By Consumers Looking?

Reported Consumer Delight Levels (-1 to 1)

Comparison Across Display Products
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5

0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Calendar Month 2013
1080p

2160p (4K)

IPS

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 18

12
4K Early Adopters Are Few But Delighted
Reported Consumer Delight Levels (-1 to 1)

4K Televisions Are Delighting Consumers
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Calendar Month 2013

2160p (4K)
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 19

12
Overall Perceptions of HPD User Experience
HD TV (1080p)
-20%

0%

20%

4K Televisions
40%

60%

-10%0%10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%

IPS Monitors
-20%

Product Passion

Product Passion

Price / Value
Usability

Usability

Style/Design

Style/Design

Style/Design

Movies

Movies

Movies

Sony

Sony

Sony

Display/Screen/Graphics

Display/Screen/Graphics

Display/Screen/Graphics

Size/Weight

Size/Weight

Size/Weight

Picture/Video Quality

Picture/Video Quality

Picture/Video Quality

Functionality

Functionality

Functionality

Reliability

Reliability

Reliability

Speed/Performance

Speed/Performance

Speed/Performance

Features

Features

Features

Sound Quality

Sound Quality

Sound Quality

Phone Support

Phone Support

Phone Support

Home

Home

Home

Samsung

Samsung

Samsung

Gaming

Gaming

Gaming

Best Buy

Best Buy

Best Buy

News/Weather/Sports

News/Weather/Sports

40%

Price / Value

Usability

20%

Product Passion

Price / Value

0%

News/Weather/Sports

Neg %

Pos %

Neg %

Pos %

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Neg %

Pos %

Page 20

60%
How Usage Differs Across Displays
HD TV (1080p)
-4%

1%

6%

4K Televisions
11%

16%

-2%

3%

8%

IPS Monitors
13%

-2%

Movies

Movies
Home
Gaming

Gaming

News/Weather/Sports

News/Weather/Sports

News/Weather/Sports

Web Surfing

Web Surfing

Web Surfing

Significant Other

Significant Other

Significant Other

Family

Family

Family

Sit

Sit

Sit

Friends

Friends

Friends

Bedroom

Bedroom

Bedroom

Outside

Outside

Outside

School

School

13%

Home

Gaming

8%

Movies

Home

3%

School

Neg %

Pos %

Neg %

Pos %

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Neg %

Pos %

Page 21
Please contact us if you’d like to know more!

http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights
1-877-992-7487 sales@argusinsights.com

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Do Consumers Want High Performance Displays?

  • 1. Do Consumers Want a New 4(01)K Display?
  • 2. “Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on the industry” Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg “The iPhone is a niche product” Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008 “The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure or challenges of the mobile industry” Charles Golvin – ForresterArgus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute © 2013 Research Page 2
  • 3. “If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.” Lord Kelvin © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 3
  • 4. Measuring the Gap Between Brand Promise and Consumer Reality © 2012 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 4
  • 5. Consumer Review Derived Demand Metrics Are Effective Leading Indicators WorldWide Monthly Sales Millions Comparing NPD Actual Sales to Argus Insights Predictions $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- $ NPD Sold Actual Predicted Using Argus Insights Metrics • Delight and Buzz are affective leading indicators of consumer demand • Traditional sales forecasts are based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights metrics track what consumer enjoyed • Has been used to find disruptive products and brands • Efficacy tested across Smartphones, Tablets, Automobiles, Televisions and more 2 Adjusted R of 72.4% and a p-value of 0.0017 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 5
  • 6. Others predict based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love 7000 Argus Insights 60 Estimate Based Apple’s Actual Q2 iPhone Unit Volume 6000 50 5000 40 4000 30 3000 Morgan Stanley 20 2000 1000 10 Consensus 0 0 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 3GS Apple iPhone 3G Millions of iPhones; Billions of dollars in Revenue Buzz Volume for iPhone Models Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for Q2 2013 iPhone Sales Apple iPhone Quarterly iPhone Sales © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 6
  • 8. Consumers First Introduction to High Performance Displays… © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 8
  • 9. Results of iPhone 5S and 5C launch AKA “We miss Steve!” © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 9
  • 10. Samsung and Apple Consumers Held Their Breath Before the iPhone Launch 1 0.68 Apple 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 14 19 24 29 34 Week Number 1 0.63 Samsung 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 14 19 24 29 34 Week Number © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 10
  • 11. Other Handset Customers Barely Skipped A Beat HTC 1 0.55 0.5 0 14 19 24 29 34 LG 1 0.5 0.43 0 Motorola 14 24 29 34 1 0.55 0.5 0 14 Nokia 19 19 24 29 34 1 0.5 0.51 0 14 19 24 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 29 34 Page 11
  • 12. Less surprises equals less buzz © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 12
  • 13. iPhone 5S and 5C Are Slow To Accelerate © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 13
  • 14. Lowest iPhone Demand at Launch In A Long Time © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 14
  • 15. What’s so Ultra About 4K?
  • 16. Remember When? © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 16
  • 17. But at CES 2013, 4K was the New 3D TV © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 17
  • 18. How is 4K Adoption By Consumers Looking? Reported Consumer Delight Levels (-1 to 1) Comparison Across Display Products 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Calendar Month 2013 1080p 2160p (4K) IPS © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 18 12
  • 19. 4K Early Adopters Are Few But Delighted Reported Consumer Delight Levels (-1 to 1) 4K Televisions Are Delighting Consumers 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Calendar Month 2013 2160p (4K) © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 19 12
  • 20. Overall Perceptions of HPD User Experience HD TV (1080p) -20% 0% 20% 4K Televisions 40% 60% -10%0%10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% IPS Monitors -20% Product Passion Product Passion Price / Value Usability Usability Style/Design Style/Design Style/Design Movies Movies Movies Sony Sony Sony Display/Screen/Graphics Display/Screen/Graphics Display/Screen/Graphics Size/Weight Size/Weight Size/Weight Picture/Video Quality Picture/Video Quality Picture/Video Quality Functionality Functionality Functionality Reliability Reliability Reliability Speed/Performance Speed/Performance Speed/Performance Features Features Features Sound Quality Sound Quality Sound Quality Phone Support Phone Support Phone Support Home Home Home Samsung Samsung Samsung Gaming Gaming Gaming Best Buy Best Buy Best Buy News/Weather/Sports News/Weather/Sports 40% Price / Value Usability 20% Product Passion Price / Value 0% News/Weather/Sports Neg % Pos % Neg % Pos % © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Neg % Pos % Page 20 60%
  • 21. How Usage Differs Across Displays HD TV (1080p) -4% 1% 6% 4K Televisions 11% 16% -2% 3% 8% IPS Monitors 13% -2% Movies Movies Home Gaming Gaming News/Weather/Sports News/Weather/Sports News/Weather/Sports Web Surfing Web Surfing Web Surfing Significant Other Significant Other Significant Other Family Family Family Sit Sit Sit Friends Friends Friends Bedroom Bedroom Bedroom Outside Outside Outside School School 13% Home Gaming 8% Movies Home 3% School Neg % Pos % Neg % Pos % © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Neg % Pos % Page 21
  • 22. Please contact us if you’d like to know more! http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights 1-877-992-7487 sales@argusinsights.com

Editor's Notes

  1. iPhone, Nokia logosQuotes from industry pundits about iPhone