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State of the Smartphone Battlefield
or
Has the iPhone Jumped the Shark?
2 May 2013
Page 2© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Jumping the Shark - a term to describe a moment
when something that was once great has reached a
point where it will now decline in quality and popularity.
Page 3© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
How Argus Insights measures market performance (Apple iPhones)
0.69
0.7
0.71
0.72
0.73
0.74
0.75
11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09
ConsumerReportedDelight(-1to1)
Market falls out
of love with
iPhone 4S
Size of Bubble is
level of buzz
Almost half of
Apple buzz is 4S.
5 fails to delight
as much
Page 4© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Broken out by brand…
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09
ConsumerReportedDelight(-1to1)
Apple LG Samsung HTC Motorola Nokia RIM
Page 5© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
But Many Brands Are Offering Multiple Operating Systems
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09
android iOS blackberry other windows
Page 6© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Not All Handsets Are Created Equal
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09
Apple iPhone 5 Samsung Galaxy S III Samsung Galaxy Note® II
BlackBerry Z10 Droid Razr Maxx HTC One X
HTC Window Phone 8X Nokia Lumia 920 Apple iPhone 4S
Page 7© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Great But What Is The Market Talking About?
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
iPhone 5
% of consumes
saying positive
things
% of consumes
saying negative
things
Allows comparison to
other experiences
Sorted by how
Page 8© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Z10 Shows BlackBerry is Back with a Vengeance
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
iPhone 5
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
BlackBerry Z10
Page 9© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Windows 8 Phone Also Giving Apple Grief
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
iPhone 5
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
Lumia 920
Page 10© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
Samsung continues to challenge Apple the Most
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
iPhone 5
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65%
Speed/Performance
Quality/Reliability
Product Passion
Connectivity
Size/Weight
Battery
Apple
Connectivity
Display/Screen/Graphics
Apple
Operating System
Style/Design
Usability
Android
Apps
Operating System
Camera
3G/4G
Apps
Price / Value
Galaxy S3
Page 11© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Phone
Web Surfing
Music
Email
Movies
Gaming
Friends
Social Media
Significant Other
Family
Skype/Video…
Books
News/Weather/Spo…
Messaging
Work
Coworker
Laptop Substitute
Lumia 920
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Phone
Web Surfing
Music
Email
Movies
Gaming
Friends
Social Media
Significant Other
Family
Skype/Video…
Books
News/Weather/Spo…
Messaging
Work
Coworker
Laptop Substitute
Galaxy Note II
Usage Patterns Also Shift Across Leading Handsets
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Phone
Web Surfing
Music
Email
Movies
Gaming
Friends
Social Media
Significant Other
Family
Skype/Video…
Books
News/Weather/Spo…
Messaging
Work
Coworker
Laptop Substitute
iPhone 5
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Phone
Web Surfing
Music
Email
Movies
Gaming
Friends
Social Media
Significant Other
Family
Skype/Video…
Books
News/Weather/Spo…
Messaging
Work
Coworker
Laptop Substitute
BlackBerry Z10
Page 12© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute
The iPhone has yet to jump the shark but is
practicing ski jumps…
• The iPhone 5 has not refreshed the view of Apple
• Discussion (and sales) of the 4S are as brisk as the 5
– A cheaper iPhone is as valuable an experience as the iPhone 5
– The iPhone 5 did not innovate the experience enough to shift
demand fully
• Apple is also reaching global saturation where
fragmentation of interests and experiences is beginning
– “Think different” is not longer Apple but Samsung, Nokia, and
BlackBerry
– Always on a quest to have something different than the
masses/your mom, young buyers are shifting away from iPhone
• iPhone is in danger of jumping the shark, the iPhone
6/mini might be that moment
Page 13© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

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Has the iPhone Jumped The Shark?

  • 1. State of the Smartphone Battlefield or Has the iPhone Jumped the Shark? 2 May 2013
  • 2. Page 2© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Jumping the Shark - a term to describe a moment when something that was once great has reached a point where it will now decline in quality and popularity.
