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Brand Blindness Brainweave
Dr. John Feland, CEO

Digital Marketing Exchange, 22 Sep 2013
“Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this
market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark
on the industry”
Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg

“The iPhone is a niche product”
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008

“The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental
structure or challenges of the mobile industry”
Charles Golvin – Forrester Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
© 2013 Argus Research

Page 2
“If you can not measure it,
you can not improve it.”
Lord Kelvin

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 3
Others predict based on what consumers bought,
Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love

7000

Argus Insights 60
Estimate Based

Apple’s Actual Q2
iPhone Unit Volume

6000

50

5000

40

4000
30

3000

Morgan Stanley
20

2000
1000

10

Consensus

0

0
Qtr1

Qtr2

Qtr3

Qtr4

Qtr1

Qtr2

Qtr3

Qtr4

Qtr1

Qtr2

2011

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

2013

2013

Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc.

Apple iPhone 4

Apple iPhone 4S

Apple iPhone 5

Apple iPhone 3GS

Apple iPhone 3G

Millions of iPhones; Billions of dollars in
Revenue

Buzz Volume for iPhone Models

Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for
Q2 2013 iPhone Sales

Apple iPhone

Quarterly iPhone Sales
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 4
Measuring the Gap Between Brand Promise and Consumer
Reality

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 5
Brand Blindess…
Photo from www.flickr.com/photos/ joaomiguelsilva/

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 7
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 8
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 9
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 10
• Wrong Target?
• Wrong Channel?
• Wrong Message?
• Wrong Product?

• Plain Arrogance!
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 11
Missing the Point
Can you spot the Brand Blindness?

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 13
Consumer Participation: Web Comic Campaign

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 14
Anarchy Graphic Novel, an ongoing real-time web comic campaign, is not
being echoed in social media.

Percentage of Tweets (line graph)

0.9%

Total Tweets

Anarchy Graphic novel

Anarchy Mentions

Peak of Graphic Novel
Engagement

0.8%
0.7%
0.6%

6000

5000

4000

Peak of Anarchy mentions are on average less than half of the Web Comic Campaign

0.5%

3000

0.4%
0.3%

Tweets per day (bar graph)

1.0%

Peak of Anarchy Mentions

0.2%

2000

1000

0.1%
0.0%

0

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 15
“Dear axe body
spray, please out
a suggested
serving size on
your bottle.
Sincerely, chokin
g girls
everywhere.”

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 16
Skynet is Here,
Humans are Under Rated
Bot or Not: Problem of Machine to Machine Social

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 18
Across Both Segments Of Undead Even More Telling

15% of
Brand Related
Tweets Proven
Bots
© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 19
False sense of insecurity
Apple’s Falling Mindshare a Symptom of Brand Blindness?

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 21
iPhone 5S launch Draws Half The Attention of 5
“Where’s the Kaboom?”
Consumers looking for the
big idea were disappointed.

900000
800000

Mentions per hour

700000

Peak is lower than
iPhone 5 launch.
Less of the market is
interested in Apple.

iPhone4s

600000
iPhone5
500000
400000
300000
200000

iPhone5S&C

And continue
to share their
disappointment

Pre Launch Leaks
drive social chatter
higher

100000
0
-24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
2
4
6
Hours before and after Apple iPhone launch Event

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

8

10

12

Page 22
Tracking Apple Related Tweets in Silicon Valley
Apple mentions as % of Silicon Valley Tweets
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%

12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
17 19 21 23 1
9/8/13

3

5

7

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 1

9/9/13

9/9/13

3

5

7

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 1

9/10/13

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

9/10/13

3

5

7

9 11 13 15

9/11/13

Page 23
Silicon Valley Twitter Users Most Active at Night
10% of Silicon Valley Tweets
1600

1400

Apple
Launch

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
17 19 21 23
9/8/13

1

3

5

7

9

9/9/13

11 13 15 17 19 21 23
9/9/13

1

3

5

7

9

11 13 15 17 19 21 23

9/10/13

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

9/10/13

1

3

5

7

9

11 13 15

9/11/13

Page 24
What Else Are Consumers Engaging With If Not Apple?
Silicon Valley Tweets 8-11 Sept 2013

Apple Specific Tweets 8-11 Sept 2013

© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 25
Your Turn!

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Brand Blindness: Causes and Cures

  • 1. Brand Blindness Brainweave Dr. John Feland, CEO Digital Marketing Exchange, 22 Sep 2013
  • 2. “Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on the industry” Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg “The iPhone is a niche product” Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008 “The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure or challenges of the mobile industry” Charles Golvin – Forrester Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute © 2013 Argus Research Page 2
  • 3. “If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.” Lord Kelvin © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 3
  • 4. Others predict based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love 7000 Argus Insights 60 Estimate Based Apple’s Actual Q2 iPhone Unit Volume 6000 50 5000 40 4000 30 3000 Morgan Stanley 20 2000 1000 10 Consensus 0 0 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 3GS Apple iPhone 3G Millions of iPhones; Billions of dollars in Revenue Buzz Volume for iPhone Models Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for Q2 2013 iPhone Sales Apple iPhone Quarterly iPhone Sales © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 4
  • 5. Measuring the Gap Between Brand Promise and Consumer Reality © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 5
  • 7. Photo from www.flickr.com/photos/ joaomiguelsilva/ © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 7
  • 8. © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 8
  • 9. © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 9
  • 10. © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 10
  • 11. • Wrong Target? • Wrong Channel? • Wrong Message? • Wrong Product? • Plain Arrogance! © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 11
  • 13. Can you spot the Brand Blindness? © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 13
  • 14. Consumer Participation: Web Comic Campaign © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 14
  • 15. Anarchy Graphic Novel, an ongoing real-time web comic campaign, is not being echoed in social media. Percentage of Tweets (line graph) 0.9% Total Tweets Anarchy Graphic novel Anarchy Mentions Peak of Graphic Novel Engagement 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 6000 5000 4000 Peak of Anarchy mentions are on average less than half of the Web Comic Campaign 0.5% 3000 0.4% 0.3% Tweets per day (bar graph) 1.0% Peak of Anarchy Mentions 0.2% 2000 1000 0.1% 0.0% 0 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 15
  • 16. “Dear axe body spray, please out a suggested serving size on your bottle. Sincerely, chokin g girls everywhere.” © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 16
  • 17. Skynet is Here, Humans are Under Rated
  • 18. Bot or Not: Problem of Machine to Machine Social © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 18
  • 19. Across Both Segments Of Undead Even More Telling 15% of Brand Related Tweets Proven Bots © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 19
  • 20. False sense of insecurity
  • 21. Apple’s Falling Mindshare a Symptom of Brand Blindness? © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 21
  • 22. iPhone 5S launch Draws Half The Attention of 5 “Where’s the Kaboom?” Consumers looking for the big idea were disappointed. 900000 800000 Mentions per hour 700000 Peak is lower than iPhone 5 launch. Less of the market is interested in Apple. iPhone4s 600000 iPhone5 500000 400000 300000 200000 iPhone5S&C And continue to share their disappointment Pre Launch Leaks drive social chatter higher 100000 0 -24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Hours before and after Apple iPhone launch Event © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 8 10 12 Page 22
  • 23. Tracking Apple Related Tweets in Silicon Valley Apple mentions as % of Silicon Valley Tweets 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 17 19 21 23 1 9/8/13 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 1 9/9/13 9/9/13 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 1 9/10/13 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 9/10/13 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 9/11/13 Page 23
  • 24. Silicon Valley Twitter Users Most Active at Night 10% of Silicon Valley Tweets 1600 1400 Apple Launch 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 17 19 21 23 9/8/13 1 3 5 7 9 9/9/13 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 9/9/13 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 9/10/13 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 9/10/13 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 9/11/13 Page 24
  • 25. What Else Are Consumers Engaging With If Not Apple? Silicon Valley Tweets 8-11 Sept 2013 Apple Specific Tweets 8-11 Sept 2013 © 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 25

Editor's Notes

  1. iPhone, Nokia logosQuotes from industry pundits about iPhone