  • 3. Page 3© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute How Argus Insights measures market performance (Apple iPhones) 0.69 0.7 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09 ConsumerReportedDelight(-1to1) Market falls out of love with iPhone 4S Size of Bubble is level of buzz Almost half of Apple buzz is 4S. 5 fails to delight as much
  • 4. Page 4© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Broken out by brand… 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09 ConsumerReportedDelight(-1to1) Apple LG Samsung HTC Motorola Nokia RIM
  • 5. Page 5© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute But Many Brands Are Offering Multiple Operating Systems 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09 android iOS blackberry other windows
  • 6. Page 6© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Not All Handsets Are Created Equal 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 11/14/07 2/22/08 6/1/08 9/9/08 12/18/08 3/28/09 Apple iPhone 5 Samsung Galaxy S III Samsung Galaxy Note® II BlackBerry Z10 Droid Razr Maxx HTC One X HTC Window Phone 8X Nokia Lumia 920 Apple iPhone 4S
  • 7. Page 7© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Great But What Is The Market Talking About? -15% 5% 25% 45% 65% Speed/Performance Quality/Reliability Product Passion Connectivity Size/Weight Battery Apple Connectivity Display/Screen/Graphics Apple Operating System Style/Design Usability Android Apps Operating System Camera 3G/4G Apps Price / Value iPhone 5 % of consumes saying positive things % of consumes saying negative things Allows comparison to other experiences Sorted by how
  • 8. Page 8© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Z10 Shows BlackBerry is Back with a Vengeance -15% 5% 25% 45% 65% Speed/Performance Quality/Reliability Product Passion Connectivity Size/Weight Battery Apple Connectivity Display/Screen/Graphics Apple Operating System Style/Design Usability Android Apps Operating System Camera 3G/4G Apps Price / Value iPhone 5 -15% 5% 25% 45% 65% Speed/Performance Quality/Reliability Product Passion Connectivity Size/Weight Battery Apple Connectivity Display/Screen/Graphics Apple Operating System Style/Design Usability Android Apps Operating System Camera 3G/4G Apps Price / Value BlackBerry Z10
  • 9. Page 9© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Windows 8 Phone Also Giving Apple Grief -15% 5% 25% 45% 65% Speed/Performance Quality/Reliability Product Passion Connectivity Size/Weight Battery Apple Connectivity Display/Screen/Graphics Apple Operating System Style/Design Usability Android Apps Operating System Camera 3G/4G Apps Price / Value iPhone 5 -15% 5% 25% 45% 65% Speed/Performance Quality/Reliability Product Passion Connectivity Size/Weight Battery Apple Connectivity Display/Screen/Graphics Apple Operating System Style/Design Usability Android Apps Operating System Camera 3G/4G Apps Price / Value Lumia 920
  • 10. Page 10© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Samsung continues to challenge Apple the Most -15% 5% 25% 45% 65% Speed/Performance Quality/Reliability Product Passion Connectivity Size/Weight Battery Apple Connectivity Display/Screen/Graphics Apple Operating System Style/Design Usability Android Apps Operating System Camera 3G/4G Apps Price / Value iPhone 5 -15% 5% 25% 45% 65% Speed/Performance Quality/Reliability Product Passion Connectivity Size/Weight Battery Apple Connectivity Display/Screen/Graphics Apple Operating System Style/Design Usability Android Apps Operating System Camera 3G/4G Apps Price / Value Galaxy S3
  • 11. Page 11© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute -5% 0% 5% 10% Phone Web Surfing Music Email Movies Gaming Friends Social Media Significant Other Family Skype/Video… Books News/Weather/Spo… Messaging Work Coworker Laptop Substitute Lumia 920 -5% 0% 5% 10% Phone Web Surfing Music Email Movies Gaming Friends Social Media Significant Other Family Skype/Video… Books News/Weather/Spo… Messaging Work Coworker Laptop Substitute Galaxy Note II Usage Patterns Also Shift Across Leading Handsets -5% 0% 5% 10% Phone Web Surfing Music Email Movies Gaming Friends Social Media Significant Other Family Skype/Video… Books News/Weather/Spo… Messaging Work Coworker Laptop Substitute iPhone 5 -5% 0% 5% 10% Phone Web Surfing Music Email Movies Gaming Friends Social Media Significant Other Family Skype/Video… Books News/Weather/Spo… Messaging Work Coworker Laptop Substitute BlackBerry Z10
  • 12. Page 12© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute The iPhone has yet to jump the shark but is practicing ski jumps… • The iPhone 5 has not refreshed the view of Apple • Discussion (and sales) of the 4S are as brisk as the 5 – A cheaper iPhone is as valuable an experience as the iPhone 5 – The iPhone 5 did not innovate the experience enough to shift demand fully • Apple is also reaching global saturation where fragmentation of interests and experiences is beginning – “Think different” is not longer Apple but Samsung, Nokia, and BlackBerry – Always on a quest to have something different than the masses/your mom, young buyers are shifting away from iPhone • iPhone is in danger of jumping the shark, the iPhone 6/mini might be that moment
  • 13. Page 13© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute